Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jun. 14 at 04:29 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
In my football pool last year, I had Peyton Manning as my quarterback, with Rex Grossman as my backup. I started Manning every week except during his bye, which happened to be the week Grossman played at Arizona. Our scoring system is 6 points per TD, 1 point per 25 passing yards, minus 2 points per fumble lost and minus 2 points per interception. Going into that Monday night game, I had a 4-point lead. Grossman totaled minus-7 points, causing me to lose that week by 3 points. I would have won had I left Manning in on his bye. I was wondering if you could tell me how Grossman’s performance ranks among the worst fantasy performances of all time.
Luke Serieys [Dartmouth, Nova Scotia]
A:
FIRST THINGS FIRST. To send in questions this year, you must first SIGN IN. Go to the main page of the website and enter your e-mail address into the user box. Then your password. Then, when you come to this screen, you'll be able to e-mail in your question. It's still free. There's no charge.
Great story. And that performance might be No. 1 all-time. But there have been a lot of bad ones over the years. Grossman himself had another one in that ballpark last season, going only 6 of 19 for 34 yards against Minnesota, with 3 interceptions. His 1.3 passer rating in the Vikings game was the lowest by a winning quarterback since Norm Snead of the Giants put up a zero in 1976. Jim Hardy of the Chicago Cardinals had a awful opener in 1950; he got in a car accident on the way to the game, missed warmups, then went on to complete only 12 of 39, with a record 8 interceptions. But Hardy at least finished with 193 passing yards and a touchdown, so he might have finished slightly ahead of Grossman. It depends on how many fumbles Hardy lost; I know he lost at least one of his 3 fumbles in that game, but lost fumbles weren’t tracked back then. Eight other quarterbacks have thrown 7 interceptions in games, and so many have thrown 6 interceptions that they don’t even list them anymore. My guess is that a couple of those 6-plus interception players also lost a fumble or two and didn’t throw a touchdown, putting them in the same neighborhood as Grossman. Len Dawson holds the record with 7 fumbles in a game, and 16 others have fumbled 5-6 times.
Question 2:
What is the status of free agent Domanick Williams (formerly known as Domanick Davis)? I am surprised (and concerned as a fantasy owner) that no team has picked up him up yet.
Mark McDermet [Lexington, S.C.]
A:
When he’s on his game, Williams looks like a young Priest Holmes. In 2005, he ran for 1,188 yards, scored 14 TDs and caught 68 passes. But he needs to get healthy – and show he can stay healthy. He missed last season after undergoing knee surgery, and he needed additional surgery in March after the knee swelled up on him in workouts. My gut feeling is that he’s never going to make it back. He’s not, in my opinion, one of the top 80 running backs on the board, even in a dynasty format. That said, however, it’s not particularly damning that the Texans released him; they were due to pay him starter money. If Williams can work his way back into reasonable physical condition, some team will sign him.
Question 3:
Can you tell me which skill-position players are entering the final years of their contracts?
Stoney Parker [Coupeville, Wash.]
A:
It looks like a better group than usual. At running back, there’s Larry Johnson, Michael Turner, Vernand Morency, Jamal Lewis, Musa Smith, Michael Bennett, T.J. Duckett. Quarterbacks include Marc Bulger, Tony Romo, Rex Grossman, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller and Josh McCown. At wide receiver, there’s Randy Moss, Bernard Berrian, Devery Henderson, Bryant Johnson, Patrick Crayton, Terrance Copper, Brandon Stokley, David Patten, Travis Taylor and Donte Stallworth (Stallworth is due $8 million in bonuses by next March, and the Patriots won’t pay that). Tight ends: Dallas Clark, L.J. Smith, Eric Johnson, Marcus Pollard, Jermaine Wiggins. Not all of these guys, of course, will become free agents. Bulger and Romo will probably sign new deals before opening day; others will sign extensions during the season. But considering that plenty of other players will be released in cap moves, it should make for a nice group of players for NFL teams to bid on next spring.
Question 4:
I was wondering if there is any hard evidence supporting the theory that players coming off a bye week actually perform better statistically in their next game.
Ryan Nesbott [Philadelphia]
A:
There’s really not. In the 2006 season, teams went 20-12 following bye weeks, but that was an aberration year. In the previous 16 years, teams had a combined win-loss record of 259-247, which isn’t significant. Whatever advantage there is to having an extra week to rest and prepare, apparently, is negated by the disadvantage of having some rust settle in.
