Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 25 at 07:10 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Since there was so much discussion and emphasis put on the strength of schedule in the magazine, was there any thoughts of the best/worst strength of schedules for two combined teams? For instance, if the Patroits had the best strength of schedule, how would it compare to say Denver’s and New Orleans’ combined schedule. In my league, and I would assume most, we have at least two at each position for depth and other than the top 5 at each postion we tend to play the schedule. If we had a sheet that gave us the best pairings for teams (combined strength of schedule) and we were picking a backup, we wouldn't have to do this comparison of schedules on the fly (we don't have the time between picks). Also, for teams like Pittsburgh at the bottom, maybe combining their schedule with Seattle’s might be more advantagous than combining with New England. It's possible the easy matchups could line up on the same weeks. So if Pittsburgh is playing New England and Seattle is playing Kansas City that week, the combination of there schedules may mesh. Does that make sense?
BEN RUHALA [OXFORD, MI]
A:
It’s a clever idea. I’m not sure it will amount to anything. I’m not sure it’s anything that will affect the way we draft in August. But I will grant you that it’s a clever idea. I ran the numbers on this, which involves there now being 31 different “strength of schedule” charts for each team – so 496 overall (528 if you include the regular single-team schedules). For each pair of teams, I took only the easiest projected game of the week and threw out the other one. For the 496 pairs of teams, almost half of those schedules – 228 – project to be easier than New England’s (though, of course, 31 of those schedule include the Patriots themselves). The projected ten easiest pairs:
W L Pct.
73 199 .268 New England / NY Jets
71 185 .277 Miami / New England
76 196 .279 Buffalo / New England
78 194 .287 Buffalo / NY Jets
78 194 .287 Denver / New England
79 193 .290 Arizona / New England
79 193 .290 Buffalo / Miami
79 193 .290 Buffalo / Oakland
79 193 .290 New England / St. Louis
79 193 .290 Oakland / San Diego
Now, can we do anything meaningful with this data? I’m not sure. It seems with the numbers of unknowns we’re looking at – some teams being better or worse than expected, and players getting hurt and whatnot – that the information is of marginal value at best. But let me give it some more thought. I’ll post the complete chart of data – all 496 pairs – on the website and let the group stew it over. Maybe somebody will have a good suggestion.
Question 2:
An FFI favorite through the years, Rod Smith, has retired. Many fantasy owners have stories where they won or lost games or Championships because of him. Favorite fantasy related Rod Smith memory?
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
He has to go down as one of the greatest undrafted players ever. Street free agent out of Missouri Southern. I remember his first catch: a 43-yarder on the final play of the game to beat Washington in a 38-31 shootout at Mile High. It wasn't until 1997 -- his fourth year in the league -- that he started playing regularly.
Question 3:
Hi Ian, I have a wonderful problem to have in my upcoming ten team performance draft. We are allowed to protect one player from the previous roster and due to some crazy trading, I have managed to grab LT, Peterson and another owner’s first round pick. I am without my 2nd, 3rd and 5th round picks (I did pick up an extra 7th though). So essentially I have LT/Peterson and then don't pick again until round four. Here is my dilema: I am strongly considering trading LT for Tom Brady, since in my league all TDs are worth 6 pts. Brady was absolutely riduculous last year and although I don't expect a repeat even if he scores 65% of last year he will still be the top point producer. I feel that the drop off from QB1 to 10 is much steeper than RB1 to even 15. It would be a dream to field both LT and AP but wouldn't it be more logical to bet with my head and go Peterson/Brady?
CHRISTOPHER FLUCK [PHILADELPHIA, PA]
A:
On my board, I’m projecting Brady to finish with 36 TDs. I consider that to be his over-under. And at that level, with there being 6 points for TD passes (instead of 4), he projects to be the No. 1 player on the board – more valuable than either Tomlinson or Peterson.
Question 4:
10 team league. Each team can keep up to three keepers. Standard yardage scoring, with PPR and all TDs being worth 6 points. Start 2 QBs, 3 WRs, 2 RBs, TE, K & DEF. Which of these three would you keep – LT, Addai, Romo and Brees? Thanks and love the mag and updates!
Rick Anderson [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
I've been doing these mailbags for a lot of years. I don't think I've ever had anybody ask me before if he should protect LaDainian Tomlinson. The LT does stand for LaDainian Tomlinson, right? Am I being punked?
Question 5:
I am in a ten team keeper league, snake draft, and I'm trying to decide between Willie Parker and Julius Jones as my mid-round keeper. Parker will cost me my 6th round pick (6.09), Jones will cost me my 7th (7.02). Not much difference, but the right pick could put me back in the playoffs. I appreciate your help.
Scott Kopischke [Menomonee Falls, WI]
A:
I'm not really high on either guy. I've got Parker higher on my board. If you're a Brock Huard fan (the former University of Washington and NFL backup quarterback) go with Jones. I heard Huard on the radio this morning, and he was going on and on about how great Jones looks and how many more passes he'll catch than Shaun Alexander.
Question 6:
Question about a trade in a keeper league. Brandon Jacobs, Lee Evans and the 10th pick in rookie draft for marshawn lynch and the 19th pick in rookie draft. My lineup already consists of Manning, gore, mjd, boldin, jennings, holt, gates, folk and vikings defense. I have jacobs, evans and gallaway on my bench. it frees up about $8 million in cap space for free agents.
Gary Wool [Philadelphia, PA]
A:
I’m not sure. I’m not sure of the scoring system, and I’m not sure of the player salaries – seems like they’re playing a key role in the deal. On the surface, it looks like a fair trade proposal; I’m not sure which side I would prefer.
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Question 1: Since there was so much...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jul. 25 at 08:45 AM
OK. I see. I misread the question. And there's also the issue of starting two quarterbacks in his league. I would then opt to protect both Brees and Romo. Hard to throw back a guy like Addai, but that's what the scoring system dictates.
Question 2: An FFI favorite through the...
Posted by BRYAN BERTSCH | Jul. 27 at 04:51 AM
Rod Smith holds a special place for me. It was 1998, the year I won my first (and only) League Championship and Total Points Sweep. It was grand - and it was on account of Rod Smith, dropping not one, but two long bombs that were sure TDs in the late game, week 16. I was watching with my opponent, who curled up in the fetal position after each drop. Thanks Rod, for preserving my slim victory!
Question 4: 10 team league. Each team...
Posted by Joe Cartan | Jul. 25 at 07:42 AM
Since the guy started his question off by saying that in his league you can keep 3 players, I think the guy meant "out of the following 4 players, which 3 would you keep?" He just worded the question incorrectly.