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Posted Jul. 27 at 05:07 PM

Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.



Question 1:

Our league penalizes QBs 1 point for taking a sack. How does the recent retirement of Glenn affect Manning in this category. Would you consider Palmer over him due to the fact that this is a keeper league?


Patrick McMahon [MEDWAY, MA]

A:

You could put Peyton Manning behind any offensive line, in my opinion, and I don’t think he would get sacked often. He just gets rid of the ball quickly – just like Dan Marino.

The year before the Colts selected Manning, they allowed 62 sacks, 2nd-most in the league. In Manning’s first year (with a similar offensive line) they allowed only 22 sacks, 2nd-fewest in the league. Like Marino, Manning simply isn’t a quarterback who’s going to be sacked a lot.

Now, that’s not to say that the retirement of Glenn (if Glenn actually retires) isn’t going to have an impact. They’ll have a lesser player there, and that means pass rushers will get to Manning faster. And if he’s given less time, he won’t play as well. His completion rate probably will go down – a few more throwaways – and he’ll probably throw 1-3 more interceptions and 1-3 fewer TDs. On my board, I’ve changed Manning’s projection, dropping him by 1 TD and increasing him by 1 interception.


Question 2:

Ian, I'm trying to reconcile auction values to projected stats. I know it's part art, not all science (i.e will a guy play 16 games or only 13). But some seem off to me. Take Manning and Bulger for instance. You've got Bulger with 2 less starts and 2.5 points per game less than Manning. Seems reasonable to me. But, in my league's format, you've got Manning as a $44 player and Bulger at $17 ($200 cap so I've doubled your values). That delta seems way too high after looking at projected production. Can you explain?

Tom D.

Tewksbury, NJ


Tom Duggan [CALIFON, NJ]

A:

Assume that you were to ignore the quarterback position until the late stages of your auction. Who would you be left with as your starting quarterback? Jake Delhomme or Matt Leinart, perhaps. Those would be the best of the quarterbacks who’ll go for the $1 minimum. We’ll say that we expect those guys to each average about 16 points per game. So that’s what we call a base-level player. That 16 points per game is essentially “free.” It’s production beyond that point that you pay for. So if Peyton Manning is going to average 24 points per game and Marc Bulger is going to average 20 points per game, Manning should be twice as valuable as Bulger. (Manning would be 8 points above the base level, versus only 4 points for Bulger.) That’s the principle at play here, only I’ve also worked in the expected number of games.


Question 3:

This website is the best. I am in a new 12 team league, scoring system is 5-PassTD, 6-RushTD, 7-RecTD. Plus TE get 1 pt per reception. Starting line-up 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR 1 TE. How would you rank A. Gates. Top 10 overall?


gilberto baca [FRESNO, CA]

A:

According to my numbers, Gates would be the No. 11 player on the board, behind nine running backs and Peyton Manning. And Tony Gonzalez would be No. 15. But I don’t believe I’d target either of those guys. By my projections, six other tight ends would show up between 26th and 46th on your board, and probably one of those guys – Chris Cooley, perhaps – would represent your best value. If you were to select a wide receiver at No. 13, for example, you’d be able to take Cooley at about No. 50 and come out way ahead versus selecting Gates at No. 13 and a wide receiver at 50.


Question 4:

Hey, great magazine this year. The addition of the Point Per Reception was a much needed addition that is very helpful to many of us. Could you please give me a top 50 player list of a league with the following settings...

12 teams/keep 4 players each year/Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF/4 pts TD pass, 6 pts TD run/rec/ret, 1 pt 20 pass yards, 1 pt 10 rush/rec yards, 1 PPR

Thanks


steve heroshii [beverly hills, CA]

A:

You can see the top 50 (top 100 or more, actually) for various scoring systems and league sizes by consulting with the auction prices. Go to that section of the website and select the appropriate parameters (PPR, 3 WR, 12 teams) and you’ll get an exact value for each player.


Question 5:

We have a 16-team league and the players with a top-3 pick win the league every year. Other than a full auction is there any quick and easy way to do a blind "bid" on draft slots and then conduct a draft based on the results?


Brian Pedersen [PARK RIDGE, IL]

A:

I saw a suggestion from a reader a few weeks back that I liked. He said that in his league, the draft order is reversed – permanently – in the second round. That is, if you draft No. 1 in the first round, you draft last in every other round. That’s a step in the right direction in my opinion. Not a huge step, though. The key rounds in a draft are the first four, and you’re actually changing only one of those four rounds. The first two draft spots still project to be the best – just not by as much.

