Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 31 at 09:52 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Okay, make me feel better about my team. Fantasy Index has Travis Henry rated much higher than almost all other sources. I have been a loyal customer for years and have learned not to second guess myself or you however, I remember you also having Mike Bell rated very high last year. I have Travis Henry as my No. 1 back in both leagues.
TOM SHEAR [CHANHASSEN, MN]
A:
You'll be very happy with Henry. The Broncos still have a terrific system for running backs, and he's a much, much better runner than the guys they've put back there recently -- Mike Anderson, Quentin Griffin, Reuben Droughns and the two Bells. Henry won't make a big impact as a pass catcher, but he should rack up plenty of rushing yards and touchdowns, beginning on opening day against one of his former teams (Buffalo, which has a notoriously weak run defense).
Question 2:
I can't remember the last time that a coach was fired during a season, but it seems like a reasonable thing to consider from the standpoint that it would seriously affect a team's play. I'm considering Tom Coughlin an 85% chance for dismissal at season's end. In fact, from week 12 on he'll probably be refered to as "the embattled Giants coach" and it could be a distraction. My other two candidates for post season firing are Jack Del Rio and John Fox...both around 45%. Thoughts?
Brian Grzybowski [RICHMOND, VA]
A:
You don't see a lot of head coaches getting replaced during the season. By my count, it's happened nine times in the last 10 years.
2000 Bruce Coslet (Cincinnati) after 3 games
2000 Vince Tobin (Arizona) 7 games
2000 Norv Turner (Washington) 13 games
2001 Dennis Green (Minnesota) 15 games
2003 Dan Reeves (Atlanta) 13 games
2004 Dave Wannstedt (Miami) 9 games
2004 Butch Davis (Cleveland) 11 games
2005 Mike Martz (St. Louis) 5 games (medical leave)
2005 Steve Mariucci (Detroit) 11 games
I agree that Tom Coughlin is the coach with the best chance of getting fired before the 2007 season is even over. He's a solid coach in my opinion, but if the season heads south for the team, a change could make sense. Back in 2003, when it was apparent Jim Fassel wasn't going to be back, the Giants essentially mailed it in for the second half of the season. I don't see any other coaches with much of a chance of being replaced before the end of the season. Guys who are definitely on the hot seat would include Jon Gruden, Rod Marinelli, Romeo Crennel and Jack Del Rio.
Question 3:
Loved the mag again this year , however can you answer me something not covered in the magazine? Who do you think will be the winner of each division?
PETER GOULD [Nottingham]
A:
I consider only two teams to be shoo-ins to win their divisions: New England and Chicago. In the AFC, I believe the Jaguars could press the Colts, and the Broncos could move past the Chargers. The North appears to be the most wide-open on the AFC side; I'll go with Cincinnati edging Baltimore and Pittsburgh. In the NFC, I expect the Cowboys to overtake the Eagles in the East. I believe the Saints will hold off the Panthers in the South. And in the West, the Seahawks deserve to be slight favorites, but either the 49ers or Rams could overtake them; I'm going with the Rams.
Question 4:
My 12 team league uses Team QB. 1 pt per 20 yards passsing, 1 pt per 10 yards rushing, 3 pts for TD passes, 3 bonus pts for TDs 40 plus yards, and 3 pt bonus for 300 yards pasing. How does using Team QB affect the rankings. Thanks.
Billy LeRoy [YUMA, AZ]
A:
I'm going to leave rushing production out of it. I think that's the way most leagues do it, and you didn't mention how much a rushing TD went for anyway. Teams I expect to put up the best passing numbers (in order): Colts, Sants, Rams, Eagles, Patriots, Bengals, Lions, Cowboys, Seahawks, Packers, Steelers, Chargers, Cardinals, Bears, Panthers.
Question 5:
Holcomb to the Vikings. Strictly insurance, or a legitimate threat to take over for Jackson at some point if he struggles? Also, would Holcomb under center increase the value of Viking receivers to a respectable level?
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
I thought Tarvaris Jackson actually looked pretty good in the exhibition game up here against the Seahawks last week. He threw the ball pretty well. I was surprised how many balls he completed against Marcus Trufant, who's supposed to be the shut-down cornerback for Seattle. So in picking up Kelly Holcomb, I think the Vikings are just adding some depth and insurance. Brooks Bollinger is not a backup-quality quarterback. Should Holcomb actually wind up on the field, I would expect his passing numbers would be a little better than Jackson's. Holcomb is more experienced, and he's never been afraid to stand in there and zing it. He throws more interceptions than the typical quarterback, but he also completes more passes downfield.
