Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 09 at 10:15 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I got the mag in the mail on Monday. I'm pouring through it but don't want to read it too fast. Kind of like a fine wine. I need to savor it. Question: Our league gives 6 points for touchdown passes. What would your top 25 look like considering that change?
Johnny Bazzano [SANTA ROSA, CA]
A:
When you increase the value of TD passes by 50 percent, that definitely enhances quarterbacks on your draft board – it has to. On my cheat sheet, with TD passes being worth 4 points and giving 1 point for every 20 passing yards (and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards), I’ve got quarterbacks at 3, 6, 9, 12, 46 and 51. That’s for a 12-team league with three wide receivers as starters. When you increase TD passes to 6 points, it moves quarterbacks up on my board to 2, 3, 6, 7, 27, 29, 31, 41, 42, 49 and 50. That’s purely based on value. But there’s the added dimension in a fantasy league of combining that with the drafting tendencies of the other guys in your league. In most leagues, there’s no need to go after Drew Brees or Tony Romo with a top-12 pick – those guys should be available around No. 25.
Question 2:
In our league, we have our dynasty league rookie draft coming up and I have the 6th pick. Would it make sense to take a guy with a higher ceiling like Ryan Torain or Tim Hightower or go with a player that's safer but may never play full time like Felix Jones or Chris Johnson.
Cody Hager [ALOHA, OR]
A:
If I were walking into a dynasty draft today, I'd be hoping to get one of five running backs -- Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall and Kevin Smith. And in about that order. You're drafting No. 6, so there's a decent chance (probably better than 50-50) that one of those guys will be there when you pick. If it doesn't unfold that way, you'll have fall back on one of these other running backs. As for right now -- July 9 -- I would select Felix Jones next, with Chris Johnson and Ryan Torain close behind him. This order is bound to change, of course, based on how these guys develop in camp and play in the preseason games.
Question 3:
Given the choice among these three WRs, who would you recommend keeping (I can only keep one)and why: W. Welker, B. Marshall or D. Driver?
Scott Westburg [THORNTON, PA]
A:
I’d keep Marshall. He’s had some offseason problems, which could result in him being suspended for a game or two by the league, but he’s still the clear go-to receiver in Denver. They don’t really have a lot of options there, so I think they’ll really pump him the ball. He caught a league-high 57 passes during the second half of last year. Of that group, I think he has the best chance of scoring 10 TDs. I have no interest in Driver as a potential keeper of those other two.
Question 4:
In the magazine (Fantasy Index) it doesn't include a prediction of win/loss and scores for the teams. Also, it does not include how a team may grade out against the Run or Pass. Is there anything on-line that helps show this information. This would be helpful with the strength of schedule information.
BEN RUHALA [OXFORD, MI]
A:
If you look in the “Toolbox” section at the main page of the website (www.fantasyindex.com), there’s a link titled “Projected 2008 stats”. If you click on that link, you’ll be able to download an Excel file that has exact stat forecasts for each player. Also included in that file are the forecasts for each defense, showing how many passing yards, rushing yards and points each should allow. I haven’t predicted wins and losses for each club, but I imagine I’ll do that at some point this summer.
Question 5:
My league is planning to possibly change its rules, requiring teams to start only one running back and switching that second running back spot to a "flex" position, which can be filled by a RB, WR or TE. Actual NFL teams only start 1 running back and I want to get more balance in the league. My league owners were concerned about the lack of running backs available since everyone started two and they didn't feel the league was balanced. Also with the rising running back by committee we could still use 2 plus running backs in our league with the flex. Does this help the situation and would you try this formation in your league?
Brian Harwood [Bowling Green, KY]
A:
Sounds good to me. NFL teams tend to have one quarterback and one featured, main runner, so I don’t understand why there’s the big push in fantasy leagues to use one quarterback as a starter but twice as many running backs. Allowing fantasy teams to instead use a flex position, in my opinion, is a good move. It could result in you seeing more variety in the draft picks in the first and second rounds.
