Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 17 at 11:56 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I thought it might be fun to have people tell their first ever draft pick with year, if they remember. Mine was Neal Anderson, Chi RB in 1991. How about it? Also do you remember yours?
Mike Craig [KOKOMO, IN]
A:
Eight-team league in 1986. Touchdown-only format (with TDs worth 6 and TD passes worth 4). First four picks were all running backs – Eric Dickerson, Marcus Allen, Roger Craig and Walter Payton. With the 1985 stats in front of me, I selected Dan Marino, who had thrown a league-high 30 TDs the previous season. Then I noticed that San Diego, as a team, had thrown 37 TDs – 6 more than Miami. “Wait, can I change that to Dan Fouts?”. Sure the guys, said. Marino threw 44 TDs that year. Had I stuck with him, I would have won that league walking away. I made some nice picks later, picking up George Rogers and Jerry Rice, who were the top scorers at their positions. In hindsight, I don’t understand why Joe Morris wasn’t a first-round pick in this league. He led the NFL with 21 TDs in 1985, but he lasted until the 9th pick.
Question 2:
If you can please answer this question by tomorrow noon: The yardage +td has the Detroit Def ranked 7th and Buffalo 9th but the ppr rankings has detroit 16th and buffalo 12th. I cant figure out why there would be any difference since there are no ppr points awarded a defense.
HENRY GORDON [MORRIS PLAINS, NJ]
A:
The PPR defense rankings are slightly different. Nothing to do with receptions, of course. But those rankings give the defenses bonuses for shutting down opposing teams. Hold an opponent under 7 points and that's 8 points. Hold an opponent to 8-13 points, and that's 5 points. When you include those bonuses, Buffalo moves ahead of Detroit. The Bills have sunk some money into their defense, and they've also got a favorable schedule (you saw the chart I posted yesterday, right?).
Question 3:
Deciding between Stevan Ridley and Stephen Jackson in a keeper league with an unusual scoring system. The league is essentially TD-only, but the team with the most aggregate rushing yards gets a 5-point bonus each week. Another 5-point bonus is given for most aggregate receiving yards. Do those bonuses push Jackson ahead of Ridley?
DAVID GARRICK [Coronado, CA]
A:
I would go with Ridley. I’d play for the touchdowns, and should blow away Jackson in that category. In the past five years, the Patriots have scored almost three times as many rushing touchdowns as the Rams – a 94-33 edge in those 80 games. The 94 is a league-high. The 33 is 8 fewer than any other team. Now, the Rams may be on the upswing some this year. I’m not saying they’ll be down around 5-6 TD runs again this year. But the Patriots have a good chance to score twice as many rushing touchdowns.
Question 4:
In a typical $200 salary auction league, how do you organize your salary? Do you budget "x" amount per position group, or do you break it down by roster spot (RB #1, Wr #2, etc)?
Kent Bailey [PUYALLUP, WA]
A:
I would advise you to separate out the 90-100 players that you actually care about. The guys you think are worth more than the $1.00 minimum. Then, the best $1.00 guy at each position. That's your "baseline" guy. Whatever his production is, subtract it from all of the other players at his position. Then, look at the "bang for your buck" production that's left over. That's what you're dividiing up. That's what's for sale. So you can create a "cost per point" for each player. Don't worry about assigning a percentage share to any one position. To make this easier, use the "custom scoring feature" at the website. It will do most of the heavy lifting.
Question 5:
I'm in a 12-team standard league. No flex, and 6pts ofr all TDs. I'm picking 6th and am predicting I will have Brady. Is taking Julio Jones at 19 too early? I'm anticipating guys like f.jackson, grahm or gronk, bradshaw all there. I just think this kid is a freak and have him ahead of all wr's aside from megatron. Am I crazy to pull that trigger there?
Bill Petilli [LARCHMONT, NY]
A:
I don’t think it’s crazy at all. That’s a good spot for Jones, in my opinion.
