Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Nov. 04 at 12:12 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
With Jonathan Baldwin’s breakout game Monday night what is his value going forward? Still second fiddle to Dwayne Bowe? I picked him up and I am wondering if he makes for a nice WR-3 or flex starter? Thanks and Go Bills!
David Kennedy [STEAMBURG, NY]
A:
Bowe is the clear No. 1, but he’s in a contract year. As Baldwin emerges, it gives Kansas City the ability to choose to let Bowe walk at the end of the season, moving Baldwin into that top spot. For this year, I expect Baldwin will continue to have a limited role, playing in the slot. Bowe and Steve Breaston will remain the starters; they’ll catch more passes. Baldwin has some playmaking ability, so perhaps he outscores Breaston.
Question 2:
What do you make of Houshmanzadeh signing with Oakland? It seems they already have a core of decent young receivers as well as the fact that if TJ was all that sweet, some other NFL team would've picked him up already. But when he was good, he was darn good. Does TJH have fantasy value down the stretch?
Jason Brater [ANN ARBOR, MI]
A:
No. I don’t think he can play anymore. He’s 34, I think it’s an old 34. He was a big disappointment with the Seahawks in 2009, and he really didn’t do much in Baltimore, where he sealed their loss in the playoffs last year by dropping a pass on fourth down at Pittsburgh.
Question 3:
I have been playing fantasy football since 1970 when my first QB was John Hadl of the San Diego Chargers. I wish we had your magazine back in those days, but there was nothing available but the annual “Street and Smith Pro Football” report. In fact, the term “Fantasy Football” didn’t even exist back then. Over the past 40 years, I have had my share of ups and downs, but I think this year might be my most frustrating so far. After draft night, I thought my team was loaded and ready for another championship, but instead, I think I have the 2011 All-Bust team. My top 5 picks were as followed; Rivers, Chris Johnson, Peyton Hillis, Vincent Jackson and Dez Bryant. All of these players were in your top 35 overall on the final cheat sheet September 5th so I was shocked I was able to get them all. Now, here we are at about the halfway point and I find myself near the bottom of the pack. Do you see any hope for these 5 the rest of the way?
ROBERT JACKSON [LIVERMORE, CA]
A:
The first quarterback I ever drafted was also a Charger (Dan Fouts), so we have something in common. I actually announced Dan Marino (with the 5th overall choice) but changed my mind after a few seconds and the guys let me switch. Marino went on to throw 44 TDs, and the do-over cost me the league title. I landed George Rogers (18 TDs) and Jerry Rice (16 TDs) in the middle rounds, so I would have had our league’s best-ever team if I also had Marino. But back to the task at hand. Rivers and Johnson, I think, can be top-10 players at their positions in the second half of the season. They’re not going to be the top-5 guys you were hoping for, but they can be OK. Same with Jackson and Bryant. Hillis, I think, you can write off as a wasted selection.
Question 4:
Everything I'm reading about Kevin Kolb missing the game Sunday is assuming the value of Fitzgerald will go down too. Is there any chance that John Skelton actually helps Fitzgerald? I think he can. In the four games that Skelton started last year, Fitz went for 72, 125, 26, and 125 again, with 1 TD... Not bad numbers. I think Kolb's propensity to get squirrely in the pocket is really hurting Fitz's value, who is the primary read on most routes, and when Kolb scrambles he looks off that initial read. What are your thoughts? Clearly I've thought about this too much already, I need someone elses opinion.
sean haider [PORTLAND, OR]
A:
I’m with you. I think with many of these young quarterbacks, there’s plenty of talk about how it’s going to hurt their wide receiver, but it often doesn’t pan out that way. I remember Steve Smith, for example, putting together a nice run with Matt Moore at quarterback. I remember Jerry Rice being better with Steve Bono at quarterback rather than Steve Young. And Calvin Johnson last year did just fine when Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton were at quarterback. So it’s a concern, but it’s not necessarily a death sentence. With a lot of these young quarterbacks (I think), there’s a tendency for them to be not as good at working through progressions and reading defenses. They’re more likely to just go with the play as originally designed – meaning more of the throws go to the No. 1 receiver in the offense. So if the Cardinals go with John Skelton (and I think they will), I believe it will hurt all of the team’s other pass catchers. With Fitzgerald, however, I think you just leave him in your lineup.
