Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Dec. 23 at 06:03 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Hi Ian. Championship game. PPR league. 4 pt for Pass TD. 6 pt for Rush TD. Yardage league. 5 pt bonus for 300 yards passing.
I'm thinking of rolling the dice and starting Tebow over Campbell, Eli Manning and Big Ben(Thursday). In my league 15 points is a good week for a QB. If Tebow can rush for a TD and even 40 yards that's 10 pts not counting any passing stats. You like this gamble or do you think my other QB's will out perform him?
Michael Stanco [DANIA BEACH, FL]
Yes. I would start Tebow over Roethlisberger.
I will discuss in more detail in the mailbag tomorrow.
Many leagues continue to list Joe Webb as a QB/WR and it is lighting about the chat boards. In a 2-WR format that gives: 1 point per 50 yards passing, 6 points per passing touchdown, -2 points per interception, 20 yards per point rushing, 20 yards per point receiving, and 6 points per reception touchdown would you start him ahead of Roddy White or Andre Johnson this week?
Jeffrey Wahl [NEW YORK, NY]
I should have addressed this issue in the Weekly. That was an oversight. My bad. While it is clear that Joe Webb is a quarterback right now, I realize there was some uncertainty heading into the season whether he might return kicks or play wide receiver. Indeed, Webb was listed only as a wide receiver in the NFL’s 2010 Record & Fact Book. The issue of whether he would be a receiver or quarterback goes back to before the draft – he has the physical skills to play wide receiver. But with the Vikings, he’s really been a quarterback all along. He was listed as a quarterback in their 2010 media guide. He is listed as quarterback on their roster right now. He has been listed as a quarterback (and only a quarterback – not a “QB-WR”) on the official rosters submitted for each of the team’s 18 preseason and regular season games. So if Webb is eligible to play wide receiver in a fantasy league, it would have to be because of some specific rule in your league’s rulebook (something along the lines of, “players are eligible to play whatever position they are listed at in the NFL Record & Fact Book”). Because clearly, he is not a wide receiver – at least not right now. But I think you are more interested in the secondary issue: If he’s eligible as a wide receiver, then where does he rank? It looks like he’ll start on Sunday, and he’s playing against an awfully soft Philadelphia defense. The Eagles rank 21st against the pass (242 yards per game), and they’ve allowed 30 TD passes – 3rd-most in the league. More notably, Webb looks like he might be the best running quarterback short of Michael Vick. In less than a game’s worth of action this year, he’s carried 7 times for 54 yards and a touchdown. Webb is raw as a passer and weather could be an issue, but I think it’s reasonable to project him to pass for something along the lines of 175 yards, as well as adding another 35 yards rushing. Those, I think, are conservative estimates. So in yardage terms, Webb grades out at 5.25 points in your league. That would be equivalent to White or Johnson finishing with 105 receiving yards. So in yardage terms, Webb gets the edge over either of those guys. In terms of touchdowns, I think Webb is a very safe choice for one touchdown; with his run-pass ability, I think it’s at least 50-50 whether he gets up to 2 (maybe you even get lucky and he scores 3). White and Johnson, on the other hand, are both guys who tend to catch about a third of their team’s touchdowns; according to our projections, each of those guys has a 40-45 percent chance of scoring. The negative points for interceptions pulls it back a little (Webb will throw at least 1 interception and might throw 2-3), but I don’t think there’s any question that you start Webb – if he’s eligible.
I am assuming your ranking of Tebow was an error or joke that will be corrected. If it is a true a representation of your team’s expertise I'm done with Fantasy Index.
R. Hodges [USA]
Tebow, believe it or not, actually projects to be even better than where he is ranked. He was the No. 2 quarterback in the initial run through. I had to dumb down the projections significantly to get him to fall a few spots. I’m not saying he’s the league’s next great quarterback; I’m not sure he’ll ever really establish himself as an average, functional starter – I don’t know if he can pass well enough. But right now, I’m just looking at this week, and when I analyze that game, it leads me to believe that Tebow is a very safe choice to be a productive quarterback in a typical fantasy format. Sure, he is inexperienced, but look at who he’s playing: The Broncos are at home against Houston, which has one of the worst pass defenses in the history of pro football. The Texans are allowing 289 passing yards per game, and they’ve allowed 31 TD passes. Kerry Collins passed for 164 yards and 2 TDs against them in the first half last week. So while Tebow is underdeveloped as a passer, I think he has a good chance to throw for 230 yards and 1-2 TDs in this game. It’s his role as a runner, though, that makes Tebow such an intriguing option this week. He carried 8 times for 78 yards and a touchdown in the loss against the Raiders. He’s big and has good mobility, and he’s not shy about taking off – they used him on designed quarterback draws on a number of plays. So it is my belief that he has a very good chance to run for another 50 yards in this game, and if the Broncos score a rushing touchdown, there’s probably about a 50-50 chance that it will be Tebow who runs it in. You did see some of Tebow’s games at Florida, right? He loves calling his own number around the goal line. He ran for an SEC-record 57 TDs in college. If we make the assumption that Denver will score about 22 points against the Texans (who are allowing 28 points per game), then everything starts to point towards Tebow being a very valuable fantasy commodity. I actually had to dial back his projection to 203 passing yards, 38 rushing yards, 1.09 TD passes and .44 TD runs to get Tebow to fall out of the No. 2 spot among quarterbacks. For at least this week, I think he could be kind of a poor man’s Michael Vick.
