Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 03 at 07:26 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
If Brett Favre's retirement holds, what does this do to the fantasy value of Sidney Rice, considering he already has the bad hip? And if I decide to take wide receivers with my first two picks in a 10-team, no-PPR league, what caliber of running backs do you think will be available late in the third round and early in the fourth? Will Beanie Wells fall that far?
Paul Owers [RIVIERA BEACH, FL]
A:
If Favre doesn’t play, that definitely will be a blow to Rice (and all of Minnesota’s other pass catchers). Right now, I’ve got that team projecting to finish at 264 yards per game, with 29 TD passes. It wouldn't get that kind of production out of Tarvaris Jackson. A 10-15 percent drop in passing yards and a 20-25 percent drop in touchdowns would be in order. As for running backs who’ll be available in the fourth round in a 10-team league, I think you’re looking at guys outside the top 15. Maybe Beanie Wells. Maybe Jamaal Charles or Jonathan Stewart. More likely, Pierre Thomas, C.J. Spiller, Jahvid Best, Clinton Portis, Knowshon Moreno, Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown and LeSean McCoy.
Question 2:
Last year, I used the "Defense By Committee" approach, with Green Bay and Arizona. I'm in an auction league and paid $1 for each of those defenses towards the end of our draft. I felt good about it knowing that some owners in my league had spent upwards of $5 for a singular defense. The strategy worked well for me last year; although there were a couple weeks I felt the need to pick up a good "matchup" defense off the waiver wire. However, this year, I'm torn as I don't see two clear cut "Defense by Committee" teams that I can get for $1 apiece and I'm wondering if I give up too much by occupying an additional roster slot by carrying two defenses all season. What do you think of the "Defense by Committee" strategy and do you see two teams that fit that mold this season?
Craig Sobel [Odessa, FL]
A:
With Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator, I think the Bears will have the most “defense friendly” offense. If you could get Minnesota and Green Bay, it sure would be nice play 16 games against that offense. But I don’t think either the Packers or Vikings will go for the league minimum. At that position, I find myself drawn to the San Francisco 49ers. They seem to have a defense on the rise, and they have the added benefit of being in the NFC West. Maybe select just San Francisco, and worry about finding a backup defense later.
Question 3:
Our league has decided to give special teams yards and TDs to the individual players (1 point per 20 yards) and not the Defense. I know it makes certain individuals more valuable (Sproles, Cribbs, Harvin), but what's the best way to determine the additional value? Especially when it seems that when a player becomes more involved in the offense, he becomes less involved in special teams (Hester)? How would you adjust your rankings?
Travis Billman [BUFORD, GA]
A:
Josh Cribbs, Leon Washington, Fred Jackson. Those have been the leaders in all-purpose yards the last three years. (Yes, Jackson had more total yards than Chris Johnson last year). So it makes a huge difference. You definitely want to be aware of who’s returning punts and kickoffs for each team. Kickoffs are far more valuable. Based on what we’ve seen the last three years, I think you should assume that teams will average about 1,450 yards on kickoff returns this year, versus only 315 yards on punts. So if you can grab the kickoff returners for the Rams, Bills, Browns, Lions, Bucs and Bears, those guys should help you.
Question 4:
I am drafting third in a PPR 12-team league next week. Receivers get a full PPR and running backs get a half PPR. So I am deciding between Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson and Frank Gore. I like Gore’s upside but he is a bit of a injury risk. I think Johnson will score the most points but his QB has only ever played one full season. Jones-Drew is the safest, and I would rather secure a stud runner with my first pick. I’m hoping to start my first four rounds with MJD, Benson, Romo, Finley. Does this sound like a good plan? What way would you go? I’m just a little concerned with what my starting WRs will look like. We start 3 WR, 2 RB, QB, TE, and a flex.
David Kennedy [STEAMBURG, NY]
A:
It’s a PPR format, and you’re starting three wide receivers. So that’s the golden position in that format. You want guys who are going to catch 85-plus balls and 8-plus TDs. You’re not going to find those guys in the late rounds or on the waiver wire. You have to draft them. According to my numbers, 12 of the first 24 choices in your league should be wide receivers. I’ve got Andre Johnson at No. 1 overall, followed by Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Brandon Marshall.
Question 5:
Long-time reader – especially the updates through training camp which I think give me a big advantage. I have the first pick in a 12-team league. I am interested in trading my first pick if I can get good value. What do you think I should try to get?
RANDY NEWLAND [VILLA HILLS, KY]
A:
If you’re moving down five spots, you’re giving up about 35 points in production. So you would need the 33rd pick to break even. So a first and a third might get it done. If you’re comfortable sitting out the first round, maybe a trade of a the No. 1 overall pick, plus your final two choices, for picks in the second, third and fifth rounds. These are the kind of options I’d be floating around. See what people are willing to do.
