Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 10 at 07:20 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I understand your uneasiness regarding the Bears offense, but ranking Jay Cutler 26th is a little ridiculous. Do you really think the likes of Sanchez, Young and Freeman will have better years than Cutler?
G.J. Viscum [PHOENIX, AZ]
A:
An error on my part. I was doing some minor surgery on the Chicago group. I was attempting to change their passing yards down from 266 to 263 per game. I accidentally keyed in 163 yards. That’s why you saw Cutler (and a whole bunch of other Bears) much lower than expected. A reader pointed this out, and those rankings have been corrected. Apologies.
Question 2:
My league just expanded from 12 to 14 teams with standard scoring aside from QBs getting 6 pts for TDs. With 14 teams, does the draft strategy change according to the cheat sheet or do you just roll with best player avail? Or does it force you to pick positions because of the length of time between picks and amount of players coming off the board?
Bill Petilli [Larchmont, NY]
A:
With 6 points for touchdown passes, that’s significant – 50 percent more than in a lot of fantasy leagues. So I imagine you’ll want to address the quarterback position early. The rule of 6 points for TD passes, I think, is more important than the move up to 14 teams.
Question 3:
I'm wondering why you are so down on Matt Forte. Dude had almost 1,000 yards rushing and 500 yards receiving last year. And the Bears were bad. I know you are worried about Martz coming in and throwing more, but couldn't that work out for Forte? Remember a guy named Marshall Faulk? I think his numbers will only go up.
MIKE CLARK [LAS VEGAS, NV]
A:
They also signed Chester Taylor. He’ll play a role. So you’ve got the Bears finishing with even lesser rushing numbers than last year, and Forte isn’t going to play as much. I won’t be drafting him in any league this year.
Question 4:
I am in a 14-team PPR league that has made defensive players very valuable by awarding 3 points per tackle. This gives best defenders the ability to score as many points as the top offensive players (QBs). Each team must have 7 defensive starters and 8 offensive starters. I traditionally don’t draft defensive players before the 8th round, but based on their greater value – earning more points and the need to start so many – does it make sense to draft them sooner?
Doug Alger [SAN JOSE, CA]
A:
Absolutely. As you make tackles worth more, it enhances the value of defenders. And at 3 points per tackle, you’re giving defensive players a chance to make an impact. Patrick Willis, for example, is a tackling machine. He had 152 tackles last year. Only eight other players (at any position) had more than 125. So there’s 27 tackles – 81 fantasy points – of value right there. I would expect you’ll see some middle linebackers go early in your draft – Willis, Jon Beason (Carolina), James Laurinaitis (Rams), Curtis Lofton (Falcons), Barrett Rudd (Bucs).
Question 5:
Long-time subscriber. 12-team serpentine draft. I am #3 and guy at #10 wants Aaron Rodgers bad. Peterson and Chris Johnson are going in picks 1 and 2. If I take Brees, Manning will go at 4. Guy at #10 will trade me his spots in rounds 1 and 2 for Rodgers and my second round spot. Also, we will swap spots in the 4th round, thus giving me an earlier spot to get my 4th player. Our league is heavy on drafting QBs early. Would you make this deal?
MARK COLON [CALEDONIA, MI]
A:
That’s not enough. According to my estimates, the 3rd pick is worth 20 more fantasy points than the 10th. You get only about half of that back by switching spots in the 2nd and 4th rounds.
Question 6:
My question involves keeper players. I play in a TD-only league (founded in 1991) and am considering a trade. I was offered Joseph Addai for Larry Fitzgerald straight up. We start 1 RB and basically 4 flex. What are your thoughts on this trade? Loyal reader since 1993.
Mike Craig [Kokomo, IN]
A:
I’d take Fitzgerald over Addai. I don’t think it’s even close. Both guys are 26 years old. Fitzgerald might be the best receiver in football – the guy you’d take before any other pass-catcher in a keeper format. Addai is just a mediocre starting tailback, and he’s had problems staying healthy. It wouldn’t surprise me if Donald Brown is the starter in Indianapolis a year from now. And even if assume Addai can stay healthy and keep the starting job, just look at the numbers. You get more production with Fitzgerald.
