Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 06 at 02:29 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Looking for some of your thoughts/comments on injury prone players like Vick/McFadden. I feel like you may be slightly undervaluing them. It appears your rankings are based solely on projected total # of points for a player. However isn't the goal to have as many points as possible for each starting position? Thus, you could argue that when these players are hurt you will have a backup filling their roles and thus some value must be given to the points these backups will acquire while your star is hurt. Wouldn't some sort of modified formula make more sense? Maybe (Vick's PPG x #Games) + (Backups PPG x #backupgames)?
gary metz [HIGHLANDS RANCH, CO]
That’s good analysis, and an intriguing issue. For me, I’m looking for some balance. I believe Michael Vick, looking solely at per-game numbers, will be better than Romo, Rivers, Ryan and Eli Manning. But all of those guys are far more likely to play in all 16 games. That’s big, in my opinion. Then you’re not worried about drafting a good No. 2 quarterback. With Vick, you not only will need to find a good backup, there also are the additional issues. He may get hurt early in a game, causing you to take a really poor score that week. There might also be games where it’s in doubt whether he’ll even play. You draft one of those other quarterbacks, and you’re far more likely to avoid those kind of problems. With this issue, I think your league rules can play a factor. If you’re in an 8- or 10-team league, with small rosters, maybe you can bank on a decent quarterback being available on the waiver wire. In other formats, maybe it’s much harder to obtain a viable fill-in starter. That would affect where you would slot guys like Vick and McFadden. They do have potential. If you look solely at guys I believe will start 10-plus games, Vick comes in 3rd in projected points per game, behind only Rodgers and Brady. At running back, I’ve got McFadden as No. 8 in per-game production, behind Foster, Rice, McCoy, Mathews, Richardson, Jones-Drew and Lynch. To see complete per-game projections for each player, you can download our Excel stat projections file off the website.
I've won 7 division titles in the last 11 years and if it wasn't for DeAngelo Williams limping off the field 3 years ago I'd have a 4-peat! (thanks Ian) Based on my past successes, I'm already assuming I'm going to win my division, therefore I'm already playing for weeks 15 and 16. Any must-have studs for those weeks? I'm thinking I want the Houston D for starters. Foster will be a keeper for another team
James COSTELLO [SOUTH PORTLAND, ME]
Houston leads the way. It’s at home those weeks against Indianapolis and Minnesota. Foster, Schaub, Andre Johnson and the defense (as you point out) – those are nice guys to have. The Texans are the clear No. 1 option for Weeks 15-16 (in terms of value versus the other 15 weeks). On the next tier down, I will put Kansas City (home against Colts in Week 16, and at Oakland in Week 15). Also Carolina (at San Diego and then at home against the Raiders). I’m not sold on either of those two AFC West defenses. Philadelphia is at home for both of those weeks, against Cincinnati and Washington. Not great matchups, but who really knows? I could live with that pair. Also note that the Rams will play Minnesota and Tampa Bay those two weeks; that’s pretty good. If St. Louis takes a step or two in the right direction, that offense becomes a sleeper option for those two weeks. Tampa Bay is in the same boat, with its games against New Orleans and St. Louis. Best of luck getting that fourth title.
The lockout last year made for some big problems last year in the publishing world, but I think it gave birth to one of the best things to happen to Fantasy Football in a long time: The PDF of the FFI! I was really excited again this year to order the FFI in a digital format, and was quite disappointed to see it not an option. Are there any plans in '13 to make your content available through digital means? I would rather pay $10 for an FFI app than to wait to get it in print form. I will hang up and listen to the answer.
Marty Borotsik [Victoria, BC]
The tech guys are working on it. I saw a sample last week. They’re getting close. The pdf last year was pretty basic. This one will be more advanced. The stories will be reformatted so they display a lot nicer on an iPad. In short, each on-paper page in the magazine will be turned into two pages for tablet viewing. There are some problematic areas they’re working on. The experts poll stuff, for example, but hopefully it will be available soon.
Ian, in a 12 team flex league that starts 1-2 RBs, 1-3 WR and 1-2 TEs (need 5 starters from these groups) with PPR scoring, where do Graham and Gronk rank overall?
marc price [kelowna, BC]
With that much roster flexibility, I suggest you just ignore positions. Simply call running backs, receivers and tight ends “players” and select the best ones available. Halfway through the draft, if you find you’re getting too many backs or receivers, you can adjust your list accordingly. According to my projections, Graham and Gronkowski will be outproduced by 15 other players – six running backs and nine wide receivers.
Would you please rank the top 10 rookies in the draft. In particular, what are your thoughts on two rookies, Isaiah Pead and Coby Fleener.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
There are four who really interest me. Luck, Griffin, Richardson and Martin. And Randy Bulluck (I think he’ll be a top-10 kicker). In a dynasty-type format, I would take Luck over Griffin. If you’re looking at just 2012, I would go with Griffin. With his rushing production, I think he could be sneaky good. Richardson and Martin should be the first two rookies selected if you’re interested primarily in this year. They should both be full-time running backs, and there simply aren’t a lot of those guys around. I haven’t fallen in love yet with any of the wide receivers or tight ends. Fleener is an interesting guy. They used him as a downfield target at Stanford. He caught only 34 passes, but he averaged 19.6 yards per reception. He was getting downfield. Most wide receivers never average 19.6 yards per catch in a season. It will be interesting to see how the Colts use him. He’ll be playing with the same quarterback, but his role could be completely different. He could be more of an outlet receiver. I see Pead as similar to Robert Turbin, Bernard Pierce and Ronnie Hillman. Those guys are No. 2 backs. But if and when the starters go down, they’ll be thrust into large roles. I don’t think Steven Jackson can stay healthy, so I expect Pead to start some games this year. The rookies are analyzed more carefully in the eight-page feature in the magazine.
I am so happy to have the magazine in my hands for another fun year of fantasy! I am writing you because I am having a problem in my league. I am in a 16-team all-family league. My family is debating on adding four teams and splitting the league into two with two separate drafts. The champions of each "division" play for the championship. In my opinion this is no longer one league. Maybe I am old school, but I say one draft is one league, two drafts is really two leagues. Have you heard of this before? This is new to me.
DAVID BOZZELLI [INDIANAPOLIS, IN]
When you get up 20 teams, you have to decide whether you want two conferences (with the talent really spread thin) or two leagues. With two leagues, you’ll have better waiver options and better teams. Arian Foster, Aaron Rodgers, etc. will be on two teams. It will be easier for teams to stay active and involved. On the downside, you will frequently end up with the same player appearing for both teams in the championship game. You could mirror the European soccer leagues and simply go with two teams. The winner of the 10-team First Division is the overall family champion. The winner of the 10-team Second Division, which may include some lesser teams – grandparents, 6-year-olds, etc. – wins just as much money but can’t claim family supremacy. Each year, the bottom 3 teams in the First Division get demoted and the top 3 teams in the Second Division get promoted.
I am in a keeper league where we keep 3 players. It's pretty standard scoring with 1 point per reception and 10 yards / 1 point and 6 point TDs. I have a situation where I have 4 solid players and am looking to move one. I am definitely keeping Arian Foster. The other 3 are Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Demarco Murray. My first inclination is to trade Adrian Peterson, but I would be interested to get another take.
Dan Bridy [SCHWENKSVILLE, PA]
I like the idea of trading Peterson. It’s either that or babysit him through the season, hoping he will re-emerge in 2013. I think you’ve already got the best ball out of him. I’d rather roll with those other two.
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