Question 6:
Hi Ian. In the magazine you have Jacob Tamme listed as the #5 tight end in the PPR rankings. In your latest update he is way down to #11. Why the change?
Johnny Bazzano [SANTA ROSA, CA]
A:
He’s still basically the same guy. He could be very good. But watching the first preseason game (and I’ll know more after Saturday), I fear he might be a part-time player. On every down, the Broncos will use Manning, a running back, Decker, Thomas and the five offensive linemen. That leaves two spots. Joel Dreessen will be part of that offense. He’s a much better blocker than Tamme. They also will use Brandon Stokley as a slot guy. So is Tamme out there pretty much all the time? Or is he kind of sharing time with Stokley? He should be fine, but there’s a little uncertainty there. (For me, anyway.)
Question 7:
I'm in a 12-team league (ppr and 6 pts for all TD). We can keep 1 player and lose our 1st rounder. I pick 6th. Rice and McCoy will both be available--don't ask. (How I don't don't win this league every year I have no idea.) Anyway picking 6th I have an opportunity to trade up to 2nd but would have to swap picks in the next 4 rounds that benefits him. I think it is worth it considering the top option I may have at 6 is forte or possibly mjd. Worth it?
Troy Smith [HAMMOND, LA]
A:
I wouldn’t want to select Forte or Jones-Drew at No. 6. I would be thinking about that trade up. Normally, the winner in those kind of deals is the guy who trades down, but this could be an exception.
Question 8:
Since you are very high on Trent Richardson this year ( #4 RB in the magazine), has your position changed since his procedure was done and he will miss almost the entire preseason?
George Sherman [MILLVILLE, NJ]
A:
Yes. He underwent knee surgery and might not be ready an opening day. He also seems to be playing on a lesser team. It doesn’t look like the Browns will get over the hump and be competitive this year. They’re in a division where they’re clearly behind the other three teams. So I have him around 10th among running backs right now.
Question 9:
I notice there is no overall top 50 when you customize scoring....14 team keeper league with 10 points for all TD's, including passing (20 points over 40 yards). I have the 14th pick. You think its worth drafting a QB with 14 or 15? Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Cam will be gone. Should I use 14 or 15 on a second tier QB or roll the dice and wait until 28 picks later and hope one is there?
Steve Tortora [WALLINGFORD, CT]
A:
There should be an overall list at the bottom of the screen. The position-by-position stuff is up top. Scroll to the bottom, and you’ll see the overall list. To fine-tune the overall list, use the auction value preferences, which are in your scoring profile. If you don’t touch them, they’re set up for a league with 12 teams. Basically looking at 15 QBs, 36 RB, 40 WR, 13 TE, 3 K and 5 Defenses as your key guys. You’ll want to adjust those if that doesn’t fit your league.
Question 10:
I have the same question as a few have already asked, in determining how many guys at each position will be drafted and how many above the minimum bid. I'm in a 10 team snake draft, we start 1QB, 2RB's, 4WR/TE, 1Def, 1K and 16 round draft. If it makes a difference, it's 6 points for all touchdowns. Your help and advice is greatly appreciated, and could you elaborate a bit on how you determine how many guys at each position will be drafted and how many will go above minimum bid.
Paul Davis [MINERAL CITY, OH]
A:
I understand those questions are a little technical. They’re a little intimidating. We are discussing ways to simplify and streamline the process. Maybe word them in a different way. What we’re trying to do is to get you to separate the 80-100 guys that you actually care about. You’re in a 10-team league, for example, so those quarterbacks down around 20 – Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler – are guys you don’t care about. They would go for $1.00 in an auction. In typical leagues, you fill your roster by selecting starters and a backup at each spot. So in your league, 20 QB, 40 RB, 80 WR/TE, 20 K and 20 D/ST. That’s the initial draft. Then you figure that you could actually work the waiver wire at kicker and defense a little, so let’s take about four off of those – 16 K and 16 D/ST. We’ll move QBs up to 24. And some guys will want to go after handcuff running backs. So let’s move RBs up to 54 and slide WR/TE down to 70. Those are the kind of numbers you’re looking at. Of those 160 guys, who are the ones you actually care about? Who are the guys who’ll be selected in the first 10 rounds? I would guess about 14 QBs, 30 RB, 45 WR/TE, 3 PK and 4 D/ST.
