Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 09 at 04:00 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
What do you think the chances are that Arian Foster is active in week 1 and yet Kubiak gives him no or very few carries?
ZACH LEAVITT [Highlands Ranch, CO]
A:
Foster didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday. I would be shocked if he played a significant role on Sunday. He probably won’t even suit up. The Texans can beat Indianapolis without him (they have other capable backs), so there’s no reason to risk him. I think they'll have Ward and Tate split time.
Question 2:
I should have known. I drafted CJ in my draft, which was a few days before he signed. I got him at 12, which I am now thankful for. I then drafted P.Manning with the 1st pick of the 4th round. I thought he would somehow be ready, but looks like he's not. I'm even wondering if it will be for more than 1 game too. I drafted Stafford a few rounds earlier than normal just to have someone I can toss in there. Problem is I also drafted Wayne. How bad is his stock hurt now. Is he a guy I can safely use as a flex with R.White and B.Marshall as the other wr's?
Bill Petilli [Larchmont, NY]
A:
Wayne takes a big hit. So does Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. With Manning healthy and 100 percent, the Colts would average something like 280 passing yards per game and finish with something like 31 TD passes. For grading purposes on those guys, I think you just assume Manning is gone for the year. With Kerry Collins or Curtis Painter at quarterback, I think the Colts are a 5-11 type team. I think you move them down to about 215 passing yards per game and maybe 20 TD passes. In the last four years, Collins has averaged only 189 yards in the games he’s started with 29 TDs in 29 games. So those guys guys take a huge drop. Now we had already worked in some of that decline in the recent versions of the Cheat Sheat. We had factored in that there was a chance Manning would sit, and that he wasn’t going to be quite the same guy anyway (having not played in the preseason). On my current board, I’ve got Clark about 17th among tight ends and Wayne about 30th among receivers.
Question 3:
Longtime subscriber here. I'd like to make one enhancement request to your cheat sheets. Under the tight end rankings, you could list for each player where they would rank if they were grouped with wide receivers. Example, Jason Witten would have a (20) next to his name. This would allow you to have a wide receiver only ranking, and also allow you to rank more wide receivers on the sheet. Right now, you only list about 60 wide receivers, and in most drafts, 80-plus wide receivers are usually drafted. Thanks for the consideration
Brian E. Madison, WI
BRIAN EVENSON [MADISON, WI]
A:
That’s an area we’ll look at. I don’t like having only 60-68 wide receivers listed on that page. I don’t think your suggestion is quite right. There are too many scoring systems to keep track of. Maybe the better option is to simply eliminate the combined list. Only about 20 percent are combining WR-TE, and let those guys get that list via the custom rankings on the website. It’s something we’re talking about. For now, you can see a deeper list of wide receivers in a variety of place. In the Excel download, we’re going 120 wide receivers deep. The custom rankings feature includes that info. It also gets emailed to you.
Question 4:
Bill Simmons' new site, Grantland, recently had a fantastic suggestion for fantasy football. It was the addition of a new position: "Bad quarterback." I think it's an insanely cool idea. Say, every week, each team had to start, in addition to their regular lineup, a Bad QB. You would get POSITIVE points in the following categories: fumbles, INTs (bonus points if it's returned for a TD), and sacks. You would get NEGATIVE points for yardage, TDs, and completions of 20+ yards. Thoughts?
justin howe [newport, TN]
A:
I would not describe it as an ‘insanely good’ idea. I would describe it as a cute idea. For a new rule, I am more interested in touchbacks. I think kickers should get 1 bonus point for each touchback. I think that add another level of strategy to a fairly stall position. With the decision to move kickoffs to the 35, this would greatly enhance the value of a half-dozen kickers. Anybody who drafted somebody like Garrett Hartley, Dan Bailey, Connor Barth or Matt Bryant would be penalized (since those don’t handle kickoffs).
Question 5:
Hi Ian,
What's with Bryan Walters comment about being on most of your teams?
