Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Oct. 07 at 05:49 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I dropped Manningham for Victor Cruz, but I most likely won’t be starting Cruz this week. Lee Evans is also available. Do you think Evans could fair better then Cruz for the rest of the year, after his bye this week?
Jeff Messina [STATEN ISLAND, NY]
A:
One of those New York receivers, Cruz or Manningham, will be better than Evans. The other will be worse. The key is latching onto the right one. Cruz was benched earlier this year when he dropped a ball early in a game; it looked like he’d lose the No. 3 job to Domenik Hixon (who’s now out for the year). Then Manningham got pulled for the same reason at Arizona; he didn’t look ready to play, so the Giants elevated Cruz ahead of him for the bulk of that game. Cruz has played well two weeks in a row. So are the Giants ready to make a lineup change? Maybe. But Manningham has been taking the starter reps in practice this week. Looks like he’ll stay in the lineup for this week, which makes it kind of a toss-up deal with those two receivers. Cruz and Manningham have similar value for now (with Evans probably slightly ahead of both of them).
Question 2:
I think most of us who follow you are saddled with a WR who has not been carrying his weight this season (at least the first 25% of it) in Nate Burleson. What a loser. In an offense that’s scored some points, he’s been doing nada. I’ve got him in all my leagues. Should we cut bait with this freeloader for his teammate Titus Young or some other waiver wire wonder who can help us now? Or do you think he’s worth keeping?
BARRY BROWN [COLUMBUS, OH]
A:
I don’t like putting players who aren’t productive in the starting lineup. Then they’re just hurting you over and over. But Burleson is a talented guy, and that’s a very good offense. I could see him turning things around. I would stash him on your bench unless there’s something very appealing sitting out there on the waiver wire.
Question 3:
With Foster’s performance in week 4, do you think he can now be considered a reliable option at RB? I drafted him prior to reaggravating the hamstring in the preseason (we had a very early draft this year), but dropped him prior to the start of the season because his status was too questionable for someone counting as 33% of our salary cap. I don’t regret the move at all even though some of the owners in our league have called it the biggest draft day blunder in recent years. I’m just wondering if it’s worth it to try and free up salary cap room to pick him up again. I currently have MJD, Turner, and Fred Jackson as my RBs.
Roy Sherman [COLUMBIA, TN]
A:
There is risk involved with Foster. That hamstring could still go. But he’s a guy I’d like to have. If he stays healthy, he’s a guy who could lift your franchise to a championship.
Question 4:
I’ve been a loyal subscriber to your pre-season rankings for many years, but I must say that you really blew it this year. In a PPR, you led me to draft the following players way too high: MJD, Felix Jones, Tim Hightower, Roddy White, Mario Manningham, Nate Burleson, Mike Thomas, Lee Evans, Big Ben. You had all of these players ranked significantly higher than other rankings and they have all disappointed. Do you agree that this was a down year for you?
Luke Butler [Washington, DC]
A:
I haven’t thought about whether it’s been a good year or a bad year. For one, we’re only four weeks in. It’s too early to say whether a lot of guys are stars or busts. Lee Evans, for example, hasn’t really played yet. We’ll see what he can do in Week 6 when he’s on the field and healthy. I also haven’t compiled a list of the players that was was higher and lower on than the bulk of the other experts. I know I was higher than all 25 of the guys in our Experts Poll on tight end Aaron Hernandez. I don’t see that name on your list.
Question 5:
I have RBs Turner, MJD, Wells and Benson. How would you rate these 4 the rest off the way? Would you play matchups or would you just stick with the same two every week?
ROBERT JACKSON [LIVERMORE, CA]
A:
I play matchups. Always have. When it’s Sunday, you put the guys on the field that you feel will score the most points. I don’t know how anyone can do it any other way.
Question 6:
Should I drop Johnny Knox and pick up Jacoby Jones?
Philip Hood [PORTSMOUTH, NH]
A:
Knox has no value in my opinion. Maybe Jones can get it going for a few weeks with Andre Johnson down. Not guaranteeing it, though. Jones didn’t do much when Johnson was hurt last year, and he didn’t even catch a pass last week in Pittsburgh.
