Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Nov. 09 at 09:43 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Every time a good team is going against a very bad team (Rams, Dolphins) I feel that the easy assumption is that they will win in a blow out but focus on the run. Is there any way to analyze how good QBs have done against the really bad teams this year. I am deciding on whether or not to trade for Roethlisberger since he is up against the Rams in week 16 (fantasy super bowl) .
Rob Shohet [NEW YORK, NY]
A:
Rushing production seems to be more easily predicted than passing. There's a strong correlation between teams winning games and running the ball -- they tend to call more running plays when they're ahead, perhaps, while passing teams tend to call off the dogs when they've got a lead in the second half. Purely in fantasy terms, the pass defenses of the winless Dolphins and rams have been average this year. The Rams are allowing 217 passing yards per game, with 12 TD passes in eight games. Miami is at 197 passing yards per game, with 15 TDs. Statistically -- fantasy stats, that is -- some of the best pass defenses this year have come from non-descript teams -- Raiders, Panthers, Cardinals, Falcons. But the worst run defenses are all teams that also have problems in general: Dolphins, Raiders, Jets, Broncos, Rams, Bears, Bengals.
Question 2:
Hey Ian, I am in a deep PPR league and need a free agent running back. Which of these guys do you think are the best short-term and long-term prospects - Derrick Ward, Justin Fargas, Jason Wright, Ryan Grant, or Echemandu?
Thanks
Don Neve [ARPIN, WI]
A:
I don't think any of those guys will be starting a year from now. Probably none of them will be in the league three years from now. But if I had to pick one, it would be Adimchinobe Echemandu. I liked the way he ran in the San Diego game. He's got some size, and he's got a burst. Very impressive. He might develop into something. As for this month, Huggy Bear would have to be your guy. He's been playing well off the bench all year, and now the Raiders have made him their starter. He ran for 104 yards on Sunday against the Texans. And two of the team's next four games are at home against bad run defenses -- Bears and Broncos.
Question 3:
I have dropped out of playoff contention in an auction based keeper league. I am now looking to load up on cheap prospects for next year. Will any of the following players end up in positions to significantly increase their production next year? Marion Barber/Julius Jones, Tatum Bell, Jacoby Jones, DeShaun Foster, any Atlanta wide receiver.
JASON WILHELMSEN [SMYRNA, GA]
A:
Julius Jones is in a contract year. I expect he'll look into signing with another team. He's not happy about sharing time with Marion Barber and getting pulled at the goal line. But I don't think any team will be interested in signing Jones to be their No. 1 back. I think he'll either split time with somebody, or settle in as a backup. … I don't think Bell has any value. Doesn't have enough pop between the tackles. He'll probably be a No. 2 somewhere, but even that's not certain -- he's a No. 3 right now. … DeShaun Foster, in my opinion, is at best a below-average No. 2 back. I'm shocked that he's starting for the Panthers this year. That team probably will get a new coach next year -- Bill Cowher is the frontrunner -- and one of the first things that new coach will probably do is show Foster the door. … So I suggest you ignore those running backs and focus on the wide receivers. Roddy White looks like the real deal. I'll be surprised if he isn't on a roster in your league. He has the necessary speed and playmaking ability, and he's having a pretty good year -- he's on pace to finish this season with 72 receptions and 1,170 yards. And as a sleeper, I like Jacoby Jones. He looked like a potential big-time receiver in the preseason, scoring 2 TDs on punt returns and 2 TDs on receptions. He has the speed, and he has the build you're looking for -- 6-foot-2 and 210.
Question 4:
Hi Ian: I am considering trading Reggie Wayne for the two Dallas RBs. With the injury to Larry Johnson I have a deal on the table. My team has Westbrook and Johnson as the two principal RBs in a point per reception league. I have been a huge fan of Marion Barber as I think he is the most underrated RB in football. Jones is a good RB who I think is an unrestricted free agent next year and my hope is that Barber has the job to himself. If I trade Wayne it will leave me with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans as my principal WRs in a dynasty league. This is a keeper league in which I have a 7-1 record so is it worth the risk to acquire these two RBs? Thanks.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
Julius Jones should void his contract and become a free agent, but he's not a factor in this decision. It's Wayne for Barber. Barber is a very good back. No argument there. But that's a pretty price to pay for him. Peyton Manning is going to be a great quarterback for years and years, and Wayne could be his No. 1 receiver for a long time (Marvin Harrison is 35 years old, and with his recent knee problems, he seems to be on the decline). I'd be torn between Barber and Wayne. I'm sure some readers will chime in with their opinions.
Question 5:
In re-reading the 1996 Fantasy Football Index recently, I see that your number 45 wideout was Deion Sanders. Care to explain?
