Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 07 at 02:20 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I believe in raising the value of players in a contract year. Could you please provide a list of the most fantasy relevant contract year players for this season? If you have discussed this already in a previous mailbag, let me know the date.
MARCUS COLE [MAPLE GROVE, MN]
A:
Quarterbacks: Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub.
Running backs: Reggie Bush, Peyton Hillis, Isaac Redman, Michael Turner, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs, Kevin Smith.
Wide receivers: Dwayne Bowe, Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Greg Jennings, Danny Amendola, Malcom Floyd, Devery Henderson, Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Jerome Simpson.
Tight ends: Jason Witten, Fred Davis, Martellus Bennett, Dallas Clark.
Kickers: Rob Bironas, Phil Dawson, Nate Kaeding, Mike Nugent, Neil Rackers.
Question 2:
I tend to heavily rely on SOS when deciding what defence to start or to pick up on the waiver wire. I've never seen SOS split out for defences based on home or away games. My "perception" is that defences do a lot better playing at home, and therefore the SOS doesn't tell the whole story. Do you have any data to support or debunk my perception?
marc price [kelowna, BC]
A:
I used to spend a lot of time tracking home vs. away stats. I didn’t find much there. I have the 2006 numbers in front of me (I haven’t got the numbers for the last five years). In 2006, defenses allowed 20.2 points per game at home and 21.1 on the road – not a big difference. With the home-field advantage, they allowed 8 fewer rushing yards (122 to 114 per game) but only 2 more passing yards (205 to 203). There were 102 touchdowns scored on returns of kicks and takeaways; 56 by home teams and 46 by road teams. My conclusion was that there wasn’t enough of a difference that I should be starting an average defense at home rather than a good defense on the road.
Question 3:
I know that you (as a fantasy football analyst) have to watch preseason games. What do you look for? How do you adjust what you see by the game situation? By that I mean, for example, a backup RB whips off a long run, but it's against the other team's second-team defense. It seems it would be easy to read too much into some of what you see.
Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
I try to avoid overreacting to overall production. The three leading rushers in the preseason last year were Kendall Hunter, Da’Rell Scott and Armond Smith. Stephen McGee and Richard Bartel were the two quarterbacks to go over 500 yards. And Taj Smith and Matthew Slater ranked 2nd and 3rd in receiving yards. (Antonio Brown was your receiving yards leader, and he wound up putting together a breakout season). Instead, I tend to try to focus on identifying which players are working with the first-unit offense. If the Cardinals are planning on Michael Floyd being a big part of their offense, for example, you would think he’d be getting some time with the first team. And is there anybody who seems to be out of shape or in much better shape?
Question 4:
Our league starts 1 RB, 2 WR, with 2 flex that can be RB/WR/TE. Essentially, we could start 3 RBs each week and my strategy is to draft exactly for that purpose. After estimating number of player more than minimum bid and total players taken by position, the auction values really we surprising. In the half point PPR, Top QB and RB are 35% of budget, while the top WR is only 21%. Top TE, 17%. I feel comfortable with the numbers, but I was only concerned that I may be under valuing the top WRs and over valuing the mid and lesser RBs. Thank you for taking the time to consider my question and any feedback will be appreciated.
Gary Walker [DEDHAM, MA]
A:
Why do you have your heart set on running backs? With two flex players, running backs and wide receivers become interchangeable. You need only start one running back. So throw out the positions and look simply at the top 60 point producers at those positions. (With 12 teams each starting 5, there will be 60 starters at those positions). According to my projections only 23 of the 60 will be running backs. That should be a receiver-heavy auction. In deciding which ones will go for more than the league minimum, make sure the cheapest players at RB, WR and TE all project to score about the same number of points. I suggest you re-run the numbers with about 80 of those players getting more than the minimum – 38 WR, 11 TE and 31 RBs.
Question 5:
I've been playing fantasy football for 30 years, but this year, I'm taking the foray into a true dynasty league, where we keep all our players year over year, for the first time. Clearly, I'm looking at drafting younger players much earlier than normal, but how dramatically should I move up them up my draft board. For example, is Andrew Luck a 8th rounder, a 5th rounder, 2nd rounder? Do I draft WRs over RBs since they tend to have longer careers? In short, how much does the dynasty aspect change the drafting dynamic?
Geoff Maleman [LOS ANGELES, CA]
A:
It’s a different game. There’s always value in drafting guys who’ll help now. And I think you always draft knowing that nobodies and late-round guys will step up and thrive. Victor Cruz and Antonio Brown, for example, were not coveted first-round picks. They just showed up. Running backs will get hurt, so second-stringers like Rashad Jennings, Isaiah Pead and Robert Turbin will become big-time guys. But I think it’s the blue-chip quarterbacks that drive today’s game. If you could step in the time machine and travel backwards a Peyton Manning, Drew Brees or Tom Brady is a horse you can ride for 10-plus years. Andrew Luck, to me, seems to be on another level above the typical rookie quarterback. I would go into a dynasty draft working under the assumption he’s got a very good chance to develop into a Manning-Brees-Brady guy. And he’s 22 years old. I would select Luck ahead of all of the quarterbacks except Aaron Rodgers (and the way Rodgers runs around, I’m not sure Luck won’t be better than him as well). In a dynasty draft, I would be thrilled to select Luck in the second round.
