Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 21 at 10:26 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Instead of pulling the draft order out of a hat, we give each team the option to select the position they want when their name is pulled. So if you were pulled first and could choose any spot (it's a snake draft), what do you think is the best place to be in a 12-team standard yardage league where passing tds are worth 4 points and all other tds are worth 6?
Brian Fulton [NASHVILLE, TN]
A:
I think there’s a big advantage to picking first. And according to my player projections, if you had 12 Ian Allans drafting against each other, you’d want to pick as soon as possible. 1 beats 2 beats 3 beats 4 and so on, right thru the 12 picks. After four rounds (again, according to my projections), team No. 1 should have 354 “player value” points, 33 ahead of team No. 2. Just slight dips from 2 thru 6 (321 down to 312). Then a 12 point drop to team 7 and an 11-point drop to team 8. It continues southward until team 12 projects to finish with 274 adjusted value points. So team 12 is only 77 percent as powerful as team No. 1 after four players.
Question 2:
I’m sure you are asked this all the time and likely have something relating to this on file. Draft position, 8 people in league, performance scoring. This is a snake draft. One through 8, 8 through one and we don’t change for the 16 picks. Curious if any numbers have been run historically where the best position might be. I have 1 and 16 and thinking I’d like to trade down.
Tom Shear [California]
A:
I used the same process as the 12-team letter. Only for this one (with there being just 8 team) I went six deep. It’s the same 48 players I had in front of me, with the same projected value points. Again, it works out that you want to draft as early as possible. There’s a big edge for No. 1 (492 to 457), then a more gradual decline for picks No. 2 through 8. But again, it’s that exact same order for all eight picks. That picks sense. When comparing any two draft positions, one is higher in all of the odd-numbered rounds, and they’re more valuable than the even-numbered rounds. Each odd-numbered round comes before an even-numbered round, and those players by definitition are more coveted. All of those players who project to be selected in the second round are all guys who were passed over in the first.
Question 3:
Who would be a top your list of under the radar guys right now? Late draft picks that will come through for owners. I personally like A Collie, V Brown, L Moore, S Vereen, M Goodson, G Olsen and A Luck.
David Kennedy [STEAMBURG, NY]
A:
I think the days of getting Luck in the late rounds are over. I think he’ll be a top-15 quarterback in most drafts now. You have worked the kiss of death on Collie, Goodson and Brown. I like the reasoning, but the bodies don’t seem to be willing. I will add: Morris, Dwyer, Jennings, Ware and Steve Smith.
Question 4:
Dirk Koetter the new Falcon offensive coordinator said saturday that he doesnt believe in wearing his running backs down in preseason. This may explain why the Falcons have called so many passing plays in the two preseason games. Are we all over reacting a bit to Matt Ryans great splits in the two halves hes played? Based on those splits i had moved him up to my 4th or 5th qb. But now I’m thinking the Falcons run just as usuall once the games are for real.
joann placencia [ALHAMBRA, CA]
A:
Interesting theory. I definitely don’t worry too much about running backs underperforming in the preseason. With the good backs – guys who are proven and know what they’re doing – I think most teams try to just protect and save them for the real games. In Koetter’s final two years in Jacksonville, for example, Maurice Jones-Drew carried 11 times for a total of 12 yards. He won the rushing title last year. I do believe Ryan will have a big year. I don’t think he belongs in the top 5, but I kind of like him better than Rivers-Romo-Roethlisberger because of the likelihood he’ll play all 16 games.
Question 5:
Do you read anything into Ridley playing with the second team verse Vereen playing in the first half?
ERIC SCOLNICK [Redmond, WA]
A:
I’m just getting to watch that game right now. I will adjust the ratings in the Thursday product. The battle there seems to be getting closer. Ridley suffered a hamstring injury, and that’s allowed Vereen to move up some. Those are definitely the big two. Ridley is the bigger, more rugged guy. Vereen is faster and catches the ball better.
Question 6:
Would you have any general guidelines for the composition of a roster of sixteen? Have not seen this fundamental question discussed anywhere, but it is obviously critical.
