Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 28 at 11:42 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
After receiving your latest FFI update, I was left scratching my head. I disagree with so many of your rankings that I don't even know where to begin. Why so high on Joey Galloway? I mean really....19? Why? He has absolutely zero upside. You can call him a "safe" pick if you want to, but I think it's a much safer bet that a Santonio Holmes or a Reggie Brown will breakout this year than a 36 year old Galloway will continue to be productive in what looks to be a pretty dysfunctional offense.
ANDREW CONLON [CATONSVILLE, MD]
A:
Galloway is 35. And to me, he looks like he can still play. The speed is still there. And I think Jeff Garcia will help him. Garcia will keep plays alive with his scrambling. Last weekend against Miami, Garcia scrambled out of trouble, Galloway adjusted his route, and they hooked up for a touchdown pass. There's also the Jon Gruden factor; Gruden tends to run his passing game through his flanker. And in this offense, Galloway is definitely that featured guy. We are talking about the player who's caught a league-high 55 percent of his team's TD passes over the last two years, aren't we? Age isn't ideal, of course, but plenty of older receivers have been productive in this league. Cris Carter, Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Drew Hill, Rod Smith and Irving Fryar all had seasons with 80-plus catches after hitting the 35-year-old mark. Coincidentally, three of those guys (Rice, Brown, Fryar) did it in offenses run by Gruden. You can take Brown or Holmes; I'd rather have Galloway.
Question 2:
I've been subscribing for years and think you do a great job. I love that you seem to take more risks than most of the standard predictions. I will say though, I think you might be far underestimating "All Day" Adrian Peterson this year. I see a Minnesota team with a great line, weak rushing defense schedule, a starter better suited to be a third down passing back, and a team that will have to run due to a woeful QB situation. I see him with way more upside than guys like T.Jones, R.Johnson, W.Parker, C.Benson, etc. I see Peterson going for 1500 total yds and 12-14 TD's. He's just that talented.
THOMAS BALLARD [CANTON, GA]
A:
Maybe. The guy looks like he could be very good. And history has shown us that those dynamic, superstar running backs can be awesome right away. But I will say that outside of that one 43-yard run against the Jets, Peterson in the preseason has only impressed me. He hasn't knocked my socks off. Outside of that one run, he's carried 28 times for 101 yards -- 3.6 yards per attempt. I don't have the time to hunt down the exact numbers, but as I recall, Blair Thomas way back when was in the Peterson position. He was the No. 2 pick of the draft (by the Jets in 1990) and expected to cut the league up. I believe that Thomas scored a 40- or 50-yard touchdown in an exhibition game at Tampa Bay. Everyone took that as the validation that Thomas was headed to the Pro Bowl. And, of course, things didn't turn out so well for him. I'm not saying Peterson is going to be another Thomas. I'll concede that he could be very, very good. But he's going to share time with Chester Taylor. No way would I selecting him before the likes of Rudi Johnson, Willie Parker or Cedric Benson. I wouldn't even consider it.
Question 3:
You have no respect for Tatum Bell. You have been pretty high on Jon Kitna most of the preaseason, because of Mike Martz. Well his offense has been pretty good to RBs as well. Obviously, Marshall Faulk comes to mind. And some lesser known backups who filled in for Faulk, did pretty well. Your thoughts, please.
Bryan Morris [PINE CITY, NY]
A:
Bell dropped in the last rankings because he left the Colts game with what appeared to be an ankle injury. But he's fine. It was just a bruised shin, and he practiced Tuesday. He'll be back up this week to the same area he was at a week ago. But I have only nominal interest in Bell. He is not, as one might say, "The key to your draft". Somewhere along the line, Mike Martz forgot about the running game. The Lions last year ranked last in rushing, finishing with 68 fewer rushing attempts than any other team. They ran the ball, in fact, on a record-low 31.6 percent of their offensive plays. In my opinion, Martz needs to have a strong head coach above him to stop him from getting too crazy. He used to have that way back when in St. Louis, with Dick Vermeil. He does not have it now.
Question 4:
Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch. Which one do you take in a keeper league?
Alan Achkar [WILDWOOD, MO]
A:
Lynch is in a better situation, but I'd definitely take Peterson. He (Peterson) looks like he could be a special player.
Question 5:
I have the 4th pick in a 12 team PPR league. Do you think taking Bush at No. 4 is a bit of a reach? Should I stick to taking someone like Addai or Gore?
Roberto Miranda [Santa Cruz, CA]
A:
I like all three of those guys in that spot. Ideally, you'd like to trade down a few spots. I've got Bush slightly higher because of the PPR format, which richly rewards receptions. It approximately translates into "receiving production counts double". And with Bush, you've got a player who'll probably catch 80-plus balls.