Question 6:
In the San Diego quarterback section of the 'bible' there's a line that states that Rivers could be as good or better than Brady, Brees, Stafford and both Mannings. Could you please elaborate a little more about this?
James COSTELLO [ PORTLAND, ME]
A:
He’s a big-time quarterback. He could be right there with those guys. I worry about the offensive line – it’s pretty awful. And Robert Meachem ain’t no Vincent Jackson. But Antonio Gates supposedly in great shape, and Vincent Brown is the wild card who could really help that receiving corps.
Question 7:
Whenever I have second thoughts about signing up for your product, I think back to 2008 when you had Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall way higher than all other experts. You knew Forte would be something special, and you correctly predicted that Marshall would win his suspension appeal and only sit out one game. Historically who are the most prominent diamonds in the rough that you have come up with, and are there any players that fit the bill this year?
DANIEL FORD [ROCHESTER, NY]
A:
I’m not big on bragging. I don’t think people want to hear you talk about how you were high on this guy or that. When I read those kind of claims, I always ask myself, “Who were the half-dozen guys you were really wrong on? Why aren’t they mentioned?” And I don’t think the readers want me spending a bunch of time trying to document which of our picks were better and worse than others. I have flipped open the magazine and looked at the Experts Poll. Skimming down those lists, these are the guys we’re either higher or lower on than the vast majority of those 20 analysts. I believe I’m lower than all 20 on Cutler, Forte, Welker. I believe I am higher than all 20 on RG3 (scrambling dimension), Miles Austin (pre-hamstring injury), A.J. Green, Jacob Tamme, Julio Jones, Cruz, Decker and Luck. I think I tied for highest on RB Richardson (but I’ve now soured on him a little). I was one of the lowest on Jones-Drew, Britt and Marshall. High on A.Bradshaw, Randy Bullock, Jordy Nelson, Demaryious Thomas and Doug Martin. Low on A.Peterson, Vernon Davis, Jason Hanson, Baltimore Def, Vincent Jackson, Colston and Gore.
Question 8:
I am doing a 2-QB league this year and I remember a few years ago I did one and there was an option in the custom scoring sheet to put in starting 2 QBs ... but I can’t find how to do that.
Ian Nelson [BOCA RATON, FL]
A:
Go to the website. In the gray bar, click on “Custom Cheat Sheet”. In the gray bar on the next screen, click on “Scoring Profiles”. In that area, create a new scoring profile. Put in your scoring system. There will be a button to click on for auctions. Click on it (even if you’re not in an auction). For a regular 12-team league, you would want to see about 14 QB, 35 RB and 40 WR go for more than the $1 minimum. For a double quarterback league, go with about 24 QBs being worth more than the $1 minimum, and take will give you the overall list that’s more accurate for your league.
Question 9:
Here's my set up. 14 team keeper league. I'm keeping Stafford in the 6th, Ben Tate in the 7th, and Eric Decker in the 12. I've got the 6th pick first round. I'm probably looking at Calvin Johnson, Chris Johnson, or some other not top 3 RB at that pick. Do I take Calvin that early and combo him with Stafford? Or is it smarter to take an RB and wait on WR which is fairly deep this year?
Eric Stroker [CHESTERFIELD, MI]
A:
I have the two Johnsons as similar in value. It would be nice to take the Chris Johnson so you don’t get boxed into overdrafting a running back in the third, fourth or fifth round.
Question 10:
My league is heavy on QB emphasis. 6 points for passing TDs so there is always an early run and I usually miss out. I am going with Brees if he is there when I pick at #7 overall in a 12-man non-PPR standard league or Stafford if Brees is gone. My league mates also still love RBs and I'll need to take one at the 18th pick. Obviously the top studs will be long gone, but I need your advice among the likely available options: Lynch, Murray, S. Jackson. I think Richardson will be picked before 18 and I am not sure if I trust him enough anyway (and I am a Browns fan!) but this is fantasy football, right! I think it is too early for Martin, Bradshaw or F. Jackson. What are your thoughts?