RAY SCHMITT [NORMAL, IL]
A:
In general, I want to draft the guys I’ll rely on at QB, WR and TE. I am less interested in backups at those positions. I’m also not usually interested in carrying backup kickers and defenses. I want to carry as many backup running backs as possible. That’s the position where the injuries occur, and nobody-type guys suddenly become franchise-type players. Rashad Jennings, Montario Hardesty, Ben Tate, Ronnie Brown, C.J. Spiller, Bilal Powell. I want guys like that. In a typical league where you start a QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K and DEF, I don’t want to carry equal numbers of backups. I would be more likely to go with 2 QBs, 5 WR, 2 TE, K, DEF and 7 RBs, if possible.
Question 7:
Ian, in the FanEx draft you took Ridley ahead of McGahee. Looks like you have McGahee ranked higher. What was your stategy here?
BILL BROWN [KATY, TX]
A:
I had only one running back at the time (Rice at 1.02). You have to start two each week, and we were getting into the middle rounds. I was thinking if I selected Ridley, I’d be able to get Shane Vereen later and sewn up that nice running attack of the Patriots. McGahee is 30, and we’ve got to make it through 16 games. But that may have been a mistake.
Question 8:
Are you sure you dont have Dez Bryant ranked 17th and Brandon Marshall ranked 23rd turned around? I have to drop one of them and i think i will keep Marshall. He won the MVP in the Pro Bowl last year. Finished 12th overall, with 1,214 yards vs. Bryant with 928 total yards and Bryant had a better QB. Marshall has a way better passer in Cutler this year and i think he will be a top ten wr.
BEN HOGEVOLL [SILETZ, OR]
A:
You’re giving Marshall credit for being named the MVP of the Pro Bowl? Are you serious? That’s like moving a guy up after he hits three home runs in a celebrity softball game. I am very comfortable with Bryant over Marshall.
Question 9:
I know you are really high on Miles Austin this year, but with the news that he will not participate in any preseason games due to his hamstring injury I was curious whether he was injury prone in college or not? He did burst onto the scene unexpectedly in '09 and I was wondering if prior injuries were maybe the reason he wasn't a high draft pick? Are you still confident he can be a top 5 WR this year?
Ed Dischino [GAINESVILLE, VA]
A:
The hamstrings are a concern. Once you injure them, they take a long time to heal. He had issues last year, and now that he’s sitting out again, you have to wonder how long he can stay healthy. He did not, however, have any hamstring issues at Monmouth. He missed a couple of games with a sprained ankle, that’s it.
Question 10:
In the 8/20 Index update you state that "Bush's ability has you cool on Forte" yet Forte moves up from 15 to 8 in RB ranking for Yardage/TDs and from 13 to 7 for PPR. Why this inconsistency?
David Barenborg [MERCER ISLAND, WA]
A:
To be honest with you, I wasn’t aware he had moved at all. His projection is almost identical. Last week his projection (per game) was for 67 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards, with a 40 percent likelihood of a TD each week. Today I’ve got him at 67 rushing and 23 receiving, with a 42 percent on TDs. I increased the overall team projection a little because I thought the Bears looked pretty good against Washington. I guess he moved up a nice chunk because of changes in other players projections. It also goes to show there isn’t much statistical difference between the backs in that tier. But it seems a little high for Forte. He’s not a guy I like a lot or plan on drafting. He’s one of those running backs I’ll be tending to ignore while stocking up on franchise-type receivers. I will re-evaluate his ranking on Thursday. My leaning is to shift a little more of the rushing touchdown load to Michael Bush, which hopefully will drop Forte back out of the top 10.
Question 11:
With our draft coming up this weekend, I'm still in a quandary as to what to think about the MJD situation in Jacksonville. At what point do you roll the dice (considering the holdout) or just let someone else select him and use a later round pick on Jennings and hope he gets the goal-line carries.
Tod Denison [BAKERSFIELD, CA]
A:
I’m worried about Jennings taking some of that role. I’m a worried about the missed work. He’s got to learn a new offense. Chris Johnson was in a similar situaiton last year and it didn’t go well.
Question 12:
For a dynasty league auction, do you recommend using the dynasty cheat sheet in the magazine for rankings and assigning $ values appropriate for the specific league, or is there a way to get custom auction values from the online ranking tool, or do you recommend some other approach?
