Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 28 at 02:27 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
With the 2nd pick in a draft, does it really make sense to pick Aaron Rodgers if the best RB available on your next pick is Matt Forte, while Newton and Stafford are still available?
CRAIG MCCALLUM [KIRKLAND, WA]
A:
Are you locked into selecting a running back in the second round? Is it not an acceptable option to open with a QB and 2 WR? Are you comfortable with going with an outside-the-box approach, maybe picking running backs like Stevan Ridley and Alfred Morris later. It seems like you might be one of those world-is-flat guys who has to select a running back in the first or second round. If you go that route, the problem solving becomes simpler. Rodgers (416 points) + Forte (177) = 593. Ray Rice (231) + Newton (357) = 588. That drops to 577 if you wind up with Stafford. So not a lot of difference there – less than a 1 percent difference in production, and I would suggest you would move to the next step and mull which guy you’re most comfortable with. Both Rodgers and Newton carry some injury risk. I’m not really excited about selecting Forte in the second round.
Question 2:
Do to some unforseen circumstances, we have had to postpone our draft until after the Wednesday night opener between the Giants and Cowboys. I believe you have mentioned that you have played in some leagues where the draft happened after the first game. We are considering locking certain players as starters for week 1 (Murray, Bradshaw, Cruz, Bryant, etc) as long as they are active for the game. Do you agree with this (obviously if the draft happened before the first game and you spent a 4th rounder on Bryant, you are going to start him in week 1)? As for the players that are not obvious starts, we are going to give the owner that drafts them the discretion as to start them or not.
ZACH LEAVITT [HIGHLANDS RANCH, CO]
A:
There are a bunch of different ways to do it. You can allow owners to start them retroactively (or MAKE them start them retroactively). You can call them all off limits. You also potentially could just select those few key players right now. Decide on a draft order and have teams submit sealed bids identifying where they would select them. For example, I maybe had the fourth pick overall, and I’m saying I would select Victor Cruz at 3.04, DeMarco Murray at 2.09, Eli Manning at 5.04, Tony Romo at 7.04 (but only if I don’t have Manning), etc. Then teams could choose to either start or bench them prior to that first game.
Question 3:
Our league has a very unique draft system. It is a hybrid of auction and snake formats. Each team is alloted $100 to "buy" their first three players. Once each team has purchased three players, then we go to a snake style draft. My question is, how would I prepare a value based draft sheet based on this format?
Brian Bonic [LANSING, IL]
A:
I like the “Drauction” format, as others call it. It’s got some of the best of both worlds. It gives everyone one a chance at the top players, while going with a simpler approach for the bulk of the talent. I sometimes struggle in the auction format with sleeper-type players. If I throw out a kicker like Shayne Graham for $1.00 or maybe Alfred Morris a week ago, then everyone else knows that’s one of my unheralded value-type guys. Somebody else maybe hops in at $2, and suddenly I’m having to overpay to get one of my players. The drauction guards against that. But with a drauction, I think you need to buy more than three players. Buying just three, there isn’t enough of a penalty for being the team that breaks the bank for a player like Arian Foster or Aaron Rodgers. Everyone’s draft board is different. I’ll have players in my top 30 that aren’t on your list of 36 players you feel should be purchased. I might even get a top-25 player for the $1 minimum. So that makes it awfully tempting to simply bid $98 dollars on Arian Foster. Foster plus a couple of guys like Doug Martin, Willis McGahee, Hakeem Nicks or Jimmy Graham, that would be a pretty good start. According to my math, Foster, Rodgers and Ray Rice are all worth well over $100 in your league. To guard against multiple teams wanting to employ the “I’ll just take Foster and a couple of guys” strategy, you probably should auction for five or six players. To prepare your draft board, decide on the players you feel will be drafted and set baseline players. I suggest you set baselines at guys who’ll be selected about 90th-110th overall. That gives you a bang-for-the-buck number for each player. Then take your first 36 players and do the same process again. Just forget about positions for those guys. I suggest you set the baseline at about 70-75 percent of the players (make the bottom quarter of the guys worth $1.00). But you need to purchase more than three.
Question 4:
Admittedly I'm a Wisconsin homer, but even before the third preseason game, I'm surprised you're still really low on Russell Wilson. He has clearly outperformed Flynn and has been so good throughout camp that they disregarded the need for Tavaris Jackson before the first preseason game. In fantasy terms, he has the great equalizer - rushing production. Obviously we don't at all, but if you KNEW he would be the starter and remain the starter, where would you rank him?