Question 11:
Can you put together a 2 QB ppr top 50 with 2 flexes please...It's my first time doing a 2qb league with ppr and I am curious what your order would look like. I have the 4th pick in an 8 man league
Ian Nelson [BOCA RATON, FL]
A:
Use the custom rankings feature. For best results, click off that you want to see “auction value” (even if you’re drafting rather than using a salary cap). If you’re in a 12-team league, tell it you want to see about 28 QBs go for more than the league minimum (since you’re starting two, rather than one). If a 10-team league, then maybe 24 QBs. I’m not sure how many guys you’re starting at each position. If starting 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE and 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE), then probably 36 RB, 42 WR, 14 TE and 3 PKs. Numbers will be lower if you’ve got only 8 or 10 teams.
Question 12:
Do I use the customized rankings or the customized auction values when determining player rankings on my board for a non-auction format?
David Barenborg [MERCER ISLAND, WA]
A:
For best results, use the auction tools. They allow you to most accurate mesh your league rules and relative scarcity to our player projections.
Question 13:
Great job with the magazine. I'm in a 10 team non-ppr auction draft: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 RB/WR, 1D, 1K. Trying to figure out how to use the custom cheat cheet. I noticed that small changes in the number of players above league minimum result in big changes in value. Please help.
Bruce Vandalay [JAMAICA PLAIN, MA]
A:
In ballpark terms, I would want to look at what the values look like when there are 14 QBs, 36 RB, 38 WR, 12 TE and 3 PK. That’s about where I would see the values.
Question 14:
Currently picking 3rd overall in a PPR Keeper League, slightly favoring QBs, my only keeper is a late second round pick for LeSean McCoy. At #3, is the safer/better pick Aaron Rodgers or Calvin Johnson?
Anthony Cillis [LAGRANGEVILLE, NY]
Question 15:
10 team PPR league taking Foster with the #1 pick. I'm deciding on who to target coming back in the second round. If you could get 2 of these players, who would you get: Jimmy Graham, Matthew Stafford, Julio Jones, Greg Jennings, or AJ Green? Thanks.
RICHARD LEVINE [WOODCLIFF LK, NJ]
A:
I've got Julio Jones highest on my board. Green and Graham also would in the mix.
Question 16:
Forgive me for asking a "should I do this trade" question, but it's a big trade and I NEED another opinion. We started a first year 16 team dynasty league this year. QB's score (.225 pts/yd with a 15 pt bonus @ 300yds plus 5 pts/td, -10 pts. per int, -.333pts per att. and .5 pts per completion). Wr's score (.375pts/yd + 15pt bonus/125yds, .75pts per completion, 7pts/td.) So I went into this draft planning on drafting luck but got too smart for my own good and missed out. I ended up with Roethlisberger/Bradford/Locker. My notable wr's are Megatron/Aj Green/A. Brown. My brother, whom I will never forgive, took Luck in the 5th round and now says he'll trade him to me for megatron. I can keep 5 players from year to year, no more than 2 at a position so I have to move a wr before next year anyways. So, should I swallow my pride and do the trade?
Cole Houchens [Carrollton, TX]
A:
Too much. You might be able to win right now with Megatron in his prime and all dialed in. If you deal for Luck, then you’re more of a 2013 or 2014 and beyond team. Maybe you could counter with Antonio Brown and Locker plus his choice of Bradford or Roethlisberger?
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Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by David Kennedy | Aug. 17 at 12:46 PM
Good luck getting Julio that late. Hes been going in the first round of all the latest drafts I have seen or done. Early second round at the latest. Graham shouldnt be there either if its a PPR league.