David Brotherton [YPSILANTI, MI]
A:
I would treat that cheat sheet, which appears on page 27, as a rough draft. Tha’ts a ballpark idea of what the rankings should look like. But you have to combo that info with what you’re reading in the August updates. David Wilson, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Rueben Randle and Brian Quick, for example, are all rookie who’s decreased in value. Alfred Morris is an up-and-comer. In the magazine, we were heming and hawing whether you should take Luck or RG3. We eventually settled on Luck as No. 2 (behind Rodgers), and RG3 down at 11th. There’s more separation between those guys now – Luck is definitely the guy you would want. I have been unable to develop an automated tool to create auction prices for keeper leagues. I don’t know that it can even be done. You’d have to create stat projections for multiple years – careers – and then they’d have to somehow calibrated to account for present value. Look at something as simple as comparing Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck. Rodgers is 28, so figure he’s got 7-8 good years left. He should be very good in a lot of those years, but there’s also some injury potential there – he’s not a Manning-Brees-Brady type guy who’ll reel off five 16-game seasons in a row. With Luck, he’s not as good right now, but he’s only 22. He could have 15-plus good seasons. But a bunch of those seasons are going to happen years in the future. Something that should happen in 2022 isn’t as valuable as something we’re pretty sure will happen in 2012. How do you put a dollar value on that? Also factor in that there are a bunch of scoring systems and league sizes. It gets crazy.
Question 13:
We are a keeper auction league, but do a snake draft for rookies. I have the 5th pick and the 15th pick, what are your rookie rankings? I'm assuming Richardson, Martin, RG3, and Luck will be gone. I feel like I'm picking between Blackmon who looked pretty good this weekend or David Wilson. I will have the option to keep these players for the next 3 years.
Kent Bailey [PUYALLUP, WA]
A:
I would take Blackmon. He’ll be Jacksonville’s No. 1 receiver in 2012, 2013 and 2014 – looks like he could be very good. With Wilson, he’s looking like a guy who might not play much as a rookie. D.J. Ware seems to be the No. 2 tailback in New York this year.
Question 14:
Do you have a feature that incorporates the value of a RB that assumes you automatically get his backup also? For example, in Brian Westbrook's heyday, I always had Westbrook as a top 3 RB (in my PPR) because I always got Buckhalter and plugged him for the games Westbrook missed and get pretty much the same production. I was not concerned with Westbrook's injuries (even though he was very injury prone). This could potentially change the value of guys like McFadden, Mathews and Murray.
ZACH LEAVITT [HIGHLANDS RANCH, CO]
A:
I just skimmed over the 32 teams. For most, when the starting running back goes down, I have definite interest in the backup. A lot of those guys maybe aren’t quite as talented, but their numbers might be just as good. In Jacksonville, for example, if Rashad Jennings is 90 percent as good as Maurice Jones-Drew, then for fantasy purposes, he might be just as valuable. When Jones-Drew is in there, after all, he’ll be spelled some by Jennings. But when Jennings is in there, the dropoff looks even bigger down to third string (Montell Owens?). And if Jennings is in the same ballpark ability-wise, then the matchup plays a bigger role in determining overall success. I would definitely prefer Jennings starting against Indianapolis, for example, over Jones-Drew playing at Pittsburgh. As I look at the teams, there are only a handful where I say, “uh, oh, they’re down to their backup tailback – big dropoff”. Baltimore, Tennessee, Cleveland (probably), Philadelphia (probably), Oakland, Denver, Kansas City and St. Louis are those teams for me.
Question 15:
I've aways put a lot of value on strength of schedule by position when selecting players. For instance couple seasons ago Ian kept getting higher and higher on Mike Williams in Tampa Bay. I would not typically draft a rookie wide receiver but he was going to be the only starter and they where scheduled to have a top ten (maybe better) schedule for Wide Receivers. My question is how much are the FFI projections already weighted on strength of schedule? Custom projections have me valuing Marshawn Lynch much higher than Steven Jackson but based on strength of schedule projections Seattle is to play a bottom 1/3 difficult schedule for running backs where I have seen St Louis to play a top five if not the easiest schedule for running backs. I've read all the mail bags but only caught about half of the podcasts. If you have already addressed this please let me know where to find it.
Adam Bjork [SAVAGE, MN]
A:
I don’t put too much weight into Strength of Schedule. I look at it from time to time, and if I feel a team has a really easy or really hard schedule, I will tweak their numbers. But I don’t see a team that fits that profile this year. The Patriots project to play the easiest schedule, but they were going to put up big numbers anyway. And will their schedule even wind up being the easiest? We’ll see. Same way on the other end with the Giants, who project to play the toughest schedules. Teams/defenses change a lot from year to year.