Melissa Watts [FLORENCE, SC]
A:
I just plugged in the numbers and looked at the overall board. I would go with a QB at No. 7 if Rodgers, Brady or Brees is there. If not, I would select one of the “C. Johnsons”, either Calvin or Chris. Then you’re hoping for Stafford or Manning at 18. If they’re gone, I’d go with a RB or WR again and plan on addressing the quarterback situation in the third round. There will be an acceptable quarterback available in the third – maybe somebody like Ryan, Rivers or Romo. The ballsy play is to try to get Peyton Manning in the fourth.
Question 11:
League I am in is PPR with 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1RB/WR/TE, 1Def, 1K as starters. Return yards are given to skilled positions which makes some players more valuable than in other leagues. Last season Darren Sproles and Antonio Brown had more FP than almost all other RB, WR's. Can you give me tips as to good picks for such a draft? Thanks and really enjoy your publication, have purchased every year, even last year when only online. Best fantasy mag I am aware of.
Mike Haskins [EARLSBORO, OK]
A:
I posted a chart on this topic a few weeks back. It’s listed among the “Wall Photos” at the Facebook page. You want to focus on kickoff returners, not punt returners. There are a lot more yards at stake on kickoffs (even with the revised rules on touchbacks). Of the top 19 players in return yards last year, every one of them gained more yards on kickoff returns. Four of these guys, I think, also will play prominently on the field this year. Sproles, Brown, Randall Cobb and Devin Hester. Those are the four I would focus on for now. And I would keep an eye on Brandon Tate of the Bengals; he might start at wide receiver. I will know more, of course, after the first two rounds of preseason games.
Question 12:
I'm in two leagues where the division winner gets a bye week 13. If you throw out week 13 and week 17 does this significantly change any teams strength of schedule for the year? Thanks for crunching numbers.
Jason Howes [STEWARTVILLE, MN]
A:
I see a few winners and losers. Arizona gets to avoid road games against the Jets and 49ers. Baltimore skips Pittsburgh and at Cincinnati. Carolina avoids at Kansas City and at New Orleans. The Rams avoid the 49ers and a trip to Seattle. The Chargers lose a pair of home game I believe they’ll win (against Cincinnati and Oakland). The 49ers also lose a soft pair (at St. Louis and at home against Arizona). Four teams will play the same opponent in each of those weeks. Minnesota vs. Green Bay, and Miami vs. New England. If the Packers and Patriots are again super soft against the pass (I don’t think they will be, particularly late in the year), that will work against the Vikings and Dolphins.
Question 13:
Great job over the years. Our league just had it's 28th draft, and we reward running QBs, and receiving RBs. TD only, and the distance of the TD. Is it possible to add this feature to your custom scoring profile?
JOHN SOKOLOSKY [WILBURTON, OK]
A:
Do you want different points for different positions? Is this the old “Franchise Fantasy Football League” format, where a player gets double value for an out-of-position touchdown? That is, a running back would receive twice as many points for a receiving touchdown, and a receiver would receive double value for a rushing touchdown? Quarterbacks receive twice as much for a rushing touchdown. We have the itemized stat projections to support those kind of projections. Download the Excel stat projection file, and you’ll see them in there. If you know your way around Excel, you’ll be able to tabulate those.
Question 14:
I've been a reader since I was just 8 years old (that's 15 years now!) and I've been struggling with this decision all offseason. I have Foster, whom I can protect for a 1st round pick (7th overall). I can also protect DeMarco Murray for a 16th round pick (final round, as he was a FA pickup). By my projections: Newton, Chris Johnson, Rodgers, Jones-Drew, Rice, Cruz, Matthews, and Brees will all be protected. That leaves a lot of talent still out there (mainly McCoy, Brady, Calvin). If I choose not to protect Foster, I expect to pick 3rd in the first round (since some teams will use their 1st rounders as keepers), solidifying me of of those 3 choices - assuming Foster will be chosen 1st overall. Does it make more sense to run with Murray and draft fresh this year?
Ian MacEwen [STOW, OH]
A:
This is a harder decision than some might expect. In general terms, if you keep Murray, you get a nice starter in the 16th round. I’ve got him with a pow number of about 75 points. But if you throw Foster back in the pool, your first-rounder should decrease in value by about 40-65 points – Foster is better than McCoy, Brady and Megatron. There’s something to be said for just penciling him in as the big horse you’ll big everything around. I would keep Murray, but that’s a lot easier to say when it’s your team and not mine.
Question 15:
We use protections based on last year's draft position. I get to keep three players. I have Foster and Rodgers and will protect both of them at a cost of a 1st and 2nd round pick. I can choose between Hernandez (13th) and Antonio Brown (17th). I am leaning towards Brown. Good move?
chris holland [, ]
A:
This is a similar kind of question. The raw numbers suggest that Hernandez and Brown are probably the best two guys to keep. I don’t have the scoring system or league size or exact draft positions (maybe if you don’t keep Foster, you could still draft him in the first round?) but there’s a case that can be made for the two lower-priced guys. On the flip side, there’s definitely something to be said for simply keeping the projected No. 1 players at both running back and quarterback. That’s a nice foundation to build from. Brown definitely grades out higher than Hernandez.
