Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 28 at 12:42 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I've been offered LJ and Schaub for Jamal Lewis and Favre. This guy's a huge Packer fan and he wants "his guy" Favre. While LJ hasn't done a thing yet (with the key word being "yet") should I pull the trigger? My starting QB is Palmer and my other starting RB is Westbrook. Thoughts?
Troy Hopper [MOORESTOWN, NJ]
A:
I'd take on Johnson. He's struggled, but he's definitely one of the league's elite runners. I imagine he'll come around before long and tend to be a top-10 back in most weeks. He's one of the few backs around who'll account for 85-plus percent of his team's rushing yards and score virtually all of his team's rushing touchdowns. Part of his struggles have been due to scheduling. Minnesota has the best run defense in the league. Chicago is very good against the run. And Houston -- yes, Houston -- I believe also might wind up in the top half dozen against the run. Now, things don't get any easier for Johnson in the near future. San Diego and Jacksonville the next two weeks, well, there are two more really good run defenses. But you can't keep a talent like Johnson down forever. And there's no doubt that Kansas City is champing at the bit to get him rolling. They gave him 24 carries last week against Minnesota, even though he was consistently getting hit in the backfield. Lewis is nice runner, but I'd do the deal and get Johnson. He'll be more productive as a runner, and he should be a lot busier than Lewis as a receiver as well.
Question 2:
Hi there, I have Drew Brees and J.P. Losman. 12-team league. What do you think of Griese this week when the only other option is a guy like Matt Schaub, David Carr, Trent Green or bums like that?
WILL SAYRE [W SACRAMENTO, CA]
A:
I just got off a conference call with Kevin Curtis and Donovan McNabb. They say not to hesitate to start any quarterback who's playing against the Lions.
Question 3:
Normally I don't submit lineup questions, but I just can't make the right read with my running backs. I have the highest point scorers on the bench every week. My running backs are Brian Westbrook, Travis Henry, Jamal Lewis, Marion Barber, and Clinton Portis. What I thought was an advantage has been disastrous. Which of these guys do I play no matter what and which guys do I play based on match-ups? Any insight would be helpful.
Cody Hager [ALOHA, OR]
A:
That's part of having a talented roster. There will be weeks where you'll pick the wrong guys. For this weekend, please put me down for Barber -- gotta get a piece of that putrid St. Louis run defense. And I can't leave Westbrook on the bench (if it's clear that's he's playing).
Question 4:
The random nature and dumb luck pitfalls of the head-to-head format has finally taken its toll on our league after 11 years. About every other year we were seeing one of the top-scoring teams miss the playoffs.
We decided on a format this year that I thought I would share in case there are other leagues out there who are similarly frustrated. We still play 14 head-to-head games like always, only now we play two additional "games" that are decided strictly on total points. Teams will earn a victory in "game 8" if they are in the top half of the league in scoring through the first half of the season with the remainder of the league receiving a loss. Same goes for "game 16" when the second half of the season is accounted for.
These two additional games in the standings should make a huge difference by season's end and go a long way towards basing postseason participation on merit over chance. As a bonus you even get the feel of an NFL 16-game schedule.
Kevin Witt [Haymarket, VA]
Question 5:
I know you said you were still high on Lee Evans even though he is off to a slow start, but now with Losman out for a few weeks and the rookie in, do you still think Evans is worth starting over guys like Bernard Berrian or Ronald Curry?
MICHAEL KOLTON [GREEN BAY, WI]
A:
Evans is a special talent. Maybe one of the top 5 talents at wide receiver in the NFL. I still have interest in him. He's one of the few guys around who can consistently score touchdowns from 40-plus yards. But the Bills are struggling right now, and now they're working in their rookie quarterback. No way, therefore, would I start Evans this week ahead of Bernard Berrian, who's also a very good player and is matched up against arguably the worst pass defense in the entire league. In that NBC Sports $100,000 game, where you get to use each player only once during the entire season, I've got Berrian as one of my three receivers this week. Evans versus Curry (at Miami), I consider to be more of a tossup. The Bills have a rookie at quarterback, but Evans is still their clear No. 1 receiver, and that's not a good defense he'll be facing.
