Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 14 at 03:45 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
What am I missing? Ben Tate is ranked 36 in running backs but based on the total points, he should be higner?. There are several like that and I am sure that I am just missing something.
Brian Dunne [AURORA, IL]
A:
Tate is a backup running back. He’s not going to do much as long as Foster stays healthy. Once Foster got healthy last year, Tate went over 100 rushing yards in two of his 13 games as a backup. But in the other 11 games, he averaged only 33 yards and scored only one touchdown. There are 31 other teams in the league – teams that have starting running backs. I would say 36th sounds about right for Tate.
Question 2:
Thanks for the knowledge over the years. I'm one of your original subscribers and have never finished out of the top 3. A question for you on defenses. My league awards 2 points for takeaways, 1 for sacks, 6 for touchdowns, 2 for safeties and a grid for points allowed – 10 for shutout, 7 for under 7, 4 for under 14, 1 for under 21, -1 for over 27 and –4 for for over 35. Do any of your current products factor in points allowed? I'm concerned that if I don't take points allowed into account, I could wind up overvaluing a defense like New England.
Jeffrey Wahl [Massillon, OH]
A:
We’re aware plenty of people use this kind of scoring system. In our product (the main PDF product), there are three different kinds of defensive scoring. There’s the TD-only system, there’s the standard defense (with points for sacks and takeaways) and there’s a kind with points-allowed bonuses, which is similar to yours. To see those rankings, look at the PPR format. If you use the “custom cheat sheet” feature, you separate out kick return TDs (if you’re one of the guys who treats those separately). There’s also an Excel file where you can look at our exact forecast for each defense, which includes points allowed, passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed and all the other stuff. We now have a FFPC cheat sheet as part of our weekly product. They award 12 points for shutouts, 8 for under 7 and 5 for under 11. That’s similar to what you’re doing. They don’t have any points over negative points for scores above 10, but they’re awarding more points for those great games. I was looking at defensive scores for that system earlier today (to make sure our rankings were in line). In the last 10 years (using that system) only seven defenses have averaged 3 extra fantasy points per week. 16 others have finished between 2.5 and 2.9 extra fantasy points per game. So to me, the absolutely tops you would ever put a great defense down (maybe San Francisco this year) would be 3 points per game. The 49ers finished at 2.7 last year. And all but 10 of the defenses last year scored at least a half point per game. Half of the defenses got at least 13 points (or about 1 point per game). The spread in that system (which is similar to yours) therefore is a little more than a point per week. The worst defense you might get should finish near a point per week. Probably chart the best D for about 2.5 points per game.
Question 3:
Great job on the magazine this year. We have the option of starting 2 RB with 3WR/TE, 1 RB with 4 WR/TE or 0 RB with 5 WR/TE. I have the 6th pick. Ryan Matthews was my guy there, but the injury pretty much eliminates that possibility. I noticed you mentioned in the last mailbag the option of blending the RB/WR/TE position into one. This is interesting to me because now at pick 6, there is not one guy that sticks out. I've considered Brady, Brees, McFadden, Murray, Calvin Johnson, and Chris Johnson. Do you have any suggestions as to where I should be looking? Or could you elaborate on the "postion blending?" If I combine the three positions then it's pretty much best player available all the way through the draft. I've always been very traditional and walked out of the first two rounds with two RBs. In the words of Bob Dylan though "the times they are a-changing." What do you suggest?
Joey Winn [VIRGINIA BEACH, VA]
A:
When you add a flex player, I start losing interest in trying to target a specific position. When you add two flex players (like in your league), then it’s time to just forget about any notion of trying to draft running backs with your first two picks. That old road is rapidly aging, as Dylan might say. I suggest you look only at expected overall points for the RB-WR-TE positions. Durability will work in favor of WR and TE – they’re far more likely to start 16 games than the running backs.
