Fantasy News
We’re adding a new feature this week. Not only are we showing the projected final win totals for each team, we’re also listing (in parentheses after each team) the expected wins in the remainder of the season. Based on how teams are playing and who they’ve got left on their schedules, we envision a couple of surprise teams – the Colts and Packers – as being the most likely to win five of their remaining games. Two other teams project to win at least 4.0 games of their remaining six, the Giants and the Patriots.
PROJECTED FINAL WIN TOTALS FOR EACH TEAM
Numbers shown are a combination of what’s happened so far, plus what looks likely to occur in the final 96 regular season games. Each team gets credit for its existing wins, plus some fraction of each of its remaining six games. If a team is highly unlikely to win a particular game, it would perhaps only get 5 percent of a win for that week (to account for the outside chance of an upset, blown call or key injury). If a team looks certain to win, on the other hand, it might be credited with 95 percent of a win for that game.
Follow that process for every team and every game, and we’re left with the numbers you see below.
Wins Team (remaining wins)
13.9 Tennessee (3.9)
13.0 NY Giants (4.0)
11.0 Carolina (3.0)
10.8 Arizona (3.8)
10.8 Pittsburgh (3.8)
10.8 NY Jets (3.8)
10.7 Tampa Bay (3.7)
10.6 Indianapolis (4.6)
10.0 New England (4.0)
9.9 Dallas (3.9)
9.5 Baltimore (3.5)
9.3 Washington (3.3)
9.1 Green Bay (4.1)
9.1 Miami (3.1)
9.0 Atlanta (3.0)
8.7 Denver (2.7)
8.6 Chicago (3.6)
8.5 Philadelphia (3.0)
8.2 Minnesota (3.2)
8.0 New Orleans (3.0)
7.8 Buffalo (2.8)
7.6 San Diego (3.6)
6.0 Jacksonville (2.0)
5.7 Cleveland (1.7)
5.7 Houston (2.7)
4.8 San Francisco (1.8)
3.9 St. Louis (1.9)
3.8 Seattle (1.8)
3.8 Kansas City (2.8)
3.7 Oakland (1.7)
3.1 Cincinnati (1.6)
1.0 Detroit (1.0)
SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION
Arizona
win San Francisco (A)
win Miami (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win Dallas (H)
loss Carolina (A)
win St. Louis (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Seattle (A)
40% NY Giants (H)
45% Philadelphia (A)
95% St. Louis (H)
65% Minnesota (H)
40% New England (A)
95% Seattle (H)
Atlanta
win Detroit (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win Kansas City (H)
loss Carolina (A)
win Green Bay (A)
win Chicago (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
win Oakland (A)
win New Orleans (H)
loss Denver (H)
53% Carolina (H)
35% San Diego (A)
40% New Orleans (A)
55% Tampa Bay (H)
35% Minnesota (A)
85% St. Louis (H)
Baltimore
win Cincinnati (H)
win Cleveland (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win Miami (A)
win Oakland (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win Houston (A)
loss NY Giants (A)
55% Philadelphia (H)
75% Cincinnati (A)
55% Washington (H)
51% Pittsburgh (H)
25% Dallas (A)
85% Jacksonville (H)
Buffalo
win Seattle (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
win Oakland (H)
win St. Louis (A)
loss Arizona (A)
win San Diego (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss NY Jets (H)
loss New England (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
52% Kansas City (A)
75% San Francisco (H)
55% Miami (H)
30% NY Jets (A)
40% Denver (A)
30% New England (H)
Carolina
win San Diego (A)
win Chicago (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Kansas City (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win New Orleans (H)
win Arizona (H)
win Oakland (A)
win Detroit (H)
47% Atlanta (A)
35% Green Bay (A)
70% Tampa Bay (H)
80% Denver (H)
20% NY Giants (A)
45% New Orleans (A)
Chicago
win Indianapolis (A)
loss Carolina (A)
loss Tampa Bay (H)
win Philadelphia (H)
win Detroit (A)
loss Atlanta (A)
win Minnesota (H)
win Detroit (H)
loss Tennessee (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
75% St. Louis (A)
40% Minnesota (A)
75% Jacksonville (H)
65% New Orleans (H)
50% Green Bay (H)
50% Houston (A)
Cincinnati
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
loss Dallas (A)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Houston (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
tie Philadelphia (H)
7% Pittsburgh (A)
25% Baltimore (H)
4% Indianapolis (A)
30% Washington (H)
40% Cleveland (A)
52% Kansas City (H)
Cleveland
