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Weather definitely plays a factor. As it gets colder and windier, teams are forced to rely more on the run -- and less on the pass. That's not an old wives tale. It's strong enough statistically that it can be seen even when all of the stats (of games in all weather conditions) are mixed together. When you compare the first half of last season versus the second half, for example, you'll see that teams on average scored 1 more rushing touchdown (in those final eight games) and averaged 9 more rushing yards per game. With passing, it moved in the opposite direction: passing yards per game dropped from 221 to 217 gross yards per game, and TD passes fell from 10.6 (in those eight games) to 9.7. It's a big deal -- something we should hire a graduate student to spend a month dissecting. (The numbers above aren't "good weather" versus "bad weather", they're just the easy-to-obtain, all-encompassing numbers from the entire halves of the season, including games played in domes.) It's something that you should definitely keep an eye on in the final weeks of the season, especially in those games to be played in northern cities. We'll try to hit as many of those weather forecasts as possible in our late-week updates.

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A:

Jarrett, I believe, isn't the right physical shape to play wide receiver in the NFL. He's huge, but he isn't fast enough, so he'll always have trouble getting open. The Jaguars have three receivers like that: Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford and Reggie Williams. Williamson drops too many balls; no value. Smith looked very good in the preseason, then he got hurt. I'd say he has about a 60-40 chance of starting ahead of Amani Toomer next season. Robinson might be a starter for the Falcons; he looks pretty good. And Jackson showed some real ability earlier in the year before fading when the Chargers traded for Chris Chambers. Bottom line: none of those guys can be counted on to ever develop into much of anything. If I had to pick one, it would be Smith.

As for runners in college, there are definitely some backs who might outproduce Darren McFadden next year.

Here in Seattle, we watched Jonathan Stewart run for 251 yards and 2 TDs against Washington a few weeks back. 230-pounder for Oregon who probably runs under 4.5. He'll probably be the 2nd back selected next spring. He'll be on national TV Saturday at UCLA. With Shaun Alexander right at the end of the road, the Seahawks may have interest in Stewart, and he should be available when they pick around No. 20.

Rashard Mendenhall (Illinois) has been very good, running for 1,526 yards, scoring 18 TDs and averaging 6.2 yards per carry. He's listed at 224 pounds and has the same kind of speed.

And Steve Slaton (West Virginia) might wind up in the first round. He's a smaller back -- 195 pounds -- but he's fast and makes a lot of plays. He's scored 53 TDs in the last three years. And he can catch, too. Maybe he develops into another Tiki Barber.

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I don't think either Selvin Young or Andre Hall will be Denver's starting tailback next year. But we'll see how those guys play down the stretch; maybe one of them -- most likely, Young -- can work his way into consideration. Ever since Terrell Davis blew out his knee, it has been pretty crazy in Denver, with the best runners a lot of years coming out of almost nowhere. A look at Denver's expected starters (as of opening day) over the last 10 years:

1998 TERRELL DAVIS

2,225 total yards and 23 TDs. He did just fine.

1999 TERRELL DAVIS

Blows out knee. Olandis Gary runs for 1159 yards, 7 TDs.

2000 TERRELL DAVIS / OLANDIS GARY

Both get hurt. Mike Anderson runs for 1,487 yds, 15 TDs.

2001 TERRELL DAVIS / MIKE ANDERSON

Neither runs for more than 701 yards, 4 TDs

2002 CLINTON PORTIS

1,872 total yards, 17 TDs. Gary started first couple of games.

2003 CLINTON PORTIS

1,905 total yards, 14 TDs.

2004 QUENTIN GRIFFIN

Quickly benched. Reuben Droughns goes for 1,481, 8 TDs.

2005 MIKE ANDERSON

1,226 total yards, 13 TDs. Tatum Bell chips in 1,025 & 8 TDs.

2006 MIKE BELL

Runs for 677 & 8 TDs, Loses job to Tatum Bell (1,025 & 2)

2007 TRAVIS HENRY

645 total yards, 1 TD. Could be suspended for the season.

As you can see, it's been a pretty fluid situation. Unless the Broncos obtain some kind of can't-miss, game-breaking back in the offseason, I'm not sure you'll be able to count on any back there being a top-15 guy in 2008.

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I think your rulebook speaks for itself. "When an owner doesn't submit a lineup, the previous week's exact lineup is used." There's not a lot of gray area there. I don't see a disclaimer that reads: "Unless the guy has Tom Brady on his roster, then that guy automatically gets Brady put into the lineup but the rest of the roster is frozen." If the guy wants to not send in a lineup, that's his problem, not the rest of the league. On a related, more interesting tangent, we have a similar rule in our league. But what to do -- and this has happened a few times -- if an owner releases or trades a player who was a starter the previous week, and then doesn't submit a lineup? You'll want to add verbage in there to handle that scenario. In our league, there are two camps. One wants affected starting spots simply left blank. The other maintains that the commissioner just rules what the lineup is, using the judgment of a reasonably prudent person. There are also fines in our league for not submitting lineups, even if the starting lineup is unchanged.

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I think it's a small step in the right direction. Dilfer isn't anything special, but I don't think Alex Smith can play at all. Dilfer at least has thrown for 209 and 231 yards in his last two starts, with 2 TDs. And he had a game-tying touchdown dropped in the Rams game. Smith is completing less than 49 percent of his passes and has thrown for 150-plus yards in only two of his six complete games. The 49ers selected him with a No. 1 pick overall, but I don't think he's ever going to develop into a functional NFL starter.

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