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I would probably go with Freeman or Collins. Collins should put up better passing numbers – he’s at home against one of the worst pass defenses in the history of football. With Freeman, you get the added bonus of the running production, not having to worry about weather and also having a great matchup the following week (home against Seattle). Freeman is the guy I would roll with.

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To accurately measure that kind of topic, you would need to have dozens (hopefully hundreds) of games logged into a database, with temperature, wind, rain and all the noteworthy stats – yards, pass, run, turnovers, sacks, etc. I don’t have that. Sorry. But I can offer a general feel of the impact. It is my belief that when you start getting in poor weather (blizzards, heavy rain, temperatures under 25 degrees, high winds) it has an adverse affect on passing and kicking. It makes offenses more one-dimensional – it becomes more like football of the early ‘70s, when the roughest, toughest team wins. Overall scores get lower. The Browns and Bills have met in three poor-weather games in recent years, and they’ve ended with scores of 8-0, 6-3 and 13-6. I think of Pittsburgh’s 3-0 win over Miami in heavy rain in a Monday night game in 2007. In the last three home games for the Bills in both 2008 and 2009, neither team scored 20 points in all but one of those games. I’m seeing scores of 10-3, 16-3, 13-0, 19-13, 17-10 and 30-7 (Bills running over a Colts team playing backups last year). So scores will be down, and offenses will be down. Rushing probably will be up, while passing and kicking definitely will be down. But you asked specifically about defenses. Scoring systems vary from league to league, but in many fantasy formats, sacks and interceptions are key. I would guess that those numbers would be worse in bad weather. Teams don’t pass as much, so that would cause a decrease in the number of times the ball is in the air. And it’s also harder to catch when it’s windy, wet or cold – that’s hard not only on the pass catchers but on the defensive backs trying to catch the ball. So when you have really lousy weather, I don’t think that’s the kind of situation where you’ll tend to see a quarterback sacked 5 times or throw 3 interceptions. That’s just my opinion, though; I haven’t actually tested that theory by logging in all the games.

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Yes, I believe Collins is the guy to hook up the wagon behind. He’s had a largely unspectacular career, but I think he’s the guy who could carry you to the promised land (though you would have to again hop to another quarterback in the championship game – it’s like the Indiana Jones deal from I believe the third movie, where he has to step from stone to stone to stay alive in his search for the Holy Grail).

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I wouldn’t worry too much about Vick. Do your own work. Worry about what you can control – your own team. Vick has had a bunch of big games this year, and they’ve all come against really bad defenses – Washington, Jacksonville, Detroit, Dallas. He hasn’t been nearly as effective when playing against good defenses. He’ll see a good defense on Sunday – on the road against the Giants. I wouldn’t, therefore, start DeSean Jackson. I would just start my best guys.

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I’m all for benching star players. I have spent quality time myself pondering whether the Lewiston Cattle Prods should sit Michael Vick in favor of Josh Freeman in a TD-only playoff game. I have nothing against the idea of sitting Adrian Peterson. It’s a business, and we start the guys who give us the best chance to win – I don’t care what they did in the regular season. In this case, however, I don’t think you have the second back who’s good enough to plug in. Bradshaw is splitting time and isn’t as productive as a pass catcher. No way would I start him ahead of Peterson.

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I’ve gotten a few e-mails from readers who didn’t like where I slotted Johnson. They thought I had him too high. He’s playing down in Miami, where the Dolphins have held two of their last three opponents under 160 passing yards. And those three teams combined (Tennessee, Chicago, Cleveland) have thrown only 2 TDs. Fair enough, it’s not a super-duper matchup for Johnson, and maybe I’ve got him just a couple of spots too high. But he’s pretty much the only pass catcher they have there. They don’t throw to their tight ends. Lee Evans is out for the year. So is Roscoe Parrish. The weather won’t be a problem. So Steve Johnson, I believe, is one of those guys who could account for 40-plus percent of his team’s receiving yards, and if they throw any touchdowns in that game, there’s probably about a 50 percent chance of him catching them. Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown some ability to throw the ball. I think he can put up 200 passing yards there, and that gives Johnson a real nice chance to finish with 80 yards. He’s an outstanding prospect, I think, in a PPR format.

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Some leagues give a slight bonus to the team seeded higher – they get to start with a 3 or 5 point head start. Others allow the higher seed to pick their opponent, which is an intriguing option. I had a team sitting with a bye last week, and it occurred to me that I would have much rather had the guys playing in Week 14. Most notably, I had Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson playing at Dallas, which is a lot more appealing than playing at New York. So I would be in favor of a rule that would allow a team on a bye to pick its week – it could look at the matchups and choose to either go ahead and play in Week 14, or wait until Week 15. I don’t think you can allow that team to pick and choose by individual players, that would be too much of an advantage. I don't like doing anything with home-field advantage in the regular season. There's too much chance involved with this game already.

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Jennings is a far better receiver, but if Rodgers sits (and that’s the way it’s looking), I would definitely start Branch ahead of him. The Patriots are on fire right now, and he’s scored 4 TDs in his last three games.

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With Roethlisberger, I think you’re a little safer in terms of yards and role in the offense – he’s definitely the guy things will run thru. His playing style, I believe, could translate well into adverse conditions (he slips out of a potential sack, and defensive backs can stick with wide receivers only so long in adverse footing conditions). Kitna is a little more hit and miss. In his six starts, he’s been over 310 yards twice and under 190 twice. I see that Heath Miller is now unlikely to play; that drops Roethlisberger’s value some.

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Ask me this same question in late February and I will be better equipped to answer it. At that time, I will have the statistics better cataloged, so I will be able to compare overall numbers at running back, wide receiver and tight end. Definitely at tight end, the numbers are way up this year. At that position, I think it’s just chance – more guys than usual being unlucky with injuries. Concussions are a factor; teams are more aware and cautious with them than in the past. Aaron Rodgers and Heath Miller, for example, probably will sit out this week. Five years ago, if they felt the same way, they would probably play. Quarterbacks overall, however, aren’t getting hurt as much as in the past. There are more limits on how they can be hit, and that’s helping to keep them healthy.

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Harvin has no value this week and very little value in Week 16 at Philadelphia. I will have Bess and Moss higher on my board in both of those weeks.

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I wouldn’t worry too much about the other team. Just start your guys and hope that things fall your way. I would go with Manning against Philadelphia’s leaky pass defense (which has allowed more touchdowns than every defense except Houston’s). You’re just going to need him to man up and outproduce Freeman. You selected him before Freeman back on draft night; now let him do his job. I would select Knox before Harvin; both guys have the speed to score from long range.

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I’ve got Palmer slightly higher on my board.

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I believe I would go with Mendenhall and Moreno. I hope this doesn’t annoy McFadden, because he’s starting for the Delacroix Oilers in a playoff game this weekend, and I’m counting on him putting up big numbers against the Broncos. But not much difference between those guys. Three of them are good pass catchers, which helps in that format – Moreno and McFadden, in particular, catch lots of passes. But durability and reliability, I think, put McFadden and Best just a little bit behind.

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Roethlisberger is healthy. He’s just got a tough matchup this week. You’ll have to hope he can come through against a good Jets defense.

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