Question 6:
I'm in an 8 team league, with all TDs worth 6 points. Quarterbacks go extremely quick, last year 4 in the first round. In your opinion, is it wise to jump on the QB train, or wait and add depth at RB and WR ? And, if waiting, when to pull the trigger on a QB ?
Steven Ollenburg [Humble, TX]
A:
As I mentioned in the earlier letter, increasing TD passes to 6 points does significantly increase the value of quarterbacks. That question, however, was for a 12-team league. You've got just eight in your league, so there will be plenty of good quarterbacks to go around. You should get a nice one-two punch, even if you wait until the middle rounds of the draft. I wouldn't mind reeling in Tom Brady in the top half of the first round, but I think I would otherwise tend to wait on that position -- get a guy where you're real happy with both the player and where you selected him.
Question 7:
In the traditional playoff system, the top four teams make the playoffs, but there are problems with this method. Regular season performance is not sufficiently rewarded. In the NFL, a team that dominates the regular season gets two huge advantages: home field throughout the playoffs and a first round bye. But in fantasy, all that really matters is making into the playoffs, since -- with no byes or home field -- seeding is practically irrelevant. Owner involvement declines late in the regular season, and general league interest flags as the championship game approaches. My league has devised a somewhat radical departure from the traditional playoff system. We’re going to play our championship game in week 15. All 10 teams will compete in this game. However, teams will be handicapped based on their place finish through week 14. The regular-season champ will have no handicap. The 2nd-place team will have 8 points subtracted from their score. The 3rd-place team will have 16 points subtracted, and so on. Thus, not only is regular season success tremendously important, but every single place finish matters. This gives every owner incentive to stay active and involved for the duration, as moving up one or two places dramatically affects their odds of winning the championship. Your thoughts?
Kyle Gerkin [GLENDALE, AZ]
A:
I can see some of the sense in what you’re advocating. To me, though, it’s not similar enough to the approach used by the mother league. Too radical. I like a big playoff matchup. I like tracking which teams have gone the most consecutive years without making the playoffs and which owners have the best postseason records. If I wanted to address the issue of No. 1 seeds not winning enough in the postseason, I’d be more interested in simply giving teams a 5-point (or whatever) advantage for playing at home in playoff games.
Question 8:
Some co-workers and I decided to try a different twist this year. We're starting a league from scratch and are toying with the idea of drafting entire NFL teams, instead of players. With our 8-team league, each owner would then get 4 NFL teams from which to assemble his 16-man roster, then all remaining players get dumped into the free agency pool. We feel like this will encourage more trades, and force owners to know every player on every team when going into the draft, even though the draft itself might take just 15 minutes to complete. What is your opinion of this style of draft? And how might a "team-by-team" cheat sheet look?
ADAM HOLTZ [ROCHESTER, MN]
A:
I’ve never heard of any league using that approach. I don’t know how it will work, or what the appeal is. Seems to me that you’re just handcuffing a lot of players together (rather than choosing between Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson, for example, you’re weighing Peterson plus the crappy fantasy prospects around him versus Jackson with the benefit of also getting Holt and a better quarterback – but what’s the point?) It looks too funky for my tastes. Nevertheless, if you look at the combined production of the top 4 players on each team (and with 16-man rosters, you should be keeping about four guys from each of the four teams you select), my top teams (purely off the numbers) would be New England, Indianapolis, Dallas, San Diego, New Orleans, Cleveland. If you then go down to three players for the next plateau, the best remaining teams would be St. Louis, Philadelphia, Arizona, Minnesota, Denver and Green Bay. Good luck with this unusual experiment.
Question 9:
Last year in an attempt to win our Fantasy Bowl I traded away my 2008 2nd and 3rd round picks. (Note to self, it didn't work.) Our league awards 6 points for a passing TD, so my first round pick this year needs to be brilliant. I have the 4th overall pick. I'm hoping that Brady is there at #4 to build my team around. If the 3rd guy takes Brady do I take S. Jackson or go with Manning? Moss?
