Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 07 at 09:53 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Ian - appreciate all the help over the years. I just drew the No. 1 pick in my most competitive league, am I CRAZY to take Jackson over LT? My thinking is equal yardage, but double the receptions (PPR), and I think Jackson's schedule projects to be much easier (Sea, SF, AZ twice each). We do award bonus points for long TDs giving LT another advantage, but those are extremely difficult to predict. It would probably be a huge gamble, so talk me off the ledge.
Joe DeBellis [MAHOPAC, NY]
A:
It's such a fine line between stupid and clever. That's what the St. Hubbins guy said in THIS IS SPINAL TAP. What you're leaving out of your Tomlinson-Jackson debate is the durability. Tomlinson is about as rugged as anyone who's ever played that position; Jackson runs with more of an upright style and takes a lot of punishment. For me to consider moving down from the No. 1 to the No. 2 spot (where I'd take Jackson), I'd need to have something like the No. 27 pick of the draft thrown in.
Question 2:
In your last mailbag question you did a great job of breaking down the best draft positions for a 12 team league. How does that change, if at all, for a 10 team league? I am in a league that we can pick our preferred draft position.
Paul Karrmann [CHESTER SPRGS, PA]
A:
For 10 teams, the top 2 draft slots projects to be Nos. 1 and 2, with not much difference between No. 10 and No. 3 for the next position.
According to my stat projections, after each team has selected four players, the overall relative values look something like this (assuming every owner drafts as I would):
Team 1 (374 adjusted points)
Team 2 (320)
Team 10 (293)
Team 3 (291)
Team 9 (288)
Team 4 (287)
Team 8 (285)
Team 5 (284)
Team 7 (280)
Team 6 (279)
Question 3:
Your last mailbag answered this question for a 12 team league. I want to know if the answer is different for an 8 tema league. I have the 3rd pick but I can pick any spot 3 through 8. You and most people have Larry Johnson third but he seems a little iffy between the holdout, the o line and the new QB. Do you think I should pick a spot farther down? I have to decide now, before I get your August 20th update.
RANDY NEWLAND [VILLA HILLS, KY]
A:
The first and second spots would still project to be the best. After that, spot 8 seems to be the best.
According to my overall board (and if each competitor selected as I would), then after the first four rounds, the franchise owner in the No. 1 spot would have 390 fantasy points (that’s above-and-beyond or “bang-for-your-buck” fantasy points, relative to players I would expect would be selected in about the 10th round). That’s 52 more than any other team. Team 2 would be a 338, followed by team 8 (328), teams 6-7 (317 each), team 3 (310), team 5 (309) and team 4 (306).
Question 4:
Please list last year's strength of schedule- winning percentage so can compare the change in strength of schedule vs this year
Arnold Schneider [WAYNE, PA]
A:
The numbers appear below, with 2006 winning percentage (of opponents), followed by the 2007 numbers followed by the percentage difference. Tennessee and Tampa Bay, it seems, will play the easiest relative schedule (in comparision to what they faced last year). While the Jets, Cowboys and Seahawks will play the schedules that take the biggest climbs up in difficulty.
Now what are we supposed to? Are we supposed to use this info to select Vince Young rather than Matt Hasselbeck in the eighth round of our draft? It doesn’t seem right to me.
2006 2007 Difference
.575 .520 90% Tennessee
.521 .473 91% Tampa Bay
.538 .504 94% Denver
.575 .539 94% Buffalo
.496 .469 95% San Francisco
.488 .461 95% Arizona
.538 .512 95% Cincinnati
.538 .512 95% Miami
.533 .508 95% Jacksonville
.521 .496 95% NY Giants
.521 .508 98% Cleveland
.500 .492 98% Green Bay
.517 .516 100% Indianapolis
.504 .504 100% Detroit
.500 .500 100% Washington
.533 .539 101% Oakland
.471 .477 101% Carolina
.496 .504 102% Houston
.463 .473 102% St. Louis
.496 .512 103% Pittsburgh
.483 .500 103% Philadelphia
.467 .484 104% New Orleans
.496 .516 104% Kansas City
.446 .465 104% Chicago
.479 .500 104% Minnesota
.513 .535 104% New England
.450 .473 105% Atlanta
.479 .504 105% San Diego
.479 .508 106% Baltimore
.454 .488 108% Seattle
.458 .496 108% Dallas
.475 .516 109% NY Jets
Question 5:
Hey Ian, I like the new web format. Question, I am in a performance scoring league exactly like outlined in your mag, only difference is QBs get 6 points for TDs. I draft 6th, would you consider Manning at that slot? You have him at 9 on your board I see.