JEFF CASTER [WEST MIFFLIN, PA]
A:
He’s the one guy in the league I know. I’ve seen him play high school football and high school basketball. His dad was my son’s elementary school teacher. His mom quilts with my wife. Walters is on the verge of becoming the first player from Juanita High School to play in one of the big leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB). That’s pretty cool. He had a great preseason, returning a kickoff for a touchdown against his hometown team (Seahawks) and catching a game-winning touchdown in the last minute at Arizona.
Question 6:
Ian- Long time "cheater" with FFI, with pretty good success. If I "Like" FFI on Facebook then I would reveal my cheating sources-ways to all friends. It's a tough position to be in. What would you do?
John Ruben [SIMI VALLEY, CA]
A:
That’s a good point. You can go to the Facebook page once or twice a day to check in on what we’re posting.
Question 7:
Ian, What's up with MJD so high on your 9/5 draft list? With the recent news coming out of the JAGS camp, any thoughts on what you expect from Jones-Drew now?
Daniel Alpern [PORT HUENEME, CA]
A:
Jones-Drew moved up before the Garrard release. It was the decision to place Rashad Jennings that caused him to move up. Jennings is a great backup. I expected him to be used in a change-of-pace role, and to maybe be their goal-line back. He was very effective last year, and he’s a lot bigger. With Jennings out of the picture, it looks a lot more likely that Jones-Drew will be used in his usual, heavy-duty role. He’ll be over-used, I think. That’s why I moved him up on our board. Just hope that balky knee holds up.
Question 8:
Ian: With Vick's potential to get injured at some point this season is Vince Young worth a pickup as a spot starter? Thanks.
Ted Adams [WALKER, LA]
A:
I’ve got him in one of my leagues. I’d rather have a quarterback like Young – a guy with some upside – than a lesser quarterback like Tarvaris Jackson, Alex Smith or Andy Dalton.
Question 9:
So.....it looks like Indianapolis is going to have to run the ball. Is there any evidence that says that they actually will be able to do it? What happened to the rushing attempts and yards the last time Peyton was coming off an injury? And who would be the runner to target?
Brian Grzybowski [San Francisco, CA]
A:
They’ve got a pretty soft offensive line. I don’t think they’re capable of pounding it out. And with Manning gone, they won’t be in the red zone nearly as often. Joseph Addai is the starter. I think they’ll use Delone Carter as a change-of-pace and goal-line back.
Question 10:
I bought into the hype and drafted Hightower over Vincent Jackson. Please tell me I did not make a mistake. After hearing the reaction from room at the draft, Hightower would of fell to me in the next round if not later.
DAVID BOZZELLI [INDIANAPOLIS, IN]
A:
Jackson is a great player and certainly a safer pick. But Hightower could be very good in the offense. We’ll see. You may have gotten yourself a back who’ll run for 1,400 yards and a dozen touchdowns.
Question 11:
Just finished my 12 team PPR draft (12th pick), and I bet heavily on the key players that the Index believes will shine this year. The top 8 RBs were all taken, plus the Eagles TQB, Green Bay TQB, and Andre Johnson. I didnt like the risks and/or lack of upside from Gore, Mendenhall, McFadden, and Hillis, so I went WR/WR and picked Roddy White and Fitzgerald back to back. The die was cast, and I'd hoped to get Felix Jones at the end of the 3rd round, but it was not to be. My remaining picks were: Dallas TQB, Hightower, Wells, Benson, Woodhead, Lee Evans, Aaron Hernandez, Bills TQB, Chargers DST, Bess, Henery, Cooley, Raiders DST, and Jason Hanson. Did I make a massive mistake in going WR/WR or do you think Hightower, Wells, and Benson will pull thru for me?
Andrew Napoli [SPRINGFIELD, VA]
A:
I think you’ll be fine. White and Fitzgerald are extremely safe choices, particularly in a PPR format. I’m guessing this will be a draft that opens the eyes of the teams in the league – so that other teams are looking to start WR-WR in future years.