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Question 1: I believe in raising the...
Posted by Richard Weber | Aug. 07 at 05:58 PM
Ian, you threw in an offhanded comment that you have "now soured on Richardson a little," but you never followed up on that. I'm very curious about this, given that your magazine ranks him 4th among RBs. How much have you soured? Why?
Question 1: I believe in raising the...
Posted by BILL REHOR | Aug. 08 at 04:27 PM
Andy, I'd throw Michael Bush into the same category. I don't like either Bush or Forte while they're sharing but if one gets hurt, the other guy is solid gold, don't you think?
Question 9: Here's my set up. 14...
Posted by David Kennedy | Aug. 07 at 02:38 PM
If its PPR def Caivin. But personally I would go Calvin no matter what. He is undiputed number one WR and unstoppable. No Brainer in my estimation. Chris is somewhat of an unknown quantity this year.
Question 9: Here's my set up. 14...
Posted by David Grace | Aug. 07 at 07:02 PM
The other advantage with taking Chris over Calvin is you diversify your roster. If the Lions have a bad game you will almost certainly lose and if Stafford has a monster game you probably don't need the monster game that Calvin is likely to give you. It's not just total points that matter, it's when you score them. I remember a few years ago we had an owner who had Manning and Harrison, he finished 1st and points and missed the playoffs with a 7-7 record. His top players always had big weeks at the same time, so he was very boom or bust.
Question 10: My league is heavy on...
Posted by Brett Watts | Aug. 07 at 08:26 PM
Thanks for posting my question Ian. So, assuming I can land a stud QB at #7 overall in my league where QB's get 6 points for passing TD's, what RB's do you like at #18 for my second round pick and why? If available, I am leaning towards Lynch, Murray, or S. Jackson.
Question 10: My league is heavy on...
Posted by Scott Trautsch | Aug. 08 at 02:00 PM
Just like any other scoring system it pays not to get caught up in a run. My usual SOP is to separate players in to tiers so if I have say three QBs listed as premier, three RBS and two receivers then I won't pick that 4th QB until the top-tier RBs and WRs are taken.
Question 13: Great job over the years....
Posted by JOHN SOKOLOSKY | Aug. 08 at 10:17 AM
Yes that's the scoring system, we got it from a "Miller Lite" salesman about 30 yrs. ago and have used it ever since. Just curious if it could be added, and thank's for the reply. John
Question 14: I've been a reader since...
Posted by James COSTELLO | Aug. 07 at 06:24 PM
I absolutely would keep Foster without hesitation. In week 15 which is the game that usually determines the Fantasy Super Bowl participants, I'd rather have Foster going against Indy than Murray against Pittsburgh.
Question 14: I've been a reader since...
Posted by Russ Neis | Aug. 07 at 09:43 PM
Does anybody have any hesitation on Foster since it was reported to turn vegan? With him being injured with hamstrings and the protein you get from eating meat if he gets hurt it may take longer to heal.
Question 14: I've been a reader since...
Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | Aug. 08 at 08:46 AM
I will most likely catch hell for this thought but i would worry about the vegan rumor Russ mentioned for sure. I know a family who are vegan and they are very unhealthy.Heart problems,eye sight problems,really bad teeth,gets sick way to often,sun stroke,ect.They eat no protein unless tofu has some.One good thing i guess,they are all really skinny like Olive oil but thats most likely not good for a running back in the N.F.L.
Question 14: I've been a reader since...
Posted by Troy Tretola | Aug. 08 at 09:35 AM
Guys, he is a professional athlete and now he is a vegan professional athlete. There are many out there that perform in a wide variety of sports, not too mention Iron Men competitions. The bodies need for protein is not as great as most American believe or most Protein Supplement companies will lead you to believe..Foster will be just fine, maybe even better by removing animal products from his diet. As a student receiving his Bachelors in Nutrition, we have studied vegan athletes extensively and see no drop off in performance if proper nutrition is achieved.
Question 14: I've been a reader since...
Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | Aug. 08 at 12:34 PM
Troy, Thanks for the info.I know nothing about vegan except what i;ve heard.They eat nothing that once had eyes and or mouths beaks ect.No meat but also no dairy,which includes ice cream cheese,milk butter.No seafood which includes all shellfish.I tried to put myself in that situation and cant think of how i would survive let aloan compete in a sport.
Question 14: I've been a reader since...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 08 at 12:44 PM
I think it is safe to say the Texans will make sure their franchise back gets whatever nutrititon he needs from alternate foods that his diet denies him. As an aside, Foster is one of the few players I would go all out to handcuff with his backup, Tate, regardless. No one else has such a clear and talented backup except perhaps in Carolina.