Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 31 at 08:43 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I'm in a 14-team 2-keeper league and I have the third pick after an off year. Steven Jackson is my obvious keeper and then I have either Matt Leinart or Ahman Green. Who would you keep out of those two? It's a 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, etc. league, and I have the third overall pick in a serpentine draft.
Brian Marshall [NEWTON, IA]
Question 2:
Hey Ian, two receiver questions: Moulds w/ the Titans--whaddya think? And Randy Moss--you were right-on last year, and I agree that he'll be overvalued this year, but aren't you undervaluing him a bit? While Brady/Belichick do spread the passes around, they've never had a receiver like Moss to work with, especially in the red zone (even given that they use TEs a lot), which will be a question mark w/ Dillon retired. And speaking of Dillon, Pats didn't have a big TD rusher before Dillon arrived (I think Smith had one double digit TD year), but they certainly used Dillon when he was there, which perhaps indicates a willingness to use a special talent when one arrives. I'd say 1000+ yds, 10-11 TDs is realistic for Moss.
Jeff Hogge [GAINESVILLE, FL]
A:
I think Moulds is done. I have no interest in him. As for Moss, if you think he’s going to catch 11 TDs, I think you might get him in your draft. I thought Moss would be hopelessly overvalued, but so far I’ve been wrong. In the auction league we did in our magazine, he’s only the 14th-highest paid wide receiver. And I’m participating in two experts leagues at www.fanexfootball.com, and he went only 15th and 17th in those. I think that’s a fair spot for him. I’ve got him in the same ballpark statistically as players like Deion Branch, Roy Williams, Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson. You obviously like him a lot more, so I think you might wind up selecting him. His price likely will go up if he catches a long touchdown or two in the preseason.
Question 3:
I'm in a league that usually conducts its auction on the night before the regular season starts. This year, however, the auction has been moved up to Aug. 11 (the first full week of preseason). It's worth noting that of the 3 leagues where I play, this one has the highest entry fee. Once you get past the studs--who will go for a pile of money no matter what--how much does an early auction date affect your overall strategy? Is it smarter to pursue a Jamal Lewis (limited upside but a lock to be Cleveland's #1 RB) rather than an Adrian Peterson (who could be the Vikings' starter by week 4 and have a monster year, but there's no way to know that on Aug. 11)?
P.S. The cover of this year's FFI proclaims it as the "20th Anniversary Edition," while last year's annual had "Our 20th Year" on the cover. Can you celebrate your 20th birthday twice? (This might be like the argument over whether the new millenium started in 2000 or 2001.)
MIKE FIMEA [PRESCOTT VALLEY, AZ]
A:
As of right now, I’ve got Lewis ahead of Peterson on my board. I think you summed it up nicely: Peterson has a lot more upside, but Lewis is firmly entrenched as a No. 1 back. And Cleveland’s offensive line will be a notch better this year. As for the 20-year deal, there’s definitely some double-dip action going on there. Last year was the 20th birthday (our 20th edition). But this year is the 20th anniversary – it’s now been exactly 20 years since that first edition rolled off the press. The guys on the business side thought it would be a good idea. I don’t get too involved in that stuff. I just hope my wife doesn’t find out about it, or I have the feeling we might end up celebrating our 20th wedding anniversary twice.
Question 4:
I want LT this year. We have an auction with 9 teams, 16 roster spots. We start 1 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, D in a TD/yards league. Last year’s top player went for $49. Off the top of my head I figured I’d bump that number by 20% and be willing to go $60 for LT this year. Now in a previous email you gave LT a $128 value in a drauction. So I request your advice. Is $60 too low? I’d be curious on how you’d value the next few players as well.
BRYAN BERTSCH [MINNEAPOLIS, MN]
A:
When I said I thought Tomlinson was worth $123, that was for a DRAUCTION. Meaning if you spent the $96 maximum amount on him, you’d probably still pick up four other players that ranked between 35th and 45th on your board. An auction is a different animal. There, you might be gutting your whole team if you get caught in a bidding war. We’ve got 120 different auction lists that are available through the front page of the site, including some that are very similar to yours. We don’t have nine-team league prices posted, but what I’m seeing for eight- and 10-team leagues indicates to me that I think Tomlinson would be worth about $40 in your league. If your top player went for $49 last year, there’s no way you’ll get Tomlinson for only $40.