Question 4:
With the ffpc and many other leagues going with the 1.5 per reception is there a way to imput it into my scoring on here.
daniel olsen [SAVANNAH, GA]
A:
The FFPC is one of the scoring systems we support. It’s page 7 in your pdf product (the one that comes out on Thursday and Monday), and it should soon be available to see via custom rankings as well. We’re doing some overhaul work on the custom rankings area of the website. FFPC should soon be available as a one-click option for you to look at.
Question 5:
I love the offensive line report in the magazine and I use those rankings on draft day when I'm breaking down the tiers for each position. So I was wondering if there's an updated ranking or can you tell me if there have been some surprises or significant injuries that would change the rankings from the magazine? Thanks
Jason Howes [STEWARTVILLE, MN]
A:
I update that from time to time. Most recently, I put up the new offensive line rankings earlier today. The team rankings ran be seen at the main page of the website. The Bengals were the biggest faller (with Travelle Wharton now out for the year). If you want to see the new projected starters and individual player grades, they are available at our Facebook page.
Question 6:
I'm curious as to how things like strength of schedule, expected won-loss record, etc. factor into your ratings. The team that raises this issue in my mind is Tampa Bay. You apparently have TB in the bottom 10 of defenses; you expect them to finish approximately 5-11, according to the SOS figures. However, they play teams that project to give up lots of yards and TDs passing. If you think they'll be behind in most games, wouldn't you expect more passing, and possibly more value out of Freeman, Jackson and Williams? (Obviously, I do.).
CRAIG SMITH [OZARK, MO]
A:
No. I think they’d really like to emphasize the run. That’s what Greg Schiano wants to do. Physical, blue collar, pound-it-out stuff. I don’t envision Freeman averaging 230 passing yards per game. Strength of schedule is one of the factors I consider in the rankings, but I don't envision it helping the Bucs.
Question 7:
Thanks for your always awesome support. I just tried to enter some numbers for a 14-team non-ppr league. 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex, 1 D, 1 K. I think my numbers may be a little off because I'm ending with 5 QBs in the top 12. Can you give me some guidance setting up my auction values- total and above-league-minimum numbers?
MIKE RADAKER [CLEARFIELD, PA]
A:
Please try 20 QBs, 43 RB, 45 WR, 15 TE, 3 PK and 5 defenses. See what that looks like.
Question 8:
We award 1 point for every 40 return yrds. Which WR/RBs who are "draftable" would you recommend? BTW, your tip on Antonio Brown last year worked well,
PATRICK MAHONEY [CHESAPEAK BCH, MD]
A:
Darren Sproles and Randall Cobb for sure. I think Brown’s days as a returner are over. I believe the Steelers will plug Emmaneul Sanders into that role. He might return both kickoffs and punts. As much as he’ll play as a third receiver, that makes him a viable option. Devin Hester is the same kind of prospect; maybe his receiving numbers won’t be great, but he should/could be a receiver and a returner. I would also have an eye on Brandon Tate of the Bengals and Travis Benjamin of Cleveland. Possible receiver/returner. Check in with me in a week or two and I will have a better list.
Question 9:
Could you provide a list for each teams offense projected total points and total yards?
Jason Guzik [HILTON, NY]
A:
Will do. I’ll try to get that up on the home page either later today or early tomorrow.
Question 10:
How can I edit my scoring profile to generate the best possible list. We start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1Flex, 1TE, 1K and 3 individual defenders. 12 teams and 20 roster spots. RBs and QBs have historically been taken early.
MARK CLURE [MOUNT SHASTA, CA]
A:
We don’t have the individual defensive players tied in with the offensive guys, so I will leave them out of it. I would assume each team would select five IDP, so I would assume each of the 12 teams would select 15 offensive players. Go to “Custom Cheat Sheet”. Click on the grab tab “Scoring Profiles”. Create a new scoring profile. Put in your scoring system. There’s a button where it asks, “are you in an auction league?”. Click yes. There will be a series of questions that will take about 2 minutes to answer. Tell the computer you want to see the rankings with about 16 quarterbacks “worth more than the $1 minimum”, along with 36 running backs, 40 wide receivers, 13 tight ends and 3 kickers. Go with those parameters, and that should give you a very solid overall list. Then you can plug in the defensive guys at the end, based on where you think they should go.