Question 12:
Hey Ian, totally respect your opinion and love your info, so I need some advice. I am in a 10-man dynasty and contracts play no factor in this trade as each of the players are in their last year of their deals. I was offered a trade and am concerned about which way to play it. I would get Beanie and Hightower for Roethlisberger. I've got Vick as my starter and know he may not make it thru the entire season healthy, so Ben is nice to have, but my RB depth is a bit weak with MJD, Bradshaw, M. Igram and P. Thomas. Would you do this trade? It's tough to let go of that security at QB, but I feel I may play Beanie and Hightower a bit more than some of my RB's b/c I don't like committee backfields, which I have.
Ryan Logan [MINNEAPOLIS, MN]
A:
This is a dynasty league. Dynasty as in forever. With that in mind, I think you hang onto Roethlisberger. Is Vick still in the league in 2-3 years?Roethlsiberger will be a very good quarterback for a lot of years. You have plenty of depth, I think, at running back. Wells and Hightower are high-value backs right now, but will either still be starters in 2013? Probably not. I think you have enough good running backs.
Question 13:
I've picked up Stevan Ridley in some very deep leagues. I like his potential given the first two preseason games. However, I hate guessing at Belichek's plan, and he did not play the last two games (Vereen did). What is your take on the short and long term production in the New England backfield?
NICK BECKER [SLINGER, WI]
A:
I don’t see him doing anything for now. If Green-Ellis gets hurt, than Ridley will be scoring every week.
Question 14:
Who comes up with the trviai questions for the site? The Packers opened 1997 with a game vs Chicago after winning Super Bowl vs New England. They opened 1996 in the game vs Tampa Bay where Favre threw 3 TD's to Keith Jackson. I had Jackson in 1996 my 1st year in Fantasy and remember it vividly.
Jay Monahan [CINCINNATI, OH]
A:
Damn. I screwed that one up. I looked it up wrong. I should have built it around Green Bay beating Chicago 38-24. Favre threw 2 TDs in that game; one to Robert Brooks and one to Jeff Thomason. Dorsey Levens ran for a pair of touchdowns. I will re-visit that issue in the trivia tomorrow. Question will be: Who was the last defending Super Bowl champion to lose its opener?
Question 15:
Your mag is top-notch, been with it over 15 years. I'm in 2-QB league (4 pt TDs) and got killed by QB run in draft (-Orton/ Cam starters believe it or not). May trade Manningham & Beanie for Eli -good idea? Rest of my starters are Rice/ Felix/ Roddy/ Mario/ Beanie/ Witten/ Heath/ Bironas/ Pitt/ NY Giants - I have Evans/ L. Moore to back-fill my trade -Thanks.
Steve Wells [FREEPORT, IL]
A:
Quarterbacks are golden in that kind of format. You may want to use Beanie this week before you trade him, though, because he has a real good matchup this week. Plus, how do you trade a player when he has the same last name that you do?
Question 16:
Hi Ian, I need your expertise. I'm in a keeper league where you can keep one player from the 12th round and later the following year. So guys like CJ, Rice, Rodgers, Turner are all keepers now for other teams. I tried over the years with the likes of Slaton and Celek but it never worked out for me. In a PPR league and with all TDs equaling 6 points, can you make some recommendations on some guys I should target in those later rounds? I appreciate it!!!
Steve, Douglassville, PA
Steve Catalano [Douglassville, PA]
A:
How about Matt Flynn of Green Bay? You take him with your last pick, and maybe he’s a starting quarterback a year from now?
Question 17:
Had terrible draft with my backs being McCoy, Felix Jones and Hightower at flex. Back ups are not great - Demarcus Murray, Phillip Tanner, Earnest Graham, Delone Carter, Marion Barber. Thing is, I have Rivers at qb with Stafford as my back up. The guy who drafted Peyton Manning has offered me Manning, Jay Cutler and Adrian Peterson in exchange for Rivers and Felix Jones. This would weaken me at qb unless Stafford stays healthy, but strengthen me at running back, though I'd still be thin. Should I accept the trade?
Jeffrey Damiani [CAMBRIDGE, MA]
A:
On my board, I’ve got Peterson worth about 40 more points than Felix. Rivers is worth about 45 more points than Stafford. (Part of that 45-point difference can be attributed to Stafford’s history of injuries, but that’s part of the calculation). Regardless, it’s at best a wash-type deal, and it leaves you holding all three of the players most likely to get hurt – Peterson, Stafford and Jay Cutler. I would want no part of that deal.
