Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 07 at 09:44 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
What is your take on the Dallas passing game going forward? I can see an argument for three sides of Kevin Ogletree. Side #1 is that he simply benefited from Austin, Bryant and Witten not being fully healthy and recovered and had just come off a preseason of getting a lot of work with Romo (because of the above injuries). He was also going against the #4/5 CB for the Giants. In terms of playing time, he was clearly no higher than the #3 WR last night. He will go back to being the #4 option in the passing game next week. Side #2 is that he is the real deal and will have a breakout year. He may not have gotten the playing time, but he dominated in catches and targets (he had another catch that was erased on a penalty) and there were clearly plays that were called for him and Romo at times looked for him over the other 3. Miles Austin and Laurent Robinson have come out of nowhere to put up huge years for the Cowboys in recent seasons. Side #3 is that he will be the #3 guy, but he will eat into Witten's production, making Witten and Ogletree ownable but not really startable.
ZACH LEAVITT [HIGHLANDS RANCH, CO]
A:
Thanks for breaking it down for us. I see Ogletree as a guy who should be on fantasy rosters. Maybe he develops into something. Probably not, but maybe he’s pretty good. What if Austin re-injures that hamstring? Dez Bryant has had problems staying healthy. I think there’s a reasonable chance Ogletree starts some games at some point. When that occurs, I want him. As a No. 3, I doubt he’ll be an effective option but should reduce the value of the other guys – Bryant, Austin and Witten. He looks like this year’s Laurent Robinson.
Question 2:
I have been running an Auction Keeper League for 25 years and just recently joined a 2nd league that uses a snake draft league 4 years ago.This years draft was the 1st we switched to reverse order of win-loss records to determine draft order the same as the NFL over a random order. We are looking for a way to discourage a non-playoff team from tanking games at the end of the year. We have thought about losing teams having to pay a fee towards our prize pool if you have a losing record or a NBA-style lottery. With your knowledge of fantasy leagues and your resources of many other contributors to your website and magazine any suggestions would be appreciated.
STEVE PORTER [HAMPSTEAD, NH]
A:
If it’s a keeper league, with everyone keeping most of their players every year, then why are you using a snake draft? A snake draft is intended to create balance. But in your kind of league, when the winning teams are going 11-3 or whatever, you’re trying to help the lesser teams catch up. Seems like it should be a straight, regular draft order. If you want to discourage tanking a lottery could be a way to go, but do you really want a 6-8 team finishing with the No. 1 overall pick? I see that causing more problems than the idea that a team might intentionally tank games. But I’ll open it up, and we’ll see what the readers say.
Question 3:
I have Luck and Roethlisberger. I have the option to trade luck for Rivers. Should I do it, or keep Luck.
WYATT KLEIN [S MILWAUKEE, WI]
A:
I’m not a Rivers fan. Great quarterback, but the offensive line is terrible. Can he do it without pass protection? That said, I’ve still got him slightly here than those other two guys. If you can trade Luck or Roethlisberger straight up for Rivers, I guess that means you do it.
Question 4:
Loved your "Distance" Cheat Sheet in the mag, but it didn't make the preseason updates. Next year, maybe?
DONALD VANDENBORD [JACKSONVILLE, FL]
A:
You can access those rankings. That’s what the “Custom Cheat Sheet” tab is more. Click on that. Create a “scoring profile”. Take a moment to enter in your scoring system, with how many points you’re awarding for the touchdowns of various lengths. The correct rankings will then be displayed online.
Question 5:
Sorry to bug you again on the FFPC rankings. I just need a little more clarification. It is amazing to see how far the majority of the RBs fall in your rankings. For example, McFadden is down to 28th overall when in straight PPR leagues, you still have him listed as a top 10 pick. Is it the two flex spots that push the WRs up ahead of all these running backs? Tight Ends at 1.5 per catch makes sense but after doing a couple of these drafts, the running backs are flying off the board in the first couple of rounds. Using McFadden as an example, he is going top 5 in these drafts. I use your sheets as a guide as you have served me very well for years now. Just a little nervous if I should be pulling the trigger on RBs a little sooner. After two drafts, it looks like my running backs are leaving a little to be desired although I don't think the majority of them are reliable anyway.
