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Updated projected wins for each team

Posted Nov. 12 at 05:22 AM

More than half of the season is in the books, we’ve had a chance to see all of the teams, and we’ve got our first good educated guess of how things are going to shake out:

AFC Division winners:
Tennessee, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego. (Based on our calculations, the Chargers have a good chance to win the AFC West despite finishing with just an 8-8 record – with maybe two 9-7 teams not making the postseason).

AFC wild cards:
Indianapolis, New York. (The Jets – who just edge the Ravens – would open the playoffs at Pittsburgh, while the Colts would play at San Diego despite finishing with a better regular-season record).

NFC Division winners:
New York, Carolina, Arizona, Chicago.

NFC wild cards:
Tampa Bay, Washington. Washington would play at Arizona in the first round of the playoffs, while the Bucs would be at Chicago – again, despite finishing ahead of the Bears in the standings when tiebreakers are included (Tampa Bay won at Chicago earlier in the year).

Anyway, that’s how it looks right now. The Giants appear to be the league’s best teams. Sleeper teams to win it might be Carolina and Indianapolis.


PROJECTED WINS FOR EACH TEAM
Each team’s projected win total (out of 16 games) for the 2008 season, based on team’s current records, plus their likelihood of winning in each of their remaining seven games.
Rather than simply indentifying each game as a win or a loss, a probability is assigned to each of the remaining 112 games left in the regular season. If a game appears to be a 50-50 type game, we give each team half of a win. If a team has a 70 percent chance of victory, it gives .7 of a win, and so on.

  WinsTeam (current record)
  13.4  Tennessee (9-0)
  12.6  NY Giants (8-1)
  11.4  Carolina (7-2)
  11.1  New England (6-3)
  10.4  Pittsburgh (6-3)
  10.3  Indianapolis (5-4)
  10.2  Tampa Bay (6-3)
  10.1  Arizona (6-3)
  9.9  Washington (6-3)
  9.8  Atlanta (6-3)
  9.6  NY Jets (6-3)
  9.5  Baltimore (6-3)
  9.2  Dallas (5-4)
  9.0  Philadelphia (5-4)
  8.9  Buffalo (5-4)
  8.9  Chicago (5-4)
  8.8  Miami (5-4)
  8.7  Minnesota (5-4)
  8.3  Green Bay (4-5)
  8.1  San Diego (4-5)
  7.8  Denver (5-4)
  7.6  New Orleans (4-5)
  6.6  Jacksonville (4-5)
  6.2  Houston (3-6)
  4.8  Cleveland (3-6)
  4.5  Seattle (2-7)
  4.5  St. Louis (2-7)
  4.4  San Francisco (2-7)
  4.0  Kansas City (1-8)
  3.8  Oakland (2-7)
  3.0  Cincinnati (1-8)
  1.1  Detroit (0-9)

SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION
Probability of victory for each team in each game:

Arizona
  win  San Francisco (A)
  win  Miami (H)
  loss  Washington (A)
  loss  NY Jets (A)
  win  Buffalo (H)
  win  Dallas (H)
  loss  Carolina (A)
  win  St. Louis (A)
  win  San Francisco (H)
  55%  Seattle (A)
  40%  NY Giants (H)
  40%  Philadelphia (A)
  90%  St. Louis (H)
  65%  Minnesota (H)
  30%  New England (A)
  90%  Seattle (H)

Atlanta
  win  Detroit (H)
  loss  Tampa Bay (A)
  win  Kansas City (H)
  loss  Carolina (A)
  win  Green Bay (A)
  win  Chicago (H)
  loss  Philadelphia (A)
  win  Oakland (A)
  win  New Orleans (H)
  70%  Denver (H)
  53%  Carolina (H)
  40%  San Diego (A)
  43%  New Orleans (A)
  57%  Tampa Bay (H)
  35%  Minnesota (A)
  85%  St. Louis (H)

Baltimore
  win  Cincinnati (H)
  win  Cleveland (H)
  loss  Pittsburgh (A)
  loss  Tennessee (H)
  loss  Indianapolis (A)
  win  Miami (A)
  win  Oakland (H)
  win  Cleveland (A)
  win  Houston (A)
  10%  NY Giants (A)
  50%  Philadelphia (H)
  75%  Cincinnati (A)
  53%  Washington (H)
  50%  Pittsburgh (H)
  25%  Dallas (A)
  85%  Jacksonville (H)

Buffalo
  win  Seattle (H)
  win  Jacksonville (A)
  win  Oakland (H)
  win  St. Louis (A)
  loss  Arizona (A)
  win  San Diego (H)
  loss  Miami (A)
  loss  NY Jets (H)
  loss  New England (A)
  80%  Cleveland (H)
  55%  Kansas City (A)
  85%  San Francisco (H)
  55%  Miami (H)
  40%  NY Jets (A)
  45%  Denver (A)
  30%  New England (H)