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
I didn’t know we were low on Wilson. I thought we had been high on him all along. Back in the magazine, we were pointing out that he would have been a top-10 overall pick if he were taller. If you look at the other measurables and set aside height, there’s no way any quarterbacks other than Luck or RGIII should have been selected before him. We had an in-house argument in May. Andy wanted to slot him ahead of Brandon Weeden, arguing that while Weeden would start right away, Wilson had more long-term potential. But whatever. Wilson is starting now, and I think he’ll be very good. For fantasy purposes for the 2012, I’ve got him right in there with Luck and RG3. It would not surprise me if all three of those guys were top 20 quarterbacks this year. RG3 and Wilson are great runners. Wilson isn’t as fast, but he’s got a great feel for when to take off. I could see him running for 500-600 yards, and that makes him an intriguing sleeper in my eyes.
Question 5:
It seems like everyone is jumping on the Russell Wilson bandwagon and I just don't get it. I've watched all his preseason games and he's doing what you expect from a 5'11" QB. He completes a lot of passes on rollouts, or on broken plays when his legs buy him time for receivers to get open. When he does stay in the pocket, his passes are high due to not being able to tower over his offensive lineman. His stats look really good, but it's deceptive. One of his TDs against the Chiefs was a total broken coverage by the defender and Braylon Edwards, out of all people, has made some amazing catches for him on passes that easily could of been intercepted. I just think Matt Flynn has been more solid. His last start against the Broncos was marred due to the Owens' inability to catch/run correct routes and Russell Okung unable to block Elvis Dumervil. I hoped Fantasy Football Index would be my voice of reason, but instead you're drinking the Kool-Aid too. Please tell me you guys just looked at the stats and we're too busy camping & road tripping to actually watch any of the games. At least I can respect that answer instead of you getting fooled by the ultimate cheerleader, Pete Carroll.
Cody Hager [ALOHA, OR]
A:
I have never bought the 5-foot-11 argument – that he wouldn’t be able to see over the offensive line and will have too many passes knocked down. As Wilson (probably via his agent) pointed out on the Gruden QB camp deal, Wisconsin had the biggest offensive line in the country last year. Do you really think that Matt Flynn, with his eyes 3 inches higher, has some kind of advantage? How often do Flynn’s passes clear the outstretched arm of a pass rusher by 3 inches? It’s ridiculous. The problem with short quarterbacks is that their hands are too small and the don’t have enough range. But that’s not an issue with Wilson. His hands are bigger than any of the quarterbacks selected in the first round. And he’s got plenty of arm strength – a much stronger arm than Flynn. I like Wilson’s knack for knowing when to take off on scrambles, and he seems to be able to lob in balls accurately. I think he’s the real deal.
Question 6:
I have an auction value question for you. My 12-team auction league starts 1 QB, 2 RB 3 WR 1 flex, 1 TE 1 K and 1 Def. With 18 rounds, how many should I assume will be selected at each position and how many over $1?
TROY SPERBECK [ARDEN HILLS, MN]
A:
I have been mulling ways to re-word that question “How many guys will be selected for more than $1.00?” It’s an intimidating question, especially for those who aren’t even in a salary cap league. It’s like dropping a guy in a loin cloth in the Colosseum and saying, “Go take on those lions.” What we’re trying to do is isolate a subset of players – the 80-120 guys that you really care about. If you were drafting players, how many of each position would be in that first 80-100? Once you do that, then the computer, through technology magic, will show you the relative values, by measuring how much better each player is than the best player at his position that you did not put in the subset. Got it? That’s what we’re looking for. For your league, please start by trying 15 QB, 36 RB, 42 WR, 14 TE, 3 K and 3 Def.
Question 7:
You touched on it in the update, but do you have any more details on the backup WR situation in Dallas? Which one backs up Austin and which backs up Bryant (in other words, which is praying for a pulled hammy and which is hoping for a DUI)? Which has the inside track on the coveted #3 spot, or will they share time there? Any insight would be appreciated. I ended up with Austin in a few places (he's going cheap these days) and want to have my eye on the right backup if he's out again.
BILL REHOR [CULVER CITY, CA]
A:
I think it’s Kevin Ogletree. When the team played at San Diego a few weeks back, Dez Bryant played. Ogletree started on the opposite side in that game and got all of the reps with the first-unit offense. As far as I can see, he’s playing well, catching 10 of the 12 passes thrown his way in the preseason. Somewhere along the line (it might have been the Rams game, but I think it was against the Chargers) the thought occured to me that Dallas might not miss Laurent Robinson so much after all. To me, Ogletree looks like he can play. And Dwayne Harris seems to be decent enough as well. And a rung down in the pecking order, the little Cole Beasley guy shows some potential as a slot guy. If Austin is missing from the opener in eight days, Ogletree and Harris will merit consideration as fill-in type options. Ogletree (I think) would show up as a top-30 receiver on my Week 1 board under that scenario.
