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Ian Allan's Mailbag


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Posted Sep. 14 at 10:10 AM

Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.



Question 1:

You were not alone about Alfred Morris. I drafted him in all 3 of my leagues and started him in all 3. Of course, I won each game. My question is do you think I should trade him now or hope that he is the real deal all year? Does he follow in the Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, and Olandis Gary path or does he end up like Ryan Torain, Tim Hightower, and Roy Helu?


kevin rogers [KENNER, LA]

A:

Of those guys, I’d say he’s most like Olandis Gary. Morris isn’t up there with Davis or Anderson – those guys were studs. But he’s not down with Torain, Hightower or Helu either. I think he’ll do very well this week against St. Louis.


Question 2:

Is it time to "cut bait" on Fred Jackson ?


Donald DeKeyser [GREEN BAY, WI]

A:

In general, I think so. I cut him without any hesitation in a 12-team TD-only league. I wanted to use the cap space to get Jermaine Gresham. It’s going to be at least a month before we can even talk about Jackson getting on the field. If C.J. Spiller is playing well, they won’t put Jackson back in the starting lineup or give him a full-time role. He’s not completely worthless, though. In a 12-team league with 20-man rosters, I think he’s good enough to merit a stash roster spot.


Question 3:

What would be your "fantasy" fantasy football rules? Would you allow points for receptions and receiving yards, or one and not the other? Would your D/STs get points for yards allowed and points allowed and touchdowns? I'm interested in your thoughts. It seems most leagues want to give points for everything, so ... everyone gets lots of points.


Jose Montana [ROSEMEAD, CA]

A:

I entered a weekly contest yesterday, hosted by DraftStreet.com. They assign salaries to all of the players, and then you try to put together the best Week 2 lineup you can, using a salary cap of $100,000. It’s a fun deal, and there will be a podcast on it posted today. There will be link there with instructions on how to enter. Anyway, when entering this contest, I noticed they used a scoring system for defenses I had seen before. In addition to giving points for sacks and takeaways (which is fine), they also gave the unit points for holding teams under 24 points. Basically, you start with 12 points, and you takeaway a half point every time the opponent scores. If the Steelers shut out their opponent, that’s 12 points. If they allow 3 points, they get 10.5 points. If they allowed 10 points, they get 7 points. If they allowed 22 points, they get just one point. I thought it was a pretty cool deal – cleaner than the plateau-style of scoring for defenses (with 5 points for allowing 8-13 points and whatnot). And it takes away some of the luck with defenses (it’s easier to forecast which units will allow the fewest points). As for scoring in general, I’m not a big fan of PPR leagues. I don’t see why players should essentially get double credit for receiving production – which should a running back get 1 point for a catch when he’s already getting 1 point for the 10 yards he picked up on that pass play? That’s 2 points for a 10-yard reception, when in reality a 10-yard run (worth only 1 point) is more impressive.


Question 4:

After our League's Draft, I ended up with Brady, Ridley (plus Vereen handcuff), Hernandez, and the Patriots Defense. Starting these guys in Week #1 worked out fine as the Patriots rolled over the Titans. I'm worried, however, about my team not being diversified enough on the odd weeks when the Patriots have a low-scoring game. Do you have any data on whether its better to spread out players from different NFL teams?


Andrew Paterson [FERNDALE, WA]

A:

I wouldn’t worry too much about the Patriots have down weeks. They had a three-week lull last year, where they scored 20, 17 and 20 points against the Cowboys, Steelers and Giants. But they scored 31 or more points in all but one of their other games (a 27-24 win against Miami). I say ride with the Patriot-heavy lineup.


Question 5:

What is your regular weekly publishing schedule this year?


John Roberts [Antioch, CA]

A:

We changed it a little bit this year. Tuesday morning: revised version of Cheat Sheet (showing how we would draft players if starting from scratch for the rest of the season). Includes brief notes for each team. Wednesday morning: preview of the week’s games, with written analysis for each team and stat projections/rankings for all players. Friday afternoon: re-release of the Wednesday product, with additional notes and player rankings/projections updated following Friday practices.