Question 7:
I’m having a heck of a time deciding between C. Benson and Willis McGahee for week five. According to my custom rankings McGahee is listed 15th and Benson at 21st. According to other websites, a majority have Benson and then McGahee at about 15th and 21st respectively. Could you help explain the difference between your rankings and theirs, and which RB you would go with?
Paul Davis [MINERAL CITY, OH]
A:
I don’t think there’s a big difference between these guys. McGahee is slightly better as a receiver. He’s caught 11 passes for 49 yards, while Benson is down at 4 catches for 19 yards. McGahee definitely gets the edge there. The run defenses look pretty similar. The Jaguars gave up 177 rushing yards last week to New Orleans, but that offense is so good, I think, that you can kind of set that game aside. Jacksonville held Tennessee under 50 yards on opening day. San Diego ranks 12th against the run, Jacksonville is at 16th. But San Diego is on the road, while Jacksonville is at home. They’ve both allowed 2 rushing TDs. Again, just not much difference there. Benson and McGahee both played pretty well last week. I think you can go with either guy. Just pick one and be at peace with your decision, recognizing that if you make that decision 100 times, you’re not going to be right 80 percent of the time. I’m going with McGahee slightly higher.
Question 8:
I have had it with wash running backs. You had Hightower ranked #11 last week. Zero points! Torain ran wild. I handcuffed Helu, second on your list. He did nothing. Do you agree with me to dump them all and pick up Hunter or Ridley off waivers? Or pick up Torain and suffer through another week or two with possible zero points?
BEN HOGEVOLL [SILETZ, OR]
A:
I’d pick up Torain. I think he’ll be the No. 1 back there for at least a while. The next time they make a change, I’m not sure if it will be Helu or Hightower. Helu is the fastest of those three backs. Or maybe they go to more of a committee approach. I find Stevan Ridley to be a very intriguing option. He’s starting to play more in New England. He’s actually 10 pounds heavier than Green-Ellis, and he’s a lot faster. That longer touchdown that Ridley scored last week in Oakland? Green-Ellis isn’t fast enough to score on that one.
Question 9:
I have both J.Graham and A.Hernandez. Is it too much to offer Graham and J.Best for AP in a ppr league? Would you even want AP with the way Minnesota is playing? The guy has D.Clark and both AP and McCoy. He’s not trading McCoy. I’d assume McNabb is going to be benched. I do need a 2nd WR more than a RB, but the problem is the TE position is pretty deep and the teams feel ok with what they have. I can probably then flip AP for a WR then.
Bill Petilli [Larchmont, NY]
A:
I wouldn’t make that trade. I’ve got Peterson as a top-5 back, but those are two good players you’d be giving up. Graham might be the top tight end this year, and Best is one of the top dozen running backs in this kind of format (he’s averaging 51 receiving yards per game). You would upgrade some at running back, but you’d be giving away a great tight end to do it?
Question 10:
In a 14-team league with most of my RB’s on bye this week. PPR league that lets HOU’s Casey start at RB - where would you rank him on your PPR list for RB’s this week? Moreno looks like my next-best option.
BILL REHOR [CULVER CITY, CA]
A:
I’ve got Casey at 7.0 points this week, which would make him 40th among running backs.
Question 11:
Standard scoring: does trading Mendenhall straight up for AJ Green make sense? I’ve still got A Peterson, Felix Jones, and McGahee at RB (start 2). At WR/TE (start 3) I’ve got Nicks, Nate Washington, Plaxico, and Boldin. Pitt’s offensive line looks like a real mess, but they do have a slew of home games coming up and their line should get healthy within a few weeks. The thought is maybe Mendenhall is worth stashing since McGahee could get jerked for Moreno at any time and Felix Jones has a bit of an injury history including already being banged up a bit this year. Hard to know if AJ Green is that big of an upgrade over what I’m already starting at WR2 or WR3 to make it worthwhile sacrificing some good RB depth.
