Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jun. 22 at 08:24 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
With the suspensions of Sean Payton what will be the effect on the numbers for the Saints players in 2012? Assuming Brees does not holdout.
ERIC SCOLNICK [Redmond, WA]
A:
I think we’ll see a sharp dropoff for New Orleans. Losing Payton hurts. They also don’t have Robert Meachem. More notably, however, that offense had a great year, and those kind of seasons are hard to follow up. Since the NFL went to the 16-game season, 17 other teams averaged over 30 points per game. One of those teams (the Greatest Show on Turf Rams) came back and scored MORE points. Two other finished in the same neighborhood. The 49ers in 1995 and the Rams in 2001 declined by only 2-3 points per game. But 12 of those 17 teams declined by at least 5 points per game.
Question 2:
When, approximately, will the 2012 magazine be delivered
DAVID GARRICK [Coronado, CA]
A:
I believe you’ll receive it in the mail early next week. I am told copies of the magazine will show up at the office on Monday.
Question 3:
I haven't seen your upcoming rankings yet. I'm in a keeper league and currently hold the 4th overall pick. Richardson, Griffin & Luck will go top 3. How good do you think Doug Martin can be? Will he be Tampa's bellcow back throughout the season?
Michael Dylkiewicz [ORLAND PARK, IL]
A:
The Muscle Hamster is your guy. Definitely the player to select with that No. 4 pick. Over the next four years, he might even outproduce all three of the other guys you mention. Martin is a well-rounded, all-purpose back, and he’s the guy the Bucs are trying to build around this season. Their offensive line seems to be pretty good.
Question 4:
Our league lets you keep two players, two rounds higher than they were drafted the year before. I'm already keeping A.J. Green (costing me a 9th round pick this year), but which of these two should I keep. Aaron Hernandez or Antonio Brown? Hernandez would cost me a 10th round pick while Brown would cost an 11th.
David Karsjens [BLAINE, MN]
A:
I will take Brown over Hernandez, regardless of whether you combine tight ends or wide receivers or treat them separately (and igoring the values of the draft picks). I just think Brown will be slightly better. He really came on last year after the Steelers moved him ahead of Hines Ward, catching 51 passes for 846 yards in his final 10 games. In a full 16-game season, I think he’s got a reasonable chance of getting 80-plus passes for 1,200-1,300 yards and about 8 TDs.
Question 5:
I know its early but a PPR question. Trade would be McFadden for Welker. Thoughts
Gary Wool [PHILADELPHIA, PA]
A:
I’ve got Welker slightly higher in a PPR format. He’ll catch a half-dozen passes in a lot of games, and that makes him a reliable contributor. If you want to assume McFadden will play in all 16 games, he would be the clear choice, but he’s missed at least three games in every one of his four seasons in the pros.
Question 6:
First let me say I love your book have bought it every year since 1994 but you really need to work on your keeper league cheat sheet. First you need to call it a Dynasty league cheat sheet because everyone is now playing in dynasty leagues were you keep players as long as you want they are all over the place and very few are "keeper" leagues. You need to start looking at players value over a long period of time not for a few years. I am looking back just 2 years ago at the 2010 list and some things stand out as "what the heck we're they thinking". At TE Shockey, Heap and Bo Scaife were all rated ahead of Jimmy Graham and Gronkowski. Sure we did not know at that time those 2 would now be the top 2 TE's in the game but in dyansty leagues they were going in the 2nd rounds of rookie drafts and I am pretty sure guys like Shockey, Heap and Scaife were on waiver wires in dynasty leagues all around the world. So why would I trade a 2nd round value player for a guy who is on waiver wire ? There was no potential in keeping over the hill stiffs over drafting up and coming potential studs. Those 3 games just to name a few should not have been so high on your list. This goes across the board from QB, RB, WR, ect too many old guys are listed way too high. Sure the young players might bust but the old players in 1-2 years if not sooner are already toast anyway. Looking back just 2 years later you can see so many misses. Forte 34th RB ? McCoy 21st RB?
Henry Muto [GENEVA, OH]
A:
I appreciate the criticism. Really. Per your suggestion, you will see “Dynasty Cheat Sheet” rather than “Keeper League Cheat Sheet” in this year’s magazine. But as far as picking through previous year’s lists and trying to find guys who are too high or too low, then you’re just getting into the game of hindsight being 20-20. Jimmy Graham, for example, was a college basketball player that the Saints hoped to turn into a viable tight end. He was just a third-round draft pick – four other tight ends were selected before him. While I would have loved to have made him the No. 5 tight end on my keeper, er, “Dynasty”, league board, would you also have listed the other four rookie tight ends ahead of him? What was it that you saw back in 2010 that made you so sure that Graham, after hardly even playing football in college, would develop into an All-Pro in his second year? When I’m putting together that list, I’m working under the assumption there will be some player movement, and whatnot, which favors the veterans. At kicker, for example, Greg Zeurlein is a young kicker who may be around for 15-20 years, but with the way guys come and go at that position, you’re probably better simply picking a late-30s guys like Matt Bryant or Neil Rackers. Quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady may be nearing the ends of their careers, but those guys still have value.
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Question 1: With the suspensions of Sean...
Posted by Scott Anderson | Jun. 22 at 09:00 AM
Can't wait for the mag, been buying since 1997! Since I can't wait to see your rankings, one question: How valuable do you see Hillis in the situation in KC? Is Charles gonna be 100% from the get-go?
Question 6: First let me say I...
Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Jun. 22 at 09:02 AM
I think that the issue here is your plan. In a dynasty league, there will be some who tend to focus on the "win-this-year" plan. Others will be willing to sacrifice one or even two years to build a roster that could theoretically win a championship multiple years in a row. Others yet might try to pull of both. That perspective greatly alters dynasty rankings. It seems to me like Ian's rankings lean more toward the side of winning now, thus justifying his placement of younger guys with upside below veterans with consistent but capped value. Henry -- along with many others -- seem to put their eye more toward the keeper side. One other factor is that Ian's rankings most likely reflect a new keeper league. One that exists, already, will value different players greatly based on existing rosters.
Question 6: First let me say I...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jun. 22 at 05:05 PM
If you favor young guys with upside, you will probably be pleased with the placement of Luck, Richardson, and some others this year. Btw, my dynasty league is by far my favorite, and I am with you on the youngsters over middling veterans. But even a dynasty team needs both, because so many kids go bust. Other first and second-round dynasty picks from that same draft as Gronk and Graham were Montario Hardesty, Toby Gerhart, Golden Tate, Dexter McCluster....not the stuff titles are made of.