Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 20 at 02:54 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I think I might be a little confused. You projected Peyton Manning to post around 350 fantasy points for 2007 in yardage based leagues but L.T. is at 323. Also, you have Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger, Romo, Kitna, Hasselbeck, and Young listed ahead of every other running back. I somewhat understand the supply and demand philosophy but maybe you could fill me in a little bit. It doesn't quite make sense to me. Are you assuming that each league has 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D? How did you rate the value of each player overall?
Jake Haugen [Duluth, MN]
A:
Scarcity, not total production, determines a player's value. If our projections are accurate, then Manning will produce 350 fantasy points. But about 17 quarterbacks down our draft board, we've got quarterbacks like Matt Leinart and Jake Delhomme at about 245 points. That's a difference of 105 points. Tomlinson may produce fewer points than Manning (about 322, we figure), but there's a huge dropoff to the running backs who'll be selected in the same neighborhood as Delhomme and Leinart. In most fantasy leagues, teams start twice as many running backs as quarterbacks, so you'll see running backs around No. 30 selected in that range -- LaMont Jordan, Julius Jones, Chester Taylor, etc. Those guys project to score about 120 points -- or about 200 fewer points than Tomlinson. That's why Tomlinson beats Manning.
Question 2:
I have the #4 pick in a 12 team PPR league. Assuming LT and S.Jackson are gone, who do you like out of L.Johnson, Gore and S.Alexander? Am I crazy to think Addai might be worth a look? He's in a high-powered offense, will get every carry and should catch a lot of passes, right? And he doesn't have the question marks of Alexander (foot, o-line) or Gore (fragile).
Brian Fulton [NASHVILLE, TN]
A:
If Larry Johnson's contract situation is resolved, he's the guy I would take. But I think there's a good chance that's going to be a problem. And in the scenario, Addai is a guy you'll have to seriously consider. He might catch 70 passes, and that would give him about a 90-point headstart against Alexander (50 for the receptions, and 40 for the yards). Gore caught 60 balls last year, but I think his production in that area will decline this year -- even if he stays healthy.
Question 3:
I am in a 12-team auction league, point-per reception league with bonuses for 100-yard rushing and receiving. We have a $100 salary cap minus we keep 2 players for 2007. I will keep Larry Johnson at $12, but my second keeper will be either Clinton Portis for $15 or Marques Colston for $5. Who do I keep and why, Portis or Colston?
Johnny Rocket [Hartsville, Tenn.]
A:
I'd keep Colston. I think he'll be about as good as Portis -- I've got Colston as a top-10 receiver -- and you've got him at a much more favorable cap number. If you look at as, "who would you rather have: Portis or Colston plus a $10 player," I don't think there's any comparison.
Question 4:
What are your thoughts of Devin Hester as a Fantasy WR (while including the rushing attempts he'll get)? I read through the Chicago Bears section of the magazine and saw no mention of his name in that regard. Could he be a good late round sleeper?
Cody Hager [Aloha, Ore.]
A:
Only if you're in a TD-only league that includes bonuses for long touchdowns. Some leagues, for example, give double value for touchdowns over 50 yards. In that type of format, Hester could win a few games -- his 4-5 TDs might all come from 50-plus yards. (And by 4-5 TDs, I'm assuming he'll score 2-3 TDs on kick returns and 2-3 TDs on offensive plays.)
Question 5:
I have the second pick in our draft (12 teams) this year and we use an odd scoring system. All TD's worth 6 and we start only 1 RB instead of 2 like most leagues. That being said does Manning enter your mind as the number 2 pick over someone like Jackson? LT will be off the board. What would your top 10 look like in that format?
Patrick McMahon [MEDWAY, MA]
A:
You don't mention yards, so I'll assume that isn't a factor. You also don't mention wide receivers; I'll assume you're starting two. Based on those parameters, Manning actually edges Tomlinson for the first spot. And in my opinion, after those two go with the top 2 picks, the next three picks should all be quarterbacks -- Palmer, Brady, Brees. Then the next six would be an even mix of wide receivers and running backs. There are good running backs who'll be available in the teens, and those guys are just backups in your league.
Question 6:
Hey Ian- long time subscriber... Our league is entering its 20th anniversary season. 16-Team TD-only non keeper, snake draft. Two issues:
#1, I think we are going to the "3RR" draft format this season (i.e. 1-16, then 16-1 each ensuing round) to try and negate the large advantage of being pick #1,#2 or #3 in a snake draft -- you like?
#2, we give 5 pts for a TD pass, and 7 for rush or receive TD. I'm still not liking this trend of 12-14 RBs still ranking higher than say, the #2 QB ... But I'm not sure I want to give passing TDs equal weight, nor do I like the 2 QB system. What can you suggest to fairly raise the value of the stud QBs, so that a Carson Palmer, for example, is accurately valued, and not being drafted until 15+ RBs are off the board?