Craig Gray [BEMIDJI, MN]
A:
I’d probably select Steven Jackson, figuring that a good quarterback would still be available late in the second round (or maybe even in the third, fourth or fifth). As I mentioned earlier, straight off the numbers, I’ve got Brady and Manning as the Nos. 2-3 players overall in that type of a format, but my hunch is you’ll get better value by waiting a bit on that position.
Question 10:
Is there any projections for what I call combo players? In essence if you draft the 12/15 rated QB's they would project out to 30 TDS by playing the schedule. However, the 8th/10th may project 28TD's? Just curious. There was a lot of discussion in the magazine about the strength of schedule this season. If you can try to predict getting a couple of QB's late, maybe it would pay to pass on Manning/Brady, etc.
BEN RUHALA [OXFORD, MI]
A:
I don’t think that’s an effective way to look at quarterbacks. Once you’re outside the top 5, you’re going to be wildly wrong on a lot of players. Guys are going to get hurt and benched, or they’ll simply not perform as expected. So when you combined quarterbacks, it’s almost certain that you’ll be completely wrong on at least one half of your combo-platter prospects. I think you’ll be better off selecting individual players, then looking for players later that seem to fit well with them. If you draft a “safe” quarterback such as Tony Romo or Drew Brees, for example, that may give you the confidence in the later rounds to go after a high-upside, high-risk guy like Aaron Rodgers.
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Question 2: In our league, we have...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jul. 09 at 11:03 AM
I agree with Ian as to the top 5 backs, but I'm not as confident that one of them will be there at No. 6. I think your best shot is that somebody likes Ryan Torain enough to take him ahead of one of those guys. In my own rookie draft in May, which I wrote about elsewhere on the site, those were the top 5 guys - although given the early date, Torain was more of an unknown. I might see if you can trade up with one of the guys just ahead of you. Otherwise, at 6, I like Johnson a little more than Jones and Torain. Torain worries me because Shanahan is fickle: he spoke glowingly about Travis Henry and Selvin Young last preseason. I can't trust him to give Torain the ball and keep him there. On overall ability Jones is no doubt better than Johnson, but he's going to be complementing a superior back in Marion Barber (compared to LenDale White) so I'm worried his role will always be limited. Given Tennessee's dearth of weapons elsewhere, I've got more confidence in Johnson getting a bigger workload. All three are close, but I guess I'd rank them Johnson-Jones-Torain, with Torain having the most upside but also the biggest risk. For what it's worth.
Question 4: In the magazine (Fantasy Index)...
Posted by MICHAEL WELLS | Jul. 12 at 08:26 PM
I downloaded the file, but I can't find the stat projections for the TEAMs, i.e., rushing yards, rushing TD, passing yards, passing TDs.
Question 7: In the traditional playoff system,...
Posted by ADAM HOLTZ | Jul. 10 at 06:20 AM
My league awards 3 points to the home team during every regular season game, mostly for message board roleplay purposes (we really get into it). Then for the playoffs, we give a 5-point advantage to the home team (hi seed), and it becomes 7 in the Fantasy Bowl. Definitely advantageous for a team to perform well in the regular season.
Question 8: Some co-workers and I decided...
Posted by Todd Weigel | Jul. 09 at 03:04 PM
Adam's idea of drafting four entire teams, then assembling the rosters, is interesting. But if they go with a snake draft, it could be disastrous. Having a couple elite players in a draft can give the top pickers a huge advantage. Now think of the lucky guy who can pick New England at #1. This league cries out for an auction. Any made-up dollar amount ($100, $40, etc.) will do. Make the guy who bids up New England have to consider settling on Atlanta and Miami as well. Plus, Fantasy Index does much more analysis of what an entire team will produce than the average fantasy mag. This could give you a big advantage.