RYAN SOLETSKI [DE PERE, WI]
A:
They’ve got similar value. I’ve got Green slightly higher via durability. He’s a wide receiver, so he’ll almost certainly start 12 games. Mendenhall is a running back and has already tweaked a hamstring, so he’ll likely miss a game or two or three. You’re starting three receivers, and you have three good ones plus Burress (who’s more of a backup guy). But Green would start at least three games via bye, and one of those guys could get hurt. Nicks and Boldin haven’t been particularly durable. ANd maybe Green just moves past Washington or Boldin at some point. Green.
Question 12:
I love your individual player weekly rankings. The defense/special teams doesn’t seem to be as good. When I run the custom rankings for my league, it shows that the NYJ are the third best play this week, even though they’re at New England! That doesn’t make sense to me. I also see (in my custom rankings for this week) that Baltimore is the fourth best play. I know they have a helluva defense, but they’re going to be hard-pressed to do anything since they’re on their bye week! In fact, all of the bye-week teams are included in the weekly. Maybe the web programmer can take at look at that.
Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
We had an error with the defenses for about 6 hours on Thursday. The rankings in the pdf were correct, but I loaded the wrong defensive projections into the HAL 9000. I put in the per-game numbers for the season. The correct figures are in there now.
Question 13:
I use the Excel download a ton for the weekly rundown. Do you think you could add a column to show who the player is playing this week? I feel like I’m always flipping back and forth to the adobe file to check the schedule.
Jay Tennant [CHICAGO, IL]
A:
It’s a decent idea. One we’ll talk about. But it’s an awfully bulky file already – about 550 players deep by 25 columns wide. I’m not sure how many other readers would want that info in there.
Question 14:
These injuries are just insane. I just lost Andre Johnson for crying out loud. I have M.Williams (TB) as my WR2 thinking he was going to be very good and he’s stunk so far. Burleson? He went missing the past 2 games. I have both Graham and Hernandez. Would you trade one of them for Jordy Nelson? What week is Ridley going to get 20 carries?
Bill Petilli [Larchmont, NY]
A:
Ridley is playing more, but I don’t know that there will ever be a 20-carry back in New England. Graham and Hernandez are great players; you would need more than Nelson for one of them. (I like Nelson; I’m just saying you can get more).
Question 15:
Pittsburgh’s schedule for the rest of the year is cupcake. However, due to the horrendous play by their offensive line, I’m beginning to wonder if the "load up" on Steeler players philosophy that I’ve been preaching to friends may just backfire. I’m in a PPR league and have Mike Wallace, Fitzgerald and Amendola as my receivers. Roethlisberger and Freeman are my quarterbacks. I’ve been offered Michael Vick for Wallace. The only attractive free agent receivers seem to be Decker and Denarious Moore. Would you accept the trade?
Johnny Bazzano [SANTA ROSA, CA]
Question 16:
Standard scoring league. I made a terrible mistake a couple weeks ago and cut Olsen to pick up Fred Davis. My #1 TE is Hernandez. As of Thursday, it doesn’t look like Aaron will play this week since he hasn’t practiced and Davis is on bye. Cook, Lewis, Winslow and Casey are BA FA TEs.
PETER DEBIASE [HAVERTOWN, PA]
Question 17:
Is Cam for real? I want to start him, but do I bench Brees? Who has the better game week 5?
WYATT KLEIN [S MILWAUKEE, WI]
A:
Newton is for real. He’s got a cannon arm – maybe stronger than everyone else in the league – and he’s a lot more accurate than anybody realized. Also has the nice safety net of being a great runner. He’s scored all 4 of Carolina’s rushing touchdowns. I’ve got him as a top-5 quarterback this week. I would not, however, put him ahead of Brees. Not this week.
Question 18:
i’ve been offered Victor Cruz or Plaxico Burress for Michael Bush in my modified yardage league. I currently have foster, tate, and tolbert as my other backs (so im not starting bush) and nicks, brown, and floyd as my receivers. I like the value of bush for cruz, but that is doubling down and putting a lot of faith in Eli that i’m not sure he deserves. i’m not high on plaxico, but he’s getting more and more looks. Would you take either of these deals for Michael Bush?
