Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 27 at 01:10 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I have the fifth pick in a 12 team TD-only league, and was leaning towards Joseph Addai. Does the retirement of Tarik Glenn affect Addai's status in your mind?
Adam Rich [Oshkosh, WI]
A:
I think you have to drop Addai 5-10 percent statistically – and that might not be enough. Everyone is dumping on Larry Johnson because of his offensive line problems; I don’t see why Addai should get a free pass. The Colts have offensive line problems; it’s not a physical group that can move people off the line of scrimmage. In recent years, for example, Indianapolis has been one of the worst goal-line rushing teams in the league. Last season the Colts scored on only 4 of their 15 running plays when they were on the 1-yard line. Prior to the Glenn retirement, I had Addai as one of the running backs to consider at No. 3 overall – after LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson were selected. Now I’ve downgraded him to be pretty much interchangeable with the other half-dozen backs that you can consider for that spot.
Question 2:
I was looking at your updated rankings for ppr leagues and noticed you had Willie Parker really low. In fact he is lower than guys like Plaxico Burress and Tony Gonzalez. In most mocks and ranking Parker is a top 10 guy, you have him at 36. Is there a reason for this? I know he does not catch a ton of passes, but he was the 6th best running back in this scoring system last year and was only outscored by one WR. Plus isn't it harder to find a full time running back?
MICHAEL KOLTON [Green Bay, Wis.]
A:
Here’s what’s going on with Parker (and some of the other running backs). I saw in a poll on our website that a 2-to-1 majority of leagues use three starting wide receivers, rather than two. With that in mind, I changed some of the parameters at the top of the draft, causing wide receivers to rise and running backs to fall. From this point on, however, what I think I’ll do is kind of stack out territory halfway in-between – assume 24 running backs will be starters and 30 wide receivers will start.
As for Parker specifically, I don’t think he’ll be on any of my teams. He’s a good enough back and I wouldn’t mind selecting him about 24 players in, but I’m aware that most others rank him much higher. I expect him to catch only about 25 passes. That’s one problem. I also expect him to be pulled in goal-line situations far more often this year. Mostly, though, I’m nervous about the direction that team is headed in, with a new coaching staff and an offensive line that has some problems.
Question 3:
How would you go about adjusting the auction values for a league that only uses the auction for the first 5 rounds (for 50 players) and then uses a standard draft style after that? We can spend up to $100 on our first 5 picks.
Rick Anderson [Sun Prairie, Wis.]
A:
Anytime you’re dealing with an auction, you want to look at what you can get for the minimum bid ($1), and then accurately adjust the prices so that no how you divide the dollars on the others guys, you’ll get the same amount of production. (That is, the stats of four guys that you feel are worth $25 should exactly equal the stats of three $33 players plus one $1 guy.) In this case, I would make the assumption that about a dozen guys will go for $1. I don’t know if that’s fair or not, but that’s my guess. And once we make that assumption – that Larry Fitzgerald, Clinton Portis, Javon Walker and Marc Bulger are going for the $1 minimum – then the other prices fall in line.
According to my stat projections, LaDainian Tomlinson is actually worth more than the entire $100 salary. And that holds mathematically. The production you’d get out of Tomlinson plus four other players at $1 each easily beats buying five players at $20 each. Maybe a good strategy, then, would be to trade away your 10th-round pick for an extra $5 worth of cap space.
The complete player-value rundown for a 50-player drauction league, assuming scoring includes both yards and touchdowns:
$128 Tomlinson, $81 S.Jackson, $80 L.Johnson, $58 Gore, $53 Alexander, $48 Addai, $47 Westbrook, $47 Henry, $44 P.Manning, $43 Bush, $31 Maroney, $30 McGahee, $29 S.Smith, $23 Parker, $21 R.Johnson, $21 Jones-Drew, $20 Brady, $19 Holt, $19 Brees, $16 Harrison, $15 Owens, $14 Gates, $13 Benson, $13 James, $12 C.Johnson, $12 Evans, $11 Houshmandzadeh, $11 Wayne, $10 Palmer, $6 Colston, $4 Driver, $3 R.Brown, $3 McAllister, $2 Lynch, $1 Lewis, $1 Green, $1 Fitzgerald, $1 Portis, $1 Gonzalez, $1 J.Walker, $1 Bulger, $1 Romo, $1 D.Williams, $1 Burress, $1 Boldin, $1 R.Williams, $1 Cooley, $1 T.Jones, $1 Williams, $1 Shockey.
Question 4:
Hey Ian. With your help I think that I may have secured enough votes for my league to give an auction a try this year. I'll know for sure this Saturday. In a 12 team league with 16 roster spots, approximately how long can we expect a poker style auction to take our first year?
Billy LEROY [YUMA, AZ]
A:
Once you reach the halfway point of an auction, it will be very similar to a draft, with the vast majority of players going for $1 or $2. I expect the auction will take only slightly longer than a draft.
