Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 21 at 11:14 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Why do you have Jahvid Best "starting" 6 games in the statistics? I was under the impression he was going to be active for 10 games. Do you think that there will be 4 games where he's going to be used very infrequently, or not at all, or hurt? I'm gauging when I should snag him off the waiver wire in my large PPR league, and I sure don't want to grab him now if you think he's not going to play until week 10 or so. His rank hasn't risen since the last preseason ranking, and he's two weeks closer to coming back.
Jose Montana [ROSEMEAD, CA]
A:
I think now is about the time to pick up Best. He’s a few weeks away from potentially been activated. It’s possible he’ll play in 11 games and make a nice impact, particularly in a PPR league. But there are plenty of uncertainties. Will they use him in Week 7 against the Bears? Maybe, but I’ve been hearing for almost a year that he would be cleared soon. When he comes back, how are they going to use him? He might be just a third-down back for them. And will he play in two games and then be sidelined for the rest of the season by another concussion? It would be reckless, I think, to pencil him in for 10 games. I think he’s more of a flyer-type pick.
Question 2:
Will the injury to Aaron Hernandez re-kindle the career of Kellen Winslow? Or is he just not good? I mean, he did get cut. But Brady & co have been known to revitalize a player or two. Should I be running to pick up Winslow?
Jason Brater [ANN ARBOR, MI]
A:
I don’t see it. I don’t think Winslow will make a Hernandez-type impact. With all of the knee issues, he’s a really old 29, and he’s got the questionable work ethic. He doesn’t like to practice. That’s why Tampa Bay got rid of him. And that’s why no other teams were interested in Winslow after Seattle cut him. I expect he’ll play a nominal role until Hernandez is back, and I don’t think he will have a chance to really learn the offense or build a rapport with Brady before the Patriots are back at full strength.
Question 3:
Over the years I've noticed a trend. You guys will talk up a player in the weekly report but then either rank them really low or not at all. This week its Andre Brown. Lots of kudos in the narrative but he's not even on the cheat sheet. I don't know how to interpret this. Please clarify for me.
JOSEPH DAVEY [EUREKA, CA]
A:
We’re doing two different products. Brown is on both of them. In the Week 3 rankings, we had him as our No. 12 running back in the standard scoring format. He was definitely going to start against Carolina, and that made him a solid option as a one-week fill-in. We had him more conservatively graded in our Tuesday product. That’s the one where we’re looking at season-long value. Sure, Brown played pretty well off the bench in the Tampa Bay game, but where will he be a month from now? David Wilson had the fumble in the opener, but he looked very good in the preseason. Definitely a talented guy. Maybe, come mid-October, it will be Wilson, not Brown, who’s in that No. 2 role. That was the thinking on Tuesday. Now that Brown played well against the Panthers, I think we can just consider him to be the No. 2 back the rest of the way.
Question 4:
I took your advice and saved some draft dollars for Pierre Garcon, who I landed on the cheap. Now he has disappeared and I have heard almost nothing about what is wrong with him or how long he is expected to be out. What do you see in his future?
Dave Jost [EUGENE, OR]
A:
He caught 4 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter of the season. Now he’s been down for seven quarterbacks with a foot injury. He’s expected to return this week.
Question 5:
I notice Chris Johnson has slid but not fallen in your rankings. It seems like he could be obtained easily in trade, but I worry about Javon Ringer taking carries or the Titans just getting fed up with Johnson. What would you think of trading Morris for Johnson? Could probably get another player in the deal with Johnson low value.
MARK CLURE [MOUNT SHASTA, CA]
A:
I’m not blaming Johnson. I don’t think he’s the problem. It’s not that he got paid, doesn’t have the same speed or simply isn’t trying. It’s the offense. It’s blocking, scheme and play calling. Now, how long until they get that fixed? I have no idea. Morris is playing well right now, so I would be nervous to give him away in a trade. If the Morris-Johnson trade is there right now, it probably will be there on Monday, after Morris puts up good numbers against Cincinnati. If you’re looking more at November and December, then you’ll have to factor in that Morris isn’t really involved in the passing game. He hasn’t caught any passes all year. Johnson gets a big edge over him in that area.