Question 6:

Having Fred Jackson in my keeper league I'm scrambling to find a starting running back. How confident are you that Alfred Morris will start in Washington for the next month plus?


Michael Dylkiewicz [ORLAND PARK, IL]

A:

I think Morris held serve in Week 1. He didn’t knock it out of the park, but he played pretty well. He ran for 98 yards and 2 TDs; that’s good. On the downside, he averaged only 3.4 yards per attempt. If he averages 3.4 yards again this week, Mike Shanahan will start mulling whether to plug in Roy Helu or Evan Royster. More than any other coach, Shanahan believes in riding the hot hand at tailback. Starting in Week 3, Morris will face tougher defenses. Bengals, Bucs (lousy last year, but good in Week 1), Falcons, Vikings, Giants, Steelers. Maybe Morris holds the job all year, or maybe we see Helu/Royster in October. We’ll see.


Question 7:

I'll have already completed this trade by the time you receive this, I think, but wanted your evaluation. PPR league I give up Jordy Nelson for Pierre Garcon and BJGE the law firm. I have Decker, Fitzgerald, Boldin and Streater as my other WR's with Jamaal Charles, Kevin Smith, and Donald Brown my RB's.


JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]

A:

Sounds good to me. You have a need at running back. Kevin Smith played well in Week 1, but that might be his last good game all year. He’s at San Francisco this week; he won’t do anything in that game. And then the Lions could start mixing in Mikel Leshoure a whole bunch (and later maybe Jahvid Best). Charles and Brown are OK guys, but can you rely on them every week? I don’t think so. Green-Ellis should pay immediate dividends this week, probably banging out about 100 yards against Cleveland.


Question 8:

Who is for real after week one? J Flacco, A Hawkins, Pitta, M Ryan, R Cobb, and L Moore all looked preety good. I only say Lance Moore because after 3 quarters he had a big fat goose egg but of course the 4th quarter Brees was very kind to him.


David Kennedy [STEAMBURG, NY]

A:

I’m sure Lance Moore will be just fine. He’s a big part of that offense. They’ve got Graham, Colston and Sproles, but Moore fills a role there. With Meachem gone, I imagine he’ll probably catch about 70 passes and 8 TDs. He’s a good red zone weapon. He’s caught 17 TDs and two 2-point conversions in his last 31 games.


Question 9:

First of all, thanks again for the great job you do. I took over a lousy team in a keeper, auction league, so I started behind the eight ball, but following your rankings, I think I've put together a solid team that actually led my league in scoring this week. Not a likely outcome every week, but a good start. My question is about the TE position. I went cheap and gambled on Kyle Rudolph (in part because of the value if he pans out for future years), and he did fine this week. At the same time, I'm a huge Ravens fan and would love to make that same gamble on Pitta if you think what we saw against the Bengals might be a trend. What do you think? Has Pitta emerged as the bigger TE threat in Baltimore? Or is it still too hard to know from week to week if it'll be Pitta or Dickson getting the targets?


L.B. Graham [WILDWOOD, MO]

A:

Pitta seems to be on the rise. He’s caught 4 TDs in his last eight games. They’re using him more, and they’re passing more in that no-huddle system they’ve blended in. But I have Rudolph ahead of him for now. Definitely on Sunday, with Rudolph against the Colts and Pitta in a more difficult matchup at Philadelphia. As far as you being a Ravens fan, I advise you to separate business from pleasure; I think you concentrate just on assembling the best team possible.


Question 10:

How does Chris Johnson justify his lofty ranking? Looks a lot like last year still, not finding the hole and putting up good numbers only against bad teams. Do you make anything of Seattle passing 3 times on first and goal vs Az. Seemed like a good spot to hand it to Lynch. And finally, I nervously own Alfred Morris (thanks for that). His upcoming schedule looks fantastic. I notice you project 8 games as a starter. Would Royster be a good add (Bolden is also available)?


