Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Oct. 19 at 10:54 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
How can you love Kitna (listed at No. 5) and also love the Bucs Def this week (No. 2)? Please explain the logic here.
Joe Cartan [San Francisco]
A:
That's not a typo. The Lions rack up plenty of passing yards and touchdowns, but they also serve up plenty of interceptions and sacks. That's what happens when a team starts passing on every down. Detroit currently is averaging 296 passing yards per game, No. 2 in the league. And it's tied for 7th with 9 TD passes. Those are good numbers. But the sacks and interceptions tend to be there as well. Detroit allowed 63 sacks last year, 14 more than any other team. And after five games this year, they're already up at 28 sacks, 6 more than anyone else. Since Mike Martz took over, the Lions have thrown 30 interceptions in 21 games. That's just kind of how that offense goes. It's what Buddy Ryan would call a Chuck-and-Duck system. That's why you'll tend to see whatever defense lines up against Detroit placed highly in our rankings.
Question 2:
A few weeks ago, I picked up Selvin Young. Should I trade C. Portis for T. Henry, or just wait it out?
MICHAEL HAMER [SPRINGFIELD, PA]
A:
A reasonable idea, but I think you should hold off. I think Portis will outproduce Henry this week. Portis is at home against Arizona, while Henry is playing Pittsburgh. The Steelers are really good against the run, and they did an excellent job against Denver's scheme last year, limiting Mike Bell to 28 yards on 17 carries. So hold off for now, then re-visit the idea next week. Henry will have the edge over Portis in week 8. In week 9, they appear to have similar value. But the longer you wait, the more Henry's price will decline.
Question 3:
I'm shopping Steven Jackson around, and I'm looking at some interesting offers. I've been offered McNabb and Jerry Porter for him, but I know he has more value than that. Can you give me some insight to what his value is right now? And what it will be once he's back healthy?
Brian Smith [OAK LAWN, IL]
A:
He's doing some work in practices now, but he's not going to play this week. Probably won't play next week against Cleveland, either (which is a downer, since the Browns can't defend the run). I think you're looking at Jackson coming back, and at a true 100 percent, following the team's week 9 bye. I expect him to average about 100 yards (80 rushing, 20 receiving) in the final eight weeks of the season, with maybe 5 TDs. I think that makes him about the No. 20 back on the board right now.
Question 4:
Hi Ian: This question centers around 1st and 2nd year quarterbacks. Brett Favre is currently my starting QB and on my roster are Kellen Clemons and JaMarcus Russell. Of all the up and coming QBs out there who are not established yet, who would be your top choice. Thanks.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
Jay Cutler looks pretty good to me. Dynamite arm, and he's in a good system with good coaching. I'd put him slightly ahead of the other quarterbacks who were selected in the first round in 2006, Vince Young and Matt Leinart (though those guys should be fine pros as well).
Question 5:
Do you think there is a possibility with the injuries to the Patriots RBs that they could coax Corey Dillon to play for them for the rest of the season.
RICHARD BURKE [MARLBOROUGH, MA]
A:
A clever idea, but I doubt it will happen. If Dillon wanted to play, I think he would have done so when the Packers, Titans and Bucs tried to get him to play. I think he likes being retired. Plus, I'm not sure the Patriots would have any interest in him. He appeared to have lost a lot of speed last season.
Question 6:
Hi Ian: I am about to pull the trigger on a major trade. It will be as follows: I get Marc Bulger and Terrell Owens. The other team owner gets Torry Holt, Santana Moss and my 1st rd pick next year. This is a 10 team keeper league and 1 pt per reception. I had talked about this trade earler when it was Holt for Boldin. Looking long term I have always been a Bulger fan and when Jackson gets back it should take the pressure off of Bulger. It bothers me that Owens will be 34 this year and Holt only 31 from a keeper standpoint. So what am I missing and making a mistake. Thanks.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
I wouldn't do that trade. Owens is an older guy. And is he slipping? He's gone four games in a row without scoring, and he has only one 100-yard game this year. He's been dropping some balls for the last two years. I expect he'll put up big numbers this weekend against Minnesota (the Vikings rank last against the pass), but I wouldn't want to take on Owens in a keeper format. And Bulger is just a quarterback, which is one of the lesser fantasy positions. Who'll be coaching that team next year? And what kind of system will they run? I don't see Owens and Bulger as promising enough that I'd want to part with Holt and a valuable first-round pick.
Question 7:
Who will have the greater fantasy career, Maurice Jones-Drew or Calvin Johnson? I'm in a TD-only league where we retain 12 players. I took Johnson expecting to have him forever but was offered Jones-Drew straight across last week. I turned it down, thinking I'd regret giving up Johnson in a couple of years & lost to the team I was tied with for division lead by one point. My RBs (start 1 or 2) are Rudi Johnson & Maroney. My WRs are R. Wayne, Johnson, Bowe, Galloway & Jennings (start 2 or 3). The best RB available is D. Ward. Should I make the trade? Johnny Bennett, Chino, Ca.
JOHN BENNETT [CHINO, CA]
A:
Jones-Drew and Johnson have similar value in a dynasty-type format. If you're looking at just the next two years, I think you definitely go with MJD. Running back is the more valuable position, and he's pretty good. Explosive. If you're looking at the next 8-10 years, than probably Johnson. He should have a lot of top-10 years for you at that position, and he'll be in the league long after Jones-Drew is gone. You're fairly well stocked at wide receiver, with some young guys like Bowe (who might be better than Johnson) and Jennings, so I think I'd pull the trigger on that deal. But I'm a win-now guy.
Question 8:
I have a solid team but an uncertain QB situation. I am in a standard yardage and TD (TD = 6 points) league with playoffs. I have Griese and Warner as my QBs currently and like their upcoming schedule, but I can also pick up Garrard, Cutler, Young or Garcia. I can only carry two, what should I do?
Paul Karrmann [CHESTER SPRGS, PA]
A:
Lots of nice options. Put me down for Garcia for this week. But if I'm carrying two for the rest of the season, Garrard and Cutler are the two I'd go with.
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