Question 5:
I've got the second pick in a 10-team points-based league, where we start 2 QBs, 1 RB, 1 WR, 2 RB/WR flex. My dilemma is whether to draft a top RB or Manning. What muddies the issue is that in addition to the league starting 2 QBs each week, we get 6 points per passing TD, and interceptions and fumbles don't count against you. Also, we don't award PPR, so that potential bonus for RBs is negated. Your thoughts?
Jacob Ryder [Kentwood, MI]
A:
I believe Manning is the clear No. 2 player in that type of a format – helped by the double-whammy of extra points for TD passes, plus teams having to start twice as many quarterbacks. I just ran some quick numbers on it, and Manning comes in only slightly behind Tomlinson for the No. 1 spot.
Question 6:
Ian, do you think Larry Johnson will hold out long and if he does....where do you draft him if he isn't in camp yet. And do you think Priest Holmes coming back will effect anything.
steve durr [gibbstown, NJ]
A:
I don’t think Priest Holmes can play anymore. He’ll be 34 in October, and he hasn’t really done much in almost two years. But you have to know that Kansas City is delighted to have him in camp, so that it might create some doubts in Larry Johnson’s head. “If he’s 75 or 80 percent of what he was before he’s still one hell of a football player and the way we would like to use him will, I think, be enough that he could be a big contributing factor to the team’s offense,” GM Carl Peterson said. I expect Peterson and Herman Edwards to continue to say those kind of things, but I don’t think Holmes is going to be a factor at all. And despite the Holmes’ factor, I’m taking this Johnson holdout very seriously. I think he could be out for a long time, increasing the likelihood that he’ll either get injured or underperform.
Question 7:
How much weight do you place on the strength of schedule when rating one player over another during the draft? If RB Smith is slightly better than RB Jones, but RB Jones has an easier schedule, do you take Smith or Jones?
T Caulfield [Saint Paul, MN]
A:
In my rankings, strength of schedule isn’t a big factor. I don’t think it’s that reliable – a lot of teams will be much better or worse than last year. And different fantasy teams have different goals. If I’m in a 12-team league, with four teams making the playoffs, the idea of looking at potential playoff matchups in week 15 is a luxury I can’t afford. In that type of format, I’m more concerned with making sure I get into the tournament. For those in an eight-team league, with half of the teams making the playoffs, that changes things. I think it’s then reasonable to start considering what opponents players will be facing in the big weeks.
Question 8:
Ian: I really value the "Offensive lines" rankings in the magazine. Any thought to "updating" those rankings during the preseason and adding a spot on the "cheat sheet" for offensive lines? --Mark Colon, Grand Rapids, MI.
MARK COLON [CALEDONIA, MI]
A:
We can talk about offensive lines all through August. So far, the big change that comes to mind is the decision by Tarik Glenn to retire. That perhaps changes the Colts from being a slightly above-average group to slightly below-average. I’ve still got San Diego and New England as the top two on my board, and Miami and Oakland as the bottom two. I don’t, however, see those rankings becoming part of the cheat sheet proper.
Question 9:
I'm in a 12-team PPR league that starts 2 QBs and awards 5 points for a TD (only -2 for an interception). We also start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and have a WR/RB flex as well as a WR/TE flex. How should that change the way I draft my core players in the first 4-6 rounds? How high should I move quarterbacks up from your cheat sheet?
Rick Seto [QUINCY, MA]
A:
I just ran some quick numbers on it. According to this quick calculation, I would have eight quarterbacks in my top 20, including four of the top 6 overall. In that type of flex-heavy league, there would be a whole bunch (15) of wide receivers selected between 16th and 47th. My top 25:
Tomlinson, P.Manning, Brady, S.Jackson, Brees, Palmer, Bush, S.Smith, L.Johnson, Bulger, Holt, Westbrook, Romo, McNabb, Gore, Harrison, Houshmandzadeh, Owens, Hasselbeck, Addai , C.Johnson, Wayne, Evans, Colston, Kitna, Driver.