Carolina
  win  San Diego (A)
  win  Chicago (H)
  loss  Minnesota (A)
  win  Atlanta (H)
  win  Kansas City (H)
  loss  Tampa Bay (A)
  win  New Orleans (H)
  win  Arizona (H)
  win  Oakland (A)
  98%  Detroit (H)
  47%  Atlanta (A)
  46%  Green Bay (A)
  75%  Tampa Bay (H)
  85%  Denver (H)
  35%  NY Giants (A)
  50%  New Orleans (A)

Chicago
  win  Indianapolis (A)
  loss  Carolina (A)
  loss  Tampa Bay (H)
  win  Philadelphia (H)
  win  Detroit (A)
  loss  Atlanta (A)
  win  Minnesota (H)
  win  Detroit (H)
  loss  Tennessee (H)
  42%  Green Bay (A)
  70%  St. Louis (A)
  40%  Minnesota (A)
  70%  Jacksonville (H)
  65%  New Orleans (H)
  55%  Green Bay (H)
  48%  Houston (A)

Cincinnati
  loss  Baltimore (A)
  loss  Tennessee (H)
  loss  NY Giants (A)
  loss  Cleveland (H)
  loss  Dallas (A)
  loss  NY Jets (A)
  loss  Pittsburgh (H)
  loss  Houston (A)
  win  Jacksonville (H)
  25%  Philadelphia (H)
  10%  Pittsburgh (A)
  25%  Baltimore (H)
  5%  Indianapolis (A)
  30%  Washington (H)
  42%  Cleveland (A)
  58%  Kansas City (H)

Cleveland
  loss  Dallas (H)
  loss  Pittsburgh (H)
  loss  Baltimore (A)
  win  Cincinnati (A)
  win  NY Giants (H)
  loss  Washington (A)
  win  Jacksonville (A)
  loss  Baltimore (H)
  loss  Denver (H)
  20%  Buffalo (A)
  53%  Houston (H)
  20%  Indianapolis (H)
  10%  Tennessee (A)
  10%  Philadelphia (A)
  58%  Cincinnati (H)
  10%  Pittsburgh (A)

Dallas
  win  Cleveland (A)
  win  Philadelphia (H)
  win  Green Bay (A)
  loss  Washington (H)
  win  Cincinnati (H)
  loss  Arizona (A)
  loss  St. Louis (A)
  win  Tampa Bay (H)
  loss  NY Giants (A)
  45%  Washington (A)
  85%  San Francisco (H)
  85%  Seattle (H)
  40%  Pittsburgh (A)
  42%  NY Giants (H)
  75%  Baltimore (H)
  44%  Philadelphia (A)

Denver
  win  Oakland (A)
  win  San Diego (H)
  win  New Orleans (H)
  loss  Kansas City (A)
  win  Tampa Bay (H)
  loss  Jacksonville (H)
  loss  New England (A)
  loss  Miami (H)
  win  Cleveland (A)
  30%  Atlanta (A)
  68%  Oakland (H)
  25%  NY Jets (A)
  75%  Kansas City (H)
  15%  Carolina (A)
  55%  Buffalo (H)
  15%  San Diego (A)

Detroit
  loss  Atlanta (A)
  loss  Green Bay (H)
  loss  San Francisco (A)
  loss  Chicago (H)
  loss  Minnesota (A)
  loss  Houston (A)
  loss  Washington (H)
  loss  Chicago (A)
  loss  Jacksonville (H)
  2%  Carolina (A)
  32%  Tampa Bay (H)
  15%  Tennessee (H)
  25%  Minnesota (H)
  1%  Indianapolis (A)
  28%  New Orleans (H)
  2%  Green Bay (A)

Green Bay
  win  Minnesota (H)
  win  Detroit (A)
  loss  Dallas (H)
  loss  Tampa Bay (A)
  loss  Atlanta (H)
  win  Seattle (A)
  win  Indianapolis (H)
  loss  Tennessee (A)
  loss  Minnesota (A)
  58%  Chicago (H)
  47%  New Orleans (A)
  54%  Carolina (H)
  70%  Houston (H)
  55%  Jacksonville (A)
  45%  Chicago (A)
  98%  Detroit (H)

Houston
  loss  Pittsburgh (A)
  loss  Tennessee (A)
  loss  Jacksonville (A)
  loss  Indianapolis (H)
  win  Miami (H)
  win  Detroit (H)
  win  Cincinnati (H)
  loss  Minnesota (A)
  loss  Baltimore (H)
  15%  Indianapolis (A)
  47%  Cleveland (A)
  65%  Jacksonville (H)
  30%  Green Bay (A)
  52%  Tennessee (H)
  60%  Oakland (A)
  52%  Chicago (H)