Question 6:
Hey Ian. Need your help with a Commissioner issue. In one of my leagues I have a co-Commissioner and he added Brian Leonard with his Commissioner privileges at 8:59AM, one minute before free agents can be picked up by everyone. Someone in the league noticed and now wants to know what should happen? What should happen to Brian Leonard (we do not user any waiver wire methods in the league)? What should happen to the co-commish? Any help would be appreciated.
Marco Tavares [TEWKSBURY, MA]
A:
So it's just a free-for-all scrum at 9 am? With the first guy who can click the button after 9:00.00 getting the coveted free agent? That doesn't seem like a good system. No so much for Brian Leonard, who's not going to make a big impact, but for other players in the future. You should get that fixed. In this case, I would survey to see if there were other owners who were hovering at their keyboards, waiting to bid on Leonard. Perhaps randomly assign Leonard to whatever teams were trying to get him.
Question 7:
I'm in a huge league and I have Tenn RB C Henry as a dead spot on my roster. Do you think he will get some PT this season? After all, he was the 4th RB drafted & a 2nd round pick. Yes, C Brown has started off hot, but he always does and either cools off or gets hurt. Otherwise, I might need to scoop up someone like C Perry CIN in a few weeks. Thanks.
Paul Bakalars [LA CRESCENT, MN]
A:
I imagine that either Chris Brown or LenDale White will get hurt at some point. At that time, Chris Henry will be activated and will be the No. 2 back there, getting a half-dozen touches per game. I thought he looked pretty good in the team's first preseason game. Ran angry.
Question 8:
Ian, as a Travis Henry owner (thank you very much) I am a little more concerned about Sapp being a goal-line vulture. You set my mind at ease about the 4-yard TD plunge in the early goings of last week's game, but made no mention of the 3rd and 1 carry Sapp got late in the game -- in which he converted no problem. I believe Sapp was a single back in that one. I hope I'm wrong but it looks like Sapp might be the goal-line back.
BRYAN BERTSCH [MINNEAPOLIS, MN]
A:
I wouldn't worry about it. The Broncos use a few more change-up plays around the goal line than most teams -- play-action flips, quarterback bootlegs and quick-hitters to fullbacks -- but Travis Henry is their guy. He should score 75-plus percent of Denver's rushing touchdowns, and that's a pretty good team.
Question 9:
In our dynasty league, a recent trade included a conditional draft pick for next year's draft. Team A gets an 8th-rounder from Team B, but that pick elevates to a 5th-rounder if Team A fails to make the playoffs in 2007. Sort of a "consolation prize" deal, I guess? Anyway, my concern with this trade is that it opens the door for possible game-throwing late in the season.
ADAM HOLTZ [Rochester, MN]
A:
Agreed. I don't think you want to put teams in the position where it would perhaps benefit them by losing late in the year. Then again, the NFL kind of has that system, doesn't it? The team with the worst record gets to select first in the draft. So it might not be that big of a deal.
Question 10:
Who would you recommend as the best waiver pickup this week, Brian Leonard or Ron Dayne?
TIM MERLINO [ANN ARBOR, MI]
A:
I actually think Dayne could be fairly productive against Atlanta. The Falcons have been pretty soft against the run so far, letting Carolina run for about 175 yards last week. Dayne, however, probably will get only 55-60 percent of the workload. I don't believe Ahman Green (knee) will play, so Samkon Gado should be that second back, getting 10-15 touches. Gado, as you may recall, had that surprising breakout game at Atlanta two years ago, running for 103 yards and scoring 3 TDs in a Green Bay win. It's possible he'll outproduce Dayne; he's faster. In pondering your issue (or Dayne versus Leonard) another factor to keep in mind is receiving production. Dayne won't catch many passes (he might not catch any). Leonard is a relatively safe choice to catch 5-6 balls for about 40 yards. And Leonard will be more of a full-time player, making him the better choice in a lot of fantasy formats.
Question 11:
We are adding special team return yardage to each individual player's performance in our league.
We also want our starting lineups to NATURALLY equate kick and punt return players to other players such as receivers and running backs; therefore, an owner must make a decision as to whether or not to start a player that gets kick and or punt return yardage and perhaps some rushing and or receiving yardage as well - to other players that just get receiving and or rushing yardage.
Our rushing and receiving yardage is worth 0.165 points per yard gained.