Question 7:
It appears from the magazine that you believe Ray Rice's rushes and yards may be reduced due to Baltimore's increased reliance on the passing game. However, do you think it's possible Rice might get a few more goal-line carries this season? I'm wondering if Ray Rice's role (w/McGahee) might expand a little more this year like Chris Johnson's did with LenDale White last season?
BARRY BROWN [COLUMBUS, OH]
A:
It’s possible, but I think McGahee will be their goal-line guy. I think McGahee still fits into their plans. I could be wrong (I thought White would be Tennessee’s goal-line back last year), but that’s my expectation.
Question 8:
I am in a 10-team PPR league that has a unique keeper rule. We have a 5th-round keeper rule. Whoever we pick in the 5th round is our keeper. We must keep him on our roster the entire year. Who are some players that may burst out this year or be in line for a starting gig next year who would be available (such as Mendenhall last year)? I have 10th pick in the round, so all the obvious picks like Spiller and Best will be gone.
MICHAEL KOLTON [GREEN BAY, WI]
A:
If you are required to protect your fifth-round pick, I might go the safe route. Maybe a wide receiver or tight end that you know will be in the lineup all year, giving you more roster flexibility.
Question 9:
My question centers around running back Toby Gerhart from the Vikings. I have pick 1.6 in our pt per reception league which is also a dynasty league. My RBs are R.Rice, Addai, D.Brown, M.Barber, T.Choice and J.Harrison. I could draft Hardesty but I don't really care for him. From my perspective, T Gerhart represents the best value as all the other rookie RBs & D.Bryant will be gone. I have viewed a lot of film of Gerhart and if Peterson were to go down, his value would be off the charts. I am loaded at wide receiver with Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson. I really can't see passing on Gerhart as he looks like a pretty complete back to me. Your thoughts.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
You’re not drafting right now, are you? You get to see these guys in a few preseason games, right? Let’s see what Gerhart and Hardesty look like on the field. For you, Hardesty comes with the added bonus of being on the same team as Jerome Harrison. That increases his value to you. And I would want to take a look at the other rookie wide receivers, most notably Mike Williams and Golden Tate of the two ’76 expansion teams (Tampa Bay and Seattle). So for now, go with Gerhart, but there’s still time for things to change.
Question 10:
I'm in a 10-team league. I am keeping Benson and Mendenhall. My draft position is 6th and am looking for some guidance. In practice drafts I am consistency left with either Gore, Turner, Brees, Manning, and A.Johnson. When I select a RB at great value, the top WRs and Brees/Manning are off. What would you recommend doing with the 6th and 14th pick?
Grant Markgraf [WASHINGTON, DC]
A:
I’d probably just selected the highest valued players at those spots. I’m guessing it would be a quarterback and a wide receiver.
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Question 2: My league just expanded from...
Posted by WILL DARLINGTON | Aug. 11 at 07:27 AM
Can't agree with you on this one, Ian. Been in a 14 team league for many years now. OK, so a QB gets 6 points for each thrown TD. If you combine all positions together at the end of the year and rank them by their total fantasy points, you will find that out of the top 30 players, 11-15 of them are QBs. Sure a top QB like Manning or Brees may be at the top of the list but it also means a QB chosen later in the draft could likely end up as a top 30 overall players too. By waiting a bit on your QB selection, with an early round selection you can hook up with a RB or WR who makes it to that top 30 list too.
Question 7: It appears from the magazine...
Posted by Dennis WYANDT | Aug. 11 at 08:33 AM
Your web site set-up my yardage/td top 250 players to use on draft day,my question concerns my #3 pick I see MJ with the toughest schedule and Gore with the easy schedule again my league scoring system places Gore as the #3 pick , do you agree ?