Question 6:
Considering Leftwich's strengths have always been accuracy and toughness, this preseason he doesn't appear to have any more of those attributes than Garrard. And Garrard at least has decent mobility. How long do you see Leftwich holding on to this job if his accuracy remains Eli Manning-like?
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
When did accuracy and toughness become Leftwich's strengths? He's a 59 percent career passer, and he gets hurt every year. He's got poor mobility and maybe the longest wind-up of any quarterback in the league. And he doesn't get along with Jack Del Rio. No way does Leftwich make it through this season. In regards to Garrard, I think he's got fantastic mobility -- he's like a young Steve McNair -- but he can't throw worth beans or read defenses.
Question 7:
I'd appreciate if you could give me your insights as to how to figure out where the $1 players will start for my league's auction. 10 team league. 15 roster spots. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 4WR, 1K, 1 D/S. Pretty normal ydg & TD, but .25 for each carry & completion, and .5 per reception.
Andy Jury [MESA, AZ]
A:
When I'm putting together an auction-based draft board, I usually project that between a third and a half of teams will spend more than $1 for their backup quarterback, and about half of the teams will spend more than $1 on their best backup tailback. At kicker and defense, I usually assume that only 2-4 will go for above the minimum. And at tight end, I usually expect there will be 1 or 2 starters that go for the $1 minimum (that is, you might get the No. 8-9-10 tight end in your league for a $1 bid). At wide receiver, I typically project that about a third of the teams will spend more than $1 for their best backup at that position. In your league, I see a few receivers around the 40 range that I believe will go for the $1 minimum.
Question 8:
In your last email update you listed your top rookie wideouts, will you also list your quarterbacks and running backs for a 12-team keeper league. Thanks, my draft is Wednesday night.
DAMON DUHON [BATON ROUGE, LA]
A:
Running backs, I'd be looking at Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Jackson, Brian Leonard, Chris Henry and the field (in that order). At quarterback, I'd go with Brady Quinn, JaMarcus Russell, Drew Stanton, John Beck, Kevin Kolb and the field.
Question 9:
Every year there seems to be a RB that comes from nowhere to make a decent fantasy impact. Here's what I mean. Two years ago I drafted L.Johnson strictly on a hunch that Priest Holmes wouldn’t finish the season. Last year I had a similar hunch with LT and selected M.Turner but it didn't quite pan out as well as I hoped. My instincts are telling me that L. Betts could potentially be the impact player with Portis on the limp. What are your thoughts on selecting L.Betts and his impact if Portis goes down?
JOHN FALVO [Bolton, Ont.]
A:
Ladell Betts has proven he can get the job done. He started eight games last year, and in those games averaged 137 yards per game -- 104 rushing and 34 receiving. He tied a team record with five straight 100-yard rushing games. He should be very good if Portis misses any games.
Question 10:
So after 3 full preseason weeks, which defenses look to be playing the best?
MICHAEL ROPER [GLEN ALLEN, VA]
A:
To me, the Patriots look good. And Washington's first team has been very good against the run in each of their exhibitions. Washington was a huge disappointment last year, but I feel that unit will bounce back.
Question 11:
When drafting players isn't the real stat to pay attention to the point difference between players at the same position? Our league drafts 2 QB's, 3 RB's, 3 WR's, 2 TE's, 2 K's and 2 DEF. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 DEF. Here are the point differences of last years positions:
QB #1 to #12: 130 pts
RB #2 to #13: 148 pts (throw Tomlinson's stats out)
WR #1 to 12: 76 pts
TE #1 to 12: 76 pts
K #1 to 12: 46 pts
DEF #1 to 12: 146 pts
QB #12 to 24: 74 pts
RB #12 to 24: 14 pts
WR #12 to 24: 40 pts
TE #12 to 24: 87 pts
K #12 to 24: 15 pts
DEF #12 to 24: 25 pts
Based on these numbers, would it be safe to assume that picking a QB, RB or two and DEF in the first few rounds is imperative? (provided you know which defense will actually be good)
Johnny Bazzano [SANTA ROSA, CA]
A:
Sounds good. The important thing to remember, however, is that just because you don't select a player early, that doesn't guarantee that you'll wind up with the No. 12 (or whatever) player at that position.
For that reason, I like to call the expected production of the best "minimum value" player (the player I can obtain relatively cheaply -- whether it be by a $1 bid in an auction or a later-round pick in an draft) as the starting-point player.
Question 12:
How would your team defense rankings change if yards and points allowed are thrown in?
Adam Carr [Cuyahoga Falls, OH]
A:
Projected points and yards allowed are part of every update we send out. You can access them in the "stat projections" file that can downloaded at the website. Comes in an Excel format. In terms of points, we've got the top 10 teams being the Bears, Ravens, Broncos, Patriots, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers and Raiders. In yards, our top 10 would be: Bears, Ravens, Cowboys, Chargers, Broncos, Jaguars, Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, Vikings.