Question 6:
I'm intrigued by Jason Campbell as a sleeper this year, but no one seems to be talking about him. Healthy QB's who have been in the Martz/Saunders system for more than a year have never failed to finish among the top 8 fantasy QB. The Redskins should have a solid OL, good running game, and solid receiving options in Moss and Cooley. Given JC's promising start last season (10td's against 6ints) and the fact that the entire team now has a full year in this complex system, would you agree that Campbell is a good high upside pick this year?
David Grace [Tarzana, CA]
A:
Sorry. I don't see it. I'm projecting him to be more of just a regular guy. I'm projecting 30 quarterbacks to start at least 10 games. Of that group, Campbell comes in at No. 25 in expected per-game production. I'm forecasting that he'll be at 202 total yards per game (187 passing and 14 rushing), with 18.8 total TDs if he can stay in the lineup for 16 games. But if you've got a good feeling about him, by all means grab him to be your team's backup quarterback.
Question 7:
Here you go, Ian--the perennial "double dip" question. I ended up with both T.O. and Romo--individually, they were good draft values, but I'm afraid of feast or famine. My league starts 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, and 1 WR/RB, so I might be able to absorb the slow Dallas weeks. Should I, or any double-dipper, stick w/ the same team QB/WR combo, or try to trade one of them even if I have to sacrifice a bit of value? One complication--my league awards 6 pts for all TDs, and passing yardage is very close to rush/rec, so a top QB is very important.
Craig Rinne [Gainesville (Titleville), Fla.]
A:
I wouldn't worry too much about it. I prefer to spread things out, making scores more balanced. But in this case, you've got a pair of big-time talents that aren't as valued by the rest of your league. The guys in your league apparently don't believe that Owens is going to be a top-3 receiver or that Romo is going to be one of the top half dozen quarterbacks. So I wouldn't be willing to trade either one of them away for a lesser player, just to make your team more balanced. Instead, I suggest you hang with those players for a while. After they've established that they're legit, then perhaps you can re-visit the idea of exchanging one of them for a similar talent from a different NFL team.
Question 8:
I recently drafted adrien peterson from the vikings. I read afterwards that chester taylor is still supposed to get over half the carries. How long am i gonna have to deal with this before I feel comfortable starting peterson?
James Toth [KING OF PRUSSIA, PA]
A:
I suspect those guys will share time all year. Taylor isn't as talented as Peterson, but he's a capable, experienced back. As long as he stays healthy, I expect you'll see him get 30-40 percent of the workload. That's why we don't have Peterson higher.
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Question 1: Okay, make me feel better...
Posted by Ed Klein | Aug. 31 at 06:51 PM
Ian I saw you sent me an email but I could not open - could you resend Thanks, Ed
Question 1: Okay, make me feel better...
Posted by ROBERT BRODY | Sep. 02 at 10:33 PM
Ian: We have a modified keeper draft where a team can keep any player they drafted after the 12th round of the year before in exchange for a 6th round pick this year. The player causing me the most consternation is Jon Kitna. Is he worth a 6th round pick (pick number 69) in a 12 team league? Thanks.
Question 1: Okay, make me feel better...
Posted by Daniel Burks | Sep. 03 at 06:57 AM
I think I have a solid team. I might have screwed up with my final picks. I handcuffed Henry with Sapp. That move got some laughs. I also grabbed Jacoby Jones, even though there were plenty of #2s available and a #1 (Northcutt). Apparently I fell asleep when guys were grabbing backup QBs and ended up with Culpepper. My question is: Should I retain Jacoby Jones, or drop him for Northcutt? Should I drop Sapp? My other backup RBs are A. Peterson (MIN) and Brandon Jackson. I also have no backup TE, K, or D/ST.
Question 1: Okay, make me feel better...
Posted by JERRY SWIFT | Sep. 03 at 09:59 AM
Ian: I'm in a PPR league with awards for distance TD's. I need to start 3 WR's. From Lee Evans, Joey Galloway, Braylon Edwards, Drew Bennett, Bobby Wade & Ronald Curry who do I start...{I'm afraid Denver's CB's may shut down Losman/Evans & see Curry going off against Detroit's secondary?) Jerry Swift
Question 1: Okay, make me feel better...
Posted by David Jung | Sep. 04 at 03:12 PM
I drafted Travis Henry, Ahman Green, Marion Barber, and Chris Brown as my RB's. This league only allows 4 RB's. Should I keep Chris Brown or drop him in order to pick up Selvin Young as a handcuff for Henry? Dave in SF