loss Dallas (H)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Baltimore (A)
win Cincinnati (A)
win NY Giants (H)
loss Washington (A)
win Jacksonville (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
loss Denver (H)
win Buffalo (A)
60% Houston (H)
20% Indianapolis (H)
5% Tennessee (A)
15% Philadelphia (A)
60% Cincinnati (H)
10% Pittsburgh (A)
Dallas
win Cleveland (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
win Green Bay (A)
loss Washington (H)
win Cincinnati (H)
loss Arizona (A)
loss St. Louis (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
win Washington (A)
90% San Francisco (H)
90% Seattle (H)
40% Pittsburgh (A)
40% NY Giants (H)
75% Baltimore (H)
50% Philadelphia (A)
Denver
win Oakland (A)
win San Diego (H)
win New Orleans (H)
loss Kansas City (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Jacksonville (H)
loss New England (A)
loss Miami (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win Atlanta (A)
70% Oakland (H)
25% NY Jets (A)
70% Kansas City (H)
20% Carolina (A)
60% Buffalo (H)
20% San Diego (A)
Detroit
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Chicago (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
loss Houston (A)
loss Washington (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Jacksonville (H)
loss Carolina (A)
28% Tampa Bay (H)
10% Tennessee (H)
28% Minnesota (H)
2% Indianapolis (A)
28% New Orleans (H)
2% Green Bay (A)
Green Bay
win Minnesota (H)
win Detroit (A)
loss Dallas (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
loss Atlanta (H)
win Seattle (A)
win Indianapolis (H)
loss Tennessee (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
win Chicago (H)
55% New Orleans (A)
65% Carolina (H)
85% Houston (H)
60% Jacksonville (A)
50% Chicago (A)
98% Detroit (H)
Houston
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Tennessee (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Miami (H)
win Detroit (H)
win Cincinnati (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
40% Cleveland (A)
65% Jacksonville (H)
15% Green Bay (A)
50% Tennessee (H)
50% Oakland (A)
50% Chicago (H)
Indianapolis
loss Chicago (H)
win Minnesota (A)
loss Jacksonville (H)
win Houston (A)
win Baltimore (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
loss Tennessee (A)
win New England (H)
win Pittsburgh (A)
win Houston (H)
55% San Diego (A)
80% Cleveland (A)
96% Cincinnati (H)
98% Detroit (H)
65% Jacksonville (A)
65% Tennessee (H)
Jacksonville
loss Tennessee (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Indianapolis (A)
win Houston (H)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
win Denver (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Detroit (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
48% Minnesota (H)
35% Houston (A)
25% Chicago (A)
40% Green Bay (H)
35% Indianapolis (H)
15% Baltimore (A)
Kansas City
loss New England (A)
loss Oakland (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
win Denver (H)
loss Carolina (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Tampa Bay (H)
loss San Diego (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
48% Buffalo (H)
55% Oakland (A)
30% Denver (A)
48% San Diego (H)
50% Miami (H)
48% Cincinnati (A)
Miami
loss NY Jets (H)
loss Arizona (A)
win New England (A)
win San Diego (H)
loss Houston (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
win Buffalo (H)
win Denver (A)
win Seattle (H)
win Oakland (H)
35% New England (H)
70% St. Louis (A)
45% Buffalo (A)
77% San Francisco (H)
50% Kansas City (A)
30% NY Jets (A)
Minnesota
loss Green Bay (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss Tennessee (A)
win New Orleans (A)
win Detroit (H)
loss Chicago (A)
win Houston (H)
win Green Bay (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
52% Jacksonville (A)
60% Chicago (H)
72% Detroit (A)
35% Arizona (A)
65% Atlanta (H)
40% NY Giants (H)
New England
win Kansas City (H)
win NY Jets (A)
loss Miami (H)
win San Francisco (A)
loss San Diego (A)
win Denver (H)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win Buffalo (H)
loss NY Jets (H)
65% Miami (A)
60% Pittsburgh (H)
60% Seattle (A)
80% Oakland (A)
60% Arizona (H)
70% Buffalo (A)
New Orleans
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss Denver (A)
win San Francisco (H)
loss Minnesota (H)
win Oakland (H)
loss Carolina (A)