Question 5:
Hi Ian,
I'm in a one player keeper league, 16 teams, which I won last year. Start 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE, 2RB/WR/TE, 1K, and 1D. 6 points for all TD's, 1 point for every 10 rush/receiving yards, 1 point for every 25 passing, 1 point per reception. I have to choose between Peyton Manning, Travis Henry, or Ronnie Brown, keeping in mind that I don't get to pick until the 16th and 17th selections. I'm leaning towards keeping Manning (who I would be able to keep this year and next), but I'm afraid of what rb's would be available when it's my turn to pick. What do you think?
Richard Vallejo (New York, NY)
Richard Vallejo [New York, NY]
A:
I ran some numbers on this. With the way that league is structured, I just assumed RB-WR-TE was one position (since you’re starting only one of each and have two flex players). With a 16-team league, there should be scarcity at every position – 16 starting quarterbacks and teams also interested in securing a backup quarterback (since they’ll all be gone). And 80 starters at the other combined field positions, and most would probably like to have 1-2 good reserves there.
When I ran my numbers, Manning came out as the No. 6 player on the board. Henry checked in at No. 23. That might seem low to you, but keep in mind that he’s not going to catch many passes, which is huge in your format. Manning is definitely the guy I’d keep.
Question 6:
Ian,
I'm in a 16 team keeper league with a $2,200 cap ($5 bidding increments). We keep 4 per off season and I have LJ ($140), Westbrook ($265) and Baltimore ($210). If I keep Maroney at 340, I'd have $525 to spend (I traded draft money away during the season). My other option is to trade Maroney for Steve Smith ($160) and cash. The question is: given my team (where we start either 2 or 3 RB and 2, 3 or 4 WR depending on the formation) would you rather have Maroney and $525 to spend or Smith and over $700 to spend?
STEVEN SALAMI [HAZLET, NJ]
A:
I’d rather have Smith and the extra money. Maroney is a solid prospect (and six years younger than Smith), but the extra $175 should allow you to purchase another solid player.
Question 7:
Hi Ian, I highly value your opinion and would like your take on my potential save league dilemna...My league has each team save 5 players, uses typical performance stats, and starts 1QB, 2RB, 4WR, and 1 TE each week...I have Steven Jackson, Shaun Alexander, Joseph Addai, Lawrence Maroney, Torry Holt and Terrell Owens to chose from...The question is: does the weighting of the league with 4 starting WRs make me save Owens over Addai or Maroney -- who are of course young and potential saves for years to come?
Matthew Weisberg [SOUTH EUCLID, OH]
A:
I think you have to make a trade. You’re starting only two running backs, so I don’t think you can afford to save more than three. Alexander, being by far the oldest, makes the most sense to move, but you’ll have to see if anybody is interested in him. Keeping the two wide receivers and three running backs and trading any one of those running backs (including the golden Steven Jackson) for a nice package of draft picks is an appealing option. It would be nice to be able to select Calvin Johnson in the draft. In a 12-team league that starts four wide receivers versus only two running backs, I believe 10 of the top 22 players on the board are wide receivers (along with Manning and 11 running backs).
Question 8:
I am a loyal fan of the magazine. It's the only one I purchase all year. The content is awesome, but I have one suggestion. Most of how I select my players is based on matchups (particularly during the playoff weeks). It would be ideal if the magazine talked more about projected weaknesses of each team defense. As much as we know who the best offensive and defensive players are out there, it would be ideal to know which teams are going to suck against the run and which teams are lousy against the pass. That way, it would help me when selecting some of the middle-tier guys, the fill-ins our casual starters that you play only when the matchups are right.
Mike Fair [Woodbury, MN]
A:
With our draft boards, we have to appeal to multiple audiences. In an eight-team league (with four making the playoffs), it’s fair to assume you’ll make the playoffs and make some plans for what kind of lineup you might put on the field in week 16. But in a 12-team league with four making the playoffs, you must first just make sure you’ll get into the postseason.
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Question 3: How would you go about...
Posted by Brian Pedersen | Jul. 24 at 02:28 PM
What do you do if 5 teams bid the max $100 for Tomlinson? The first to bid $100? Coin flip?
Question 3: How would you go about...
Posted by ADAM HOLTZ | Jul. 24 at 09:38 PM
To Brian: In an auction, each owner takes turns nominating players (usually). Why not say that the owner who nominated the previous player gets first chance to outbid everyone on the next player?
Question 3: How would you go about...
Posted by Craig Rinne | Jul. 26 at 11:55 AM
Brian and Adam: You have to keep bidding--thus, you go to draft picks--who's willing to sacrifice the highest pick in the regular draft, or multiple picks if that's still tied?
Question 3: How would you go about...
Posted by Duane Stay | Jul. 26 at 06:50 PM
If the max of units is 100 and five people bid 100 how would you fill your remaining roster? If you have 13 roster spots I would say that 88 would be the max bid, because you need one unit for the remaining 12 spots. Now, if five people bid 88..... I guess a new league rule would have to be adopted in a hurry. Flip a coin or who can chug a beer the fastest or whatever the league decides. Good luck! Duane