WILL SAYRE [SACRAMENTO, CA]
A:
I’ve had a couple of guys email me about the FFPC. They have made the same observation – that the running backs are a lot lower on my board than we they’re actually seeing in the drafts. And I’m not in an FFPC league this year, so you guys have that advantage of actually being in the trenches. I am attacking it more from numbers and textbook theory. I have created projections for all of the players. The rules state that you must start two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end and two more players (from those positions). Most guys playing this game, I think, work from the premise that “I must get running backs early.” But in my rankings, I’m just working from the idea that there are seven spots to fill. Sure, you must select two running backs, but you also need to draft five of those other guys. So with others overvaluing the running back position, isn’t there some sense in just loading up with five butt-kickers at the WR-TE spots, and treat the two running back spots as the least important of the seven positions? Isn’t the way to go to simply forget about the positions, pretty much, and just draft the best guys you can get at the RB-WR-TE positions? We know that running backs are far more likely to get hurt than those other guys. We also know that some backup players will emerge at running back after the starters get hurt. According to my numbers, when you set aside the positions, the best tight ends and best wide receivers are going to be a lot better than a whole bunch of running backs. But again, take my advice with a grain of salt. You’re the guy in the trenches; you have to execute a draft strategy. Maybe you keep in mind that at some place somewhere along the line, you’ll need to move a running back up the board a little bit. But I am an advocate for tending to go with WR and TE in that format.
Question 6:
In your write-ups, you occasionally say a player is playing against his old team and that you think he'll try harder/do better. Is this just a feeling or do you have data for this?
Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
I’ve done some research on that. I’ve got files around. I know I’ve got a sizeable database on quarterbacks. But with the Weekly now going out on Wednesday (rather than Thursday) that creates a time crunch. Going forward, when I make note of a running back, wide receiver or tight end playing against a former team, I’ll try to include a chart in the Friday supplement. I’ll see if I can do something with tight ends before Sunday. Martellus Bennett came through with a nice game against Dallas, and we’ve got Tony Gonzalez showing up at Arrowhead on Sunday.
Question 7:
Long-time customer, first ever questions. Who has more support value on return, RB Jahvid Best or WR Vincent Brown? Also, best 3 of 4 deep sleepers between RB Brandon Bolden, RB Travaris Cadet, RB Bobby Rainey, and WR Joseph Morgan? I can stash on "Taxi Squad" in Keeper League.
Dennis Thomas [ROYAL OAKS, CA]
A:
I like Best in a PPR format. I think he might be pretty much 100 percent and ready to roll. They’re being cautious with the head injury, which is understandable. I read something about them wanting to have him one year clear of any problems before putting him back in there (hence the decision to put him on the PUP). Once he comes back, he could start cranking out games with solid production (again, in a PPR format – he averaged more receiving yards per game than Darren Sproles last year). With Brown, your hope would be that Meachem fizzles out or Floyd gets hurt, then Brown maybe could make an impact in December.
Question 8:
Julio Jones, Cruz, Nelson, Wayne, Floyd. RB: McGahee, Hillis, Donald Brown, David Wilson, Jacquizz Rodgers. I couldn't pass on those WRs when they were there but the result was that I waited on RB. Now I am second guessing myself. Should I find someone with some RB depth and try to upgrade? If so, what receiver would you part with most readily?
Robert Song [Pittsburgh, PA]
A:
No reason to panic. Jones, Cruz, Nelson. Those are dominating, franchise-type receivers. McGahee is a clear No. 1 back. Wait and see what you have with Hillis and Brown. You might be just fine.
Question 9:
I'm going to have a VERY short leash with Alfred Morris, as in like one week. Some decent alternatives are available on the waiver wire, and I don't want to wait too long on Morris and see them all scooped up. So my question: how would you rank Ryan Williams, Jacquizz, Leshoure, and James Stewart in a TD-only league?
Matt Tinker [ORLEANS, VT]
A:
I assume you mean Jonathan Stewart? There were two James Stewarts playing running back at one time, but both of those guys are 40 now. I don’t see them helping you. Not much difference between the other waiver-wire guys, in my opinion. Rodgers has the least value right now, but if Michael Turner gets hurt has more upside than any of the others.
Question 10:
Is it worth hanging on to Rashad Jennings if I do not own MJD? I still need to add a kicker to my lineup by Sunday and I have 6 RBs but only 2 starters: Chris Johnson and Trent Richardson. My other RBs in this 12 man non-PPR league are Ben Tate, Jacquizz Rogers, and Robert Turbin. I need to decide if I should cut my losses with Jennings or hang onto him I case MJD faulters out the gate. My other option is to drop Turbin, but he has looked incredible in preseason and Lynch is having back spasms.