Question 16:
I would like your thoughts on how to most accurately input the players on your Custom Rankings Generator for my 8 team league. I pretty much know exactly how many of each position will be drafted, we have to abide these requirements throughout the season: 2QBs, 5/6RBs, 5/6WRs, 2TEs, 2Ks, 2DEF. We are to start: 1QB, 2RBs, 2WR, 1Flex(RB/WR), 1TE, 1K, 1Team DEF.
Jeff Carter [FRANKLIN, TN]
A:
Do you really want to go with firm roster requirements? That means there will be a bunch of good quarterbacks who aren’t selected. If, for example, you were to wait until the last two rounds, you’d still get a couple of quarterbacks like Flacco, Fitzpatrick, Dalton, Luck, Griffin, Cutler, Palmer, Schaub, Freeman and Ponder. I am very confident that of those 10 quarterbacks, only four will be selected in your league. The better structure, I think, is to allow teams to select only one kicker and defense if they wish. Otherwise, if you allow teams to cheaply and freely use the waiver wire, it will be appealing to hop from quarterback to quarterback each week – you’d almost be penalizing your team by selecting two top-10 quarterbacks, because you would lose the freedom to obtain the waiver-wire talent. What was the question again? Oh, yeah. 10 Quarterbacks, 29 running backs, 30 wide receivers, 8 tight ends, 3 kickers and 4 defenses.
Question 17:
Just received the August 20th update. Why there is such a big disparity between Dez Bryant and Miles Austin? And with NE receivers, not much disparity between down Wes Welker and up Brandon Lloyd?
Roger Bunting [DUNEDIN, FL]
A:
I am getting more nervous about the hamstring issues. That’s why you see the dip with Austin. Bryant, meanwhile, looks ready for a breakout-type season. Did you see the leaping, one-handed non-catch at San Diego? With Austin and Witten banged up, Bryant is about all they have at wide receiver right now. (Though now Bryant has a knee issue, so he’ll fall some on Thursday). In New England, I don’t think Welker will be used as extensive this year. I will be surprised if Welker is on any of my teams this year.
Question 18:
I know there have been different flavors to this question, but if you're picking 6th in a 12 team standard league with no flex and 6 pts. for all td's.. Assuming the pick is Brady or Brees, on the comearound at 19 is Graham,Gronk or Julio Jones the better player to grab?
Bill Petilli [LARCHMONT, NY]
A:
I believe Julio Jones, with his ability to get downfield and pick up big chunks of yardage, will be a lot more productive than either Gronkowski or Graham.
Question 19:
Thanks for all the great insight! Im in a league that gives points for kick and punt return yardage. We also use individual defense players. What offensive and defensive players would benefits most from this system.
MIKE MADDEN [RIVER FOREST, IL]
A:
I have been making more of an effort to track kick returners in the updates this year – identifying which guys will handle kickoffs and punts. Trindon Holliday looks great for the Texas; 2 TDs so far. With Collie possibly missing time in Indianapolis, you’ve got to keep an eye on Hilton and Brazzil – they’ll play more at wide receiver, and they’ll return kicks. Pittsburgh may use their No. 3, Emmanuel Sanders, on punts. They’ve also got rookie Chris Rainey, who may be their third-down back and return kickoffs. Devin Hester should be on your list. Darren Sproles should return both. Brandon Tate might return both and play more at wide receiver. Mariani will return both for Tennessee, but I don’t think he’ll play much as a receiver. San Diego used Micheal Spurlock as a slot receiver and kick returner with the first-unit offense on Saturday night; let’s keep an eye on him. Randall Cobb becomes viable; he’ll play slot and return both kickoffs and punts. Brandon Banks will return both for Washington, but I don’t think he’ll play much as a wide receiver. Stefan Logan coud return both for the Lions, but he hurt his ankle last week. Patrick Peterson seems to be the league’s best punt returner. Leon Washington should handle both for Seattle.
Question 20:
What do you think of my team. 10 team PPR (1QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 RB/WR 1 TE 1Defense 6 bench QB- Phillip Rivers, Jake Locker RB- Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Kevin Smith, and Ben Tate WR: Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Pierre Garcon, Steven Smith (Carolina) Mike Williams (TB) and Randall Cobb TE- Aaron Hernandez, Jared Cook. I just hope lynch stays focused after his payday. Any advice?