Question 18:
Hello need help with, u guessed it, Manning
I have Ryan and Manning in an 8 man league. The first 7 QB's were gone by the 2nd Rd, which was okay since I landed Megatron, Roddy White, Vernon Davis (PPR for Te's) and MoJo before picking up a QB. With Manning being hurt, the next best QB's on our Free Agent list are Flacco or Sanchise, niether do I like. I am leaning toward picking up either K.Collins or Fitzpatrick (scoring system FYI 1 pt 25yrds pass, 4pts TD, 1/3/5 bounus pts for long TD's)
Steven Torres [Paso Robles, CA]
A:
Collins before Flacco? That’s just crazy. Flacco is your guy. If you’re looking at just Week 1, then how about Sanchez against a really banged up Dallas secondary?
Question 19:
Hey Ian, Firstly, thanks for your thoughts on my inquisition as to whether to attend Coachella or Burning Man. I ended up at Coachella and had a blast, Burning Man will have to wait for a future date.
As for the Football, this year I wanted to get wild, and joined a 12-team PPR 6-points all TD's with starting rosters - QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, WR/RB, WR/RB/TE, WR/RB/TE/QB! - I boosted the passing TD value to 9 in the scoring profile to accommodate for the extra starting qb position, does that sound right? My draft went like this... QB-Rodgers, QB-Roethlis, RB-Forte, WR-Austin, RB-Tolbert, TE-Witten, RB-Benson, WR-S.Moss, RB-Addai, RB-Woodhead, WR-Bess, TE-Hernandez...with TE-Cooley, WR-Gibson(STL), RB-Snelling, WR-Gaffney filling out the back end.. Was this as strong as a draft as I feel it was? I feel like I'm pretty weak at WR with only Austin, Moss and Bess starting as receivers. Should I be looking to trade a combination of Benson/Addai/Bess/Woodhead for a top 20 WR? Or should I, for once, remain confident in my drafted team and stick with it??-excluding injury of course.
According to the latest projections I'm due to be the top scorer by a ways. I blame that mostly on my first two rounds of the draft. Your thoughts are always appreciated.
Jared Cravy [VALLEJO, CA]
A:
Austin, Moss, Bess. Those guys will catch a lot of passes. This is a PPR format. I think you’ll be fine. You could have a tricky call in Week 1. Austin is your best receiver, but he’s had a hamstring issue and is at the Jets, where they have the pair of lockdown corners. Bess has a very strong history against the Patriots – oddly, he plays better against them than any other opponent.
Question 20:
I picked 9th in my 10-team league this year. Since I had no shot at any of the top-tier RBs, I opted to go strong at WR. We can start up to 5 WRs in a game (3 mandatory, 1 flex RB-WR, 1 flex WR-TE), so we can never have enough - we also get bonus points for long TDs, and I ended up with Andre Johnson AND Larry Fitzgerald! I also have Steve Johnson, S. Moss, and S. Smith (CAR) so I feel pretty good there, but my RBs aren't so strong with a core of Peyton Hillis, Cedric Benson, and Beanie Wells. They may do fine, but not great. I'm thinking of standing pat and seeing what my RBs can do, but I also think I'm in a good position to trade for a top RB. What do you think? Stand pat or make a move?
Jeffrey Segelbaum [GOODYEAR, AZ]
A:
I think you’ll be fine at running back. I think you’ll be very good in Week 1, with Hillis and Wells both having choice matchups. It never hurts to look at trade offers, but I don’t think you need to do anything.
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Question 1: What do you think the...
Posted by Steven Torres | Sep. 09 at 06:54 AM
Sorry Ian, I forgot to mention I have Mattie Ice as my starter and picked up Peyton as back hoping it would only be a few weeks at most(draft 9/5/11). If that makes any differnce in your answer.
Question 1: What do you think the...