Brett Watts [FLORENCE, SC]
A:
I would try to work a trade. All of those running backs have value. If you can’t pull that off, I think Rodgers will be the back you’ll have to release.
Question 11:
I have a trade question...I am in a .5 ppr league...Would you give McGahee and Blackmon to get Adrian Peterson?
Ian Nelson [BOCA RATON, FL]
Question 12:
I have been using Fantasy Index Cheat Sheet for over 11 years and have been very successful in my league. I was wondering how to obtain a list of rankings past the Top 35. It would be very helpful to have The Top 100 or 200 to aid in making decisions. My league starts any combination of 5 RB/WR/TE and having such a list would great in later rounds.
WILLIAM JARVIS [LINCOLN UNIV, PA]
A:
If you combine runners and receivers into one position, I would suggest you use the Stat Projections file. You know how to use Excel, right? We’ve got our numbers in there. You could go into that file and re-sort the players, separating the RB, WR and TE into their own group.
Question 13:
I have one open roster slot and Evan Royster and Mikel LeShoure are on the wire. I am really warming up to LeShoure. I want to dump Vereen (I’ve got Ridley) and grab both those guys. Would you sign off on that idea?
Roger Ligman [APPLE VALLEY, MN]
A:
I think Royster and LeShoure are more valuable than Vereen. But neither Royster nor LeShoure is all that valuable – neither will ever start ahead of Ridley, for example. So maybe you sneak one on for a one or two week looksie. See if you have something. A few weeks down the road, you’ll probably want to settle down to carrying Ridley’s handcuff, which probably will be Vereen but might be Bolden.
Question 14:
I'm in a 2-QB league, and I need to drop one of these 3 backup QBs before Week 1: Sanchez, Ponder, and Skelton.
Robert Bedetti [Beverly, MA]
A:
Ponder is No. 1 for sure. I think Skelton is No. 2. He’s got the terrible offensive line in front of him, but they pass a lot. The Cardinals posted above-average passing numbers last year (both yards and touchdowns). So I’d rather have that than the ground-and-pound I expect to see in New York. I don’t expect Skelton will stay healthy; you’ll have to trade him out at some point down the road.
Question 15:
No. 2 pick in a 16-team league, non-ppr but bonuses for reception benchmarks. Would you go Foster or Rice, and why one over the other? I did see that all versions of rankings had Foster No. 1, Rice either second or third. Can you please give reasons?
STEVE KATZ [COLUMBIA, MD]
A:
Rice has the reputation as the pass-catching back, but Foster is right there with him. They’re both outstanding. Rice has caught 139 passes the last two years, while Foster is at 119 – almost identical when you factor in that he’s missed some time.
Question 16:
In a 14 team standard nppr league, need some help at WR. A. Collie is available. Will he have better production than the likes of Amendola, M. Williams, D. Moore, or do you forsee another concussion in his future? Thanks for your input.
MIKE RADAKER [CLEARFIELD, PA]
A:
I like Collie, but he’s a “hold” type guy. No way would I select him before Amendola. Moore would probably come in ahead of him as well.
Question 17:
I am in a 12 man league with standard scoring where we start 2 RB and no flex. My dad and I are co-owners, and arguing whether or not we should do a trade. Our running backs are Foster, Ridley, Martin, McGahee and Morris. We blundered and didn't handcuff Foster with Tate. I want to trade McGahee for Tate. I don't think there are many weeks we are going to play McGahee anyways, and if Foster DOES go down, we would much rather have Tate than McGahee. He argues that we took McGahee with the 61st pick and Tate went with the 103rd (yes, like I said we made a mistake not getting him). His argument seems like a sunk-cost fallacy to me, where he wants to cling to the higher pick even though Tate is (in my opinion) clearly better for our team. What do you think?
john stolzmann [LONG BEACH, CA]
A:
You have four really good running backs. Ridley, Martin, McGahee are all solid, every-week starters in my opinion. I like McGahee a lot. So no reason to panic, in my opinion, when Foster leaves practice early with a sore knee. Even if Foster were to get hurt in September and miss the entire season, you would still be fine at running back. The offer I would make would involve Morris. He’s a notch down from those guys – maybe he winds up being a productive, every-week type back, or maybe he’s just nothing. If I were the other guy (the team with Tate) and I needed a running back, I would be happy to give up Tate for Morris.
