Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 11 at 04:45 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
We have just instituted a scoring of 1 point for every 40 return yards (punts and kickoffs). Realizing that with the kickoffs being moved forward this year, which WR/RB would you bump up given this additional scoring for the league? Thanks
PATRICK MAHONEY [CHESAPEAK BCH, MD]
A:
That kickoff rule will have an impact. I will let you read the feature story in the magazine about it. I spent a few days looking into it. Touchbacks will zoom upward, meaning far fewer returns and fewer yards. Over the last three years, teams have averaged 1,448 yards on kickoffs per season. I think that number will go down to 800-900 yards. It's a big deal, and players like Leon Washington, LaRod Stephens-Howling and Marc Mariani will be adversely affected. That said, kickoffs should still dwarf punts. With a kickoff, there's that free 15-20 yards on the front end. Even the worst returners in the league will average close to 20 yards per return. That's not there on punts, so teams have averaged only 325 yards per season on punt returns the last three years. Repeating for clarity: over the last three years, teams have averaged over 1,100 more yards on kickoffs rather than punts. So I want guys who'll return kickoffs, and I want returners from bad teams (more attempts = more total yards). If you can get a bad-weather return (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, etc.) those teams might not get as caught up in the touchback explosion. Brad Smith of the Bills. Josh Cribbs of the Browns. Johnny Knox might be Chicago's best receiver, and I hear he'll return kickoffs this year. Players who ranked in the top 20 in kickoff return yardage last year who'll also start or play prominently in the field this year: Jacoby Ford, Darren Sproles, Amendola, C.J. Spiller, Harvin, Cribbs. Punt returners who went for more than 300 yards last year who'll also start this year: Hester, Amendola, and Mike Thomas, with Eddie Royal and Davone Bess close.
Question 2:
We have a keeper league that rewards points based on length of TD and yardage earned, no PPR. Our playoff system mirrors the NFL whereby only NFL playoff players on your team are eligible for the fantasy playoffs played at the same time as the NFL Playoffs. I have to decide between Marques Colston and Santonio Holmes as my last keeper.
PAUL HAZEN [GRANADA HILLS , CA]
A:
I’ll go with Holmes. Colston has had a lot of knee issues; I worry about his ability to last for a full season. (And I think Holmes might be better anyway.)
Question 3:
We are holding our draft the night of the first game. I am concerned about the game starting and the draft still in progress. What do you do about Defenses and Kickers that are picked later in the draft, especially if they scored already. Should they be allowed to start them?
ERIC FEINGOLD [GARDEN CITY, NY]
A:
We have this argument in the Daily Football League every year. We almost always select on the Friday night after that Thursday opener. We use an auction format. I have proposed many times to auction affected players before via email. Those players would all be assigned, and teams would either start (or not start) them before the Thursday game begins. But I get voted down every year. Instead, we let their points stand, and you may retroactively start them. This affects the value of said players – if a backup wide receiver catches a touchdown in that Thursday game, he’ll definitely be purchased. I was the first to exploit this loophole way back when, buying Nate Washington with one of the last choices of the auction for a dollar or two. He had caught a long touchdown (against the Dolphins, I think), and we go double value in our league for scores over 50 yards.
Question 4:
I'm so impressed you guys didn't bail despite the fact that the loss of shelf sales has got to hurt the bottom line. And not only did you push forward, you're putting in just as much work. Top notch as you have been for me for 15 years now. But just because there is no printed version doesn't mean you get to dodge the annual question. It looks like had you gone to print, Foster was the easy choice for the cover. But as a Packer fan I have to ask, was serious consideration given to putting SB champ Aaron Rodgers on the cover?
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
As a Rodgers guy, you might not be happy with the magazine. I selected him as the No. 1 quarterback, but I don’t know if you’ll like the full-page photo of him in the quarterbacks section. He’s wearing the “Throwback” uniform from last year – the one with the blue shirts and brown helmets. I didn’t see the photo until Wednesday. If I had seen it sooner, I would have told the layout guy to replace it with a photo in the traditional uniform.
Question 5:
What the heck is going on with all the disrespect of Portis. Most cable and web sites don't even mention him. The guy was and still could be deadly, he is also young on the good side of 30. So why wasn't he one of the first RB's to sign with a team?
