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I think the switch from Matt Leinart to Derek Anderson could be very beneficial for Fitzgerald. Leinart appeared to be another Trent Edwards – way too eager to check down to the harmless throw underneath. Anderson is just the opposite. He tends to force balls into coverage, trying to get the ball to his top receiver. If you look at the numbers, you’ll see Anderson isn’t sacked often; that’s because he’s getting rid of the ball (even though sometimes he shouldn’t). His yards-per-completion numbers are very good (because he’s going downfield), and his interception percentage is poor (again, because he’s forcing balls). But Anderson wouldn’t have been benched two years ago in Cleveland if Braylon Edwards hadn’t kept dropping touchdown passes – or at least the benching wouldn’t have occurred until later. So circle back and project how Anderson’s playing style might fit into Arizona. Who is the best receiver in the league at catching passes when he’s got a guy or two all over him? That would be Fitzgerald. He’ll turn some of those ill-advised throws into big plays this year. If you don’t want Fitzgerald, I’ll be happy to take him on my team.

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I don’t think Houshmandzadeh can play anymore. He looked very ordinary in Seattle. A week before they cut him, I was watching Houshmandzadeh and asking myself, “Is this guy any better than their other receivers – Mike Williams? Deion Branch?” Certainly, he’s nothing special in terms of size or speed. I think he’ll be just an average No. 3 for them. His only hope of making an impact would be if an injury were to elevate him into the starting lineup.

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Here’s the process I use. I’m constantly tinkering with the projections and rankings. Once per week, I’ll go into the main file, sort the players by position, and go down the list. If I see a guy who looks too high or too low, I’ll adjust his forecast. And for some guys, I add some backdoor stats that you don’t see to make him higher. Vincent Jackson and Ben Roethlisberger fit into that class; they’ll both miss games via suspensions, so straight off the numbers, they don’t finish high enough in the rankings. Figuring that you can get by with lesser players until they return, I’ve elevated them. That’s also true for backup running backs like Bernard Scott and Javon Ringer – I wanted them a little higher than the pure stats indicate. In the preseason, however, with the various games going on, I’m changing forecasts strictly on what I see. Sam Bradford and Michael Hoomanawanui, for example, looked very good in the Rams’ game at New England, so I changed their forecast (not really knowing exactly how many guys at their position they might pass). That’s why occassionally there will be a blurb in the text that doesn’t mesh with the rankings. In the case of Bradford, for example, I wrote that he moves up a few spots. In reality, though, even though I had increased his projection by 5-10 percent, he was still in the same spot among quarterbacks. Have I wandered far enough off course? The short answer is that the rankings you get out of the Custom Scoring should be pretty much every bit as good as the ones on the pdf.

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If you’re giving points for yards, I think the logical approach is to forget about touchdowns and focus on teams matched up against opponents that score a lot. Those teams kick off the most, and there’s about almost four times as many yards gained on kickoffs versus punts (the league average was 1,417 vs. 316 per team last year). With a kickoff, even a poor returner tends to get about 20 yards every time he fields one. No surprise, therefore, that the four teams that allowed the most total kickoff return yardage last year were also the four teams that had 80-plus kickoffs returned – all teams with good offenses (Vikings, Chargers, Eagles, Packers). The Saints and Steelers were next in line, and they also had good offenses. Down at the bottom end of the spectrum, you have the teams with the crappy offenses – Bucs, Browns, Rams. The slight adjustment you need to keep in mind is to avoid the teams with touchback-caliber kickers. That’s why the Cowboys (David Buehler) and Falcons (Michael Koenen) had less than 50 kickoffs returned. The Raiders (Sebastian Janikowski) and Seahawks (Olindo Mare) are also to be avoided. In general, though, use the formula that more kickoffs will equal more success.

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That’s a good point. There’s definitely a value in having stars – you want to get those dollars to be working for you on the field. To move your team in this direction, reduce the number of players you feel are worth more than the $1 minimum bid. That will assign more of the dollars to the star players.

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I haven’t done estimated wins and losses for each team. I guess I just forgot about it, and nobody asked. For all of the strength of schedule charts I’ve done the stats – wins, loss, yards, touchdowns – have all been based on how teams performed last year. After we’ve played a few weeks, I’ll recalculate the charts, based on the current numbers.

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I think you analyze the guys and the matchup, generate your projection for each player, and go from there. Last year’s performance can be part of it. In this case, after looking at the team’s and the situation, I have Portis projecting to finish with about 3 more fantasy points this week.

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I wouldn’t worry too much about the double byes. You’ve got nine weeks to find a couple of guys to fill in there. Who knows who’ll get hurt by that time? You may want to just three or four handcuffs right now and count on one of those starters getting injured.

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I expect he’ll be their goal-line back and probably run for more touchdowns than Ray Rice. The touchdowns won’t be nearly as sexy, of course, but he may get in the end zone about 10 times. There’s an outside chance the Ravens might use LeRon McClain for some goal-line work, but I think that it will be McGahee, and that he’ll be pretty good in a TD-only format.

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I don't like carrying three quarterbacks. I would prefer to carry two, and have that roster spot freed up to use on a backup tailback like Javon Ringer, Bernard Scott or Brandon Jackson -- somebody who might be something special. If you're carrying three, I suppose Flynn should be the No. 3 (unless you figure you can get him anyway if Rodgers gets hurt).

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