Thanks for your insight
Matt Tinker
Red Stripe Hoo-Rays
Orleans, VT
Matt Tinker [Orleans, Vt.]
A:
I like the idea of changing the TD scoring mix from 6-4 to 7-5. It makes 3 TD passes more valuable than 2 TDs (rather than equal). That rule doesn't, however, make a big enough change in draft boards. You're still looking at Manning just a top-8 pick and the next top three quarterbacks showing up around 15th to 20th. To truly get QBs on equal footing with running backs, you need to either double the number of starting QBs or halve the number of running backs that get used.
Question 7:
Love the site and the magazine....well, it was awaited with "Potter" like enthusiasm. With the brown nosing out of the way ... I am running a 12-team league this season in which we are striving to the best of our ability to make elite RB=elite WR=elite QB. In so doing, we plan on starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Def, 1 TE, 1 Kicker and 1 Flex (any OFF position, though, most weeks, it will be a 2nd QB). That's the easy part; the harder part? Yardage bonuses. Currently, we give 1 pt/25 passing and 1 pt/10 rushing receiving. We are trying to decide whether or not to add a point per reception, but, would it be better to instead devalue rushing yards to 1 pt/20 and retain receiving yards at 1/10...or go 1/5 for receiving yards and keep 1/10 for rushing? Your help in this matter is greatly appreciated, as we are keen to have the world's first (and possibly only) truly balanced league.
Jr. Ayers [Ferguson, NC]
A:
Thanks for the kind words. I'll let the readers chime in on this one. See if anybody's got any good ideas. My only thought would be to go with 4 WRs as starters rather than 3. With 1-2 starting QBs and 2-3 starting RBs, I think wide receivers will still tend to get overpowered a bit.
Question 8:
I have used your cheat sheets as a tool to customize my personal cheat sheet every year before my drafts. You guys are the best hands down. I love your aggressive style of rating guys. I loved the bold move to put T. Bell on the cover even though we all know how that worked out. That kind of strategy with some risk but high reward is what has won me many championships. Keep it up!
I would like to see "dropoff" beneath players on your cheat sheets when there is a gap in value. If running backs 10 thru 15 are virtually identical then put "dropoff" after your 9th listed player. This way I would know its a good time to draft a wide receiver that round and still be able to come back the following round and get an identical player in value.....Remember, if you don't strive to get better the pack will soon catch up!
Thanks,
Ty Haines
Loveland, CO
TYLER HAINES [LOVELAND, CO]
A:
We get this request from time to time, but we've never been able to implement it. How much of a dropoff does there have to be between two players to merit a line? There's some dropoff, of course, between every player on the draft board. And we're also working with an ever-expanding range of players -- we've got 120 different draft boards for auction leagues this year. Two suggestions: You can look at our stat projections, where you can see the exact numerical difference between each player. Or you could look at the auction prices, where you can see that production translated into values.
Readers' Comments
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Question 3: I am in a 12-team...
Posted by Troy Smith | Jul. 25 at 07:58 PM
u have to keep colston. if you got portis for $10 last year when he was a top 5-7 rb, what do you think he'll go for this year? probably not $10. you keep LJ, colston, and could still get portis and have a few bucks left over.
Question 3: I am in a 12-team...
Posted by Troy Smith | Jul. 25 at 08:00 PM
sorry he went for 15. but you will still get him for a max of about $8-10. so now u get 2 for 1 and if someone outbids u at $10 let him have portis and look elsewhere.
Question 6: Hey Ian- long time subscriber......
Posted by Jr. Ayers | Jul. 21 at 10:24 PM
That's what I'm looking to get done, Ed. Sounds like your league is perfect.
Question 7: Love the site and the...
Posted by Ed Weiss | Jul. 21 at 06:08 PM
Two years ago, our 12-team league went to the following scoring system which everyone really likes: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 Wildcard (any position - most people use a QB); 1 pt/10 yards rush/rec, 1 pt/20 yards passing, 1 pt/reception for WR and TE only, and 6/4 for scored/thrown TD's. The PPR for WR/TE only helps increase the value of WR's (while not increasing the value for top RB's even more), and the wildcard helps increase the demand for QB's while giving flexibility for bye week QB shortages.
Question 8: I have used your cheat...
Posted by BRYAN BERTSCH | Jul. 23 at 11:22 AM
For the pre-draft/auction you're right...we can create the drop-off line ourselves by looking at auction values. Though this would still be a very valuable tool. It would become even more valuable on your Re-Drafters. I'd like you to reconsider. You could put a line under any player where you feel the dropoff is, say, 10%. Come on, Ian. See the light!