Jason Brater [ANN ARBOR, MI]
A:
I’d keep Bush. You’ll need him to start a few games, I think. And at some point, McFadden will get hurt and you’ll have a very good short-term starter.
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Question 1: I dropped Manningham for Victor...
Posted by Daoud Bey | Oct. 09 at 12:02 PM
I will say this much, you have been Lee Evans biggest fan this year. I really don't understand what is so spectacular in the Raven offense that is making Lee Evans have so much value? I selected Lee Evans when he was with Buffalo and he always was a crap shoot. You never knew which week he would show up with good numbers. A WR3/WR4 at best.
Question 1: I dropped Manningham for Victor...
Posted by PARAS SHAH | Oct. 10 at 01:29 PM
It's early, but this happens to be the worst start I have had in about a decade. Being a loyal subscriber (you can look up my ID and see how long its been), I think I was just unlucky in picking the duds in your estimates. I too sit with F. Jones, N. Burleson, Big Ben and L. Evans (hasn't played I know). I have not given up hope yet, but its getting late awfully early.
Question 3: With Foster’s performance in week...
Posted by PETER STEINKE | Oct. 07 at 02:51 PM
Wow. Can't imagine a league where Foster is dropped and not immediately picked up by someone else. Can I join?
Question 3: With Foster’s performance in week...
Posted by Roy Sherman | Oct. 08 at 12:09 AM
Peter, he was dropped (by me), picked up, and dropped again. I would've picked him up again, but I was too low in the waiver order to get him. It may be a blessing in disguise though since I would've had to give up MJD AND Turner to free up enough salary cap room to get him. Now, Andre Johnson has been dropped, and I'd like to pick him up, but if he doesn't return by week 7, I'd be screwed since my other 2 WRs (Nicks and S. Johnson) are on a bye that week. Decisions, decisions.
Question 4: I’ve been a loyal subscriber...
Posted by Sean Chi | Oct. 07 at 06:29 AM
Just want to note that most other sites were ALOT higher on Felix Jones than FFI. I never understood why; he didn't do anything last year and nothing in the offensive scheme changed to make me thing he was going to blow up into a high upside RB2. Marion Barber gone? So what? He wasn't going to get those carries and even if he did he wasn't well suited for that role. He's exactly the same as he's been his entire career.
Question 4: I’ve been a loyal subscriber...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Oct. 07 at 07:00 AM
Seems pretty early to be right or wrong on a lot of these guys. For a couple of weeks we looked good on Tolbert, who we were higher on than most. I think we were higher on Dez Bryant and Matthew Stafford....lower on Mark Ingram....quicker than some to move Peyton Manning well down our board...I doubt many Index readers have him on their teams. Probably some wins and losses in there, if basing things on just the first month. Feel like I ought to mention those Jaguars players, MJD and Mike Thomas though. Nobody knew the Jags would decide to cut Garrard and basically throw their season away. MJD is healthy and looking good, they just don't have a functional quarterback out there to take some pressure off.
Question 4: I’ve been a loyal subscriber...
Posted by James Crawford | Oct. 07 at 07:31 AM
I disagree. I've been killing it in my league based on the PPR value FFI put on Rice, Forte, Hillis and Graham. I also got Steve Johnson in the 5th round and he's a top 10 WR. And I think Antonio Brown may be an excellent WR by midseason. No one else in my league even knew who this guy was or thought Sanders was a sure thing to replace Hines Ward as the #2. I also got Tolbert for a steal.
Question 4: I’ve been a loyal subscriber...
Posted by Eric Kassor | Oct. 07 at 10:19 AM
IMO Felix, Roddy and Manningham are going to light it up in the 75% of the season left on the table. Ben is going to flat out beast the rest of the season, he always plays better with a boot on.
Question 4: I’ve been a loyal subscriber...