Question 18:
Distance league. Pickup Jerome Simpson & drop either L Hankerson, Sidney Rice or R Streater? I'm thinking more upside for Simpson. All listed would be backups for me since I have C Johnson & J Nelson.
JOHN HARBAUGH [CROSS JNCT, VA]
Question 19:
Purchased your sep 3rd update. In our draft (16 team rec 1 pt alkyds 6) we can count points from dall/ nyg game. Based on that where would you rank Ogletree? Anyone else move up or down based on that game?
Vernon Jones [ROCKVILLE, MD]
A:
Tony Romo moves up a bit. If you draft him, you get to put that nice game in the bank: 300-plus yards and 3 TDs. Same with Miles Austin. With Ogletree, I think it starts making sense to select him after about 30 receivers. Maybe he doesn’t have much long-term value, but he helps your team take a big step towards winning in Week 1, and that’s worth something. (Plus maybe Ogletree actually pans out and turns into a viable wide receiver.)
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Question 1: What is your take on...
Posted by BRYAN BERTSCH | Sep. 08 at 08:50 AM
Let's face it, Tony Romo loves his WR3. Laurent Robinson last year, Patrick Crayton the year before, and even Miles Austin the year before that! I also notice that it always seems to be the WR3 that opens up on broken plays. Most of Robinson and last game Ogletree's production came when Romo was trying to make something happen. I think part of that is Dez Bryant - seems he runs his route then just gives up or something if he's not the target. In any case, taking a flyer on Ogletree seems like a great idea. Witten sure looked slow with lead feet - hardly the third option yet.
Question 2: I have been running an...
Posted by STEVE PORTER | Sep. 07 at 12:17 PM
Sorry,forgot to add the fact it is a Keeper league,but you can only keep 2 players and the 1st 2 rounds of players can't be kept.This way the top players are put back into draft every year. Thanks Ian for putting the question out there for the readers. Steve
Question 2: I have been running an...
Posted by Ken Rose | Sep. 07 at 01:36 PM
For the past 7 seasons I've run a keeper league that uses a straight line draft. Not sure how many teams you have and how many make the post-season but here's how we do it. 10 team league, 2 5 team divisions, 13 game regular season, top 3 teams per division make the playoffs. The four teams NOT making the playoffs are seeded 1-4. In week 14 1 plays 4, 2 plays 3. In week 15 the winner of the week 14 games play each other and the losers play each other. The winner of the winners game gets the no 1 pick in next year's draft, the loser gets pick no 2. The winner of the losers game gets pick 3 and the loser gets pick 4. For the playoff teams the division winners get a bye in week 14. The other teams making the playoffs play an in division wild-card round 2 vs 3. The losers of those two games play each other in week 15. The winner of that game gets pick 5 and the loser pick 6. The winners of the wild-card round play the division winning teams in week 15. Again the losers of those two games play in week 16 to determine picks 7 and 8 and the winners play for the title. The loser of the title winning game picks 9 and the title winning team picks 10. Sounds complicated but it really isn't and the benefit is most teams play for 15 weeks and with something to play for at the end of the year I've found that the owners with the bad teams still try and win out to improve their draft position for the next season.
Question 2: I have been running an...
Posted by John Evans | Sep. 07 at 01:59 PM
I am a commish in a dynasty, and I personally wouldn't allow teams tanking their season. They would be gone in a heartbeat. Our league keeps players based on the previous year's round in the draft, and a player can be kept for three seasons. Then the draft order is determined by standings. The team with the worst record gets the CHOICE of where he/she wants to draft in the first round. Since we have a snake draft...many team that keep the majority of their players in odd rounds (rounds 1,3,etc) will choice to draft LATE in the 1st round so they can get an earlier even round pick. Then the next to last place team does the same until all the draft positions in the 1st round are taken (and the 1st place team gets the "left over draft position). It has worked like a charm. But really...teams that tank to gain a benefit or don't participate will be bye-bye in my league. Should be in your league to. I have guys playing from Afghanistan and physician residents who play. If they can make time to update their team weekly...anyone can.
Question 2: I have been running an...