Question 6:
Great magazine this year, as always. You're still the best fantasy publication out there (by far!). My question pertains to a dynasty/keeper league that is expanding. We're allowed to keep four players before the two new teams get to cherry pick our rosters (they can only select one player per team). We use standard scoring (PPR for WRs/TEs but not for RBs). 1 pt per 20 rec yards WRs, 1 pt per 15 yards for TEs. 1 pt per 10 run yards for RBs, and TDs for all positions rank from 4-6 pts, depending on distance). Of the following players who would you prefer to keep? Sidney Rice, Steve Smith (NYG), Jason Witten, Finley, Ryan Grant, Matt Ryan, J. Cutler, Ray Rice, Vincent Jackson.
Rob Dammers [MORRIS PLAINS, NJ]
A:
I’m not sure if I got the scoring system exactly right, but put me down for Ray Rice, Jermichael Finley, Ryan Grant and Steve Smith. Matt Ryan edges Sidney Rice for the alternate spot.
Question 7:
Is there any way to view archives of old articles? This is the first year I will be participating in the fanball.com challenge contests, and I know Justin Eleff has written a lot of good things regarding strategic decisions in those types of games (when to use purchases, depth of each position on the roster, etc.). However, I can't seem to find a way to access the older articles. If there are no archives on the site, would it be possible to gain access to those in some other way? Thanks for your time.
john stolzmann [LONG BEACH, CA]
A:
Yes. Click on his most recent column, which was posted on July 30 (or any of Justin’s columns). Then, look at the right column of the page. There’s a header reading “Past Articles.” Under it, you should see links for articles to all of his columns of the past few years.
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Question 1: If Brett Favre's retirement holds,...
Posted by DON PAVELKA | Aug. 03 at 08:09 AM
I am more worried about Rice's hip than his QB. Two years ago Jackson had 9 TD's and 2 (including post-season) interceptions. He also didn't have Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian was in his first year with team. Fantasy players should all know that receivers seldom perform well in their first year with a new team. The offensive line will be much better than two years ago AND better than last year simply because they have the same five guys playing the same five spots.
Question 1: If Brett Favre's retirement holds,...
Posted by BILL REHOR | Aug. 03 at 08:36 AM
I'm probably the only guy on the planet to think so, but Favre leaving might actually help Rice. Favre's biggest strength is his ability to spread the ball around. Less experienced QB's tend to zero in on a #1 guy - particularly if that guy is 6'4" and can use his reach to bail you out on bad throws. Harvin and Berrian will take a dive on my board, for sure, but if Rice is healthy I'm not lowering him too far.
Question 1: If Brett Favre's retirement holds,...
Posted by Duane Stay | Aug. 03 at 11:48 AM
Probably a more conservative offense, which means more AP. Suddenly AP and Chris Johnson become an even closer toss up if you have the first pick.
Question 1: If Brett Favre's retirement holds,...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 03 at 09:49 PM
I see Harvin as potentially benefiting, since maybe the Vikings would make more short throws around the line of scrimmage with a less-proficient QB, which would seem to be Harvin's area. Regardless, I ain't buying this retirement talk yet. One year and four days ago, he also told the Vikings he was retiring.
Question 1: If Brett Favre's retirement holds,...
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Aug. 04 at 01:49 AM
Duane, I don't know. Last year AP tried to put on a Barry Sanders show. He danced in the backfield instead of just hitting the hole, and then cutting. He was tackled around the line of scrimmage a lot. Their O line isn't as good as it was and The Defense will focus on AP. The hope will be that the O line focuses on run blocking, and manage to do it well. Plus AP will be an even bigger factor in the passing game as the QB security blanket. I don't know how this plays out.
Question 1: If Brett Favre's retirement holds,...
Posted by Matthew Kenerly | Aug. 04 at 03:24 AM
Andy, couldn't you argue that Harvin may also benefit if Brad Childress breaks out the Wildcat as a way to keep pressure off of Tarvaris Jackson?
Question 2: Last year, I used the...
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Aug. 04 at 01:35 AM
Question 2. SF has a wk 9 bye. I wouldn't draft another D. Use the spot for a high upside player at another position. Last year only 11 of the preseason top 20 RBs made the list of the top RB scorers at the end of the year. I would pick a RB with upside and have him for eight weeks to see if he breaks out, instead of a second D.
Question 4: I am drafting third in...
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Aug. 04 at 01:40 AM
I've been doing mock drafts. You don't need to spend a fourth round pick on Finley. Gates usually goes first in the fifth round. Finley is getting picked a few TE's after Gates. I would wait till after the first TE is selected and pick Finely with your next pick. In the unlikely event that you don't get him, wait and pick Zack Miller in the 10th round. TE is a very deep position this year.