Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 07 at 04:25 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Do your rankings make assumptions regarding league size and number of active roster spots? I ran into a tough call last night in my draft. We have 16 teams, and instead of one large league, it's divided into two separate conferences, each with their own player pool (in essence, it's two separate leagues that join together for the playoffs). Holding the 5th pick in a snake draft, I went Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, and Tom Brady. In round 4, I had the 28th overall pick, and the top two non-RB players available were Reggie Wayne and Antonio Gates. I debated for a while, but wound up sticking with the rankings and taking Wayne. Gates promptly went with the next pick. My question is, with an 8-team draft being more shallow than most leagues, would Gates (ranked 32nd overall in your latest cheat sheet) have been a better value pick, seeing as only 8 TEs and 16 WRs are starting in the league? For what it's worth, I still wound up grabbing Todd Heap and Owen Daniels, in addition to Donald Driver, Deion Branch, and Joey Galloway to fill in these two positions.
Rob Holub [CLEVELAND HEIGHTS, OH]
A:
On the rankings I'm doing, I assume it's going to be a 12-team league. If you switch to eight teams, you do see some players moving around because of the relative changes in scarcity. In this particular case, Antonio Gates moves up eight spots (in a Yardage-TD system). But Wayne is ahead of him in both league sizes, and he helped your team get off to a good start last night, grabbing a pair of touchdowns. On my boards (again, in a TD-yards format) Wayne closed as the No. 20 player overall in both of those league sizes. Gates was at No. 32 in a 12-team league, and up at No. 24 in an eight-team format.
Question 2:
I don't see the stat download section to see season projections that you mentioned in today's mailbag.
STEVE GOLDWYN [WESTON, FL]
A:
Go to the main page of the web site. Sign in (using your e-mail address and password). Then, on the right side of the page, there will be a "YOUR PRODUCTS" list, showing all of the items you are able to view/grab. Scroll down until you see "Redrafter projections (Excel format)". That will give you all of my exact numbers in an Microsoft Excel format.
Question 3:
Where would you rank Chris Henry WR Cincy in a Yardage TD league? He went undrafted in both of mine. Someone will eventually add him
PATRICK MAHONEY [CHESAPEAK BCH, MD]
A:
He definitely has value. He's tall, he's fast, and he plays on the same team as T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson, meaning he sees a lot of single coverage. I expect him to be a top 40 overall receiver during the second half of the season.
Question 4:
Ian, quick question. Our keeper league draft is tonight, so if you could respond by then, that would be great. PPR league, otherwise standard scoring. We start 2 RB, 2 WR and one RB/WR. I am keeping Larry Johnson, Westbrook, Maroney, and Lee Evans. Should I trade Maroney for Chad Johnson? Which is more valuable to you in that format as of right now?
ZACK LEAVITT [ARVADA, CO]
A:
Chad Johnson is higher on my board. Don't underestimate the impact of the added point per reception. Maroney isn't going to catch a lot of balls. He's also a lot more likely to get hurt than Johnson. On the flip side, if you keep Maroney, you needn't get worried if other teams overvalue running backs in the early rounds (and with both Maroney and Westbrook being fragile guys, it would be appealing to have both of them -- with the third guy dropping into that flex spot). But I'm leaning toward Chad Johnson.
Question 5:
Due to a mistake in the "Keeper process" Lee Evans may become a free agent in our league next week. I tried drafting him and was told he was unavailable so I picked Larry Fitzgerald (it's a PPR league). My suggestion to the commissioner is to hold a supplemental draft like they do in the NFL for late declaring collegiates. My question to you with the 13th pick in a 14 team league what round would you sacrifice a 2008 pick to grab Evans. I already have Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Vince Jackson, Santonio Holmes and Jacoby Jones. We start 2 wr 1 rb (Portis, Parker, Betts & Turner) and 1 flex.
Giovanni Alessi [HAMMONTON, NJ]
A:
My guess is that at this time next year, Lee Evans will be about the No. 10 wide receiver on most people's draft boards. How exactly that blends with your league's keeper rules and whatnot, I'm not sure.
Question 6:
Say you have drafted Cedric Benson as your #2 RB to compliment L. Maroney as the #1 RB, but were able to pick up Julius Jones late in the draft and eventually ended up with Ahman Green, too. There seems to be lots of discussion that the new coach in Big-D will use J. Jones to more of his potential and may not take away easy scoring chances. J. Jones is explosive and a somewhat more proven starter. Do you see my dilemma at the # 2 RB spot week-to-week, or, am I overly optimistic about J.Jones? What would be your strategy with those 4 running backs? What's the recommendation for week #1 starters?
TEE PEE [rochester, PA]
A:
Julius Jones is just your No. 4 guy. Maybe he'll develop into something, but you can't count on him for now. Ahman Green and Laurence Maroney, I think everyone would agree, are the guys to start in week 1.
Question 7:
Hi Ian, love the work with the magazine and website, please keep up the good work. I have a question regarding a rule change for our auction keeper league.
The plan in place at the time of the auction was to use the salaries of the players purchased and multiply them by the number of games they were used by their respective fantasy teams during the season. This new number would then be used prior to next year's auction as the player's price if he were to be kept in the traditional sense (not put into the auction). For example, my biggest purchase, Gore at $30, would cost me $360 out of a $100 cap if he played 12 games for my team this season. Players who go were not re-signed would return to the auction as restricted free agents. A player not appearing in a game would automatically be a $1 player.
After some off-season discussion, it was determined that the best way to use this rule would be to change the salary formula from salary times games played to salary PLUS games played (in the above example, Gore would be $42) with players not re-signed being granted restricted free agent status. The league unanimously approved the change, but there is a split in timing. Part of the league wants the change to occur now and be applied to next year's auction, while the other part would prefer the change be delayed one year as the rule would help some teams and hurt others, as well as presumably have had an impact on strategy during the auction that took place in August under the assumption of the "salary times games played" rule. The real issue is; is it fair to change a major rule after the draft or auction?
We would be very happy if you could provide an expert opinion to possibly help us see which way we should go. Thanks, and good luck in the upcoming season.
Tim Concannon [Norwood, MA]
A:
I don't think you can change the rules midstream. Otherwise, guys would have bid differently last year. In a keeper (dynasty) format, I like the format that you every time you buy a player at the auction, you've got the right to keep him at that salary for the next three years. At the end of that time, he becomes a "restricted free agent". Other teams may bid on him -- which accurate re-determines his value -- but you have the right to keep him by matching the highest bid. For players grabbed off the waiver wire during the season, those guys don't have three-year contracts. They go back in the pool (becoming "restricted free agents") at the end of the season. Also: for a team to retain the "restricted free agent" rights to a player, it must agree to give that player a salary at least equal to his existing contract.
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Question 6: Say you have drafted Cedric...
Posted by TEE PEE | Sep. 11 at 01:53 PM
Ian, you nailed week one with your short but accurate advice pertaining to this post. Thanks.