Jonathan Galper [tarzana, CA]
A:
I also drafted Rivers in a league. I mind myself awfully nervous about his ability to stay healthy and effective. Their left tackle, Jared Gaither, hasn’t practiced because of a back injury, and they’ve got a free agent rookie out there. Even with Gaither, I think it’s a bottom-5 line.
Question 21:
Picking 2nd (taking Rice after Foster), in a 12 team snake draft. I am having a hard time coming up with a strategy for the next4 rounds. Not sure if its better to get a 2nd RB and take best available TE or WR, (Gronk or maybe Cruz), then miss out on the top 5 QBs. I can scoop up a manning in the 7th round probably, or maybe even spin the wheel with Luck or Griffin. Just looking for thoughts on the order you think it might be best to go in as far as position.
Aaron Davitian [CHULA VISTA, CA]
A:
I was faced with the exact same situation in the 12-team Fanex league, which is a PPR league with 3 starting wide receivers and a flex (RB-WR-TE). I followed Rice with four straight wide receivers. Cruz, Jones, Austin and Decker.
Question 22:
Hi Ian and thanks for your time. I'm the fourth pick in a 14 team non-PPR league. I've got it on good authority that Brady and Rogers will be gone by my first round pick, which leaves me with Ray Rice or Arian Foster (no tragedy there). For my second and third round pick I'm thinking a combo of Eli Manning (or Stafford) and the Victor Cruz or Hakeem Nix. I've heard that good QBs are at a premium in 14 team leagues. What do you think?
ERIC BURGESS [WAYLAND, MA]
A:
I think you can still consider punting the quarterback position until the sixth round or so. What if you wait until 13 other teams have drafted quarterbacks? In my eyes, you might still be able to get two of these guys (and live to be competitive): Luck, Flacco, Dalton, Griffin, Fitzpatrick, Freeman, Cutler, Palmer, Ponder.
Question 23:
I have the first pick in a standard 12-team league (with 6 pts for all TD, and a flex). I also have DeMarco Murray as a keeper (only lose a late-round pick). Murray seems to be highly thought of going into this year, but still somewhat unproven, too. Would you still lean towards Foster in order to have a strong RB pairing, or would Rodgers maybe make more sense?
Carl Noble [ELLICOTT CITY, MD]
A:
My stat projections indicate Foster is the top player on the board, followed by Rodgers and Brady. There are a lot of good quarterback. I think you’ll be fine grabbing a couple of good ones in the later rounds.
Question 24:
Keeper League with the following: Brees $60 & Stafford $15, McCoy, Bradshaw, & Charles combined $64, Antonio Brown & Steve Smith combined $27, Jimmy Graham $12 - all with $22 left to spend on my 5 reserves, K, and D (and future keepers whose salary jumps by $5 each year thru 3 seasons...Brees in his 3rd year and Stafford in his second.) I know Brees is over-priced, but by less than the discounts on the rest for sure. Flex is allowed to be a QB in a QB friendly scoring league. Thinking about throwing Brees back and going for Ryan at about $25 to afford Megatron, and still have $17 for 4 reserves,a K, and a D. What do you think?
ERIC INGERICK [PENFIELD, NY]
A:
I don’t know the exact specs, but in a general sense, I would take the Ryan-Megatron combo platter over Brees.
Question 25:
I am in a 10 team PPR league with a flex player. I have the 10th pick in a snake draft. I see in your latest update in your overall rankings both ATL WR's are listed as 10th and 11th. Assuming all 9 players go as you predicted (unlikely) would you really take both of these players? If not, who would you take here?
MONTE MCDONALD [LAS VEGAS, NV]
A:
Yes. I would have no problem with those guys. They could give you kind of a balanced offense. On weeks Roddy White gets shut down (or at least held in check), that would make it more likely that Julio Jones would have a big game. And versa vice. I imagine you’d like to see a top-4 running back there. Unlikely. Rodgers and Brady will be gone. Megatron will be gone. I think you’ll be drafting at least one Atlanta receiver. Maybe you for a difference-maker at tight end? But numbers suggest the Falcons pass catchers.
Question 26:
Hi Ian. I've got the #7 pick in my 10 man non-keeper league. 6 pts for all td's, 1/2 pt per reception, bonuses for rushing or receiving over 100 yds, 4 pts for every 100 yds passing but this value doubles after 200 yds. Anyway, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers and Brady will be the top 5 picks leaving one guy ahead of me who will take either Brees, Megatron or Chris Johnson. If you had my pick, how would you rank those three, assuming I'll have a shot at two of them? Or am I leaving somebody out?
