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Posted Oct. 05 at 11:52 AM

Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.



Question 1:

I'm in a PPR league and have been offered RG3 for Alfred Morris. Rushing and passing TDs are worth 6 points. My QBs are Peyton Manning and Ryan Fitzpatrick. My Other RBs are Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles and we start 2. Would you pull the trigger on this trade. Manning has been fine for me so far but he doesn't look the same and I have concerns as the season progresses.


BILL CARINI [PEWAUKEE, WI]

A:

It’s a possibility. With that running ability (and you go 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, no?) I see Griffin as a guy who can get you an average of 3-4 points per week at the quarterback position. Manning doesn’t run. The package of Griffin-Fitzpatrick at quarterback is better than Manning-Fitzpatrick. But you need a third running back. Foster and Charles both have byes coming up. Charles underwent knee surgery last year. Morris is a good third option (a guy who can start ahead of Charles at times). But this is a PPR format, and Morris isn’t a factor at all in the passing game. After four weeks, he’s sitting at 1 reception for minus-4 yards. That’s huge. From a gut feel, you may think Morris is a top-10 or top-15 back, but when you run the numbers and account for the absence of any receiving production, he might turn out to be more of only a top-20 or top-25 back. I suggest you work the phones. Can you bring in a third running back in exchange for Manning? If so, then I would pull the trigger. Griffin is taking way too much punishment, so there’s a real possibility he gets hurt at some point, but Fitzpatrick is good enough to hold down that backup spot.


Question 2:

You have had Dez rated way higher than Brandon Marshall before the 1st game and every week since. This week Dez #20 Brandon #34. I told you Marshall made Pro Bowl two years running and was MVP last year. You came back with a stupid statement that making MVP of Pro Bowl was like a softball game MVP by a Major League Baseball player. My point is, I hope you will move Marshall up to a top 10 receiver as he should have been all along. Bryant should never have been rated higher period, let alone 24 spots better. As the ESPN guys say, COME ON MAN! P.S. A word of advice, stop trying to rate kickers, Bailey #1 this week. What a joke!


BEN HOGEVOLL [SILETZ, OR]

A:

I remember your letter. You argued that since Marshall caught 4 TDs in the Pro Bowl, he should be ranked higher. I don’t give any weight to the Pro Bowl when grading players – not something that should move a guy up or down on a board. It’s essentially a touch football game. Not any different than a guy perhaps catching 4 TDs in one of those beach football games that DirecTV puts on everyone once in a while. But I will concede that Marshall thus far has clearly been better than Bryant. I expected more of a breakout-type season for Bryant. Occasionally he’ll make a catch that makes you think he might be another Randy Moss type guy, and there are times it looks like the Cowboys are trying to get the ball into his hands and make him their go-to, No. 1 option. In particular, look at the one-handed touchdown catch in the back of the end zone against San Diego. But it hasn’t translated into the real games, and Bryant has been plagued by drops and mental errors. Now the whole team seems to be in trouble. I will look at the rankings of those two guys. One factor that will skew things towards Bryant when comparing those two: the Cowboys have already had their bye. So when comparing them over the next 10 weeks, one guy (Marshall) is going to play 9 games, while the other (Bryant) is going to play 10. That’s a 10-percent difference.


Question 3:

I was offered Ryan Williams for Steven Jackson straight up. I am in a PPR league which we get half a point per reception. Would you pull the trigger on this trade?


DAVID BOZZELLI [INDIANAPOLIS, IN]

A:

I would keep Jackson. He will be more of a factor as a pass catcher, and he seems to be rounding into form. He ran for 76 yards on 18 carries last night against Arizona. He hasn’t scored yet, but he’s coming close. He had a touchdown nullified by a penalty against Seattle, and he another lost in Week 2 on a blown spot by the replacement officials. Contrast that to Williams. He’s running behind a really bad offensive line (Arizona’s line might be even worse than the Rams’). He’s run for 26 and 33 yards in the two games he’s started, averaging 2.2 yards per attempt. He missed most of the fourth quarter last night after suffering a shoulder injury. I’m not sure if he’ll play next week.