Question 11:
Another great magazine you guys put out this year. Usually, my keeper decision is pretty simple. Not this year (I think). I am in a PPR league, and am trying to choose between Philip Rivers, Victor Cruz, or DeMarco Murray. Rivers seems to be the safe bet, but it's a slim RB group this year. Also, I will have the 6th pick in my 12-team league. Thanks in advance for any thoughts you have here.
PATRICK KESSLER [MUENCHEN, AE]
A:
I’d go with Cruz. Definitely. It’s a PPR format, so you need to collect players who’ll catch 90-plus passes. Those guys are gold in that format. Cruz will be a lot more valuable than either Rivers or Murray.
Question 12:
I am in a two keeper league. I am keeping Ray Rice. I have the option of keeping only Rice and then drafting in round two, where I could pick up Roddy White or some other top notch reciever. My other possible keeper is Marshawn Lynch. Would you keep him or go for a WR? This is a PPR league.
KARL GABBARD [LITCHFIELD PK, AZ]
A:
In a PPR format, I think Roddy White is more valuable. He’ll catch 90-plus balls, and that makes him solid gold in that kind of system.
Question 13:
Great product, been with fantasy index for quite a few years now. I am in a 10-tearm PPR dynasty league. I am keeping three WR/TE. I have A. Johnson, R. White, J. Maclin, and J. Graham as potential keepers. I have thoughts of keeping Johnson, White, and Graham. I'm almost certain of keeping Graham- his potential hasn't been realized as of yet. So, between the other three WRs, I really hate letting Maclin slide. I think this year, Maclin may be outperformed by White and Johnson, but for how many more years? White is going to play second fiddle to J. Jones soon and A. Johnson is getting old – can he really stay healthy for full sixteen games? For the long-term value, do you view Maclin as a better keeper than White or Johnson or maybe you have entirely different thoughts.
MIKE RADAKER [CLEARFIELD, PA]
A:
Graham is a lock. I will go with Johnson and White over Maclin. Both of those guys might catch 100 passes, and that’s what you really need in a PPR format. With Maclin, you’re dealing with a guy who’s also had some injury/durability problems, and he’s chained to Michael Vick, who also could get hurt and isn’t a great passer. Maclin won’t catch 90 balls. You’re apparently not in a true dynasty league (you’re not keeping everyone) so I wouldn’t worry too much about 2013. Who knows what other receivers might be on your roster in December? Maybe you’ll end up protecting Jon Baldwin, Kendall Wright or Emmanuel Sanders next summer.
Question 14:
I was wondering if your cheat sheet rankings (bought an update for 8-13) are based on your projections?
Li Sing Khaw [BEMIDJI, MN]
A:
Yes. I do projections for every player. We adjust those based on developments and what we’re seeing in the preseason games. Guys will move up a little (or a lot) when something happens that changes our mind on a player or a team. Those projections are then used to generate the various player lists.
Question 15:
I'm in a 10-team 4 player keeper league I'm keeping Brady,Nicks,Fitz and Charles and I have the first pick in the draft between Richardson and D Martin who should I pick?
Michael Oliva [GLENOLDEN, PA]
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Question 13: Great product, been with fantasy...
Posted by RICHARD LEVINE | Aug. 15 at 10:20 PM
10 team PPR league taking Foster with the #1 pick. I'm deciding on who to target coming back in the second round. If you could get 2 of these players, who would you get: Jimmy Graham, Matthew Stafford, Julio Jones, Greg Jennings, or AJ Green? Thanks.
Question 14: I was wondering if your...
Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | Aug. 16 at 08:47 AM
Ian I am trying to keep a eye on the running back situation in Pittsberg and just read that Redman went down with the dreaded grion injury.He is also in the dog house with the coaches staff for talking to the media about it.He tried to practice yesterday but went to all fours in paim.Do you think Jonathon Dwyer could be a sleeper if Redmand injury lingers?I think he is next on the debth chart? Thanks