win San Diego (N)
loss Atlanta (A)
win Kansas City (A)
45% Green Bay (H)
35% Tampa Bay (A)
60% Atlanta (H)
35% Chicago (A)
72% Detroit (A)
55% Carolina (H)
NY Giants
win Washington (H)
win St. Louis (A)
win Cincinnati (H)
win Seattle (H)
loss Cleveland (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Pittsburgh (A)
win Dallas (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
win Baltimore (H)
60% Arizona (A)
60% Washington (A)
80% Philadelphia (H)
60% Dallas (A)
80% Carolina (H)
60% Minnesota (A)
NY Jets
win Miami (A)
loss New England (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win Arizona (H)
win Cincinnati (H)
loss Oakland (A)
win Kansas City (H)
win Buffalo (A)
win St. Louis (H)
win New England (A)
35% Tennessee (A)
75% Denver (H)
65% San Francisco (A)
70% Buffalo (H)
60% Seattle (A)
70% Miami (H)
Oakland
loss Denver (H)
win Kansas City (A)
loss Buffalo (A)
loss San Diego (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
win NY Jets (H)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Atlanta (H)
loss Carolina (H)
loss Miami (A)
30% Denver (A)
45% Kansas City (H)
10% San Diego (A)
20% New England (H)
50% Houston (H)
15% Tampa Bay (A)
Philadelphia
win St. Louis (H)
loss Dallas (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Washington (H)
win San Francisco (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Seattle (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
tie Cincinnati (A)
45% Baltimore (A)
55% Arizona (H)
20% NY Giants (A)
85% Cleveland (H)
45% Washington (A)
50% Dallas (H)
Pittsburgh
win Houston (H)
win Cleveland (A)
loss Philadelphia (A)
win Baltimore (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
win Cincinnati (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
win Washington (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win San Diego (H)
93% Cincinnati (H)
40% New England (A)
60% Dallas (H)
49% Baltimore (A)
48% Tennessee (A)
90% Cleveland (H)
San Diego
loss Carolina (H)
loss Denver (A)
win NY Jets (H)
win Oakland (A)
loss Miami (A)
win New England (H)
loss Buffalo (A)
loss New Orleans (N)
win Kansas City (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
45% Indianapolis (H)
65% Atlanta (H)
90% Oakland (H)
52% Kansas City (A)
25% Tampa Bay (A)
80% Denver (H)
San Francisco
loss Arizona (H)
win Seattle (A)
win Detroit (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss New England (H)
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
loss Seattle (H)
loss Arizona (A)
win St. Louis (H)
10% Dallas (A)
25% Buffalo (A)
35% NY Jets (H)
23% Miami (A)
45% St. Louis (A)
40% Washington (H)
Seattle
loss Buffalo (A)
loss San Francisco (H)
win St. Louis (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win San Francisco (A)
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss Arizona (H)
40% Washington (H)
10% Dallas (A)
40% New England (H)
45% St. Louis (A)
40% NY Jets (H)
5% Arizona (A)
St. Louis
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Seattle (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Washington (A)
win Dallas (H)
loss New England (A)
loss Arizona (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss San Francisco (A)
25% Chicago (H)
30% Miami (H)
5% Arizona (A)
55% Seattle (H)
55% San Francisco (H)
15% Atlanta (A)
Tampa Bay
loss New Orleans (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Chicago (A)
win Green Bay (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Carolina (H)
win Seattle (H)
loss Dallas (A)
win Kansas City (A)
win Minnesota (H)
72% Detroit (A)
65% New Orleans (H)
30% Carolina (A)
45% Atlanta (A)
75% San Diego (H)
85% Oakland (H)
Tennessee
win Jacksonville (H)
win Cincinnati (A)
win Houston (H)
win Minnesota (H)
win Baltimore (A)
win Kansas City (A)
win Indianapolis (H)
win Green Bay (H)
win Chicago (A)
win Jacksonville (A)
65% NY Jets (H)
90% Detroit (A)
95% Cleveland (H)
50% Houston (A)
52% Pittsburgh (H)
35% Indianapolis (A)
Washington
loss NY Giants (A)
win New Orleans (H)
win Arizona (H)
win Dallas (A)
win Philadelphia (A)
loss St. Louis (H)
win Cleveland (H)
win Detroit (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Dallas (H)
60% Seattle (A)
40% NY Giants (H)
45% Baltimore (A)
70% Cincinnati (A)
55% Philadelphia (H)
60% San Francisco (A)
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