Question 6:
I have Justin Blackmon as a backup WR. So far he has done nothing. Is he still just learning the system? I'm also a little worried about his QB. What do you see going forward.
Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
They’ve thrown to Blackmon 10 times so far. He’s caught 3 for 24 yards. Hardly impressive. But there is some talent there. We saw that in the preseason. I suggest you hold onto Blackmon and see if he can turn it around in a few weeks as he adjusts to the pros and builds a better rapport with Blaine Gabbert. (Or, maybe Chad Henne winds up starting some games and that’s what sparks Blackmon.)
Question 7:
I was wondering what your thoughts were about Jamaal Charles for the rest of the season. That knee still seems to be bothering him and I'm not sure if he will be the same back as he used to be. Also, where do you think he ranks in a keeper league format among running backs?
Chris Faxel [ORLAND PARK, IL]
A:
I think there’s some value there. I thought he looked good in the preseason. I saw some explosiveness. Charles, I think, is ahead of Adrian Peterson and Rashard Mendenhall physically. Fantasy-wise, the downside is that he’ll be sharing time all year. On the off chance Peyton Hillis gets hurt, Kansas City will just plug Shaun Draughn into that rotation. Charles won’t carry at the goal line. You’re getting a time-share back. I think that puts him about 20th to 25th among running backs in a keeper league.
Question 8:
I know it is early but I was wondering who your over rated fantasy football team is for this year. The first person that comes to my mind is Chris Johnson. Last year with 1047 yds and 4 tds combined with his start this years 19 carries for 21 yards are terrible numbers for someone who generally gets drafted in the first round.
Bill Mason [HUNTERSVILLE, NC]
A:
It’s early – too early, really – to put together an All-Overated team. Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson haven’t scored yet. Cam Newton has played well in one of his three games. The Raiders haven’t been able to get Darren McFadden going. Johnson’s definitely on there right now. Wes Welker would get some votes.
Question 9:
Is it a good time to scoop up Jerome Simpson before he plays next week and what is your forecast for his season?
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
Sounds good. Simpson has some talented. He had a few good games in Cincinnati – at the end of 2010, and last year when the A.J. Green injury elevated him into a more featured role. The Vikings are high on him. Now, will he catch more passes than Harvin or Rudolph? Probably not. But I think it makes sense to bring in Simpson for a looksie. Harvin has had a lot of issues with migraines, and they’ve exposing him to extra punishment as a kickoff return and running back. If Harvin gets hurt, Simpson should be very good.
Question 10:
Do you see anything in Brady that makes you think he won't play up to a first round selection for the rest of the season?
Chris Muschon [DEWITT, MI]
A:
Back in August, we debated the value of franchise quarterbacks. It’s a passing league, and if you can get one of these quarterbacks who throws 40-plus touchdowns, that’s a good first-round pick. The danger of that strategy, of course, is that a great quarterback can turn into merely a good one very quickly. And it seems like every year some lesser quarterback puts up monster numbers. Robert Griffin III wasn’t one of the top 10 quarterbacks selected in drafts, but he looks like a top-5 guy right now. Right now, all of the first-round quarterbacks – Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Newton, Stafford – have decreased in value. Too early, though, to give up on any of those guys. The Patriots in particularly are a team that tends to get a lot better later in the year.
Question 11:
I'm in a PPR league and have already caught the injury bug at WR. I start 4 WR and I am set with Austin & Nicks, but need to pick two out of this group. Any advice would be appreciated. Choose 2 between: Jason Avant, Nate Burleson, Andre Hawkins, Andre Roberts, & Donnie Avery.
t d [new york, NY]
A:
Of that group, I think Donnie Avery is the No. 3 guy. Austin Collie has the concussion issues, so I think Avery will wind up starting most (maybe all) of the season. The way Andrew Luck is rapidly adjusting to the pro game, I think Avery will plenty of games with 5-6 receptions. With the rest of those guys, it will be a week-to-week deal, trying to find good matchups.