Jeffrey Damiani [CAMBRIDGE, MA]
A:
I’d probably lean to one of the Johnsons. Hard to go wrong with Megatron. But there’s scarcity at running back – there always is – so it would be nice to sew up what appears to be the safest choice outside the big three. If you draft Chris Johnson, it could help you avoid having to force a pick on a running back in round 2, 3 or 4.
Question 27:
Twelve team non ppr yardage plus touchdown redraft league with one flex. Qb touchdowns four points. I have the seventh pick, by the way I feel this is one of the worst draft spots to have. Pretty sure draft wil go rodgers, foster, rice, mcoy, brady, calvin johnson. My question is who do i take? I really do not want to draft brees but the next wr and rb on my board dont seem like they deserve to be drafted this high. Do I take chris johnson? My next wr is victor cruz but I feel I can get him in the third. Please help. This league has been together for over 20 years so this is personal. And as always you guys are doing another great job this year.
SCOTT TINSMAN [LAONA, WI]
A:
I would go with Chris Johnson. The clear No. 4 running back, I think. Gets you out of having to force a pick on a running back in one of the other early rounds.
Question 28:
I have the #1 pick in a 10 team league. Scoring system is 4pts for passing TDs & 6pts rushing/receiving TDs. Having trouble deciding on Foster or Rodgers. Depending on which one I select, who would you target with picks 20 & 21?
NORMAND DESROSIERS [GRAFTON, MA]
A:
I’d go Foster, then see what’s there with the next two. Probably wide receivers.
Question 29:
Longtime fan of Fantasy Index and a yearly (as in all season long) subscriber. Trouble in Keeper-league land. Every year we get to keep three players (without giving up any draft picks). League scoring format - PPR: 1 point every 15 passing yards 4 points per passing TD 1 point every 10 receiving/rushing yards 1 point per reception 6 points per receiving/rushing TD Start:1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE (you can start 3 TE's if you like). Potential Keepers (keep 3): Matt Stafford, Ray Rice, DeMarco Murray, Fred Jackson, Jimmy Graham. I have trouble dropping Stafford. I was thinking Stafford, Rice, Murray.
Eric Hachlinski [ROYAL OAK, MI]
A:
I think Rice and Stafford are the easy two. The more difficult choice is Murray or Graham. I give Murray the slight edge for that last spot.
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Question 1: Instead of pulling the draft...
Posted by PETER STEINKE | Aug. 21 at 09:18 PM
I completely disagree. Based on the hard data from our league of 20 years there is definitely not an advantage to drafting first. Granted the size of the league might matter (we are an 8 team league). The statistics I track as commissioner show an even distribution of playoff appearances across draft positions. Recently the first pick has only made the playoffs 1 out of the last four leagues while the last pick has made the playoffs 3 out of the last four. The naive assumption that "first must be best" has to actually be backed up by results not just speculation.
Question 1: Instead of pulling the draft...
Posted by PETER STEINKE | Aug. 21 at 09:20 PM
Again, don't just go with "projections". Look at your league RESULTS for what positions make the playoffs, and win champiionships.
Question 1: Instead of pulling the draft...
Posted by PETER STEINKE | Aug. 21 at 09:26 PM
Totally agree. Just ahead of the "triple R" Qbs but definitely not top 5. Hard to pull ahead of Newton-Stafford for 4th or 5th
Question 1: Instead of pulling the draft...
Posted by PETER STEINKE | Aug. 21 at 09:30 PM
Does patellar tenditis change your Bryant concerns at all? There seems to be a contagious injury bug going around with the Dallas WRs
Question 1: Instead of pulling the draft...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 22 at 03:40 AM
Peter - the fact that drafting first hasnt been an advantage for people drafting in your league doesnt mean it isnt an advantage. They are not using Ian's rankings. Not to say he is infallible, obviously, but I think he has to use his projections to answer the question. Sure, in the real world injuries will strike, bad picks and/or trades will be made, waiver claims will factor in, etc. That is, maybe those teams selecting first that didn't make the playoffs either (1) didn't draft well the rest of the way, or (2) actually did have the best teams immediately after the draft, but didn't when the season ended four months later.
Question 1: Instead of pulling the draft...
Posted by JEFF WEILER | Aug. 22 at 05:35 AM
How would these values by team change using your numbers, but a 3rd round reversal draft? Does the gap close substantially?