PATRICK MAHONEY [Chesapeake Beach, Md.]
A:
If we're talking 6 points for TD passes, that changes things. According to my stat projections (which have Manning throwing almost 32 TD passes), that makes him the clear No. 3 player in the draft (though well back behind Tomlinson and Jackson). The other three big-time quarterbacks would come in between 12th and 18th.
Question 6:
Aloha! In reviewing last year's numbers, our 12 team league had 12 QBs in the Top 20 and no WRs in the Top 30 (Kevin Jones averaged more than Marvin Harrison!). We start 1 RB, 1 WR, and 3 of either. Given the lack of impact from WRs and the fact that everyone ends up with a Top 20 QB, would it be smart to add even more value to the top flight RBs and shift my auction dollars heavily in that direction?
Jason Lent [Honolulu]
A:
In that type of scoring system, I would just lump running backs and wide receivers into one position. And at that point, you can simply compare projected overall production. The top 9 should all be running backs. But after that point, looking at the rest of the top 50 (at that position), I see 22 wide receivers, 18 running backs and 1 tight end. So I wouldn't ignore wide receivers.
Question 7:
A couple questions on the Aug 6 update: I'm very interested in finding out your reasoning for elevating Lee Evans from #8 to #3 on your WR chart - there was no explanation in the team rundowns to indicate this big boost. Also, you indicated in your St. Louis rundown that "we think he'll be fine" re: Torry Holt's knee and yet you dropped him from #2 to #7? Finally, I'm assuming as in years past that there will be no updated auction prices to the initial July ones you posted, is this correct?
MICHAEL MONAT [SPRING HILL, TN]
A:
I actually didn't move Evans up. I moved the other guys down. Holt and Owens are banged up, and they're older guys. While I wouldn't call either of them high injury risks, I moved their projected games down a little (from about 15.5 games each to about 15 games each). That drops them behind Evans, since there wasn't much difference between those guys anyway. Similarly, Reggie Wayne has been just ahead of Evans all along, and now he's just nano-stats behind him. With the Tarik Glenn retirement, I moved Indianapolis' passing stats down just a little. Also, Anthony Gonzalez looks pretty good there, which could/should translate into Wayne see a slightly smaller portion of the pie. Bottom line: no real change in my opinion of Evans.
As for updating auction prices, it's a production we're working on. We're developing an interactive program that will allow users to plug in their scoring system, then get to-the-penny auction values kicked back at them. And it will be tied in with the August updates.
Question 8:
In a league that counts individual special teams TDs, but not yards; in what round would you consider drafting Devin Hester?
Shaun Hawkins [ALBANY, GA]
A:
I've got Hester as the No. 39 wide receiver in leagues based solely on touchdowns. 4.7 TDs; that's my over-under for touchdowns on him.
Question 9:
I am drafting No. 7 in a 12 team league. What are your thoughts on selecting Reggie Bush at 7, followed by Deuce McAllister at 18? A two-headed monster, but will there be enough offense in New Orleans to make these picks pay off? Thanks -Jim
JAMES DOYLE [PLYMOUTH MTNG, PA]
A:
I think Bush makes sense in that range – particularly if you’re getting 1 point for each reception. I’m in two industry leagues with www.fanexfootball.com, and I selected Bush in the first round in both of them – once at No. 3, and once at No. 10. In those, you get 1 point for each reception, which essentially doubles receiving production (and I believe Bush will be the most productive pass-catching back in the league).
