Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 27 at 05:09 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I can’t find any viable explanation for your disdain of Justin Forsett. Here we have a back who is, for the moment, the undisputed No. 1 on a team that recently has been very patient with lesser backs. In addition to being his team’s top runner, he could catch 40-50 balls. What’s to stop him from being a poor man’s Ray Rice? Sure, Coach Carroll likes to split carries, but who else is going steal any? Surely they’ve seen enough of Julius Jones by now. Are you THAT certain that the Bills are going to give Marshawn Lynch to the Seahawks?
Jacob Wilson [CRANDALL, TX]
A:
I’m not quite sure how to handle Forsett. I think he might be the toughest player in the entire league to grade right now. If the Seahawks stand pat with what they have at running back (Forsett and Julius Jones, with Leon Washington coming back from a broken leg and unlikely to be a big factor), then I would expect Forsett would make a nice impact this year. He’d be there main guy. His physical numbers aren’t anything special; he’s got ordinary speed and weighs only 194 pounds. But short of Chris Johnson, Forsett did the best job of any back in the league of breaking runs of 20-plus yards last year. So under that scenario, Forsett would be my No. 21 running back right now in a typical fantasy format. On the flip side, what will happen to him if the Seahawks trade for Lynch? Assuming Lynch is in reasonable shape and can pick up that offense quickly – and I think he can – Forsett would be a lesser time-share back on a mediocre team. Lynch probably would get the goal-line work, and I’m not sure which guy would put up better overall numbers. If we go that route, than Forsett drops down to around 40th on my board. So where to rank him? Right now, I’ve got him as my No. 28 back. A month from now, that ranking obviously will be too high or too low. But for now, it seems like the fair spot – at least to me.
Question 2:
My league changed to give points to players that score return TDs. Which return guys will also be on the field as WRs or RBs? (Which ones are the best targets for late in the draft?)
Bob Niborg [Leftalone, CA]
A:
Just touchdowns, right? Not yards? It seems to me that you’re looking for guys who’ll score 6-plus TDs and also potentially add a touchdown via return. So I’m guessing you’re not interested in Ted Ginn, who’ll probably return a kick for a touchdown for the 49ers (maybe even two) but won’t make much of an impact as a wide receiver. The top crossover candidates, I think, would include C.J. Spiller (Buffalo), Darren Sproles (San Diego), DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia), Devin Hester (Chicago), Johnny Knox (Chicago), Percy Harvin (Minnesota). Maybe Josh Cribbs (Cleveland), who’s outstanding on returns and will play some quarterback in the Wildcat but isn’t much of a receiver. Those are the guys I’d be looking at.
Question 3:
I am in a 12-team league with two keepers. My players include Ray Rice, Matt Schaub and Anquan Boldin. I also have Matt Forte and Randy Moss but can’t keep them (since I kept them last year). I am leaning towards keeping Boldin since we are a point per reception league, thinking I can get a decent QB round 4-5. What do you think?
PETER MEYER [MERRILL, WI]
A:
I don’t see much of a difference between those guys. Neither, in my opinion, is a strong keeper. I’ve got Schaub as the 25th overall player on my board (the No. 5 quarterback), meaning I think he should be the first pick of your supplement draft but not protected. And I’ve got Boldin down at 36th. With Boldin’s history of injuries, I’m got him projected to play in only 15 games. If you want to assume that he’ll stay healthy, then he’d move up and be interchangeable with Schaub.
Question 4:
This isn’t a question, but a way to contact you and say how thrilled I am with the Custom Rankings and Custom Auction Values software. This amazing product is very valuable to me because our league has funky rules. Thanks!
Mojo Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
Thanks for the kind words. I hope that more users find and use these tools. (In particular, I hope more of the guys in regular leagues realize that there is substantial value in using the auction prices, so they can see relative values across positions – it’s a great way to generate an overall top 50). To access this software, click on “Custom Cheat Sheets” on the main page of the website. It’s in the gray bar at the top. After that, you need to fill out the “Scoring Profile” and “Auction Profile” sheets. Then it will apply our stat projections to your league’s exact scoring system.
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Question 2: My league changed to give...
Posted by MARK CLURE | Jul. 27 at 05:39 AM
What would happen to your answer if you did get the yards as well? We are considering that.