Question 5:
I am the commissioner of a 12-team dynasty league (non-PPR) and after hearing complaints from other owners and evaluating the following trade, I disallowed it. Now, both teams involved are complaining. Just wondering what you think: Team A gave up Tony Gonzalez, Jahvid Best and Jets D/ST. Team B gave up Jake Ballard, Peyton Hillis and Alphonso Smith.
Geoff Maleman [LOS ANGELES, CA]
A:
Which side of the trade don’t you like? To me, it looks like one owner is anxious to get rid of Jahvid Best – wants no part of the concussion issue – while the other wants to rid himself of the hamstring and contract issues associated with Peyton Hillis. I have no probem with that. It’s not a trade I would even consider overturning. Certainly, it’s nowhere near as one-sided as the trade between Cincinnati and Oakland, where the Bengals gave up a quarterback who didn’t even factor into their future and got two premium draft picks.
Question 6:
Miles Austin has been killing me all year. I see that the Raiders added T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Is it time to make a move?
DARRELL PRESTELLA [CARSON CITY, NV]
A:
C’mon, man. Houshmandzadeh can’t play anymore. At best, he’s a crappy slot receiver. Austin is still a franchise-type guy. His numbers have been down only because of matchups and situations. The Cowboys ran all over the Rams, so they didn’t pass much in that game. Then they went up against those great cornerbacks in Philadelphia. Austin should re-emerge this week. I’ll bet you Houshmandzadeh doesn’t finish with half as many catches, yards or touchdowns as Austin the rest of the season.
Question 7:
I need to pick a backup QB for Schaub. Week 11 bye. I have McCoy but as of now the only availables are Painter, Tebow and Tavaris Jackson. Rex Grossman is available but of course he isnt starting yet.
JOE SERVI [MONTEREY, CA]
A:
Tebow has the fantasy-friendly playing style. He runs for 50-70 yards per game, and that translates into an extra 100-140 passing yards in most systems. But the Broncos are playing the Jets that week, and I want no part of that matchup. I would advise you to instead select Jackson.
Question 8:
Should I offer Tebow, Jonathan Stewart and Torain for Kolb and Mathews in a non-ppr league? My starting QB is Eli, so the QB swap is not much of an issue. Regarding the RBs, I wasn't planning on starting Stewart or Torain this week, so the trade would not affect my lineup at all for this week. Going forward, I have Foster, Benson and Felix Jones (if he gets back into the starting lineup), so the trade would really only hurt my RB depth rather than my best weekly starting lineup.
ZACH LEAVITT [Highlands Ranch, CO]
A:
Who’s the one player in there who really interests anybody? Mathews. He’s the guy I would want. I would be willing to trade Tebow, Stewart and Torain for Mathews, even if Kolb was left out of the deal.
Question 9:
I noticed that in your redrafter Nicks and Colston have dropped about 9 spots (a lot it seems), and i was wondering why. Is Nicks because of his injury (it isn't supposed to be serious)?..or maybe teams are scheming against him so much?..And Colston seems like he is still playing really well, and you noted that the Saints have more home games coming up in which they play a lot better, so i am curious- can a player potentially drop 9 spots (or so)because he still has a bye coming? Just wondering if thats the reason.
JEFF FOSTER [CHICO, CA]
A:
With Nicks, it’s the hamstring. He’s not going to play this week, and with us entering Week 9, a missed game represents about 12-15 percent of the remaining fantasy season. Plus he hasn’t been as good as expected anyway. With the Saints, the entire passing offense was downgraded, and we have Lance Moore having caught 8 passes and a touchdown last week. I moved Moore up a little, and that production came out of Colston’s expected share. But he’s fine – not a big change from last week.
Question 10:
He's a good runner and a good blocker, but he can't seem to get on the field. I'm talking about NE RB Stevan Ridley. Can you explain it and do you see this changing later in the season?
Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
They’ll continue to ride with a committee there. It looks like Kevin Faulk will be their third-down back; they moved him ahead of Danny Woodhead last week. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is their main back, but Ridley is bigger and faster. I expect they’ll continue to use Ridley off the bench; if he plays well or if Green-Ellis gets hurt, then Ridley could be a real monster down the stretch. But for now, he’s definitely a backup. A guy in the same class as Kendall Hunter and Marion Barber.