We have set our kick return yardage at 0.095 points per yard gained and our punt return yardage at 0.33 points per yard gained.
We also give 6 points per rushing or receiving TD and 12 points per kick or punt return TD
Considering that players will get any yardage they gain throughout a game, whether it be a combo of rushing, receiving, kick return and or punt return yardage, do you think this is a balanced percentage to give to kick and punt return yards? (and not to mention TD scoring?)
Wiliam Gruzenski [Apopka, FL]
A:
Sounds like you're going to make return yards worth about half as much as yards from scrimmage. Fair enough, I suppose. Keep in mind, though, that when you say a return touchdown is worth 12 points, it's actually worth more. When Devin Hester returns a punt 80 yards for a touchdown, you get the 12 points, plus the 80 yards. That's a big play. I'd have some interest in Hester. I'd also have some interest in Ted Ginn Jr.; he's going to play as a receiver and also return KOs and punts (Ginn had a good kickoff return against the Jets). Players who are currently returning both kickoffs and punts also include Yamon Figurs, Eddie Drummond, Dante Hall and Allen Rossum. Regular field players who are returning kicks regularly include Patrick Crayton, Nate Burleson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Jerious Norwood.
Question 12:
What's your long-term prognosis for Steven Jackson? I'm in a salary cap league and he'll be costing me about $30/wk ($100 cap) to sit the bench while he's hurt. I'm thinking of dumping him & Cadillac for Willis McGahee & Ced Benson. This would also free up about $7 in cap space for me. I also have AP on my roster at a HUGE value price (he's going no where). Thanks for all your help! You do great work!
Corey Gaulrapp [ABERDEEN, SD]
A:
Jackson is going to miss 2-3 games, but once he returns, you may (probably will) regret releasing him. McGahee, to me, doesn't seem to be one of the league's elite running backs. I don't see the size, speed or tackle-breaking ability. And Benson is playing poorly enough for the Bears that he might be benched at some point in favor of Adrian Peterson (not the Oklahoma Adrian Peterson but the Georgia Southern Adrian Peterson).
Question 13:
I have D.J. Hackett, Jacoby Jones, and Santana Moss in a keeper league and must cut one of them next week. Of the 3, which one would you drop?
DENNIS RUEBEL [GREEN BAY, WI]
A:
I'd cut Hackett. He'll probably be out for another month or so, and I don't think he's going to do anything this year. You'll be able to get him back if you want.
Question 14:
Ian, Who do you think the best option is for insurance on Jamal Lewis? Wright or Harrison? Thanks.
RICK CARPENTER [CAMARILLO, CA]
A:
Definitely Wright. Harrison is just an undersized third-down back. They haven't even been activating him for games.
Question 15:
Chester Taylor - Dynasty League. We keep all our players from year to year. What do you think the longer term value is of Taylor? He's currently taking up a roster spot but maybe he should be cut to work the hot running back/injury starter of the week.
DAVID YOUNG [N HOLLYWOOD, CA]
A:
There certainly is a value in sifting through the trash can, popping various players onto your roster for one- and two-week tryouts. Some of those guys will wind up being pretty good players -- maybe the starter ahead of them gets hurt or whatever. Taylor's only value, in my opinion, is as the back who'll start in Minnesota if Adrian Peterson gets hurt.
Question 16:
Ian I have a question about one-week fill-ins now that we're starting the bye weeks. One 12-team league I'm in only allows 4 reserves so I have only Wes Welker, Warrick Dunn, Jay Cutler and Michael Turner as backups. My tight end, Chris Cooley, is on a bye this week. Should I pick up a tight end just for this week (Owen Daniels is available) and drop Turner or just sacrifice the points at the tight end position? I'm a little thin at running back with my starters either injury prone (Brian Westbrook) or inconsistent (Jamal Lewis) so I'm hesitant to drop Turner as a Tomlinson injury or trade would make him a starter on my team.
GREG KLINGAMAN [ATLANTA, GA]
A:
You can't cut Turner. He'd be snapped up. You might, however, be able to sneak Warrick Dunn through waivers. He hasn't really done much so far, and he's sharing time with Jerious Norwood. As I see it, your options are to either make a trade, release Dunn, or simply take a donut at the position.
