Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 16 at 11:00 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I only remember seeing Ochocinco on the field twice against the Dolphins- any insight as to the Patriots' plans for him? Is he in the doghouse, or just old and tired?. Thinking of drafting Devin Hester and starting him instead.
jeff foster [chico, CA]
A:
I’m comfortable writing off Ochocinco at this point. I just don’t sense he’s going to do anything. They’ve got Hernandez, Welker, Branch, Gronkowski. I think they’re set. Ochocinco isn’t the receiver he used to be. I don’t envision him morphing into the kind of player he was four years ago. He doesn’t have the speed anymore to take the top off a defense. I would cut bait (though I’m not a big Hester fan either).
Question 2:
My question is about Peyton Manning. I have Peyton & A Collie on my team. I am considering putting him on the IR this week. I would like your input on this as he could possibly come yet this year.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
Without knowing exactly how your league is structured, I would be looking to stick Manning on injured reserve and release Collie. I’d rather have the roster spots to work with other players. By the time Manning is healthy (if he’s healthy), Indianapolis will be eliminated from play consideration. I don’t envision him coming back in December to start the final four games for a 4-8 or 5-7 team. As supporting evidence, think of all the years the Colts clinched playoff positioning. They pulled Manning as quickly as they could. They even had the chance to go undefeated a few years ago and yanked him. He’s done; he’s not playing. (And with Manning out of the mix, Collie becomes just a run-of-the-mill No. 3 receiver on a bad team.
Question 3:
What happened to Lee Evans last weekend? I started him. No points, nothing. I love your work. Just confused.
CRAIG MILLER [TACOMA, WA]
A:
He didn’t catch any of the four balls thrown his way. I don’t see it as a problem going forward. He looked solid in the preseason. He has far more downfield ability than Anquan Boldin. I don’t see much difference between those two. Boldin should catch more passes, but Evans might finish with just as many yards and touchdowns. Evans was in a walking boot in August and again on Wednesday, so he’s dealing with some kind of ankle issue, but I don’t think it’s a big deal. He practiced fully on Thursday. Assuming he practices fully again today, he’ll be one of the top 30-35 receivers on my board this week.
Question 4:
I don't see Devery Henderson in your Re-Drafter this week. I'm wondering where you see him relative to Meachem and the other WRs.
Michael Hormaechea [BOISE, ID]
A:
I don’t think his overall value is particularly high. He’s the No. 3 receiver in New Orleans; he’ll be No. 4 when Colston returns in a month. I have nominal interest in Henderson as a fill-in for the next few weeks, but it looks like the Saints will get Lance Moore back this week. He’s practicing. In my opinion, that downgrades Henderson from a guy who’s one of the big waiver wire guys to target this week to just another warm body. Meachem and Moore should be the main receivers in that offense. With Henderson, you’re talking about an outside receiver who’ll hit a long play once in a while.
Question 5:
Ian, what are you doing to my beloved Redrafter PDF friendly cheat sheet?? I noticed something very valuable missing in this years cheat sheets, and I hope I'm not the only one that notices it too. Although spreadsheets can be a substitute, it should only be used in EMERGENCY situations. As the saying goes..."if it ain't broke, why fix it?" Please take a poll if necessary and find out if the subscribers agree with me or not.
CRAIG SMITH [KATY, TX]
A:
There’s guesswork involved here. The stuff leaves my computer, but I’m not really sure how you guys use it on your end. Do you readers like the page with all of the projected numbers? Or are you going off the cleaner, simpler page where the players are listed with first and last name? My guess is that hardly anybody uses or cares about the page with all of the numbers. All of the guys who are so number-driven that they care about those pages (I think) would probably be more interested in the projected stats in the Excel file you can download at the website (it comes as part of your subscription). The Excel file is really far, far better. With the pdf, you’re looking at compiled numbers. For quarterbacks, for example, you might see Michael Vick at 300 yards per game and 2.50 TDs. In the Excel, the stats are itemized; you might see him at 240 passing yards, 59 rushing and 1 receiving, and the TDs would be broken out in 1.75 passing and .75 rushing. Or, you might be more interested in season totals, you could on a separate tab and look at all the stats in that format. Or maybe you don’t like that we’ve projected Vick to miss 3-4 games and you want to start at the projected totals if everyone were to play 16 games. Also factor in that with the Excel, you can actually work with those numbers, sorting and re-sorting them and manipulating the data and whatnot. The big drawback with the pdf, I think, is that it slows down the process. All that stuff needs to be formatted and laid out. When I decide, around noon on Tuesday, that the product is “finished”, it takes close to an hour to get everything ready to go – all the lists have to be prepared and formatted. Sometimes during that hour, some news will break, then the whole deal has to be scrapped and started over. If we ditch those number-driven pages of the pdf, I think I can get you to the product 20-30 minutes faster, and I’ll free up more time to actually scout and look at teams, rather than doing busy work. But I will run it by the readers. I put an explanation in the next issue of the redrafter, and we’ll see what the other guys says.