MARK CLURE [MOUNT SHASTA, CA]

A:

The issues with Johnson, I think, have more to do with the system and how he’s been used. I have seen plays where he’s the Chris Johnson of old. The speed is still there. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer just needs to use him better. With Seattle, I expect Lynch will be fine. They have a rookie at quarterback. Lynch had a string last year with touchdowns in 11 straight games. I wouldn’t worry too much about him. Alfred Morris should be very good this week against St. Louis. Looking longer term, however, you may at some point want to carry their backup tailback. Is that Royster or Roy Helu? I’m not sure, so maybe the smarter play for now is to grab Brandon Bolden.


Readers' Comments

Question 3: What would be your "fantasy"...

Posted by Brian Barrett | Sep. 14 at 12:03 PM

I agree with Ian's take on PPR. I just don't think it makes things better. Incorporating defenses has always puzzled me as well because it's just difficult to quantify defensive performance (though that Draftstreet concept seems interesting). I've been doing this for 20 years. Pre-internet. We used to call in lineups and transactions to a dedicated phone line and the weekly league summary was done on a typewriter and mailed to us (fax was available in year two!). Over those years there have been a lot of different scoring "enhancements" that have popped up but we haven't taken the bait. We run a 14 team league with 13 man rosters, start qb,2rb,2wr,te,pk. 3 pts for TD's, rushing/rec = 1 pt for 10 yards, passing = 1pt for 20 yards. Very simple and fun enough to keep it oversubscribed.

Question 3: What would be your "fantasy"...

Posted by Jose Montana | Sep. 14 at 12:47 PM

I was actually hoping for your whole list of rules - we all know you have 100 bell-curves of performances that would lead you to see which rules really separate the wheat from the chaff. My gut tells me that eliminating/de-emphasizing points for touchdowns for all players is the way to go. Blasphemy, for sure. And there's no way to score key blocks made by wide receivers...

Question 3: What would be your "fantasy"...

Posted by Brian Barrett | Sep. 14 at 04:51 PM

Lol! Sorry to confuse you Jose. Spanish version included below: Estoy de acuerdo con Ian asumir PPR. Yo no creo que haga mejor las cosas. La incorporación de las defensas siempre me ha intrigado y porque es sólo difícil de cuantificar el rendimiento defensivo (aunque ese concepto Draftstreet parece interesante). He estado haciendo esto durante 20 años. Pre-internet. Solíamos llamar a alineaciones y transacciones a una línea telefónica dedicada y el resumen semanal liga se realizó en una máquina de escribir y enviado a nosotros (fax estaba disponible en dos años!). Durante estos años ha habido un montón de diferentes scoring "mejoras" que han surgido, pero no hemos mordido el anzuelo. Contamos con un equipo de liga 14 con 13 planteles hombre, comienzo qb, 2RB, 2WR, te, pk. 3 pts para TD, corriendo / rec = 1 pt para 10 yardas, pasando = 1 pt para 20 yardas. Muy sencillo y divertido lo suficiente como para mantenerlo exceso de solicitudes.

Question 3: What would be your "fantasy"...

Posted by MARTIN DONNELLY | Sep. 16 at 06:55 PM

Your sentiment is correct though your conclusion is lacking. I don't care how standard it is. No one should be getting 1 point per 10 yards. You want to know why you read so many asking if anyone else has gotten bored with fantasy football? Because standard scoring is so boring. Want to bring back the enjoyment of NFL football? Points @ 100 rushing+receiving yards and @ 6 receptions. Defense gets points for shutout, allowing no TDs and for giving up less points than your head-to-head opponent's DE. High performance scoring brings the NFL back into your life and shows your FF commissioner software the door.

Question 3: What would be your "fantasy"...

Posted by Jose Montana | Sep. 16 at 10:18 PM

No me gustan esos regulaciones. Creo que la mejor regulacion nesecitaria que una judadora teneria 100 yards para 1 point, porque todas las jugadoras tienen 60 yards. Espanol es mi lengua segundaria. Gracias!

Question 9: First of all, thanks again...

Posted by MIKE MADDEN | Sep. 20 at 01:13 PM

thanks again for all you help! you probably won't get this in time. But would you start Ramses Barden tonight or wait for Jennings or JJones on Monday night? Mike Madden

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