You state in the weekly that you have Davone Bess slotted lower than usual but in a PPR format you have rated higher than I've seen him in weeks – top 10, above receivers like Hakeem Nicks? What gives?
David Barenborg [MERCER ISLAND, WA]
OK. Fair question (and please, don’t hesitate to send in these kind of queries when you notice something – that’s exactly what the Mailbag is for). As I outlined in the text of the Weekly, I don’t consider it to be a great matchup for Miami’s passing game. Chad Henne has been playing poorly, so I think they’ll try to run the ball more this week. I saw last week that they dusted off the Wildcat near the goal line, with Ronnie Brown running one in. Detroit’s defense has been surprisingly decent against the pass recently. In their last seven games, the Lions have allowed only 8 TD passes and an average of only 226 passing yards (which is slightly better than average this year). Nevertheless, with Brian Hartline out for the year and Brandon Marshall not having a huge, dominating-type year, Bess is a huge part of that passing game. He got shut down by the Jets, but look at what he’s done in his last three other games. 6 for 111 at Oakland, 6 for 67 against Cleveland and 9 for 78 against the Bills. I think he’s a safe choice to catch a half-dozen passes. I like Bess. Nicks is very good as well, though; if the weather checks out OK in Green Bay, I would have no problem starting Nicks over Bess.
Headed into the Super Bowl game. I've limped along at RB2, picking up waiver wire RBs (Hightower for Week 14, J.Stewart for Week 15) to survive. One waiver wire pickup per week; TDs plus yardage scoring. M.Bush, Lynch, and Torain are available for Week 16. Would you pick up any of those to pair with Michael Turner, or would you go with either of the earlier pickups at RB2?
CRAIG SMITH [OZARK, MO]
I’d be looking at Torain and Lynch. Torain is pretty much a full-time player, and he’s going against a Jacksonville defense that was awfully soft against the run last week. Lynch hasn’t made much of an impact this year, but the Seahawks are at Tampa Bay, and the Bucs have really struggled against the run. Tampa Bay is allowing a league-high 4.9 yards per carry, and it’s given up over 180 rushing yards in back-to-back games against teams with lesser ground games (Washington and Detroit).
I'm loaded at WR, and I need 4 of these 5 to start ... Wayne, Jennings, Wallace, Holmes and Fitzgerald.
GARY DETRICK [CARLSBAD, NM]
Right now, I’d be planning to sit Santonio Holmes. I would consider Reggie Wayne and Larry Fitzgerald safe as starters. I would continue to monitor the weather and other situations with Jennings and Wallace, but I think Holmes is the guy who sits.
Question 1: Hi Ian. Championship game. PPR...
Posted by BRYAN BERTSCH | Dec. 26 at 10:43 PM
You nailed Tebow! Well done once again, Ian.
Question 2: Many leagues continue to list...
Posted by jason gingerich | Dec. 24 at 01:03 AM
I am facing exactly this situation in my league, where Webb is eligible either as WR or QB, and it gives me a dilemma. My league starts 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, K, D. My sure starters are listed below: QB Freeman RB Foster RB C. Johnson WR Roddy White WR Flex: TE, K, D: irrelevant to discussion For the WR and flex positions I have A. Peterson (who would be obvious in the flex but for his injury question), Gerhart (to back him up), Brian Westbrook, Deion Branch, and Webb. So I assume i will start one of the RB's at flex (prob. whoever starts for MIN, though Westbrook has a better matchup.) But for the WR slot I could legitimately start Webb over Branch. Am I crazy to do this or is it the way to go? League scoring is: * 6 pts for TD runs/passes, 1 per 31 yards for QBs. * 0.5 PPR and 1 pt per 13 yards for WRs (basically equivalent to no PPR, 1 point per 10 yards.)
Question 3: I am assuming your ranking...
Posted by BRYAN BERTSCH | Dec. 23 at 12:09 PM
A little reservation about Tebow vs. the Texans: Keep in mind the Texans shut out the Titans with Rusty Smith at QB. As bad as their secondary is, a QB still needs some talent (or NFL experience) to take full advantage. So throw out the whole 289 passing yards per game and with that the notion of Tebow throwing for 230 yards. Not saying I don't like your aggressive outlook, but best be careful relying on the numbers too much.
Question 3: I am assuming your ranking...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Dec. 23 at 02:14 PM
Agreed. There is some risk involved. But Tebow comes out as a top 5 if he's down at 205 passing yards. I think he's better than Rusty Smith, who was a 3rd-string quarterback who got quickly elevated because of injuries. Plus, this game is in Denver, not Houston. We'll see, of course, but I like Tebow this week.
Question 3: I am assuming your ranking...
Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | Dec. 28 at 04:44 AM
DONT LET THE DOOR HIT YOU IN THE ASS R HODGES!
Question 6: I'm loaded at WR, and...
Posted by CHRIS KEPLER | Dec. 24 at 05:31 AM
Concerned with the lack of info available on Andre Johnson. As he plays in a late game, it's kind of vital to know if he's playing for me (If he's not, I have to start Brandon Gibson in the early game). Do you think this will be a true "game-time" decision, or have they already made up their mind to rest him, and are keeping the Broncos off balance?
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