Question 1: Instead of pulling the draft...
Posted by Richard Weber | Aug. 22 at 03:24 PM
Ian's theory is based solely on his projections, not any draft results or player-performance results. CBS did a study a few years back that showed that the the most titles were won by the team picking first, followed by second, third and then last. I don't know the order after that, but clearly it doesn't go in the same order as the snake draft. In most years, I'd rather be last or second-to-last than 8th, 9th or 10th. (Not this year, but that's another story for another day.)
Question 5: Do you read anything into...
Posted by BILL REHOR | Aug. 21 at 03:07 PM
That seemed pretty meaningful to me. Ridley wasn't even 2nd team - he was the 3rd guy in. I'm starting to wonder if Ridley fumbles a lot in practice or something - they seem reluctant to commit to him. Love to hear what you think once you've looked at it, Ian.
Question 5: Do you read anything into...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 21 at 05:05 PM
Bill, I agree it was odd that Ridley was the third guy in, but they also played Ryan Mallett ahead of Brian Hoyer, and there's been no indication that Hoyer is in any danger of losing the backup job. New England held so many key starters out of last night's game, since they play again on Friday, that it might be a mistake to read too much into the order. Certainly based on the way Bolden has looked in the exhibitions, I'd be stunned if he were ahead of Ridley on the depth chart. It is reasonable to think Vereen is making a run at that job, though, and New England wanted to see him with the first team (such as it was with Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez all inactive).
Question 6: Would you have any general...
Posted by stephen hicks | Aug. 21 at 03:12 PM
Sorry to nit pick Ian but I was interested in the response because I'm in a 16 roster spot league myself and your figures give you 18 roster spots instead of 16. If you had to drop 2 which would they be?
Question 8: Are you sure you dont...
Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | Aug. 21 at 04:53 PM
Yes, im giving Marshall credit for making the pro bowl last season and out performing everyone .I thought making the pro bowl was a yearly honor and the players who make it are the best that year.Maybe the game is a joke but Bryant didnt make it and Marshall did.Your the expert and your saying it doesnt matter?Are you serious?Im so sure Marshall will out perform Bryant this year,i will pay double my subcribtion cost next year if he doesnt.If he does out perform Bryant then next year is free to me?You better hope he quits slapping his mother around!!
Question 11: With our draft coming up...
Posted by PETER STEINKE | Aug. 21 at 09:36 PM
Has there been any news about MJDs conditioning? It seems to me last years CJ2K fall had more to do with his (well documented) being out of shape than the holdout itself. I haven't been able to read anything about MJDs shape. Walter Jones in his prime made a habit out of "holding out" just to skip camp but then played at a top level. It's hard to believe MJD will skip the year as much as he is into fantasy football and individual statistics.
Question 12: For a dynasty league auction,...
Posted by David Brotherton | Aug. 24 at 10:39 AM
Thanks for your insight. You're right, it's hard enough to predict what these players are going to do in the coming year, much less what they are going to do for the rest of their careers. But, that's a big part of what makes the dynasty/keeper auction formats interesting.
Question 13: We are a keeper auction...
Posted by David Grace | Aug. 21 at 10:35 PM
Wilson ran with the first team at the Giants practice today and Eli was raving about how hard he runs and how fast he is. I don't think this is a slam dunk.
Question 16: I would like your thoughts...
Posted by William Stoud | Aug. 22 at 07:54 AM
I am in a 24 team keeper league, I traded up to the third pick from 18, yet I have 5 picks in the top 100. My question is Which QB will have the better year; Rodgers, Brady or Brees? I know the top two picks will be foster and McCoy...The last 4 winners all had a stud QB so i am going QB. (no worries on bye weeks we get their average)
Question 16: I would like your thoughts...
Posted by Jeff Carter | Aug. 22 at 08:50 AM
Ian - Thank you for answering my question, and your insight. I agree wholeheartedly, the position roster requirements are asinine. Our commissioner and other league mates insist on having this so as to not "hoard" talent. No worries, I've been playing on these chumps money for years now.
Question 18: I know there have been...
Posted by Troy Hopper | Aug. 23 at 01:56 PM
win percentages (as predictors) published for each game each week in the past. For instance.....week 1 NE at TEN (80% NE win), PHIL vs CLE (75% win) and so forth. Will they be available this year as well? And if so, when? Thanks, Troy