Posted by nien-li yang | Sep. 09 at 07:32 AM
Who do you think would be a better pick up for the season Delone Carter, Derrick Ward {Tate has been drafted} or Deji Karim?
Question 1: What do you think the...
Posted by Donald Cote | Sep. 09 at 05:16 PM
Hi Ian, with Pittsburgh deciding that E. Sanders is the WR3 in Pittsburgh, does that change your rankings at all?
Question 1: What do you think the...
Posted by BOB MCKINLAY | Sep. 10 at 05:50 AM
Ian I think Hightower is this year's Foster but I missed getting him in the draft. I have in 14 team PPR; Hillis, Sproles, Spiller, Carter, Karim, LJ, and Snelling. Do any of these other than Hillis have 1,000 yard and 50 catch seasons in 2012?
Question 1: What do you think the...
Posted by GREG HOULETTE | Sep. 10 at 02:43 PM
Do you list which teams are expected to win/lose their respective games each week anywhere on your site?
Question 5: Hi Ian, What's with Bryan...
Posted by Jesse Woldman | Sep. 09 at 10:44 AM
Hi Ian, I went to Juanita HS and Tom Evans was actually drafted into MLB while I was there out of Juanita; he ended up having a cup of coffee with the Blue Jays (and I believe hit a home run while in town). Here are his stats: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=evansto01
Question 5: Hi Ian, What's with Bryan...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Sep. 10 at 08:56 AM
Thanks for pointing out. I saw that comment about the NFL-MLB-NBA written online and just repeated it without checking. My bad. I remember Tom Evans. I saw him play some basketball there. They had three big-time players, and he was one of them (though I think all three might have been better in other sports). Evans or one of the other went on to play baseball at Wazzu (Dougherty? Daughterty? Brian Daugherty?).
Question 5: Hi Ian, What's with Bryan...
Posted by Jesse Woldman | Sep. 10 at 01:26 PM
Yep, Brian Doughty - he was drafted in the 8th round by the Mariners that year but don't think ever made the big leagues. Good memory! They were state champs in baseball that year, those guys were seniors when I was a sophomore.
Question 7: Ian, What's up with MJD...
Posted by Luke Butler | Sep. 09 at 09:23 AM
I use your cheat sheet every year and you have never let me down. This year I chose MJD over CJ based on your 9/5 rankings. Then Garard gets cut and MJD falls below CJ in the 9/7 rankings. Do you think I lost out big by taking MJD over CJ or do you still see them being pretty close?
Question 12: Hey Ian, totally respect your...
Posted by Kelly AuCoin | Sep. 15 at 12:23 PM
Hey there Ian, Thanks for the general awesomeness of this site. Year after year, always one of the best. I like my team, but I have a number of really good, but not "no brainer" starters so I'm pulling my hair out. At first I thought my problem we simply whether to start Big Mike Tolbert or Kenny Britt at Flex in our (.5) ppr league, but then I realized that I needed to really ponder all of my guys... What do you do when you've got multiple options that really look like a wash? Every site lists them slightly differently and there is really no clear advantage... I turn to you. Please help me, Oh Wise One! we start 1 QB, 2 BR's, 2 WR's, 1 TE, 1 Flex, and scoring is PPR AFTER the 4th catch, with normal yardage and TD scoring. I'm going Stafford over Bradford and Henne, Best and Felix Jones at RB, and then it begins to get murky..... Austin, Marshall and Britt could all be huge... I think I'll start Austin and Marshall at WR, but then..... who at Flex? Britt? I've also got MR Flex himself, Mike Tolbert? I think all these guys are really close. Do you have a method for avoiding the anxiety I'm going through? Always start the RB at flex? The Brits don't know how to play football so don't start a Britt? I don't know! Please help. Thanks! Kelly
Question 18: Hello need help with, u...
Posted by Steven Torres | Sep. 09 at 09:09 AM
Sorry Ian, I forgot to mention I have Mattie Ice as my starter and picked up Peyton as back hoping it would only be a few weeks at most(draft 9/5/11). If that makes any differnce in your answer. Sorry about double post, used wrong Question#