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Question 4: The random nature and dumb...
Posted by TERRY CAMP | Sep. 30 at 06:54 AM
That's the most rediculous thing I've ever heard. Our league has been in existance since 1989 and we also play 14 head-to-head games. Giving extra wins to teams just because they score good simply does not compute. Who really cares how many points you score durring the season if you can't score one more than your opponent each week. I've been the 'victim' of the situation you're talking about and I simply chalk it up to 'not winning the big game'. If you can't win, you don't belong in the playoffs. The only score that counts is GAME DAY.
Question 4: The random nature and dumb...
Posted by MARK AISENBREY | Oct. 02 at 09:27 AM
Terry - I don't think the idea is dumb because you have no control over how many points your opponent scores. There is no defense in fantasy. The only thing you can control is scoring as many points as possible. Awarding the teams that do that ahead of the teams that have more luck is perfectly logically. You're just talking smack here.
Question 4: The random nature and dumb...
Posted by Troy Hopper | Oct. 02 at 12:54 PM
I don't like your format, but if your league's GMs voted in favor of it, I guess you'd better figure out a way to load up prior to weeks 8 and 16. What I don't like is "we still play 14 head-to-head games". In our league of 12 teams and two divisions, we play 13 head to head games. We chose that format because we need 3 weeks in total to complete the playoffs and a lot of NFL teams sit their stars in week 17. So we plan our Superbowl to occur in week 16. As an alternative to your "two additional games" and your dilemma of "about every other year we were seeing one of the top-scoring teams miss the playoffs", next year you can see if your fellow GMs would go for what we do. 6 Teams make the playoffs that are held beginning in week 14. The 2 division winners get automatic bids into the playoffs and 1st round byes. One of the 4 remaining slots goes to the team that scores the most points during the season (if that's not already one of the teams that won their division). The other spots are taken up by the teams with the next best records regardless of division. And then tie breakers apply from there if needed.
Question 4: The random nature and dumb...
Posted by TERRY CAMP | Oct. 02 at 01:51 PM
Mark ... I'm not talking smack at all. Why in the world should a fantasy team get 'extra' wins just because they score big? I've read your reasons but they still just don't compute. We've all heard the "On any given Sunday" routine. Your plan penalizes upsets. I'm one of our top 3 scorers almost every year. That doesn't mean I score big every week. And when I do score big, that doesn't mean somebody else shouldn't have a bigger week and beat me. We see it all the time in the NFL. Why not in fantasy? For that matter, why even play the games? Just draft and then at the end of the season, total up your stats and you have your SB winner. It's your league so don't think I'm trying to change your mind. It just won't be happening in our league. Ya win or ya lose. There are no gimme's or muligans. Terry Camp ... Jacksonville,Fl
Question 4: The random nature and dumb...
Posted by Jacob Wilson | Oct. 03 at 09:56 AM
You might also consider making the last couple of playoff spots "wild-cards", determined by overall points rather than by wins/losses. That might be simpler than what you've currently got.
Question 4: The random nature and dumb...
Posted by Kevin Witt | Oct. 05 at 09:16 PM
You guys are missing the point. Sure, we could expand the playoffs and smiply include the higher scoring teams but the system we have is putting these teams in the playoffs INSTEAD of the lesser teams, not in ADDITION to. Fantasy is such a crap shoot on a week to week basis and the last thing any league should do is expand the playoff field,,,only the best teams should have a crack at the end of the year. And for those who still are dillusional and think these games are actually played on the field and this "any given Sunday" stuff, just keep in mind one thing. This head to head format we all enjoy has the potential, at least in theory, to end up with the league's second worst scoring team to be undefeated by season's end. Remember, all you have to do is outscore one team each week.
Question 9: In our dynasty league, a...
Posted by MICHAEL BAKER | Oct. 02 at 12:25 PM
We've got a 10 team KEEPER league. To eliviate "throwing" games for draft position, we give the playoff teams Positions 7, 8, 9 & 10. The other 6 teams draw from a hat their draft position. This eliminates throwing the games. Todd from Ohio
Question 13: I have D.J. Hackett, Jacoby...
Posted by Kevin Witt | Sep. 29 at 08:40 AM
I have Hackett too. That assessment is a DAGGER.