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Posted Jun. 29 at 12:11 PM

Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.



Question 1:

The magazine is out and as expected LT (coming off back-to-back 20 TD seasons) graces the cover. Has anyone coming off back-to-back 20 TD seasons ever scored more than 16 TDs?


Don Pavelka [Plainview, Minn.]

A:

Tomlinson is the fourth back who’s scored 20-plus touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. All of the others have come in this decade. Marshall Faulk scored 26 and 21 TDs in the 2000-2001 seasons, as well as going over 2,000 total yards in both of those seasons, but he wasn’t the same back the following year. His production and effectiveness were down, even before he missed two games with a foot injury. He finished with 953 rushing yards and gained only 537 receiving yards on his 80 receptions. Scored only 10 TDs as well.

Then came Priest Holmes. He scored 24 TDs in 2002 and a record 27 TDs the following year. In his third season, he scored 15 TDs and ran for 892 yards before suffering a season-ending neck injury in his eighth game. He entered that season as a 30-year-old, but his effectiveness was only slightly off prior to his injury. He wasn’t quite as explosive as a runner, and he didn’t catch nearly as many passes.

And finally there was Shaun Alexander last year. He scored 20 and 28 TDs in his two big seasons, averaging 112 rushing yards per game. But he slipped last year, missing six games with a cracked foot and struggling behind a declining offensive line. He averaged only 90 rushing yards per game and scored only 7 TDs in 10 games.

So what does this mean for Tomlinson? Nothing, as far as I’m concerned. He’s younger than any of those other backs, he’s running behind a great offensive line, and he’s been the league’s most durable back. I think he’s going to become the first to score 20 TDs three years in a row.


Question 2:

Any advice on running an auction online? Our group has spread around the country over the years.


Craig Rinne [Internet]

A:

I know of two websites that are doing good work in regards to auctions. I’ve done three auctions online with www.fantasyauctioneer.com. They specialize in auctions, and their system definitely works. The auctions I’ve done at that site have taken about 3-4 hours, but there are various settings that allow you to speed up or slow down the process. I haven’t had a chance to see how that site works during the actual season, but I haven’t heard any complaints about it.

The other one I like is www.myfantasyleague.com. I did one with them last August. They’ve raised online auctioning technology to a new level by incorporating eBay-style bidding. That is, if LaDainian Tomlinson is on the block, I can put in a maximum bid of $55, and I’ll get Tomlinson for $1 more than the highest bid until somebody else bids $56. I love that. And they’ve got it cleverly timed out where you can do an auction over a number of days or weeks. In the league I was in, the clock was set so that players were sold when 24 hours had passed without the high bidder changing. So you only have to log on to the site once per day if you’re busy. As I recall, we had it set up where each team could nominate a player only once per day, so there were 6-12 players up for auction at most times. I’ve run leagues through myfantasyleague.com many times, and we’ve never had any problems during the season – nice site.


Question 3:

Loved finding the FFI in the mailbox today. First two things I looked at were the Sleepers & Busts and the Rankings and couldn't help notice some major inconsistencies. McAllister overrated with #s to drop to 700 yds & 7 TDs but ranked #18 with projections of 80 yds and .64 TDs per game. Portis as a sleeper but ranked as #22 RB. Vince Young overrated but #9 ranked QB. What's the reason for some of the bipolar differences?


Chris Jackman [Pipersville, Pa.]

A:

If you’re going to publish a fantasy magazine, you have to have a “sleepers” section. You have to put the word “sleeper” next to some picks. Otherwise, a bunch of readers bitch and complain. Hence, the birth of a the “Sleepers and Busts” article a few years back. In that article, we try to point out the potential upside and downside of some players. Ultimately, however, when in doubt you’ll want to consult with the hard, exact, right-down-to-the-yard projections on our Cheat Sheet. In the case of McAllister, I believe he’s the No. 18 running back on the board. When I tossed out the numbers of 700 yards and 7 TDs in the Sleepers and Bust articles, that was intended to be the type of production he could easily slip down to. My exact forecast for McAllister is 962 rushing yards, 167 receiving yards and 8.6 TDs.

In the case of Young, the raw numbers – my projections – indicate he’s the No. 9 quarterback on the board. If the top 8 quarterbacks are gone and I need to take a quarterback, he’ll be the guy I’ll select. But I’ve got a bad feeling about Young, with him being a youngster surrounded by big expectations and lesser receivers. I’d rather not wind up in the position where I select him.

With Portis being projected to share more of the work with Ladell Betts, No. 22 at running back seems like a fair spot for him. If the platoon situation goes smoothly, Portis will finish lower than No. 22. If the committee deal heads south (and Portis gets more work), then he’ll be more valuable.


Question 4:

I was wondering if you could shed some light on offenses with new coordinators who claim they will be running basically the same system. Rick Neuheisel comes from the same system and takes over OC, Joe Philbin in Green Bay, Mike Sherman in Houston. Oh and in case I didn't schmooze you enough, I was planning on naming my first-born male, Ian. I realize this isn't a slam-dunk question and since you already have my money for this year, and my respect, my only threat would be to become an expert and humiliate you in some draft to be named later.