CAL HOSKISON [CARPINTERIA, CA]
Question 6:
Loyal follower since I can remember. Quick question, do you think life changing events like marriage or the birth of a child have any impact on fantasy stats? With Tony Romo getting married and Adrian Peterson celebrating the birth of his first child, I'm curious if there's anything I should expect.
Mike Fair [WOODBURY, MN]
A:
You just caused me to spit Code Red Mountain Dew on my computer screen. Thank you. If I had more time, I would do try to give this question the full Freaknomics treatment – get out the stats and personal bios out for all the players and try to document whether there was any correlation with this kind of stuff. But it would be difficult, since players also get older and more experienced – it would be hard to assign all of the blame or credit on the outside events. For some players, getting married or having children might help to settle them down or whatever. For others, it might contribute them to not playing with the same focus or hunger. I know that Antonio Cromartie has a lot of kids, and he’s a good cornerback – albeit a risk taker. Travis Henry also has many children, and I don’t think he quite fulfilled his potential. Jeff Garcia played his best ball before he married the Playboy model. Tom Brady played very well last year, and he’s married to a Brazilian super model. Brady’s two best seasons have come in the year after the births of his two children – one with Bridget Moynahan. Any of this changing your draft board?
Question 7:
I have a scenario here that I'm taking some heat for in my ten team semi-keeper league. It is a non-PPR with 6 pts for all TDs and an extra 3 points for out of position scores (e.g. QB rushing scores are worth 9 and RB receiving TDs are worth 9) I have two keepers and am keeping Rodgers and decided to trade Ray Rice for my choice of either Calvin Johnson or Roddy White. The other owner is going to have Charles to go with Rice. Owners think I am nuts since I am allowing this owner to potentially have two top five RBs. But I believe that that old philosophy of grabbing top backs is old hat. I would rather dominate at QB and WR if I could and then choose from the plethora of mid tier RBs. What do you think?
Chris Fluck [Philadelphia, PA]
A:
Agreed. The idea that you are required to build around running backs is outdated. One factor to consider, when weighing receivers against backs, is durability. Rowdy Roddy White is far less likely to get injured than Ray Rice.
Question 8:
Who are your top 5 "over 30" RB's?
ADAM HOLTZ [ROCHESTER, MN]
A:
With the way athletes train nowadays, I think running backs can be fine at 30 and 31. You see running backs at that age rushing for over 1,000 yards every year. Even Ricky Williams, at 34, I think will be OK in the backup role for the Ravens.
Question 9:
Keeper league, can only keep 2 of these players. Jamaal Charles for a 2nd round pick, Mike Wallace in the 6th, or Tashard Choice in the 11th. With Barber being cut is that enough to keep Choice over either of the other 2?
VICTOR KITZES [MAPLE VALLEY, WA]
A:
You go Wallace or Charles. Choice is hurt and might not even be the backup in Dallas – there’s been talk they might even trade him.
Question 10:
I know that you won't be able to go to presses with a hard copy magazine because of the lockout, it would be impossible to get them on the stands before most drafts take place. However, I am actually a COLLECTOR of your magazine (much to the dismay of my wife). I have purchased and kept every one since Jim Kelly and Andre Reed won me a championship in 1991, back when the magazine had a different name! Is there ANY way you guys plan on printing out the edition, even if its late... for guys like me?
Brian Bonic [LANSING, IL]
A:
I think the route to go, if you’re a collector, is to print up a nice version of the cover. Take the file to a Kinko’s and have them print the cover on a nice piece of paper. (If you draft Arian Foster and he works out for you, that is; if his hamstring issues re-emerge and your team goes 6-8 this year, you won’t want to be looking at that cover in the offseason.)
Question 11:
Love your mag, used it for at least 10 years. Its the best analysis of any of the mags. I understand its not out this year, but I cannot figure out how to access your rankings and narrative on the website once its released on 8/10.
joe cullen [MENLO PARK, CA]
A:
It’s up there now. You should be able to go in and find it. The magazine is just the same, except you don’t get the paper.
Question 12:
I understand you can't get out a hard copy of the magazine this year and its really cool that you'll at least have an electronic copy available for purchase, but to charge the same price I think is a little unfair. Were I to print the whole thing, thats 200 pages plus a printer cartridge..too expensive, or I have it electronically..VERY inconvenient! Don't think much thought was put into this..just sayin.