Question 4:

Long-time customer here, had a question. How much of your Redrafter rankings takes into consideration the fantasy playoff schedule (Weeks 14-16)? It seems the most successful years I've had are the ones where I made trades early on with those weeks in mind, knowing I had a solid enough squad to make it in the playoffs.


Mark Endreszl [NOVI, MI]

A:

Strength of schedule, at least for targeted weeks, isn’t included in the redrafter. Some owners, such as yourself, might be interested in Weeks 14-16. Others might be interested in just Week 15 or only Week 15. Others might be focused on just making the playoffs – maybe they’re more in interested in Weeks 5-13 or Weeks 5-14. Some leagues go through Week 17 and some leagues don’t even have playoffs. So we’re just looking at overall value for the remaining games. At this time of year, one issue becomes the byes. How much more valuable, do you think, is a player who’s already had his bye? Suppose, for example, you see the Steelers and Bills defenses as interchangeable. Pittsburgh has already had its bye, so it would make sense to rank it higher. But do you want it a full game higher? There are 13 weeks, so one game right now equals about 8 percent of value. Should Pittsburgh be ranked 8 percent based on having already had its bye? This isn’t just at defense, of course, it’s every position. On my board, I soften the impact of the byes by about 50 percent. When a defense (like Pittsburgh) actually has 13 games left, I change it to 12.6 games, and while changing the teams with remaining byes (like Buffalo) to 12.2 games. So on our board, it’s an advantage (on the overall board) to have the bye remaining, but just not as much.


Question 5:

Sorry if you got a bunch of similar questions, but I have Ridley in most of my fantasy leagues. Should I pick up Bolden as a hand cuff or was that a one-week thing?


Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]

A:

Both, I think. I see Ridley as the No. 1 back there, but if you own him, it makes sense to have Bolden around as a contingency plan. Maybe Ridley gets hurt or starts fumbling.


Question 6:

One WR for the rest of the year, Randall Cobb or Dominik Hixon?


Kent Bailey [PUYALLUP, WA]

A:

For this week, it’s definitely Hixon. Going forward, I would probably take Hixon, figuring that it’s possible Nicks’ foot and knee injuries will continue. If Nicks is out, Hixon could be a top-20 receiver. I don’t see Green Bay having enough injuries to allow Cobb to get in the top 20.


Question 7:

I am in a standard PPR league. I am a little weak at QB with Rivers and Dalton. I have been offered Eli for Rivers and Decker. I like Decker because I think he will benefit from a lot from the Peyton dink and dunks. I still have Jones, Nelson, Amendola, Garcon and Floyd. Or would I be better hanging with my two existing Qb's and playing the match ups?


John Wissing [Littleton, CO]

A:

If you’re starting three receivers, then I think you definitely hang onto Decker. You will need the depth. Amendola just got hurt. Garcon has the foot issue which could plague him all year. Floyd could decline if Meachem rounds into form or if Vincent Brown comes back healthy and makes an impact. If you’re starting two wide receivers, then I would lean towards making that deal.


Question 8:

Kudos on your weekly podcast. You guys put on a great show. I appreciate the expanded view on fantasy football rather than weekly start-em or sit-em type show. Keep up the great work! One question - I usually listen on my iphone with headphones and the way it is recorded puts Mark in the left speaker and you in the right. Any way you can adjust that so both voices are audible on both speakers? Just a thought.


BRYAN BERTSCH [MINNEAPOLIS, MN]

A:

Thanks for the tip. We’ll work on it.


Question 9:

Would like to start Domenik Hixon this week, but not if Joe Haden is going to cover him all game. So question is: Is this likely to happen?


JEFF FOSTER [CHICO, CA]

A:

Haden won’t play. He was suspended, recall, by the league for four games. He was able to play in the first game because he was appealing. He will re-join the team on Monday.


Readers' Comments

Question 1: I'm in a PPR league...

Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Oct. 05 at 08:24 PM

Oh ya..thanks...

Question 1: I'm in a PPR league...