Question 5:
Your preseason draft cheat sheets only include the top 35 players in a column on the left. Could you please include player rankings of the top 150 players to draft. This would make my draft much easier.
Dwayne Cox [Sicklerville, N.J.]
A:
With those updated August draft boards, you can see an overall top 50 if you look in other areas (it’s a top 35ish on the Cheat Sheet proper, but those rankings also get e-mailed to you in a different format). Regardless, outside of the top 35, those rankings start to get shaky, with other factors playing a big role. How many teams are in your league? What positions did you fill in the first four rounds? Does your league start two or three receivers? Does your league lump tight ends in with wide receivers? Does your league give 1 or 2 points for sacks and takeaways. If we were to put out a “top 100,” I would fear that many people would adhere to it too strictly, and it would hurt their teams. Better to list the positions separately.
Question 6:
Well, I'm back again with another for question for you, oh Yoda of fantasy football. I am deciding between Michael Vick and Vernon Davis as my third keeper. Is Davis' upside greater than Vick's?
Eugene Hitt [West Palm Beach, Fla.]
A:
I’d definitely go with Davis. He’s awfully strong and fast, and he’s young. He might have a breakout year and be the best thing short of Antonio Gates at that position for the next seven or so years. Davis, in fact, is the No. 2 tight end on my board in a keeper league. Contrast that to Vick, who’s made essentially no progress as a quarterback in the last five years. New coach Bobby Petrino says he wants Vick to be more of passer and less of a runner. That could be a disaster – the only thing Vick does well is run. And there are also the ugly off-field incidents, with the charges of dog-fighting and all. I don’t think Vick will be in Atlanta at this time next year.
Question 7:
I have heard recently of some leagues pioneering the use of team offensive lines in fantasy football. I'm wondering how OLs score points? All I can think of are two stats: team rushing yards, and sacks allowed. What scoring systems have you heard of for OLs?
Adam Holtz [Rochester, Minn.]
A:
I suppose you could score them on rushing yards, rushing average, sacks, passing yards, offensive points and sacks per pass play. But it doesn’t excite me. I’d be more interested in trying punters. If your punter finishes with a better average than your opponent’s punter, you would get 3 points.
Question 8:
Who would you pick in a keeper draft: Marshawn Lynch or Adrian Peterson? It seems that Lynch will be the better of the two this year, but it seems to me that with the multitude of two-back systems creeping up that Lynch may be the better keeper as well. Chester Taylor wore down last season, and Brad Childress may work the two the way he did in Philly with Westbrook, Buckhalter and Dorsey Levens. In Buffalo, they seem to be committed to the one-back system they’ve used in the past with Willis McGahee.
Chris Lozo [Buffalo]
A:
You raise some valid points, but in my opinion, you never pass on a potentially special player. Otherwise, two years down the road, everyone will keep asking you, “Tell me again, Chris, why was it you took Marshawn Lynch before Adrian Peterson?” Peterson looks like he could be a super back – the type of runner who comes along only about once every three years. Lynch, on the other hand, looks only average in comparison to other running backs selected in the first round. None of the last three running backs picked in the middle of the first round have made any impact as pros – Ron Dayne, William Green and T.J. Duckett. So in this case, I’m leaving Peterson ahead of Lynch on my board unless and until Lynch shows me something in the preseason games.
Question 9:
I have Michael Turner in two leagues, and while he might end up in Tennessee, if he doesn't, can you put LT on your cover?
Rob Dammers [Morris Plains, N.J.]
Question 10:
I'm in a one-team league. My keepers are Tomlinson, Addai (my gamble on the rookie paid off!) and Larry Johnson. My question is, should I waive Johnson to retain my first round pick (I think Manning might be available!) or should I keep all three backs and try to win with depth? Thanks for the help! With your advice, I've only lost the league title once in the last ten years (you guessed it, the Tatum Bell thing) so keep it coming!
William Rehor [Los Angeles]
A:
I thought I was going to sneak through the first mailbag with no Tatum Bell references, but no such luck.
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Question 7: I have heard recently of...
Posted by Alan Hight | Jul. 03 at 02:56 PM
Try This On; been using this for 10 years http://www.geocities.com/alanhffl/Rulez/offense.htm