Indianapolis
  loss  Chicago (H)
  win  Minnesota (A)
  loss  Jacksonville (H)
  win  Houston (A)
  win  Baltimore (H)
  loss  Green Bay (A)
  loss  Tennessee (A)
  win  New England (H)
  win  Pittsburgh (A)
  85%  Houston (H)
  50%  San Diego (A)
  80%  Cleveland (A)
  95%  Cincinnati (H)
  99%  Detroit (H)
  60%  Jacksonville (A)
  65%  Tennessee (H)

Jacksonville
  loss  Tennessee (A)
  loss  Buffalo (H)
  win  Indianapolis (A)
  win  Houston (H)
  loss  Pittsburgh (H)
  win  Denver (A)
  loss  Cleveland (H)
  loss  Cincinnati (A)
  win  Detroit (A)
  43%  Tennessee (H)
  48%  Minnesota (H)
  35%  Houston (A)
  30%  Chicago (A)
  45%  Green Bay (H)
  40%  Indianapolis (H)
  15%  Baltimore (A)

Kansas City
  loss  New England (A)
  loss  Oakland (H)
  loss  Atlanta (A)
  win  Denver (H)
  loss  Carolina (A)
  loss  Tennessee (H)
  loss  NY Jets (A)
  loss  Tampa Bay (H)
  loss  San Diego (A)
  45%  New Orleans (H)
  45%  Buffalo (H)
  52%  Oakland (A)
  25%  Denver (A)
  45%  San Diego (H)
  45%  Miami (H)
  42%  Cincinnati (A)

Miami
  loss  NY Jets (H)
  loss  Arizona (A)
  win  New England (A)
  win  San Diego (H)
  loss  Houston (A)
  loss  Baltimore (H)
  win  Buffalo (H)
  win  Denver (A)
  win  Seattle (H)
  82%  Oakland (H)
  30%  New England (H)
  60%  St. Louis (A)
  45%  Buffalo (A)
  77%  San Francisco (H)
  55%  Kansas City (A)
  35%  NY Jets (A)

Minnesota
  loss  Green Bay (A)
  loss  Indianapolis (H)
  win  Carolina (H)
  loss  Tennessee (A)
  win  New Orleans (A)
  win  Detroit (H)
  loss  Chicago (A)
  win  Houston (H)
  win  Green Bay (H)
  35%  Tampa Bay (A)
  52%  Jacksonville (A)
  60%  Chicago (H)
  75%  Detroit (A)
  35%  Arizona (A)
  65%  Atlanta (H)
  45%  NY Giants (H)

New England
  win  Kansas City (H)
  win  NY Jets (A)
  loss  Miami (H)
  win  San Francisco (A)
  loss  San Diego (A)
  win  Denver (H)
  win  St. Louis (H)
  loss  Indianapolis (A)
  win  Buffalo (H)
  80%  NY Jets (H)
  70%  Miami (A)
  65%  Pittsburgh (H)
  65%  Seattle (A)
  87%  Oakland (A)
  70%  Arizona (H)
  70%  Buffalo (A)

New Orleans
  win  Tampa Bay (H)
  loss  Washington (A)
  loss  Denver (A)
  win  San Francisco (H)
  loss  Minnesota (H)
  win  Oakland (H)
  loss  Carolina (A)
  win  San Diego (N)
  loss  Atlanta (A)
  55%  Kansas City (A)
  53%  Green Bay (H)
  35%  Tampa Bay (A)
  57%  Atlanta (H)
  35%  Chicago (A)
  72%  Detroit (A)
  50%  Carolina (H)

NY Giants
  win  Washington (H)
  win  St. Louis (A)
  win  Cincinnati (H)
  win  Seattle (H)
  loss  Cleveland (A)
  win  San Francisco (H)
  win  Pittsburgh (A)
  win  Dallas (H)
  win  Philadelphia (A)
  90%  Baltimore (H)
  60%  Arizona (A)
  55%  Washington (A)
  80%  Philadelphia (H)
  58%  Dallas (A)
  65%  Carolina (H)
  55%  Minnesota (A)

NY Jets
  win  Miami (A)
  loss  New England (H)
  loss  San Diego (A)
  win  Arizona (H)
  win  Cincinnati (H)
  loss  Oakland (A)
  win  Kansas City (H)
  win  Buffalo (A)
  win  St. Louis (H)
  20%  New England (A)
  30%  Tennessee (A)
  75%  Denver (H)
  55%  San Francisco (A)
  60%  Buffalo (H)
  50%  Seattle (A)
  65%  Miami (H)

Oakland
  loss  Denver (H)
  win  Kansas City (A)
  loss  Buffalo (A)
  loss  San Diego (H)
  loss  New Orleans (A)
  win  NY Jets (H)
  loss  Baltimore (A)
  loss  Atlanta (H)
  loss  Carolina (H)
  18%  Miami (A)
  32%  Denver (A)
  48%  Kansas City (H)
  10%  San Diego (A)
  13%  New England (H)
  40%  Houston (H)
  15%  Tampa Bay (A)