Question 6:
It looks like the new rules/interpretation of the rules make it virtually impossible to defend against the pass. Receivers can now get off the line and roam the middle of the field unobstructed, secure in the knowledge that any safety who dares to hit them will be flagged and fined into indentured servitude. Defenders apparently can't even look menacingly at a quarterback without drawing a personal foul. Certainly, week one illustrated this new reality. Are you seeing the same thing, and if so, how does it impact the rankings?
Joe Savitsky [philadelphia, PA]
A:
Absolutely. The game is changing. It’s flag football now. The quarterback is king like he’s never been before. But I don’t think that dramatically changes the way you approach our little game. It still comes down to trying to accumulate difference makers at the key positions – QB-RB-WR. There is still scarcity at running back. At quarterback, we’ve just changed to baseline – it used to be you had to find a quarterback who’d deliver about 23 TDs at worst, now the bar has been raised to about 27-28. If you start three receivers, that might be the most undervalued position.
Question 7:
I have been offered Shonne Greene for BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Both play in a RB by committee, do you see more upside in Greene given their system?
Cliff Shannon [Coquitlam, BC]
A:
If you’re looking at just touchdowns, I will go with Green-Ellis. I expect the Patriots will score about 19-20 rushing touchdowns this year, and he’s their main option inside the 3. I expect he’ll probably knock in about a dozen touchdowns. If you’re looking at yards, then it becomes more of a tossup; Greene should get more carries and yards. Neither one is much of a pass catcher. On my official board, there’s very little difference between these backs. For me personally, I think Green-Ellis is the slightly better pick. His value gets dinged a little bit because of the risk-reward possibility that the Patriots start working in Stevan Ridley or Shane Vereen. But I don’t see that happening in 2011. I would rather carry the risk and have Green-Ellis on my team.
Question 8:
Eli Manning or Chad Henne?
Eli is my current backup but was thinking of dropping him for Henne, thoughts?
Scott Borkenhagen [PEWAUKEE, WI]
A:
It’s a sneaky thought. We know the Dolphins won’t be able to run all year, so Henne will be chucking it to Marshall and Bess. He also was an active runner in the opener, wasn’t he? But I will stick with Manning. Definitely a better player, and he’ll definitely still be in the starting lineup in November.
Question 9:
Do you think I improved my team enough to justify trading Aaron Rodgers away? I'm in a 12 team: half pt. per rec, 6 pts for all tds,1/10 rushing/ receiving, 1/20 passing yardage league, -2 for all int's and fumbles lost. I traded Rodgers & Wayne for Brees & Manningham.
DAVID THEIN [CARPENTERSVILLE, IL]
A:
Sounds good to me. According to my stat projections, there’s a bigger difference between Manningham and Wayne than between Rodgers and Brees. You team just improved by about a half point per game.
Question 10:
I've got Tolbert and Hightower and I need to trade one of these guys for a WR. The one I keep will become my second running back for the rest of the year. So which one should I keep and which one should I trade? I'll be trading for Steve Johnson if that makes a difference.
Jason Howes [Stewartville, MN]
Jason Howes [STEWARTVILLE, MN]
A:
In a standard-type league, I’ve got them as similar in value. In a PPR format or TD-only league, Tolbert grades out higher.
Question 11:
I am in a 14 team keeper league (keep two players) with standard Yahoo scoring (6pt TD passes) except we start two TE's. The owner of Peyton Manning dropped him and I am first on waivers. Here's my roster:
QB: Vick/Eli/Grossman
RB: Hightower/Tolbert/Green Ellis/Ridley/Delone Carter
WR: Calvin Johnson/Antonio Brown/Jacoby Jones
TE: Finley/Hernandez
K: Crosby
D: GB Defense
I'm not in love with Jacoby Jones and tempted to cut him as I intend to trade Eli for WR help or pick up A. Benn (TB). The big "con" I see is losing a roster spot/depth/flexibility for a guy who might simply retire. The big "pro" is owning Peyton Manning in a 6pt/TD pass league w 14 teams.
Would you drop Carter or Jones and go get Manning?
I have to decide by midnight on Sept 16th.
Thanks Ian!
Roger Ligman [Apple Valley, MN]
A:
No. Kevin Walters has a shoulder injury, so Jacoby Jones should start for 2-3 weeks. I will take that 2-3 weeks of production over the sack-of-beans potential that Manning returns and energizes your roster. I think Manning is done. With Delone Carter, we’re talking about a No. 2 tailback and goal-line guy, which also puts him ahead of Manning on my board.