Question 12:
I'm performing rather well in an auction league (PPR) with Sproles and Ridley at RB. My remaining backs are: Brown, McCluster & Best (holding out hope for a W7 return). I'm stacked rather well at WR: Nicks, Maclin, Garcon, Austin, Washington and Robinson. If you had to trade one out of Maclin, Garcon and Austin, who would it be? Someone has floated a FJax for one of them to me.
Ted Adams [WALKER, LA]
A:
I wouldn’t trade any of those receivers for Fred Jackson. Those are very good players. I don’t see the point in peddling one away for a running back who’s out for another month and might be just a backup or change-of-pace guy when he returns.
Question 13:
A.Morris now a reliable play every week? Would you trade Miles Austin for Andre Johnson?
Bill Petilli [LARCHMONT, NY]
A:
I think Morris looks good for now. He’s got to just keep running hard and gaining yards. No problems with starting him this week. I see Austin and Johnson as similar in value; I have Johnson slightly higher in most formats.
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Question 1: Why do you have Jahvid...
Posted by CHARLES SAVONI | Sep. 22 at 01:31 PM
I think Andre Brown will be this year's version on the Giants, the way Otis Anderson stepped up in 1990 when Joe Morris was injured. Maybe NOT that GREAT, but he will be splitting carries with Bradshaw, and I believe Wilson will be relegated to the third option at RB for the G-men. Jerry Reese and the rest of the Giants will be patient with Wilson, not unlike the way they stuck with Ramses Barden. Wilson will eventually be an excellent player, but I don't believe this is his year.
Question 4: I took your advice and...
Posted by Brett Watts | Sep. 21 at 12:57 PM
It looks like Garcon is going to be a game time decision again. Does anyone know what type of foot injury it is? This "nagging" injury is starting to sound a bit like the situation with McFadden's mysterious foot injury last year.
Question 4: I took your advice and...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Sep. 21 at 01:29 PM
I think it is a sprained foot. I have not heard anyone use the dreaded lisfranc term. Yet. Shanahan said "it is like turf toe, but not the toe," and that is a sprain. I agree it seems like he will miss more time, but no one has given any specifics.
Question 4: I took your advice and...
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Sep. 21 at 01:35 PM
"It's kind of like when you have turf toe, but it's not the toe." Mike Shanahan on Sept. 9 describing Garcon's injury. I've seen other reports that say the injury is to the top of his foot. Hard to believe that one since he got stepped on from behind. I've also heard that his playing is a matter of "pain tolerance" so apparently he's not tolerating the pain too well. Bottom line is Shanahan is the only one who knows the real story and he's not tellin. I hope your McFadden comparison does not come true because I need him back as well.
Question 4: I took your advice and...
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Sep. 21 at 01:36 PM
I guess we were typing at the same time Andy.
Question 4: I took your advice and...
Posted by Brett Watts | Sep. 21 at 02:20 PM
Thanks Andy and Peter. Another question about a mysterious injury: What is the likely severity of Steven Jackson's groin injury? Originally it looked like he was benched and Fantasy Index pointed out that he received no medical attention on the sideline. Now he sat all week. I am not a fantasy owner of S. Jackson but I did pick up Darryl Richardson off waivers since he looked pretty good against Washington. How would D. Richardson's ranking be affected if S. Jackson sits? I would think he is worth at least a flex start even against the Bears. What do you think?
Question 4: I took your advice and...
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Sep. 21 at 03:31 PM
A story by Jim Thomas in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch sheds some light on the situation If S-Jax doesn't play. Sounds like he's headed for a GTD. Not sure about Richardson in what should be a tough matchup, but I imagine he will get most of the touches.
Question 9: Is it a good time...
Posted by Kevin Torgerson | Sep. 23 at 07:58 AM
Harvin hasn't missed a game with a migraine (or even suffered one at all, I believe) since Week 13 of 2010. It seems like a crutch argument to continue to cite that as a reason for him potentially missing time. His usage and playing style on the other hand, are more than adequate reasons.