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by Gregory Cardey | Aug. 17 at 01:41 PM
Warren Moon. 1991. 2nd pick of the draft. You would think I would have learned my lesson right away that a great season is rarely duplicated the next year, but I'm not sure that I have yet. Because Rodgers, he is sure to do it again this year, right??
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by ROBERT JACKSON | Aug. 17 at 02:34 PM
My 1st ever pick was QB John Hadl for the SD Chargers in 1970.
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by Andrew Paterson | Aug. 17 at 05:20 PM
Greg Bell, in 1989, was my first-ever pick and he helped lead me to 3rd place in a competitive FF league. BTW, to Ian and the Fantasy Index staff, don't dumb down the Fantasy Custom Ranking program too much. Anyone that's been through a couple drafts should be able to answer the Auction-specific "technical" questions without much trouble.
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by DARYL DORSEY | Aug. 18 at 04:47 AM
1989.......... I can't remember 1st pick,but my last pick was Sterling Sharpe w the last pick. It was his rookie yr & He went off!!! Wahoo!! Check same yr a fellow owner traded me K-Eddie Murray 4 Thurman Thomas!!! Lmao!! Love that & I was the Rookie. Ended up getting beat in SuperBowl, but was 1 great fun yr!!. Peace, D2
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by MARK MANCINA | Aug. 18 at 07:36 AM
1989 Don't know wich was first but my backfield was Barry Sanders, Neal Anderson, Thurman Thomas can't remember my 4th guy.
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by James COSTELLO | Aug. 18 at 11:07 AM
My first pick was Brett Favre in a league that started 2 QBs. I remember my 3rd pick too,an unknown named Kurt Warner. Needless to say I won the Super Bowl as a rookie
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by BRIAN LASKIEWICZ | Aug. 18 at 01:19 PM
My first ever draft pick was QB Joe Montana back in 1987, about 20 years before our league adopted the auction format.
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by James Wimmers | Aug. 18 at 07:46 PM
I joined a league that was starting it's second season and my partners had won the league the year before. We ended up getting that first overall pick and I thought man this is gonna be easy. Randall Cunningham, 1991. Whoops.
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by Ian MacEwen | Aug. 18 at 08:22 PM
Brett Favre, in 1997
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by Daryl Seaman | Aug. 19 at 05:17 PM
emmitt smith 1992
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by matthew krogol | Aug. 19 at 10:44 PM
Curtis Martin - 2000
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by Nathan Kline | Aug. 20 at 07:04 AM
Oh wow. I was such a rookie. First ever pick, with the very first pick of the draft, in an 8 man league back in 2002 was Donovan McNabb. My reasoning, well he ran too so I could hold off on a running back. lol. Worse though, it was an IDP league and my second selection was Brian Dawkins.
Question 1: I thought it might be...
Posted by JASON KUNTZ | Aug. 20 at 08:11 PM
Have no idea if it was my first pick, but have great memories of 1989 & Dalton Hilliard from NO posting 18 td's & 1,800 yards that year. Took the championship with my partner in our first year.
Question 5: I'm in a 12-team standard...
Posted by BILL BROWN | Aug. 18 at 08:48 AM
I'm in a 10 team ppr and am thinking about taking JJ in round 2 at pick 14. Am I nuts? Love the guy and not sure he'll make it to pick 27 in round 3...
Question 13: Great job with the magazine....
Posted by PAUL KUCHAR | Aug. 18 at 05:01 AM
I have loved FFI for years so I wanted to get some feedback from you on PPR. I have never understood why a catch should warrant a point by itself. Why not give aq point per run or a point per completion? Rewarding touches and not production seems like a silly way to boost the value of not very productive players, when there is already way too much talent in the league to begin with. Anyway, I have yet to hear why a catch is somehow so magical it deserves a point, even on a loss of yards....Sounds like a great rule for noobs.