Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 21 at 02:26 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
What do you see happening with Vernon Davis? Granted, it has only been 2 games, but the 49ers are 2-0 without his making any impact thus far. I drafted him in 6 of my 10 leagues and am beginning to wonder if I should make a move.
Dan Stack [Highland, IL]
Ten leagues? Dude. I mean, I like fantasy football, but 10 leagues? How do you keep track of all the free agents in all of those leagues? Anywho, I think what we're seeing with Davis is that the brain isn't quite there with the body. He's probably the best athlete to ever line up at the position in terms of strength and speed, but I don't think he's got a great feel for finding the open spots in zones and stuff like that. I don't think his hands are anything special, and I haven't seen him making any good catches in traffic. If you're looking for a tight end who can pull down a ball with two guys all over him, Todd Heap would be at the top of my list. And I've seen Bo Scaife make a couple of those catches in the last month -- he might develop into a great tight end someday. But I haven't seen that with Davis. Mostly, however, Davis is being held back by being on one of the league's lesser offenses. Alex Smith has thrown for only 126 yards in each game. The NFL average is about 220 passing yards per game, but I think Smith will be down around 180 in a lot of games -- limited quarterback in a conservative scheme. Davis, with that great athleticism, should turn a couple of short catches into long touchdowns at some point, but I can't say with any certainty that he's going to be a top-10 tight end. I think you blew six draft picks.
I had Jamal Lewis on my bench this week, surprise surprise. I won the matchup so I feel good about his value this week. My question is, do I sell-high on Jamal this week? Or do I hang on to him?
Dustin Mason [Austin, TX]
I think Lewis is back. He says he's playing 12-15 pounds lighter than he has the last two years, and he says he was hampered by bone spurs in his ankle last year -- he was getting pain-killing injections before games. Regardless, I think Lewis appears to have the quickness and burst that he had back in 2003, when he ran for 2,066 yards. And I'm not basing that on the Cincinnati game, but on how he looked in the preseason. Not that he's going to start rolling off a bunch of 150-plus yard games. The Browns are a lesser team. But they've got a decent offensive line, and he's definitely the guy they're going to be feeding. I think he'll be a top-20 back. Might be a top-15 guy.
Do you care to change your analysis of Randy Moss vs. Lee Evans? I drafted Evans and passed on Moss. Right now it is a horrible decision. The Pats are full of weapons, Randy is running free, fast and clear. The Bills are awful. Evans has 4 catches and netted me 1 whole point. He is on my bench now until if/when the Bills show they can complete passes. Wes Welker is my starter along with Reggie Wayne. I'm willing to bet you a free magazine for next year, that Moss will easily outperform Evans.
You guys blew it bigtime and badly on moss.
joseph brinkos [RESTON, VA]
It looks like I've underestimated Moss (and the Patriots). It looks like they're going to flat-out roll through people this year, maybe putting up 35 or even 40 TD passes. Only 18 times in the last 20 years has a team thrown 35-plus TD passes in a season, and the Patriots look like they're going to be one of those teams. Heck, they might even go undefeated. When you have a chance to hop on that kind of wave, you do so. I am not, however, giving up on Lee Evans. I think he'll be very good as well. I think he's one of the true difference-maker receivers in this league. I imagine he'll struggle this weekend against the Patriots (the Bills haven't scored more than 1 TD in a game against New England in about three years). But from week 4 on, I expect Evans will be a top-10 receiver.
Different week, same dilemma. Assuming Chester Taylor can't suit up on game day, does Purple Jesus (Adrian Peterson) get the nod over Larry Johnson? LJ was stifled by Chicago's D, and Minnesota sports a pretty impressive run defense themselves.
Rob Holub [CLEVELAND HEIGHTS, OH]
I don't think Taylor is a factor. I expect he'll play (he practiced some on Wednesday), but even if he doesn't, the Vikings would just plug Mewelde Moore into that change-of-pace role. When Tarvaris Jackson scored his 1-yard TD at Detroit, you may have noticed, it was with Moore, not Peterson, lined up at tailback. There will be some committee there. I expect Peterson will get about 60-70 percent of the production. And that's a pretty good Kansas City defense he'll play against -- and at Arrowhead. I'm voting for Larry Johnson.
Can we stop calling LaMont Jordan an "Average Joe" now? Sure, he's slow, but there aren't more than 15 backs in the league who could have put on the show he did Sunday behind that garbage line. I have a hard time imagining Rhodes (a true Average Joe) significantly cutting into his carries. With their passing game, how do you take this guy off the field?
BILL REHOR [CULVER CITY, CA]
I'll sign off on using Jordan this week. He'll go against a Cleveland defense that's soft against the run. Long-term, though, I don't expect Jordan to continue to put up big numbers. The Raiders will run into some better defenses, and I expect them to use more of a committee approach in the future. Unlike you, I believe there are more than 15 backs out there who are better players than Jordan. In no particular order: Marshawn Lynch, Laurence Maroney, Thomas Jones, Willis McGahee, Rudi Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Willie Parker, Ahman Green, Joseph Addai, Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor, Travis Henry, Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, Marion Barber, Brian Westbrook, Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Deuce McAllister, Reggie Bush, Cadillac Williams, Edgerrin James, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Shaun Alexander. That's 28.
Is it too early to give up on Reggie Bush? The whole NO team seems shaky at best. Do you think he will come close to meeting last year's numbers, let alone bettering them.
RICHARD BURKE [MARLBOROUGH, MA]
That's the topic of the week in the ASK THE EXPERTS feature, which you can access through the main page of the website. Most of those guys figure that the Saints will come around. I think Bush, while he's not ready to become another Tiki Barber or Brian Westbrook this year, will be a good player. I think he'll catch 75-plus passes, which will help him in a lot of formats. Maybe 700 rushing yards and about 7 TDs. I don't think he's anything special in terms of punt returns.
How will the injury to Ogden affect McGahee long-term over the season?
Keith Swiniarski [FT LAUDERDALE, FL]
Ogden practiced some on Wednesday. I imagine he'll return before too much longer. I think McGahee will be fine.
12 Team League. I waited too long to draft a QB. I have Leinart and Culpepper, and already dropped McNair. My RBs are Rudi, Maroney, Jamal Lewis, and Chris Brown (and a couple of backups). My WRs are Steve Smith, Driver, Berrian, K Curtis, and Brandon Marshall. TD passes are 6 pts, just like catches and runs. We start 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and a flex player (either RB or WR). I like to use 3 RBs, because more touches. Looking to trade for another QB. In your opinion, Driver for Eli Manning? The guy with Eli seems interested.
Charles MAEL [CHESTNUT HILL, MA]
That looks like a fair deal. Driver is more valuable than Manning, but you do have a surplus of wide receivers and a need at quarterback. So perhaps you do that deal. Particularly with the 6 points for TD passes. Keep in mind, however, that some starting quarterbacks will get hurt. If you wait a couple of weeks, you might be able to solve your quarterbacking problem on the waiver wire. With the number of hits Jon Kitna and Marc Bulger are taking, it could be only a matter of time before J.T. O'Sullivan and Gus Frerotte are the starters for those teams. And Kellen Clemens will replace Chad Pennington before long.
Question 3: Do you care to change...
Posted by John Boyd | Sep. 23 at 08:12 AM
I passed on Moss for Lee Evans as well, and simply stated, Evans is killing my fantasy team. He keeps posting goose eggs and I keep loosing even though I have Romo, Travis Henry, Berrian, Jamas Lewis, Duece McAllister and Cedric Benson.
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.