Mr. Dwayne Cox

7-time Fantasy Football Champion

Oak Lawn, IL


Dwayne Cox (7-time champion) [Oak Lawn, Ill.]

A:

Of the three offenses you mention, I think you’ll see the most change in Baltimore, but more because of the change at tailback rather than offensive coordinator. With Willis McGahee starting rather than Jamal Lewis, they say they’ll run far more formations with three wide receivers – McGahee is faster and a better outside runner. Assuming it goes down that way, Demetrius Williams will be on the field a lot more than any No. 3 receiver has been for that team in recent years, which potentially could hurt the stats of Todd Heap, Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason. If Williams is on the field and catching balls, he presumably will result in those guys seeing fewer passes. Williams, by the way, is a much better deep threat than any of those guys.

As for baby names, I’d stay away from “Ian”. Lots of people don’t know how to pronounce that name (I hear a lot of “eye-an”) and in your case, the boy would be stuck down at 6 letters. If you want to go with an NFL-related name, you could go with underachieving receiver Aaron Cox (Rams), middle-finger-flipping linebacker Bryan Cox (Dolphins), linebacker Ron Cox (Bears) or punter and kickoff specialist Steve Cox (Cleveland/Washington). Prior to a game against Cleveland, which was quarterbacked by Todd Philcox at the time, Warren Moon stayed in a hotel using the alias Phil Cox.


Question 5:

Due to my league's wacky scoring system, I'm stumped on how to value QBs for the draft. Passing stats are 6pts/TD and 1pt/25 yards; rushing/receiving are 6pts/TD and 1pt/20 yards (no PPR). Eight teams. Start QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, 1 RB/WR, PK and DEF.


Jeff Hogge [Gainesville, Fla.]

A:

I ran some numbers on that scoring system. It appears to increase the value of quarterbacks. According to my numbers, four quarterbacks should be selected in the top 15 overall, and Peyton Manning should be selected No. 2 overall. I’m not sure I’d take Manning quite that high – Steven Jackson is awfully good – but I’d certainly be prepared to pounce on one of those other quarterbacks if they were still around about 25 to 30 picks in.


Question 6:

I am in a 12-team keeper league. We can keep 3 players drafted after the third round. You lose the preceding rounds pick for whichever guy you keep. Example: Addai drafted in the fifth last year will cost you a fourth this year. What do you think the value of a first-round pick is in this type of league.


Eugene Hitt [Garrison, NY]

A:

I think a first-round pick would be worth only slightly less than a first-round pick in a standard (non-keeper) format. With the first 36 players selected each year not eligible to be protected, my guess is that at least 75 percent of the guys selected in the first round are still going to be there. Looking at the top 13 running backs on my draft board, my guess is that the only two of those players who might not have been selected in the top 36 last year would be Travis Henry and maybe Laurence Maroney. In that type of format, however, I believe I’d prefer a fourth-round pick over a third-rounder. Players selected in the fourth should be almost as productive, and they come with the added value that you might protect them the following year.


Question 7:

I'm in a 10-team PPR performance league that keeps one player only (same player up to 3 seasons maximum). I'm thinking of trading Brian Westbrook for Joseph Addai. Would you pull the trigger?


Barry Brown [Columbus, Ohio]

A:

I’d rather have Addai. He’s younger, he should score more touchdowns, and I think he has a better chance of staying healthy. I’m not arguing that Addai has proven himself to be a durable back, but with Westbrook, you’re looking at a running back who misses 2-4 starts every year. He tends to get nicked up, and he’s always the first guy that Andy Reid pulls if the Eagles either clinch home-field advantage or are eliminated from playoff contention. Addai won’t get pulled in goal-line situations, which gives him a better chance of scoring about 14 TDs. With Westbrook, you get a more proven performer, as well as a team with a better offensive line.


Readers' Comments

Question 1: The magazine is out and...

Posted by DON PAVELKA | Jun. 29 at 04:43 PM

I was also thinking of Emmitt in 94 & 95. He came back with 15 in 96.

Question 1: The magazine is out and...

Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jun. 29 at 10:48 PM

Apologies. I did, indeed, overlook Emmitt Smith. After his two big seasons, he also dropped in his third season, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and running for only 1,204 yards (down over 500). Smith played 15 games that year but was hindered by injuries, spraining a knee in the preseason, bruising his neck and back in the opener and playing all year on a bum ankle that required offseason surgery.

Question 1: The magazine is out and...

Posted by DAVID GARRICK | Jul. 02 at 03:06 AM

I can't find any of the usual toolbox features on the site, such as projected 2007 stats for players and defenses. Where are they? Also, Alex Smith is in the top 20 on all the cheat sheets in the magazine, but he doesn't appear among the 26 players listed in the quarterbacks section. Have you gone schizo, or is this just sloppy editing?

Question 1: The magazine is out and...

Posted by TIM LIEBERG | Jul. 02 at 08:37 PM

What no Denver RB or Tatum Bell questions? Are you sure this is an Ian Allan mailbag?

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