Another option would be to go to true free agency. Auction off that No. 1 draft slot, with the money raised perhaps going to a charity.


Question 6:

Hello Ian -

A few years back you included an article about how to come up with auction values for players in a keeper league (I don't remember the exact name of the article, but it had to do with calculating a "bang" value based on the available players with the protected players removed and the total salary cap for all teams adjusted accordingly). I use this every year. My question is whether you have ever given any thought to automating this and adding it as a capability on your website? As you know, its a very labor intensive process. I realize the values kicked out need some tweaking, as you discuss in the article. Thanks!!!!


TOMMY LUCKNER [ANDOVER, KS]

A:

Generating values for a keeper league becomes incredibly complex. If you were going to be a true analyst, I suppose you would project the player’s stats for all of the upcoming seasons and then downgrade future stats by something like 10 percent per year – saddle those down-the-road stats with a reversed interest rate.

Ultimately, though, I think you’ll be best not bringing too many numbers into the thing. There are simply too many variables (including calculating the probability that your league will even exist in four years). Instead, put the guys in the order that you think is right, then decide who’ll be the best player at each position to go for the $1 minimum. From there and working backwards, you should be able to build a decent list. Ask yourself questions along the way. If you’ve got Tomlinson at $40, for example, ask yourself if you actually believe Tomlinson and a $1 back will be more productive than two running backs you have listed at $17. That’s the system I’d use.


Question 7:

Hi Ian- You have touched on this briefly in other emails... In a league that starts 3 WR rather than 2 (along with 1 QB and 2 RB) does that push some of the elite WRs higher up the over-all cheat sheet?

Thanks for your input


Matt Tinker [ORLEANS, VT]

A:

Absolutely, you’ll tend to see wide receivers move up a couple of spots everywhere on the draft board. If you require 50 percent more wide receivers to be used as starters, that’s going to increase the demand, and that will cause the price to rise.


Question 8:

I have a keeper question. I am in a keeper league and this year we can keep up to four players or none at all. All touchdowns are worth 6 Points, QB get 1 point for every 40 yards and backs and WR get 1 point every 15 yards rushing or receiving. We start one QB, 2 RB, 3WR and 1 flex. I have the following players and am not sure who to keep. I lost in the championship game last year and would pick 11, 23, 35, and 47 if I did not keep any. I have PManning, Portis, RWayne, Deuce and Roy Wms. I am thinking of keeping the 1st four, but do you believe they would be around when I pick? I think they might in the 2nd round but all should be long gone bye the time my 4th round pick rolls along.


Greg Nyboe [RACINE, WI]

A:

At 6 points per TD pass, Manning makes sense at No. 11 overall. But in my opinion, you don’t have another player who’s worth giving away the No. 23 pick of the draft. And you don’t have a strong third guy either. I’d keep just the one and take my chances in the draft.


Question 9:

We use a 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK auction leage format. You sent me the adjusted auction prices using 2 QBs, and I thank you. The other variations in this league are 6 points for passing TDs and a $200 cap. Is 4 points instead of 6 worth adjusting prices for? Do I simply double the auction prices, or is it more complicated than that?


ROBERT LINDMEIER [OREGON, WI]

A:

Sorry, I don’t have the time to run those prices right now. Doubling the prices that I already compiled for you should put you in the right ballpark. The minimum bids, of course, don’t need to be doubled; you should probably leave at least half of those at the $1 minimum and re-allocate the extra money elsewhere.


Question 10:

Do you think the defense/special teams scoring for our league is too high?

Touchdowns: 10 points

Safeties: 10 points

Shutouts: 10 points

Interceptions, sacks and fumble recoveries: 3 points


Johnny Bazzano [SANTA ROSA, CA]

A:

Dunno. It would depend on how many points were given to players at other positions. If you are going to use defenses, it makes sense to give them enough credit for their work that they’re worth having around. We used to base our rankings around defenses getting 1 point for every sack or takeaway. Now we’ve changed that to 2 points for each.


Readers' Comments

Question 9: We use a 2 QB,...

Posted by Marco Tavares | Jul. 27 at 10:00 PM

We use the same format in my league as well. Anyway you can send me the updated auction pricing?

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