Philadelphia
  win  St. Louis (H)
  loss  Dallas (A)
  win  Pittsburgh (H)
  loss  Chicago (A)
  loss  Washington (H)
  win  San Francisco (A)
  win  Atlanta (H)
  win  Seattle (A)
  loss  NY Giants (H)
  75%  Cincinnati (A)
  50%  Baltimore (A)
  60%  Arizona (H)
  20%  NY Giants (A)
  90%  Cleveland (H)
  45%  Washington (A)
  56%  Dallas (H)

Pittsburgh
  win  Houston (H)
  win  Cleveland (A)
  loss  Philadelphia (A)
  win  Baltimore (H)
  win  Jacksonville (A)
  win  Cincinnati (A)
  loss  NY Giants (H)
  win  Washington (A)
  loss  Indianapolis (H)
  65%  San Diego (H)
  90%  Cincinnati (H)
  35%  New England (A)
  60%  Dallas (H)
  50%  Baltimore (A)
  47%  Tennessee (A)
  90%  Cleveland (H)

San Diego
  loss  Carolina (H)
  loss  Denver (A)
  win  NY Jets (H)
  win  Oakland (A)
  loss  Miami (A)
  win  New England (H)
  loss  Buffalo (A)
  loss  New Orleans (N)
  win  Kansas City (H)
  35%  Pittsburgh (A)
  50%  Indianapolis (H)
  60%  Atlanta (H)
  90%  Oakland (H)
  55%  Kansas City (A)
  30%  Tampa Bay (A)
  85%  Denver (H)

San Francisco
  loss  Arizona (H)
  win  Seattle (A)
  win  Detroit (H)
  loss  New Orleans (A)
  loss  New England (H)
  loss  Philadelphia (H)
  loss  NY Giants (A)
  loss  Seattle (H)
  loss  Arizona (A)
  60%  St. Louis (H)
  15%  Dallas (A)
  15%  Buffalo (A)
  45%  NY Jets (H)
  23%  Miami (A)
  45%  St. Louis (A)
  40%  Washington (H)

Seattle
  loss  Buffalo (A)
  loss  San Francisco (H)
  win  St. Louis (H)
  loss  NY Giants (A)
  loss  Green Bay (H)
  loss  Tampa Bay (A)
  win  San Francisco (A)
  loss  Philadelphia (H)
  loss  Miami (A)
  45%  Arizona (H)
  45%  Washington (H)
  15%  Dallas (A)
  35%  New England (H)
  45%  St. Louis (A)
  50%  NY Jets (H)
  10%  Arizona (A)

St. Louis
  loss  Philadelphia (A)
  loss  NY Giants (H)
  loss  Seattle (A)
  loss  Buffalo (H)
  win  Washington (A)
  win  Dallas (H)
  loss  New England (A)
  loss  Arizona (H)
  loss  NY Jets (A)
  40%  San Francisco (A)
  30%  Chicago (H)
  40%  Miami (H)
  10%  Arizona (A)
  55%  Seattle (H)
  55%  San Francisco (H)
  15%  Atlanta (A)

Tampa Bay
  loss  New Orleans (A)
  win  Atlanta (H)
  win  Chicago (A)
  win  Green Bay (H)
  loss  Denver (A)
  win  Carolina (H)
  win  Seattle (H)
  loss  Dallas (A)
  win  Kansas City (A)
  65%  Minnesota (H)
  68%  Detroit (A)
  65%  New Orleans (H)
  25%  Carolina (A)
  43%  Atlanta (A)
  70%  San Diego (H)
  85%  Oakland (H)

Tennessee
  win  Jacksonville (H)
  win  Cincinnati (A)
  win  Houston (H)
  win  Minnesota (H)
  win  Baltimore (A)
  win  Kansas City (A)
  win  Indianapolis (H)
  win  Green Bay (H)
  win  Chicago (A)
  57%  Jacksonville (A)
  70%  NY Jets (H)
  85%  Detroit (A)
  90%  Cleveland (H)
  48%  Houston (A)
  53%  Pittsburgh (H)
  35%  Indianapolis (A)

Washington
  loss  NY Giants (A)
  win  New Orleans (H)
  win  Arizona (H)
  win  Dallas (A)
  win  Philadelphia (A)
  loss  St. Louis (H)
  win  Cleveland (H)
  win  Detroit (A)
  loss  Pittsburgh (H)
  55%  Dallas (H)
  55%  Seattle (A)
  45%  NY Giants (H)
  47%  Baltimore (A)
  70%  Cincinnati (A)
  55%  Philadelphia (H)
  60%  San Francisco (A)

—Ian Allan

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