Question 13:
Hello I am doing a unique type of draft this season, one where you pick NFL teams and then set a lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE) , 1 K, and 1 DEFENSE from the NFL teams we pick, no add/drop. We would draft 3 or 4 teams a piece. The scoring system is Points-per reception general CBS sportsline scoring for bonuses for length of touchdown length, 300-yard bonuses for QB and 100-yard bonuses for RB, WR, and TE. Can you help me out by listing say your top 16-20 teams to pick for this format?
Johnny Rocket [Hartsville, TN]
A:
According to our stat projections, teams that will put up the best numbers (based on a combination of yards and TDs) are (in order):
Saints, Chargers, Colts, Patriots, Rams, Cowboys, Eagles, Bengals, Broncos, Seahawks, Bears, Jaguars. I'd tend to focus on those teams.
Question 14:
I'm in a 12-player auction league, where you spend $200 on 18 players (start 10). The commish wants a keeper league, with teams keeping 0-3 players for a 10% price increase the next year (round up). Also, an undrafted waiver pickup would then have a $10 price for keeper purposes. But the commish didn't say how long you could keep a guy. And I think these rules could let someone get too lucky, especially with a good waiver pickup. Any suggestions for making a keeper league like this more fair, while still rewarding good/lucky bidding?
Todd Weigel [WAUWATOSA, WI]
A:
The 10 percent rule isn't going to work. If, for example, you happened to latch onto Jerry Rice back in 1985 for $5. His salary would climb to $6, $7, $8, $9, $10, $11 ... well, you get the idea ... it doesn't climb fast enough. I suggest you go with some kind of system requiring players to get tossed back into the pot every three years. Maybe at the end of three years, the player becomes a "restricted" free agent, with his existing team able to retain him by paying 90 percent of the highest offer of any other team. Something like that.
Question 15:
Is there any chance you see that the Chargers place the franchise tag on Michael Turner next offseason to prevent him from moving on?
Darren Ritsick [ATLANTA, GA]
A:
It's possible. But if they did so, it most likely would be to help them get something in return in a trade. Unless Tomlinson gets hurt, Turner will be at a new address next year.
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Question 1: After receiving your latest FFI...
Posted by MIKE NAPPI | Aug. 29 at 01:53 PM
I don't like basing it on performance. That is not how the pros do it. Look at Larry Johnson. He had great years while being underpaid. That is great for KC. If I draft Peterson for $20, and he goes nuts, why should I have to pay him more? I understand it goes the other way but I don't like it.
Question 1: After receiving your latest FFI...
Posted by Ed Klein | Sep. 06 at 08:39 PM
I can only start 2 of the following 3 - in a yardage/td combined league with a 1 pt per 25 for rb's and wr's who would you start? L. Evans vs tough Den secondary, C. Benson against tough Chargers Def or Cadillac Williams vs Seattle? Thanks, Ed
Question 14: I'm in a 12-player auction...
Posted by MIKE POWERS | Aug. 28 at 01:10 PM
We have a similar auction league, with 3 keepers for 10% salary increase, with a 3-year maximum (in other words, a player can be kept twice in addition to his initial year acquired through draft or waivers). It's worked very well for us and adds another layer of strategy.
Question 14: I'm in a 12-player auction...
Posted by MIKE NAPPI | Aug. 29 at 06:49 AM
We do they same sort of, after you draft a player he goes up 10%, 20%, and 30% from the prior year, rounding up. Then he gets thrown back.
Question 14: I'm in a 12-player auction...
Posted by KENT KNUTSON | Aug. 29 at 08:03 AM
I would recommend not putting a time limit on keeping players, but raising the value $10 each year instead of 10%. That will help limit top players from being kept for too many years and still allow for low-cost sleepers to be valuable for a few years.
Question 14: I'm in a 12-player auction...
Posted by Ron Uetz | Aug. 29 at 08:25 AM
In our 16-team league, we base franchise costs on previous season's production, rather than previous auction value. So if a player scores 100 points in our system in 2006, he will cost 20 auction dollars to keep in 2007. It makes for some interesting strategies... if a stud goes down early, do you drop him, or take up a roster space to keep him cheap the following year? (We've had teams keeping Ricky Williams around for the last two or three years because he was a dollar. Of course that gamble didn't pay off.) There is no limit on the number of keepers or how long you can keep them, but you can't use more than 75 of your 200 dollars for keepers(unless 1 player is more than 75, then you can keep that 1 if you want). So a team this year couldn't keep Westbrook and Gore. He had to make a choice. The other teams know they will never see Tomlinson, but that's okay. It just makes you look for the next great player to spend his career on your team.
Question 14: I'm in a 12-player auction...
Posted by Garret Meal | Aug. 30 at 10:09 AM
We have a similar system with a 10% increase, however we set a minimum retention value based on average position cost at previous auction plus 10%. We also limit to 3 years and have a maximum retention of 50% of your payroll.