As for McAllister at No. 18 overall, I don’t see that. McAllister, in my opinion, isn’t even one of the top 18 running backs.
Question 10:
I am in a 16 team keeper league. I have 2 possibilities. We are awarded 6 points for TD and 3 points for over 100 yards rushing or recieving. Edgerrin James and maurice Jones-Drew. Which one is the better keeper for this year?
Greg Zintel [PERRY, NY]
A:
I'd go with Maurice Jones-Drew. Younger. More explosive. Better supporting case. More upside.
Question 11:
I have a theory about draft guides. A person should use the "TD Only" draft lists even if you are are in a yardage league. The reason for this is that a player who scores more touchdowns will get the yardage naturally since they get more opportunities to get the ball. Also, it is more beneficial and more likely to get 6 points by scoring a TD, than it is to get 60 yards. This is especially true when it comes to the middle to late round and back-up player picks, as well as the TE position. Your thoughts?
John Frantz [OXFORD, PA]
Question 12:
Hello I am in a 12-team Sportsline regular scoring system as their private leagues, and my league has 1 point per reception for scoring. I can keep up to 2 players but lose a draft pick for the player I keep. I will keep Willie Parker and lose my 4th round pick but I have to keep either Chad Johnson (2nd round), Carson Palmer (3rd round) or Marques Colston (10th round). I draft 9th in odd rounds and 4th in even rounds keeping in mind that other teams will have to skip a pick due to their keepers. What do you think?
Johnny Rocket [Hartsville, TN]
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Question 3: Your last mailbag answered this...
Posted by DARYL DORSEY | Aug. 07 at 07:51 PM
Ian, Who would your # 8 pick be & your 2nd rd follow up pick. If serpetine draft. Thx, Daryl
Question 9: I am drafting No. 7...
Posted by JEFF CARTER | Aug. 07 at 07:34 PM
James, I had the same thought the other day, by selecting them both (maybe McAllister slips to 31), you have lowered your risk and if one has an off game, chances are the other one has a good game. However, if you look at how they performed last year, more often than not they had good and bad games together based more on the defense they were facing. So I think you're better off not selecting them both and going with more team diversification.
Question 12: Hello I am in a...
Posted by Daniel Burks | Aug. 08 at 06:43 AM
standard, 8 starter league. We are thinking about adding defensive players. I've never done this and was looking for some help. If you add defensive players, do you remove team D/ST? What value is typically assigned to sacks, INTs, tackles, etc.? At what point during the draft would you look to select these players? Thanks for your help.
Question 12: Hello I am in a...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 08 at 08:30 AM
Regarding defensive players, you can pretty much do whatever you want. Some leagues use team defenses and defensive players. A league I'm in uses 6 individual defensive players -- two DL, two LB, two DBs. A common scoring system could use anywhere from 1-2 points for tackles, 2-3 points for sacks or turnovers, etc. If you're just getting started, you might want to try it with fairly modest scoring. As far as drafting them, that varies too...depends on who you see as difference makers. A guy like Urlacher might go as early as the Bears defense would. Above-average defenders might go about when above-average defenses do (Patriots, Eagles). Average defenders would go toward the end. And as with RBs and WRs, guys will emerge during the season who will be available on waivers, due to injuries or whatever.
Question 12: Hello I am in a...
Posted by Daniel Burks | Aug. 08 at 10:16 AM
Sticking with the defensive players, how do you feel about points per tackle? 4 of the top 5 LBs were on bad teams. If you're on a bad team, playing a good offense, you're probably going to rack up some tackles if you're on the field all day. Do you think it's a good idea to reward individual effort on an overall poor unit? It seems like sacks and INTs would be a better measure of defensive success, giving DEs and DBs more value. Maybe this is more of a philosophical discussion.
Question 12: Hello I am in a...
Posted by Mike Sweeney | Aug. 08 at 06:50 PM
12 team league that gives 6 points per passing touchdown, -4 points per interception, and .2 per completion with -.2 per incompletion. Based on these figures, Ian, what would your top 10 quarterbacks be and how would they fit into the overall rankings?