George Taylor [MOOSUP, CT]
A:
It’s not ideal. I would have preferred to do it in the traditional format. We’ll move fewer units than we did last year; we don’t have all those magazines on shelves all over the country. I can tell you that on my end, I had to put in even more hours on this product. I spent the same amount of time researching each team and player, then had to throw away a lot of completed work and rebuild it after all the trades and signings in early August.
Question 13:
I am in the 4th year of our keeper league; will have the 11th pick overall. My team last year was stacked and I can't decide who to keep. I am keeping Vick since I added him via waivers, but need help with my other option. Calvin Johnson in the 2nd round (14th pick) or Andre Johnson in the 1st round (11th pick). We are a PPR league and I want to keep one of these two guys. I also have Welker who I could keep 3rd round (we're in Mass. so Pats go higher than should). Thanks-
tim lawlor [everett, MA]
A:
Calvin Johnson is younger, so I will go with him. Welker is starting to slow down, I think, and the Patriots have more receivers now, so I wouldn’t use a third-rounder to protect him.
Question 14:
Now that Foster pulled his hammy what kind of value does Ben Tate now have?
ERIC SCOLNICK [Redmond, WA]
A:
Also has hamstring injury – and so does Steve Slaton. Derrick Ward is the only Texans tailback with healthy hamstrings.
Question 15:
You may have answered this, but who are your biggest sleepers at QB, RB and WR for 2011?
RYAN RENSHAW [WILLIAMSTOWN, NJ]
A:
I will throw out one nobody that I didn’t mention in the magazine. Riley Cooper. If there’s something to this Jeremy Maclin illness and he misses some amount of time, I would expect Cooper, not Steve Smith, to be the starter opposite DeSean Jackson. (I think Jason Avant is a great slot receiver, but I think Phildelphia would leave him in that role.)
Question 16:
Ian, your analysis has helped me win several titles, including 2 leagues last year. Who would you keep, Foster in the 4th round or Vick in the 16th. PPR league, with 6 pts for TD passes?
Ernest Moody [FOREST HTS, MD]
A:
In ballpark terms, would you rather have possibly the No. 1 player and give up a fourth-rounder? Or are you better taking a second-round pick in the 16th round? My gut tells me that Vick is the better value. Injuries will determine the winner, with Foster nursing the hammy and Vick taking an unbelieveable amount of punishment.
Question 17:
With Houston FB Vonta Leach leaving for Baltimore; what does the move do for Arian Foster's value and productivity and does the move help Ray Rice considerably?
Anthony Cillis [LaGrangeville, NY]
A:
I don’t think it’s a huge deal for either team. We’re not talking about John L. Williams here. Vonta Leach. Foster will still be great, and Rice is still a great all-around back (who doesn’t carry at the goal line).
Question 18:
Like everybody I'm anxious to see the first set of rankings. Are guys like Vincent Jackson and Miles Austin WR1 guys this year? In doing different mock drafts these guys are going in the mid to late 3rd round where I'd think they should be higher. There were no injury issues with them. Asking because in the event you go qb/rb rb/rb and you want to grab a good WR in the 3rd that you should walk away very happy if you landed one of them.
Bill Petilli [Larchmont, NY]
A:
With Austin, there’s the issue of whether you’re even getting the best wide receiver on that team – Dez Bryant could be a lot better this year. With Vincent Jackson, they use him primarily on deep routes. If you want me to make it sound more football-like, “he runs a limited route tree”. They don’t use him on quick screens, slants and whatnot – that’s why he averages over 17 yards per catch every year. (Damn good player, though.)
Question 19:
Can I get your quick take on the Green Bay running back situation? I have a trade offer of Santonio Holmes and a good draft pick for the Packer backfield (Grant and Starks). It's a dynasty PPR.
Mike McGraw [N CHELMSFORD, MA]
A:
I’ll take Holmes and the pick, I think. Neither Grant nor Starks will play full time, and I’m not sure either will ever be much of a pass catcher. They’ve got John Kuhn there as well, and he was their goal-line guy at the end of the season. Once the Jets got Holmes worked into their offense last year, he caught 8 of the team’s final 16 TD passes. I think he can be a top-20 receiver.
Question 20:
Glad we're back for another season! I have a chance of redemption for you, so to speak. Prior to the 2004 season, I could only keep 1 RB between Ahman Green (career year in 2003) and L.T. You and then I chose Green ... ugh. That cost me a win or two over the next 5-6 years, but it's behind us. Okay, it's 2011 and I can only keep 1 between A. Foster and A. Peterson. I have been leaning Foster, but the addition of McNabb to the Vikes is better than it was prior. What are we doing?
