Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 20 at 05:07 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
If Foster, Rice and McCoy are gone, who do I take with the 4th pick in standard scoring? If I don't take Rodgers, I could expect to get the 4th QB with my RD2 pick, 5th QB in RD3 or 6th QB in RD4, based on the last three years' history in this league. If Rodgers goes before the fourth pick, do I automatically take one of the big three RBs?
Richard Weber [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
There’s a chess game with the quarterbacks. If you simply look at the numbers and assume all the other owners will act as you do, then you take Rodgers there. The numbers (my numbers, anyway) suggest he’s the No. 3 player on the board. But when you start factoring in what other owners will do, that can change things. I think the No. 4 quarterback (Newton) is worth the 16th pick; you’re assuring me he’ll be there at 20. I’ve got Stafford just behind Newton, and you’re telling me he’ll be there at 28th in a 12-team league. I think Eli Manning is the No. 27 player, and you’re assuring me he’ll be there at 45. And as a nice backup plan, there are other good quarterbacks as well, and it would be nice to be positioned to pick up that excellent value in the middle rounds. If you take Rodgers in the first round or Newton in the second, you’re out of that game. Calvin Johnson needs to be in the discussion; you don’t want to try to force the No. 4 running back into that draft slot. According to my numbers, however, there’s a pretty big difference between Rodgers and Newton – 65 fantasy points. So while it’s fun to play around with the different scenarios, I think Rodgers is the guy to take if Foster, Rice and McCoy are off the board. Another option to consider is to see if anybody in your league will toss you an extra draft pick for trading down. That would be appealing as well.
Question 2:
I've been in a 10-team league, for years now where we start 1 QB, 2 RBs and 4 WR/TE. Passing TDs are worth 6 points. My dilemna is I have the first pick in a snake draft and according to my custom cheat sheets, Rodgers and Brady are listed 1 & 2 just ahead of Foster. I was planning on taking Foster, but should I go with Rodgers or Brady. Or do I take Foster and hope for a QB the likes of Rivers or Romo? Could you please shed some light on this for me?
Paul Davis [MINERAL CITY, OH]
A:
I wonder if the owner in the No. 3 spot would be willing to give up a little something to trade up. I’ve got the numbers in front of me, and there’s a plateau at the top. Rodgers, Brady and Foster – those are your top 3. If you offered to trade down to No. 4, would an owner take somebody other than one of those three? That’s another possibility to consider. With 6 points for TD passes, Rodgers looks like a pretty secure No. 1. I don’t see much difference between Brady and Foster. As I look at the overall top 50, I see plenty of running backs and quarterbacks littered throughout. If you select Foster first and assume you can get Eli Manning at 20th (I consider him to be No. 12 in this format) that would be about 670 combined points. If you went with Rodgers first and then got Marshawn Lynch or DeMarco Murray near the end of the second, the overall production would be about the same. If Trent Richardson or Ryan Mathews fell to the end of the second round, you would come out ahead with Rodgers. It’s a little awkward going after the second tier quarterbacks (Rivers, Newton, Romo, Ryan) because it’s too early to select them at 2.10 or 3.01, but they’ll all be gone before 4.10. If you wait for the 4.10 or 5.01 spot, then you’ll probably be hitching up the wagon behind Peyton Manning. And that’s not a typo with Rivers and Newton. If we’re saying that passing touchdowns are worth 6 points (just like rushing scores), I’ve got him just ahead of Newton.
Question 3:
I joined a keeper league recently (taking over an existing team) and I need some advice. It's a traditional yardage league: 6 pts for all TDs and .5 ppr. My potential keepers were Nicks, J.Nelson, Greene and Blount. I made a trade to give up my 4th-round pick for Miles Austin. Is keeping Nicks, Nelson and Austin the best choice? I have the 4th pick in the upcoming draft and I hope to select a RB, followed by another RB and QB over the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I may go all-in with Trent Richardson with my 1st pick if he is available. Thoughts?
Ted Adams [WALKER, LA]
A:
You keep all three of those fine receivers (you get to start all of them, right?). They might all be top-10 guys. You would love to have Trent Richardson or Doug Martin sitting there when you’re picking 4th. Both of them project to be full-time backs who’ll be involved in their teams’ passing games. Those guys should be solid and maybe star-type guys in 2013 and 2014. I am not sure of the exact setup of the league, but Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III could be in the discussion for that first-round pick. Luck could be a Brees-Brady-Manning type quarterback. How long do you get to keep him? Griffin has the great mobility, so he’ll probably be better than Luck this year.
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