Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 11 at 05:23 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
After 18 years of having a 10 owner league we are expanding to 12 owners this upcoming year. We are dropping roster spots from 16 to 14. We start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE and 1K. We have a $100 Auction at beginning of year to fill our 14 man roster. Any tips, strategies or suggestions you have concerning this change?
Rick CWIK [LEMONT, IL]
A:
I’d like to see you go with three starting wide receivers, rather than just two. That will tip things in favor of that position a little bit. It will makes players like Moss, Colston, Owens and Burress more valuable (since there would be 36 wide receivers starting each week, rather than just 24). I think that’s a good thing. And you’ve got just 12 teams in your league selecting 14 players each, so there should still be enough wide receivers to go around.
As for the auction itself, my approach is to walk into the competition with exact prices for each player. You’re in a 12-team league with 14-man rosters, so you need a list of 168 players with values adding up to exactly $1200. We’ve got a list posted at the website that’s almost exactly what you need. Go to the “Toolbox” section at www.fantasyindex.com and select “2008 Auction values”. We’ve got 120 different auction lists there; you’ll want to pick the one that doesn’t include defenses and is based on 12 teams each starting two wide receivers.
Once you’ve got your auction sheet in front of you, your job at the auction will be collect as many deals as you can at the auction. How the other owners in your draft bid will determine whether you buy a couple of superstars or go with a more balanced approach. Do not buy players for the prices that I’ve listed. Those are their VALUES. If you buy 14 players at their suggest values, your team will be “worth” $100 – it will be an average team. Instead, you’ll want to buy as many as you can at below retail value, so at the end of the deal, your team will be worth (according to my values) something like $130-140 dollars.
Question 2:
I've got a draft starting this Monday. Would -2 for INT's adjust your QB rankings much? I've got the 7th pick and am thinking Randy Moss will probably be there (#4 overall in the Mag).
BARRY BROWN [Columbus, OH]
A:
We do project interceptions, and adding them into the mix does affect the quarterback rankings. The top 5 remains intact, but both David Garrard and Donovan McNabb move up 4 spots each. Ben Roethlisberger (I’ve documented before his tendency to throw far more interceptions in losses – when he’s forced to throw more often and put under more pressure). Eli Manning falls 2 spots and Derek Anderson drops 1 spot. Anderson would have dropped more, I suppose, if we didn’t already have him very conservatively graded at 11th among quarterbacks. With a much harder schedule, I expect Anderson to struggle at times this year, and I think he could be like Roethlisberger, tending to force balls when his team falls behind. Over the last two years, Anderson averages more interceptions per game than any other quarterback – 25 picks in the 18 games he’s started.
Question 3:
When do you think it is appropriate to pick up Darren McFadden?
Joshua O'Brien [San Diego]
A:
On my board, Darren McFadden is the No. 27 running back. I think he’ll play part-time, splitting the work with Justin Fargas. Michael Bush could be a factor there as well, maybe getting the bulk of the goal-line carries. (The Raiders also still have LaMont Jordan, but I’m sure he’ll be gone before mid-August.) My hunch is that McFadden won’t be a standout rookie. I wouldn’t mind rolling the dice on him after the 26 running backs I have ranked ahead of him have been selected, but I’m sure McFadden will be long gone by that point – at least one owner in every league, I figure, will have him in the top 20 on their board. In the experts poll in our magazine, half of the 20 experts included McFadden in the top 20 at the running back position.
Question 4:
In a keeper league where every team (12 to be exact) keeps 2 players (which have to be 2 different positions), my keepers are Tony Romo and Ryan Grant. We lose the draft pick of the round they were selected in last year, in my case 6 and 15 respectively. With so many players off the board, especially the potential of 12 RB's already off the board, what type of player(s) do you recommend targeting in the first round? I have the 4th pick overall, would you recommend the best available RB left, or look at going after a WR possibly even TO to pair with Romo?
Mark Foley [BEAVERTON, OR]
A:
I wouldn’t target a position. I’d go with the best player available. With 27 players already off the board when you’re picking at No. 4, Terrell Owens would certainly be a nice player to select at that spot – I think he’s a top-10 type talent.
Question 5:
My 10 person auction league allows you to keep one player from the previous year. But by keeping a player you subtract money from your teams upcoming auction money based on a formula. It works out I could keep Tom Brady for 50 bucks and start with 150 auction dollars instead of 200. Would you keep Brady for 25% of your auction money? We award 4 points for a TD pass and 1 point for every 40 yards passing. Tony Romo is being kept by another team.
Kevin Robinson [BURNSVILLE, MN]
A:
It would depend on the scoring system. How many players are starting at the other positions and how their being scored affects the valuing system for quarterbacks. I flipped through the 24 different scoring systems we have for 10-team leagues. On most of those, Brady is valued at 27-37 percent of the salary cap, so he’d be a guy you’d consider. My guess is that it will work out that he’s worth more than 25 percent of your salary. Whether it works out that he’s enough under his retail value to stand out as a high-value guy, I’m not as sure. You may have a lesser player on your roster who generates more overall value.
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Question 4: In a keeper league where...
Posted by KURT FERNSTROM | Jul. 14 at 01:31 PM
I wouldn't target a position either, but if the keepers are based on last year's draft position, the 24 kept players are not going to be the best players, just the best values. TO may or may not be the best player left at #4.