Posted by Jonathan Galper | Oct. 09 at 11:57 AM

Hey ian im in a pickle...im now 1-4 and im thinking about this trade. i have matty ice, CJ?k, MOJO, Megatron, Mike wallace, jordy nelson, D. Moore, B. Tate, A. Hernandez and texans D. Looks good on paper, but im thin at RB. someone wants to trade me Foster and Demaryus Thomas for Megatron and Matty ice, i can then go pick up luck and i have rivers on my bench as well, i just need two RB's to start and CJ?K is just not trustworthy.. if i had a prayer this would be it, if you could answer please

Question 1: I'm in a PPR league...

Posted by David Barenborg | Oct. 09 at 03:54 PM

I glanced over the 9/9th Redrafter rankings and couldn't help but notice that many of your top recommendations at the beginning of the season have dropped like stones: Chris Johnson 9/3rd ranking: 4th Current Redrafter ranking: 24th. Position ranking to date: 40th Darren McFadden 9/3: 5th. Current: 17th. Position ranking: 25th Jordy Nelson: 9/3: 4th. Current: 41st. Position ranking: 36th Antonio Gates: 9/3: 4th. Current: 15th. Position ranking: 32nd. Since these were all guys you were gushing over I drafted all four within my top 5 picks. Good thing you/me don't play fantasy for a living :).

Question 1: I'm in a PPR league...

Posted by KURT SCHWARZ | Oct. 11 at 12:02 PM

Q.B. on a bye. Hasselbach or Weeden other choice. Who is better option to throw T.D.

Question 2: You have had Dez rated...

Posted by Tony T'Kach | Oct. 05 at 06:28 PM

I disagree with the 10% bonus since a player is past his bye. Each week, you need playmakers, but to lose one for a week is no big deal. It should NOT devalue the player much at all. Why? Because it's not like you're going to start that player while on bye! You'll start someone else, take your lumps (or not) and the next week you have your guy back. Please consider this on your Redrafters, because it is frustrating to see a guy jump 10 or so spots the week following his bye. The math just doesn't compute.

Question 2: You have had Dez rated...

Posted by Scott T | Oct. 05 at 08:18 PM

I dont agree it's a 10% difference. You still get to use a backup during the bye, so only difference is 10% of the difference between this player and a one week replacement. Same for injury guys. I love your ratings, but feel you over-ding the injury prone guys like Vick. Take the 2010 model of Vick with a 4 week injury. I'll take 12 games of that production and play my backup for 4 games and suggest to you that my combined QB is probably behind only the very best, top 2-3 QBs.

Question 2: You have had Dez rated...

Posted by DAVID DREIDEL | Oct. 06 at 11:45 AM

long time customer and i agree with tony and scott. the "10%" difference is kind of a pharse. you are going to plug someone into that spot during bye week, so the dropoff is what you are dealing with, not zero for the week. this would also be one of my few complaints about preseason draft rankings.

Question 2: You have had Dez rated...

Posted by GREG HOULETTE | Oct. 09 at 09:53 PM

I have been a very long time customer and have never commented before. But your answer to the question is just so crazy that I have to respond. I couldn't agree more with the rebuttals. Bye weeks should not count that much against a player. I have always noticed this inadequacy in your rankings in the past and have adjusted accordingly...but I hope you reconsider your position in the future.

Question 4: Long-time customer here, had a...

Posted by James COSTELLO | Oct. 05 at 12:11 PM

The minute the schedule is released I'm looking at the playoff weeks to determine which studs play the cupcakes. I don't play to have a respectable record, I actually expect to win it all. I've won 3 of the last 4 titles and was a Deangelo Williams injury away from currently having a 4peat. Recently tried like hell to obtain Foster to no avail....but I have Tate. The starting Houston RB in the playoffs should be fantasy gold

Question 4: Long-time customer here, had a...

Posted by Scott Anderson | Oct. 05 at 12:59 PM

Agreed, James. Along those lines, you'll hear a lot of people talk about selling high on Turner. (I think Ian has backed off on that a bit recently...) Look at the Falcons' schedule for weeks 14-16: @ CAR, NYG, @ DET. I'll take that!Plus they play NO 2x, TB 2x, WAS & OAK. Think they'll be up big & running in quite a few of those games? Me too.

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