Question 8:
I will buy TWO magazines next year IF you change the glamour shot! Anyways, a followup question to an answer a few days ago. In a 10 team PPR league/snake draft (I got 10th pick) last week you said you would have no problem pulling the trigger on J Jones & R White BUT wouldn't it be better to draft TE Gronk AND TE Graham (we start a TE and flex) since depth at WR is better than TE?
MONTE MCDONALD [LAS VEGAS, NV]
A:
Naw. I’ll go with the Falcons receivers over the elite tight ends. White and Jones will put up much better numbers than those guys, and I think there’s plenty of depth at both positions.
Question 9:
I draft Wed night 8/29. What big changes do you expect in the overall top 35 picks, any obvious movers at the top of the board? Our league is a high performance, PPR, Yardage, with only 8 teams, so the first 4 round are critical - I draft 6th, in a snake. You've helped me be the only back-to-back winner ever in our league, hoping you help me again this year!
Daniel Alpern [PORT HUENEME, CA]
A:
The Sunday night list still looks good. The only significant changes are at kicker. I had the error where I didn’t put Shayne Graham up there in the top 6. Washington is now going with Billy Cundiff (he should be about No. 15).
Question 10:
I'm in a 12-team PPR league that previously had 1 QB, 2 RBs, 1 TE, and 2 WR/RB flex starters. This year, our flex positions increased to 4 and can include TEs. I normally draft my TE late (and did well last year with your advice on Aaron Hernandez). If I end up with a late draft spot (i.e. 10, 11 or 12) would it make any sense to take Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski with my first two picks, getting two viable starters while leaving the rest of the league with lesser TE choices?
Doug Alger [SAN JOSE, CA]
A:
As much as I would like to stick it to the other owners, there are just too many good tight ends out there. With that many flex players, I would ignore positions for RB-WR-TE and just take the best players in the early rounds. And if you look at simply production, I don’t think you’d want to take Graham or Gronk there.
Question 11:
I ordered the most recently updated Cheat Sheet and was customizing the scoring system online to get some values for our league's auction. However, a significant component of Defense scoring in our league is Points Allowed. I do not see an option for accommodating that. We essentially use a 24-point baseline, and award defenses 1 point for each Point Allowed lass than that (eg. a shutout is worth 24, giving up 17 is worth 7, etc). How much would this impact money budgeted for the top defenses, and what would those top defenses be? And which one or two might be a low-budget steal?
Mark Ribiero [U S A]
A:
You don’t mention if there are negative points involved. Is allowing 25 points the same as allowing 45 points? It makes a difference. If there are no negative points, then the scoring system becomes simply how many points under 384 (16 times 24) will the defense figure. We do forecast those numbers. They’re in the Excel stat download. We’ve got San Francisco at No. 1, with a projected 112 points. Houston and Pittsburgh are at 96 and 80. Those are the projected fantasy points. In that kind of a format, I would set the baseline at about 70. That is, San Francisco’s adjusted fantasy value would be about 42 points (112 minus 70). I would suggest you target two defenses. Seattle and Kansas City. I think those will be the best two “deals”. Both units are coming on. Kansas City had a top-5 defense at the end of last year. If you are counting negative points, send me a followup email. I might have time to run the numbers from last year to get an idea of how much more that would make those top-level defenses.
Question 12:
I am in a 16 team. We can only keep five players on our bench. I am trying to figure out which running backs to keep on my bench. I currently have Bernard Scott and Vick Ballard. I am wondering if I should drop one for Robert Turbin. Taiwan Jones is available as well.
DAVID BOZZELLI [INDIANAPOLIS, IN]
A:
Those guys all have similar value. I would put Turbin No. 1 – I think he’s got the most upside.
Question 13:
What is the history of great RBs having mutliple surgeries and being able to live up to their potential? Hold one and three in keep as many as you want 8 team dynasty league. 6 pts pass/rush/rec Tds. Some yardage and longer TD bonuses. Very concerned about Richardson's knee. I can get Richardson and Martin or draft Luck and Martin.
RODNEY NESBIT [REDONDO BEACH, CA]
A:
I would take Luck before Richardson. I think he’s going to be a Manning-Brees-Brady kind of a guy. I worry about Richardson’s ability to stay healthy for five-plus years.