Question 11:
Do you expect Carson Palmer to start all remaining games even if he plays poorly? Given the big investment in Palmer. I need a 2nd QB for the remainder of the year and I am debating between Palmer and Tarvaris Jackson. Preference?
christian moritz [washington, DC]
A:
I’m going Jackson. He’ll beat Palmer by 15-20 yards per game as a runner. That’s like an extra 30-40 passing yards. And I think he’ll put up better passing numbers as well. He’s actually started to come on recently. He went over 300 yards against the Bengals and Falcons, and the Seahawks passed for 315 against the Giants (Jackson left that game early with a pectoral injury). With Palmer, on the other hand, I think you’re getting a noodle-armed has-been who’ll “manage” a run-dominated offense. I expect he’ll average probably about 200 yards and a touchdown the rest of the way.
Question 12:
Standard scoring (3pts for passing TD) - Offering Ray Rice and Tony Romo for Aaron Rodgers and Willis McGahee. I will still have Steven and Fred Jackson as well as Jahvid Best.
Chris Powell [BLOOMINGTON, MN]
A:
In ballpark terms, you would be picking up 4 points per game at quarterback but losing 5 points per game at running back. So in that sense, it’s a no-no. But you could argue that you’re only 2 points at running back, since you would start Steven Jackson rather than McGahee at tailback. So by that measure, you go for it. I suggest you stand pat. I like the luxury of having the depth at running back. I also have a slight concern that when Week 16 rolls around and you’re in your fantasy playoff game, the Packers might decide to sit down Rodgers. I think they’ll have the No. 1 seed sewn up at that time. The Packers are also at home in Weeks 16-17, so weather will be a concern.
Question 13:
Why won't the skins give Helu a chance before relegating him to a minor role? Do you think Delone Carter has upside with the way he's running (decent ypr)?
David Barenborg [MERCER ISLAND, WA]
A:
They don’t seem to think he’s ready for a featured role. Maybe they don’t think he’s rugged or durable enough. I don’t think it’s his blocking ability on passing downs, because they’ve been using him as more of a third-down back. As poorly as Ryan Torain is playing, I’m guessing Helu will get a chance in that featured role before the year is through. As for Carter, Joseph Addai seems to be healthy again, so I think you’ll see him rolled back into a reserve role for the coming games. Long-term, I think I might like Carter better than Addai. He (Carter) looks like a keeper.
Question 14:
I've been offered Ray Rice & Jason Witten for Fred Jackson. I currently have Winslow as my starting TE. TE's get 1.5 points per catch, aside from that, standard 1 for 10 receiving. I should make our playoffs that are week 16-17 (stupid, I know). The Bills have Denver (16) & @N.E. (17) while the Ravens have the Browns (16) & @ Bengals (17). Your thoughts?
Jeff Carter [FRANKLIN, TN]
A:
Sold. Rice and Jackson are essentially interchangeable, but Witten crushes Winslow in that kind of format – beats him by 4-5 points per game. So I would make that trade and get Witten in your lineup.
Question 15:
Would you trade Brady for Ben and AJ? I have Rivers already and have a 6-2 record and could probably afford the AJ wait.
Bill Petilli [Larchmont, NY]
A:
Yes. I don’t think you’re giving up moving down from Brady to Roethlisberger. Probably just a couple of points per game. Johnson could be a top-5 receiver in the final month of the season. I suggest you pull the trigger.
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Question 1: With Jonathan Baldwin’s breakout game...
Posted by MARK CLURE | Nov. 04 at 12:57 PM
This question doesn't apply to Baldwin-I missed getting an e-mail in earlier. Here's my situation; I have been offered either Fitzgerald, Nicks or Andre Johnson for Chris Johnson. The latter two are out this week. My #2 and 3 RB's Mathews and Ingram are both out this week, and if I trade CJnoK, I'll need to start either B Jacobs or Ogbonnaya this week. 7 pts for td's, 1 pt per 10 yards. Sorry I'm late, but need to make decision today or won't fit this week. Thanks in advance, Mark Clure
Question 1: With Jonathan Baldwin’s breakout game...
Posted by MARK CLURE | Nov. 04 at 02:04 PM
Related to above...I guess I should ask the question. Which WR to take for CJ. Which of the 2 RB's to start.
Question 3: I have been playing fantasy...