CHRIS LOZO [BUFFALO, NY]
A:
That was a touchdown-only format. The Cowboys intended to use Sanders as a situational receiver that year. The thinking was that he might return a punt or two for a touchdown, perhaps catch a few long touchdowns and maybe do some stuff with short catches and reverses. Maybe return an interception for a touchdown as well. Sanders did play extensively as a wide receiver that year, catching 36 passes, but he caught only 1 TD.
Question 6:
I'm disappointed in your rankings for Marques Colston. I am so sick of Steve Smith. Smith has no one that can play QB. Fantasy Index should flip flop the rankings -- make Colston in the place of Smith. Maybe I would have won this week if i would have started Colston.
MICHAEL RUCKER [LINCOLN PARK, MI]
A:
I'm not giving up on Smith just yet. I want to see what he can do with Vinny Testaverde at quarterback. Testaverde may be just days short of his 44th birthday, but he throws downfield a lot better and more decisively than David Carr. Carr, everyone can see, just doesn't have it. In the one game Testaverde started this year, at Arizona, Smith caught 10 passes for 132 yards. Colston plays on a better team, but he's not a clear No. 1 receiver. He's struggled with drops this year, and they've got a lot of other receivers. I'm not sure if Sean Payton was trying to make a point, but Colston actually hasn't even started either of New Orleans' last two games.
Question 7:
I am 8-1 so far, but am facing a RB quandary. I have L.J. (might be out for the year), S. Jackson, Fargas, Priest Holmes, and Michael Turner. I'm set everywhere else (Tom Brady, Wayne, Burress, Welker, etc) My question is: I have been offered LenDale White for my 2nd round pick next year (which will be pick 18-20 .. but we keep 4 players, so really pick 58-60) Is this a no-brainer, should I pull the trigger?
MIKE GEORGE [WAUKESHA, WI]
A:
I would do the deal. You're 8-1 and in the hunt for the Big Enchilada. I think you bring in LenDale White and hope he helps you to the championship. It's not a big price to pay for him -- a sixth-round draft pick, essentially. White has been playing well recently, and his remaining schedule is extremely favorable. Over the next seven weeks, Tennessee's opponents are allowing (on average) 131 rushing yards per game, 2nd-most in the league.
Question 8:
What do you make of the Larry Johnson/ KC running back situation? I have heard reports varying from 'out for the year', to just 'doubtful for this week'. I picked up Priest Holmes, but is he even worth playing yet? Also how would a foot injury like this affect LJ's keeper value?
TAKI ZAMBARAS [COATESVILLE, PA]
A:
I'm waiting to hear on Johnson. He's definitely not going to play this week. Beyond that, I'm not sure. It wouldn't surprise me if this is the type of injury that keeps him out for about a month (maybe even longer). But I don't expect it to affect him at all for 2008.
Question 9:
Now that I'm through my troublesome bye weeks, I want to make sure I have all my handcuffs in place for the stretch run. I have the Tomlinson/Turner combo in place, so I'm good there. I'm not sure what to do about Marshawn Lynch, though. Should I even bother with Dwayne Wright (or Anthony Thomas), or will the Bills pretty much shrivel up and die if Lynch goes down?
Carter Maxwell [MINNEAPOLIS, MN]
A:
Thomas is still listed as the team's No. 2 tailback, but Wright seems to have passed him. He's been getting a few carries off the bench each game, and when Lynch got banged up in the Jets game, Wright came in and got 12 carries. If Lynch gets hurt, I would guess that Wright would be their main back, with Thomas maybe getting a third of the work. I don't think either of these guys, however, would make much of an impact as a starter.
Question 10:
With the regular season winding down, time to think about what would kill you, i.e. a No. 1 pick getting hurt. With that in mind, I have Addai but not K. Keith. I do have Turner on my bench as I see him as a stud should LT go down. But what about Keith. I have a stable of RBs (Lynch, K. Jones, Jacobs, Jamal and Selvin) would it be wise to dump one of these guys now to get Keith, or I could wait until next week and get him when I have a roster spot open due to bye week kicker in place?
TROY CURRY [DRIPPING SPGS, TX]
A:
Keith definitely should be on a roster. But I figure if he's available right now, chances are he'll still be available in a week. Unless you can pull off some kind of two-for-one deal to free up a roster spot, I suggest you just wait.
Question 11:
I am down to one TE, Todd Heap. Should I waive Heap, and pick up M. Pollard who is available?
PHILIP HOOD [PORTSMOUTH, NH]
A:
Heap (hamstring) is more likely than Pollard (knee) to play this week. Better player, too.
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Question 2: Hey Ian, I am in...
Posted by JAMES NUNZIATO | Nov. 09 at 11:44 AM
2RB/2WR or 1RB/3WR. Should I use Jamel Lewis as a #2RB or B. Berian as a #3WR, with Jacobs/Fitzgerald/Driver? Or should I just drop Berian and pick up D. Patten or M. Clayton? Thanks