Question 14:
What is the history of great RBs having mutliple surgeries and being able to live up to their potential? Hold one and three in keep as many as you want 8 team dynasty league. 6 pts pass/rush/rec Tds. Some yardage and longer TD bonuses. Very concerned about Richardson's knee. I can get Richardson and Martin or draft Luck and Martin.
Tom Pasquini [REDDING, CA]
A:
I would take Luck before Richardson. I think he’s going to be a Manning-Brees-Brady kind of a guy. I worry about Richardson’s ability to stay healthy for five-plus years.
Question 15:
I'm pretty sure you've answered this type of question before, but I need you to talk me down: Vegas betting lines. They have, among other things, Andre Johnson as third in total receiving yards, and Darren McFadden as fifth in total rushing yards. Now everyone knows that most betting lines are set to generate the highest dollar volume of bets. I'm thinking that with the popularity of FF for several years now, these particular betters are more savvy. Or are there that many Raider fans that will bet for "their guy" just out of loyalty?
Jose Montana [ROSEMEAD, CA]
A:
I don’t know how the bets are set up. If they were 50-50 type bets, I wouldn’t hesitate to bet against Andre Johnson. Even if he stays healthy, he wouldn’t necessarily finish in the top 3. If he misses a game or two with a tweaked hamstring or a sprained knee – or they just hold him out their last game – and there’s no way he’d finish in the top 3. That also looks high for McFadden. It’s tough for running backs to stay healthy, and he’s missed at least three games every year.
Question 16:
I am in an auction league with $200 total. Are your auction numbers based on any total or just an average of what you expect them to cost? They seem a little low based on $200 budget.
CHRIS CARMOSINO [flowery branch, GA]
A:
We don’t publish any auction values. I don’t like to do that because I want them to exactly fit the scoring system for the user’s league. So you would need to go to the website, get into your scoring profile and adjust the settings. You’ll plug either $100, $200 or whatever per team, and the computer will adjust all of the player values accordingly.
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Question 1: With the 2nd pick in...
Posted by Dave Conrad | Aug. 28 at 02:31 PM
they certainly didn't last year...
Question 1: With the 2nd pick in...
Posted by MARK MANCINA | Aug. 30 at 01:25 PM
Stan the Caddy say's unplayable lie in the sand if you go for Forte in the second.
Question 2: Do to some unforseen circumstances,...
Posted by STEVE SMITH | Aug. 28 at 04:42 PM
We do our Draft every year on the Saturday the NFL season starts. So there is always at least 1 Thursday game the week before. At first this was a concern, but after several seasons we just roll with it. It simply gives you more info on the players who play in that game. If Eli throws 4 TDs, great, just move him up a few slots on your draft board and start him in Week 1. If Hakeem Nicks gets shut out, you can still draft him, but pick up another player to start in his spot the first week as you already know he got a donut. In other words, just use the additional info. Every owner in the league has access to this info, so they should all bake it into their draft strategies. So be it...
Question 2: Do to some unforseen circumstances,...
Posted by Jeff Schwarze | Aug. 29 at 05:46 AM
We do our draft that night of the first game and I like how we handle the situation. Once a player from the game is selected, the owner has to announce at that exact moment if he is starting or not. The deeper into the draft we get, the more fun it becomes as some no-name TE scores a TD and the next owner up drafts him and starts him.
Question 4: Admittedly I'm a Wisconsin homer,...
Posted by MARK MANCINA | Aug. 30 at 01:17 PM
Come On Man; Inside info Russell Wilson grew up eating FLUTIE FLAKES for breakfast.
Question 5: It seems like everyone is...
Posted by Cody Hager | Aug. 30 at 09:08 AM
You've actually made my point by trying to defend your position with a freudian slip. "he seems to be able to LOB in balls accurately". Tall QBs don't need to lob balls to receivers...they throw accurate darts. I think if you always throw 50-50 balls to receivers, the odds will tend to play out. Russell Wilson ran hot in the pre-season. He'll cool off when defenses can prepare for his limitations.
Question 8: I will buy TWO magazines...
Posted by Joseph Varnon | Aug. 28 at 06:08 PM
I will buy three magazines next year, if you put your "glamour shot" on next year's cover
Question 8: I will buy TWO magazines...
Posted by DARREN PEARSON | Aug. 29 at 06:00 PM
Ditto on ditching the glamour shot, if your hand is on your chin you look like uncle Rico.
Question 8: I will buy TWO magazines...
Posted by Bill Mason | Aug. 29 at 06:12 PM
Everybody else has promised to buy extra magazines if you change your "glamour shot". I have already PAID for 4 versions of the 2013 magazine. Wait a minute...is this a devious way to sell more magazines? I wonder...