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Nov. 04 at 03:31 PM
Think you have bad luck? In one league I'm in, most players are not sophisticated. My team: Stafford (&Tebow), Rice, McCoy, Nicks, Bryant, Gates (&Hernandez) and SF. Best team I ever had, anywhere. My record 3-5. I have scored the second most points in the league. I had a tie but they changed a sac of Tebow into a -6 yard run, and I lost. In another league I lost week one by less than 1 point. Last week I scored an incredible 220.04 points. Another player got 220.06 points. One extra passing yard and I would have won. Also lost recent games by 3 and 4 points. I'm 3-5. In a big money league I was doing pretty good. Jackie Battle got me a W with his OT production. Or so I thought. The results were not final. Somehow I lost when the final results were posted. Terrible year.
Question 5: I am the commissioner of...
Posted by Robert Heater | Nov. 04 at 02:15 PM
Yah I can't believe people would protest that deal either. Is everyone a Cal homer?
Question 5: I am the commissioner of...
Posted by Robert Heater | Nov. 04 at 02:19 PM
btw. Owner of team B is probably extra pissed right now since Hillis just re-injured his hammy and now there is probably no way team A makes that deal again.
Question 5: I am the commissioner of...
Posted by Sean Chi | Nov. 05 at 10:22 AM
I'm not saying I would've overturned this trade, but I can clearly see what seems to be an inbalanced trade. Starting with Jahvid Best vs. Peyton Hillis: Best plays in one of the most explosive offenses in the league, and if it's PPR, he's a top 10 points per game back this season. The main concern of course is whether he even plays again this year, but the expectation is that he's back next week. Hillis on the other hand, even if healthy which he's not, plays for a bad offense and was looking at a time share with Hardesty before he got hurt. So due to upside, I'd give the edge to Best. And then Gonzalez and Jets D really puts this trade into objectionable territory. Balmer and Smith are worthless unless he's playing in a 20 team league. Gonzalez is a top 5 TE statistically so far this year and the Jets D is #2 in standard yahoo fantasy scoring. Like I said, I'm not saying I would overturn this trade myself, but if the other 10 owners were all protesting it, I would probably do it.
Question 5: I am the commissioner of...
Posted by Dan Thomson | Nov. 05 at 11:15 AM
Q:5 Trade refused by commish..." Team A gave up Tony Gonzalez, Jahvid Best and Jets D/ST. Team B gave up Jake Ballard, Peyton Hillis and Alphonso Smith." I too would have blackballed this trade. If it had been just the RB's, then OK!!! BUT and really mean BUTT!In my league that is called stacking a buddies team...in my leagues, NYJ DEF is top 5, So is gonzalez. Ballard and smith are prospects. When championships are sometimes determined by a few points(and sometimes money is on the line)and any hint of giving up for this year, or a whiff of stacking, call B.S. Butt dat is my almost humble opinion fellas " Team A gave up Tony Gonzalez, Jahvid Best and Jets D/ST. Team B gave up Jake Ballard, Peyton Hillis and Alphonso Smith."
Question 5: I am the commissioner of...
Posted by Stephen Berg | Nov. 05 at 09:10 PM
I'll never understand why some owners feel the need to nitpick trades, and to a greater degeree, want to veto them. Was this trade meant to create imbalance in the league? Was collusion involved? Those are the only reasons a trade should be overruled (we actually had that happen in one of my leagues, and thankfully it got shot down). But in another league I run (it's not easy making trades as Commish) I did a deal where I got Megatron and the other guy got Bowe and McGahee (just prior to wrist injury). And a few in the league went bonkers. Why? You could nitpick it to death, but in the end the other guy got the depth he felt he needed. You might not agree with a deal, or even make the same deal yourself. But you have to all owners to make their own decisions and trade freely. Just as long as collusion isn't involved, of course. If you don't like trades, I say just eliminate them altogether.
Question 5: I am the commissioner of...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Nov. 05 at 09:23 PM
stephen- you are right..there are good trades and bad trades, but a trade is a trade..I am commish of several leauges, and really it comes down to intent. There can be a bad trade, but if i look into it and both sides can supply good lines of reasoning, or at least be convinced of their reasoning, then the trade is approved..if one side cant really offer a good explanation, or at least HAVE an explanation, then its vetoed..as you alluded to--often the diffence between a bad/dumb trade and a stack is INTENT.