Posted by Brian Barrett | Sep. 07 at 03:39 PM
We do two things to discourage tanking at the end of the season. The first is a Skins contest that runs throughout the regular season. Everyone pitches in $5 every week and the high scorer wins the pot unless he doesn't beat the average to date high score. In that case the pot rolls over to the following week with the same requirement. If you mandate participation it would discourage tanking. The 2nd option we just voted in this year. The Toilet Bowl. The worst 6 teams in the league will play a playoff format at the same time as the top 6 teams but in the TB playoffs the losers advance. The loser of the TB will make a $100 contribution to the league champ. The worst two teams by record get first round byes so they automatically advance to the semis. That could provide a meaningful deterrent.
Question 2: I have been running an...
Posted by Jr. Ayers | Sep. 07 at 04:42 PM
In all of my leagues, the non-playoff teams participate in the "sad sack" playoffs. The winner of the Sad sack gets the first pick. For instance, if 4 teams don't make it, you play a round robin. For six, you set up a schedule that benefits the bottom 2. For 8, you do the same. It prevents tankin at the end, and rewards guys who stick it out all the way.
Question 2: I have been running an...
Posted by Tom Duggan | Sep. 07 at 05:00 PM
We run a loser bowl with the bottom 2 two teams the same week as our championship game. The loser of the loser bowl has to serve beer at the next year's auction while wearing a dress. And it's a ratty, nasty bad 80's prom-type dress that hasn't been cleaned in years. Needless to say, our non playoff teams stay quite engaged... Tom Duggan Tewksbury, NJ
Question 2: I have been running an...
Posted by Nathan Kline | Sep. 07 at 06:46 PM
This is a great solution. Have a number 1 pick playoff during the league championship playoffs. Here's my leagues example; We have a 10 man team where the top 6 make the playoffs. Seed 1 and 2 receive byes. 3 vs 6, 4 vs 5. Meanwhile during this wildcard round, we also have the bottom 4 teams face off in their own playoffs 7 vs 10, 8 vs 9. This ensures teams keep an intact roster and an active approach in the league. It also gives the bottom teams a little more participation which is nice. Anyway so to determine order is based upon this bracket. Example; Week 14 Seed 10 defeats Seed 7 Seed 8 defeats Seed 9 Week 15 Seed 7 defeats Seed 9.....Seed 7 picks 3rd, Seed 9 picks 4th Seed 10 defeats Seed 8..... Seed 8 picks 2nd, Seed 10 picks 1st. This also leaves your league championship to a week all its own.
Question 2: I have been running an...
Posted by MICHAEL MURILLO | Sep. 09 at 09:53 PM
There's a very easy way to eliminate tanking, but it's somewhat controversial: Stop rewarding losing. Set the draft order so that the BETTER you finish, the higher your draft spot (in a league where we do this, the champ actually goes last...but for everyone else it's how well you finish). Contrary to popular belief, it doesn't make it impossible for teams to improve-- especially in a keeper league. But it does provide incentives for winning instead of losing. There's no reason to tank because losing doesn't help your team. Winning every game matters, even if you're eliminated. NFL teams have other incentives to win-- a fan base, ticket and merch sales and league respect. In a fantasy league, it's hard to manufacture enthusiasm for winning games that will only hurt your team next year. I understand that many might find it unorthodox, but when you eliminate the incentives for losing...you eliminate tanking.
Question 7: Long-time customer, first ever questions....
Posted by Dennis Thomas | Sep. 07 at 12:02 PM
Thanks for the Javid Best feed back. What about the "Taxi Squad" question?
Question 17: I am in a 12...
Posted by BILL REHOR | Sep. 07 at 12:55 PM
He might have to wait a week. Ian, I think FFI is on an island with Morris. I agree with you myself (and hope we're right, since I have the guy all over the place) but every other fantasy site wrote Morris off when Washington put out its depth chart. The other guys in the letter writer's league (unless they're FFI readers) probably wonder why the guy is still on his roster. Hopefully Morris gets a lot of carries this weekend and becomes valuable trade bait come Monday morning, but until then we probably have to hold him and hope.
Question 17: I am in a 12...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Sep. 07 at 01:06 PM
Morris is tricky, but it is hard to know what else to take from him starting the third exhibition, running for 100 yards, and then being held out of the final exhibition along with RGIII, Garçon, Davis and Moss. I am not starting him this week either, but I certainly wouldn't start Royster based on nothing but a depth chart.