Question 10:
In my ten person league we start a quarterback, three runningbacks, three recievers/tightends, a kicker and a Defensive team. I have the 9th pick, is that too early for Travis Henry? Also do you think it would be wise to draft another back like Maroney, or should I go for a top teir QB like Brady or Brees?
Keith Carman [Mt Laurel, NJ]
A:
I think starting with Henry and Maroney would be a good way to go, but you’re not getting steals with either of those guys. I think that’s where you’ll see them go in most drafts – Henry around 10th, and Maroney just a bit later. I've got Maroney higher than either Brady or Brees.
Question 11:
Hello, I can keep up to 2 players in a 12-team Sportsline points-per-reception league, Sportsline regular scoring plus performances for length of TDs and 100/300 yard performances by RB, WR, TE, and QB. The two players we keep we have to sacrifice a draft pick in the round we keep them in. My team drafts 9th in odd rounds, 4th in even rounds, so some teams may not get to pick since they are keeping a player in the round they drafted them in. So I can keep either Shaun Alexander (drafted in 1st round), Steve Smith (2nd round), Larry Fitzgerald (2nd round via trade), Donovan McNabb (4th round), Travis Henry (10th round) and Vince Young (14th round). What do you suggest?
Johnny Rocket [Hartsville, TN]
A:
I’d go for the values – Travis Henry (10th round) and Vince Young (14th). Those guys would certainly be long gone by that time if you chose not to protect them. You can’t say that with any of your other guys. Alexander isn’t a top-4 player. Smith probably will go only a few picks earlier than No. 21 overall, Fitzgerald isn’t worth a second-rounder, and McNabb isn’t a player you’d consider in the fourth round.
Question 12:
Hey Ian. Love the auction breakdowns you provide to us (2 receivers, 3 receives, D = yes, D = no, etc). What about having some pricing for leagues that start 2QBs? Would love to check the rankings.
Marco Tavares [TEWKSBURY, MA]
A:
I’m getting a lot of those kind of requests – for two quarterbacks. Maybe it’s something we should add (taking us up to 240 prices overall). But hopefully, before too much longer, we’ll get an interactive program put together that allows readers to plug their own scoring system into a spreadsheet, with that info then networking with our most latest stat projections.
Question 13:
One of my leagues is an 8 person TDs and standard yardage league that starts 2qbs, 2rbs, 3wrs, 1rb/wr, 1 te and 1 Defense and 7 backup roster spots...Obviously this will make qbs more valuable, but my question is, by how much? With only 8 teams, most owners will be starting 3rbs and 3wrs every week, so does that completely offset the increase in the value of quarterbacks? What would a top 25 look like under these circumstances?
Joe Cartan [San Francisco, CA]
A:
I ran auction prices on that type of league. It looks like running backs are still king:
$36.19 LaDainian Tomlinson, $25.47 Steven Jackson, $25.45 Larry Johnson, $22.14 Peyton Manning, $19.96 Frank Gore, $19.90 Joseph Addai, $19.10 Shaun Alexander, $17.77 Brian Westbrook, $17.70 Travis Henry, $16.87 Reggie Bush, $15.87 Tom Brady, $15.56 Drew Brees, $14.47 Steve Smith, $14.41 Laurence Maroney, $14.34 Willie Parker, $14.10 Rudi Johnson, $13.96 Carson Palmer, $13.85 Willis McGahee, $12.29 Torry Holt, $11.87 Marvin Harrison, $11.82 Maurice Jones-Drew, $11.19 Terrell Owens, $10.99 Chad Johnson, $10.67 Reggie Wayne, $10.61 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, $10.57 Lee Evans, $10.38 Marc Bulger, $10.23 Cedric Benson, $10.09 Tony Romo.
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Question 6: Ian, do you think Larry...
Posted by Craig Rinne | Jul. 31 at 10:48 AM
If he's holding out late and thus available anywhere in the second round, you have to grab him there, I would think. Maybe even at 9 or 10 overall--so much upside. Of course, you then have to highly draft an extra RB.
Question 12: Hey Ian. Love the auction...
Posted by Andy Jury | Aug. 01 at 05:02 PM
I would love to see this!!!