Question 5: I am the commissioner of...
Posted by Dan Thomson | Nov. 06 at 09:31 AM
I guess the real disagreement is "what is the commission's job" That would make an awesome article.I disagree about bad trades.I believe it is the commisioner's duty to stop stupid or bad trades.it affects 10 other teams or so, not only the 2 in the trade. It affects the teams played for the rest of the season, it affects the finals, it affects the next years draft.P.S.Do not confuse bad trades with trades i would advise against. I agree with most of foster's point (intent) but still know that some guys are"slicker" then others and can convince the other fella it is fair.Berg's point about megatron is ok in the 1st week or 3 of season i would have agreed. Commish is the arbiter, and stupid trades allowed, bad trades aint
Question 5: I am the commissioner of...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Nov. 06 at 09:33 PM
of course, then you'd have to differentiate between what is stupid and what is bad, and that is a razor thin line....at the point where that starts happening, it comes down to very subjective opinions...then, of course, there is the human element of selfishness where several people will argue against the trade simply because by the nature of trading the two teams involved are getting better, and everyone else isnt, so some owners dont like any trade except their own. At that point, its better and more fun/fair to just eliminate trades if its going to be a big debate everytime one happens. And of coourse some guys are "slicker" than others, but thats the way it goes..some guys draft better, some guys have more time to spend on the waiveewr wire, or more money to spend on the wire- just like real nfl teams.. where does it stop???..its an un-even world...good luck to everyone in Tradeville..
Question 9: I noticed that in your...
Posted by MARTIN DONNELLY | Nov. 05 at 06:27 AM
This sort of analysis makes no sense at all. If Nicks is missing the game and your rankings are for one week, he should be OFF the list. If it's for the remainder of the year, a guy CLEARLY missing a week is of more value than a guy MAYBE missing a week because there is no risk of starting him. I mean, are we talking rotissorie here or are we playing fantasy games? Why would anyone care about his aggregate over the rest of the season?
Question 9: I noticed that in your...
Posted by Roy Sherman | Nov. 05 at 07:30 AM
The analysis makes perfect sense. In the redrafter, Nicks dropped a couple of spots because, at that time, it looked like he might play, but there was still some doubt. And as Ian pointed out in his reply, at this point in the season, sitting one game is a pretty big chunk. In the FI Weekly from Thursday, there was still some question about whether he would play or not, so the rankings reflect where he'd be IF active. The FI Weekly from last night doesn't have him listed because his status for this weekend is a lot clearer now. Also, I'm sure there are plenty of owners, myself included, that like to know the players' projected stats for the rest of the season. I use that and the FI Weekly to determine if (or who) I pick up a free agent from one week to the next.
Question 9: I noticed that in your...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Nov. 05 at 09:59 AM
@Martin. The Nicks question was asking about the redrafter rankings, in which were looking his value in Weeks 9-17. If a player is definitely going to miss one (or more) of those games, it definitely affects his value. Consider, for example, Brady and Brees. Maybe you see those guys as interchangeable. Brees isn't going to play in Week 11 (bye), so Brady projects to play one more game. That would make Brady more valuable on the overall board. This is the same kind of situation; when you find out Nicks is going to miss a game, it's like finding out he's got another bye coming up -- it causes him to fall.
Question 9: I noticed that in your...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Nov. 05 at 08:06 PM
ian- hi, i asked this question originally, and thanks for your response..the reasoning is along the lines that i suspected, though i still think 9 spots is a little bit too far..i have another question which is more specfiic as to your redrafter rankings- how detailed are they?-- more to the point, if nicks had a bye in two weeks, and wasnt injured, would he of had the same lower ranking?--even more to the point- if he still got to play the patriots 32nd ranked pass d, would that make him rank a little higher?...I dont know if i'm being clear enough, but do your redrafter rankings go as far in detail as to not only the games remaining and record of opponant, but do they also take into account the matchups they miss (good or bad)?...Nicks is killing me..i mean of all games to miss, why does it have to be against the best matchup of the year??...thanks.. i feel better now that i have whined and cried..(but am still curious as to the depth of detail in remaning redrafter ranking)--thanks again for your good work-jeff
Question 15: Would you trade Brady for...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Nov. 05 at 08:43 PM
Travis: that's pretty sarcastic.....pretty darn funny, too.