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Question 1: I only remember seeing Ochocinco...
Posted by Robert Heater | Sep. 16 at 02:29 PM
To add to what has already been said: Ocho was not a part of the Pats no-huddle offense. The Pats had enormous success running the no-huddle with a 2 TE set with Branch and Welker out there. Clearly Ocho doesn't know the offense well enough yet or gained the trust of Brady to be a part of that package. Until we see Ocho gain that trust on the field I see no reason to start him. That being said I can't agree that his skills are diminished until we see him under perform later in the season or under perform with more playing time. I can also say with absolute certainty that Hester will never be a stud WR or a reliable fantasy option where Ocho could still be a fantasy asset should he gain more trust within the offense. With the lack of OTA's and minicamps it really isn't all that surprising that Ocho started slow. Ocho actually still has a chance to contribute whereas Hester will always be a tease.
Question 1: I only remember seeing Ochocinco...
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Sep. 20 at 10:33 PM
Just a couple of thoughts. I played Gonzo when the Eagles played Atlanta. I think you need to raise TEs a few notches when they play the Eagles. The Eagles have historically been very generous to the TE position. In addition, their defensive talent and game plan dictates that the offense should flow through the TE position. Great call on Sproles last week. I was debating between him and Bess in a PPR league. Your advice netted me about 15 extra points. You are seriously underestimating Blount.
Question 1: I only remember seeing Ochocinco...
Posted by KEITH CLARK | Sep. 22 at 02:26 AM
ian......in responce to your call for a vote, I vote in favor of speeding up the releases and keeping the rankings available in a separate location
Question 5: Ian, what are you doing...
Posted by JAY MILLER | Sep. 17 at 08:05 AM
I am a bit confused. You have Beanie Wells listed as a top 10 RB this week but in the weekly team info you say that he might not be very useful. Please explain. I am stuck on who to play tomorrow-Beanie or Shonn Green. Any thoughts-I am inclined to play Greene because I feel the Jets will win this game and he should get the bulk of the work at the goal line any input would be appreciated. Jay Miller
Question 5: Ian, what are you doing...
Posted by BRYAN BERTSCH | Sep. 17 at 11:15 AM
20-30 minutes is huge, though I liked the projected numbers. However, I didn't know the yardage numbers were combined yards. I see what you mean, in my league, total yards means nothing. Only passing yards versus rushing yards versus receiving etc.
Question 5: Ian, what are you doing...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Sep. 17 at 09:29 PM
I just re-read the text on Wells...all we say is that Wells gets a worse matchup this week than last. We still like him this week and say as much; more than Greene.
Question 10: I've got Tolbert and Hightower...
Posted by Gregory Oswell | Sep. 16 at 12:56 PM
I completely disagree with your take on Tolbert v Hightower Ian. Tolbert hit his high water mark in receptions, there is no way he is on the receiving end of 9 passes again this season. If you saw the game it should be obvious that Matthews is the far better running back and I think he will end up limiting Tolbert's carries and catches going forward. I am bearish on him. Hightower OTOH received all but two carries for the Redskins. He was a three down back and the short yardage guy too. I know people think his hold on the RB situation in Was is tenuous but if you look into the career of Shannahan once he decides on a back he sticks with him until they get hurt. Hightower is on pace to be a 330+ touch back this season Tolbert will looks to max out at 200. He will have to score a lot of TDs just to make up for Hightower's edge in yardage, let alone the TDs he will produce (maybe 8-12 more).
Question 10: I've got Tolbert and Hightower...
Posted by Sean Chi | Sep. 17 at 08:14 AM
Totally disagree with the Matthews backers. I did watch the game. And I saw Tolbert used on passing downs and in the red zone, and play that role very effectively. First of all, I don't believe that Matthews will end up with much more total touches than Tolbert. But even if he did, so what? Would you rather have 10 inside your own 20 or 5 touches in the red zone? In a PPR league, there's no comparison between the two. I've been saying it on my website since the preseason: Matthews is the new Fred Taylor and Mike Tolbert is the new (old) MJD.
Question 10: I've got Tolbert and Hightower...
Posted by Gregory Oswell | Sep. 17 at 03:19 PM
@Sean Chi No doubt Tolbert is going to be the short yardage guy for the Chargers and get the bulk of those TDs, but Matthews limits Tolbert's upside greatly (Tolbert catching 9 passes was a fluke, his career high is 25 in a season), and the question was comparing Tolbert to Hightower (who has zero competition for touches in Washington) and Tolbert loses in that fight six times a week and twice on Sunday. I will also gladly take Ryan Matthews if you want to have a side bet on who will finish with more points in 2011 between him and Tolbert (PPR, 10y/pt).