Posted by Eric Schmit | Oct. 08 at 04:37 AM
Not to pile on, but be patient...4 weeks does not a season make. Injuries are the reason many of the guys on your list are underperforming, and I believe the others will come around. Look at Roddy White---he's not off to a great start points-wise, but he's the second most targeted WR after 4 weeks, he'll start getting in the end zone soon. I've won my league three of the last four years by combining my knowledge of my league with Ian and his crew's analysis of the NFL, I'm not going to start doubting them because of a slow start.
Question 5: I have RBs Turner, MJD,...
Posted by ROBERT JACKSON | Oct. 07 at 06:51 AM
But you didn't answer the first question.......how would you rate these 4 the rest of the way?
Question 5: I have RBs Turner, MJD,...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Oct. 07 at 09:29 AM
Robert, if you're a subscriber, it's in the latest ReDrafter, and the order might change based on your particular scoring system. In a yardage and TD league, Turner-MJD-Wells-Benson, and the first three are very close (consecutive, in fact) and Benson is a few spots behind. But, his order on those guys will probably be different every single week based on that week's matchups.
Question 8: I have had it with...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Oct. 07 at 01:17 PM
heres some real advice: dont draft rb's on a shanahan team...you never, ever know who is gonna play, start, sit, spit, or poop(which rhymes with spit if you say it right)...Shanahan is notorious for giving out false or misleading infortmation..trade away all your washington backs for one decent one on a team that isn't wash, sf, or phi..(the coaches of those franchises will "Shannahan" you too.Dont say i didn't warn ya)..jeff foster..ps...trade'em for daniel thomas, the thomas owner will probably go for it, and he will get signficant work week in and wedek out..reliability- an often under-valued quality in my book.
Question 8: I have had it with...
Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | Oct. 12 at 03:47 PM
from real advice jeff foster,i didnt ask you for real advice but thanks for the dumb stupid advice anyway.Everyone in the world of fantasy football knows Torain is the man.i know who will start,play,poop ect but you warned me. Daniel thomas trade for Torain!!! Thats Funny! HAHAHAHAHA
Question 8: I have had it with...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Oct. 12 at 05:21 PM
yo, ben! First of all, my point was that shannahan is notoriously wishy-washy with his rbs, is secretive about who will get the bulk of the carries, about injuries, etc..in fact, wasnt it YOU who wrote in saying that you've "had it with washingtion rbs"?? and wanting to know if you should just pick up ridley or some other back that might break out this year...which leads to..2nd of all, if its so obvious to you and "everyone else" that torain is THE MAN, then why did you waste your time asking ian if you should get rid of him??? if hes so good, why ponder whether to keep him??? If torain is so good, why have you "had it" with WA rbs...that seems a lot more stupid than what i said..I merely suggested that if you are considering ridley, (who would be rbbc (bjge,woodhead)on a predominantly passing team, then whats wrong with another rookie who has looked good, and who will probably NOT be in a commitee situation....was just trying to help a brother out...3rdly, if you want to talk friendly trash, i'm all in, but if you just want to be mean-spirited , a hater and throw out straight insults(while contradicting yourself, no less) then heres another suggestion: shut your mouth.
Question 15: Pittsburgh’s schedule for the rest...
Posted by ERIC SCOLNICK | Oct. 07 at 08:19 AM
The question shouldn't be which is better "Vick or Wallace" but is the increase from Big Ben (or Freeman) to Vick greater than the drop-off from Wallace to Decker.
Question 15: Pittsburgh’s schedule for the rest...
Posted by Dave (MOJO) Smith | Oct. 07 at 09:30 AM
Isn't Amendola on IR and out for the year?
Question 16: Standard scoring league. I made...
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Oct. 07 at 06:56 AM
Ian: Any chance I can get a follow up answer to my question? When I typed the question Thursday morning, I had just read that Hernandez met with the media with a brace on his knee. Needless to say, I was shocked to see that he practiced the last 2 days. In the event that he doesn't play on Sunday (My lineups lock 5 minutes before the early games and NYJ-NE is a 4:15 game), please rank the FA TE's I listed (Cook, Lewis, Winslow and Casey) in your order of preference. Thanks.
Question 16: Standard scoring league. I made...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Oct. 07 at 01:28 PM
Peter, he has Winslow highest, and I agree.