Jeff Carter [FRANKLIN, TN]
A:
I’ll go Foster. Peterson already has a lot of carries and years behind him. With his playing style, I don’t think he’ll have a long career.
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Question 1: We have just instituted a...
Posted by Sean Chi | Aug. 12 at 08:11 AM
I can read it at work now and my boss is none the wiser.
Question 1: We have just instituted a...
Posted by Stephen Moyer | Aug. 13 at 02:57 AM
Sorry, guys, I want my flipping real-life magazine, which I read on the beach south of Santa Cruz every freaking year. Offer the electronic version, sure, but the magazine has to stay! I'm begging you.
Question 3: We are holding our draft...
Posted by RYAN BAKER | Aug. 12 at 03:19 AM
Maybe add in if you start a plyer from that game... He has to start week 2 also, or not start week 2 if someone tries to bench a regular because they had a bad night!
Question 3: We are holding our draft...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 12 at 04:32 AM
I have a league that always drafts on that Friday. I used to think it was a problem, now I don't see it that way. Everyone has the same information from the previous night; if someone elevates one player in their rankings to help them win that one week, they just placed slightly more value there than someone else. It's a loophole everyone can utilize, and sometimes it backfires; maybe you miss out on a player with more lasting impact with that pick to take a guy who had a big Week 1.
Question 4: I'm so impressed you guys...
Posted by Stephen Moyer | Aug. 12 at 01:40 AM
Those throwback unis are the greatest in NFL history.
Question 4: I'm so impressed you guys...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 12 at 01:55 AM
I agree, I love throwback unis. Teams should wear them more often, I don't even care that it's just a marketing cash grab. They're cool.
Question 12: I understand you can't get...
Posted by Eric Schmit | Aug. 12 at 04:08 AM
Ian, I think that digital is the way to go. I have downloaded your spreadsheets for years now and I think its great to have the magazine available as well. Will you have an e-copy available next year?
Question 12: I understand you can't get...
Posted by Brian Grzybowski | Aug. 12 at 04:31 AM
I thought you should charge more for the digital version. Your competitors that put out a useless (and quickly outdated) print version charged their regular price for crummy information. After all, we are paying you for the INFORMATION, not for the paper and ink. Sure, I miss having my 2 copies this year (one for upstairs, one for downstairs) but I'm not going to miss finishing in first place.
Question 12: I understand you can't get...
Posted by Paul Owers | Aug. 12 at 07:01 AM
Yeah, I think the digital version is more valuable than the traditional print magazine. I understand why you print the magazine in early summer during a regular NFL offseason, but can't say I mind the digital version including all these late-breaking moves.
Question 12: I understand you can't get...
Posted by JEFF LADIN | Aug. 12 at 01:49 PM
i like the idea of a magazine coming out so late.. the info seems to be more relavant maybe next year you can put a early addition on the stands then a late e-version in august...
Question 12: I understand you can't get...
Posted by Joseph Russo | Aug. 12 at 11:04 PM
This years electronic version is the most relevant "magazine" available - by far. We should be thrilled we have access to all this updated & accurate information. Yes, the advertisements are clutter (understatement), yet understandably very necessary. I spent an hour yesterday and cherry-picked ~90 pages and printed them out. It is very convenient to just bring a few pages with you to work, etc. I think Fantasy Index has now sent a precedent, and Ian & staff will need to provide this to us each August from now on...
Question 12: I understand you can't get...
Posted by Paul Owers | Aug. 13 at 06:09 AM
Dave: You make it sound as if it's FFI's fault that the lockout happened. What did you expect Ian and the staff to do? Put out a magazine in July that's worthless? You need to stop whining and accept this as a one-year inconvenience.
Question 12: I understand you can't get...
Posted by L DALE GANDER | Aug. 15 at 08:41 AM
Yeah, the only viable BUSINESS option this year was to not publish a mag, digital or otherwise. FFI is doing us 20-year subscribers a huge service by putting in tons of hours even though their sales will probably be down 80%. They'll never tell us, but I'm guessing they're losing money on this edition apparently for the sole purpose of ticking off Dave. LOL Thanks again FFI - World Class outfit which is why I am and will continue to be a lifetime subscriber!