Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 30 at 09:05 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I want to say a big thank you to you and the rest of the staff at the Fan Index for enabling me to win my league 3 years in a row. While my team's mantra will be "One for the Thumb" (I won the league in 2000 as well), you've left me in a bit of a quandary this year with all the emphasis placed on strength of schedule. Do you think you could help me with a couple of nuggets on what you project the strength of schedule to be during the playoff weeks (Weeks 14-16, 15-17, 16-17, or 14-17)?
Yours truly,
The Dynastic Beaver.
Mike Fair [WOODBURY, MN]
A:
Congrats, and no problem. I’ll provide you with the week 14-16 information now. Hit me back later for the other combinations, if I don’t get around to posting them in the next couple of days. I’ve got a lot of other letters and things going on, and I don’t want to print too many lists in one mailbag.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE FOR WEEKS 14-16
W L Pct.
8 40 .167 San Francisco
12 36 .250 Buffalo
16 32 .333 Miami
17 31 .354 San Diego
18 30 .375 Denver
18 30 .375 New Orleans
19 29 .396 Kansas City
19 29 .396 Minnesota
20 28 .417 Washington
22 26 .458 New England
22 26 .458 NY Jets
22 26 .458 Tampa Bay
23 25 .479 Seattle
23 25 .479 St. Louis
24 24 .500 Atlanta
25 23 .521 Cleveland
25 23 .521 Dallas
25 23 .521 Indianapolis
26 22 .542 Carolina
26 22 .542 Green Bay
27 21 .563 Arizona
27 21 .563 Houston
28 20 .583 Detroit
28 20 .583 NY Giants
28 20 .583 Pittsburgh
28 20 .583 Tennessee
29 19 .604 Philadelphia
31 17 .646 Chicago
32 16 .667 Baltimore
32 16 .667 Cincinnati
33 15 .688 Jacksonville
35 13 .729 Oakland
Question 2:
on page 209 of this year's magazine, you list the "money yards index" stats (short yardage success). Reggie Bush was one of the best running backs with a conversion rate of just over 88% (15 of 17). Why then do you say he is a "doesn't run well inside"? Doesn't that stat PROVE that he does run well inside? And in light of this, doesn't it seem logical that the saints would use bush more near the goal line? (resulting in more rushing td's for him)
Jason Fitzpatrick [USA]
A:
Keep in mind that those are just numbers. They paint an overall picture, but this isn’t NBA basketball, where you can look at the numbers and declare that Bush, at 88 percent, is a good free-throw shooter. Many of those carries came out of spread formations, with Bush handling the ball on sweeps and draws. Trickeration. If you’re looking for a guy that you can line up in an I-formation in a jumbo package and simply bang out a yard inside, I don’t think he’s the guy. He weighs only 203 pounds, and he’s a pretty lean guy. I don’t expect the Saints to make him their go-to ballcarrier around the end zone.
Question 3:
Last year, you were high on TJ HOUSH, so after looking at your boards, is it safe to say ya are promoting MJ DREW & BARBER this year. How about any WRs? I have not gotten to my crash study mode, but ya were right on last year so any short cuts would b great. I realize the different ways to play come into effect, but I'm a firm believer it's about the end results.
DARYL DORSEY [AMARILLO, TX]
A:
I don't have time right now to sit down and compare my rankings to a whole bunch of other ones, so I'm not 100 percent certain, but I believe I'm high (in comparision with other analysts) on QB Jay Cutler, RB Thomas Jones, WR Steve Smith, WR Wes Welker, WR Calvin Johnson, TE Alge Crumpler and kickers Josh Scobee, Ryan Longwell and Mike Nugent. But I'll have to double-check those; I'm probably missing a couple.
Question 4:
A lot of leagues give points for defenses holding their opponents below certain thresholds in addition to the standard points for sacks, turnovers, and touchdowns. How would you rank the top 10 defense/special teams units if 15 points are given for shutouts, 10 for holding the opponent to 2-9 points, and 5 for holding the opponent from 10-19 points?
TODD ROUSE [SYLVANIA, OH]
A:
Andy Richardson is our defense guy. He tabulates those rankings. And in his latest projections, he's got nine defenses being the best at allowing only a few points. In no particular order, San Diego, Minnesota, New England, Dallas, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay.
Question 5:
I just heard LaMont Jordan is going to the Pats. How will that affect Maroney and the rest of the offense? Will it even have any impact at all?
Jake Haugen [DULUTH, MN]
A:
I think realistically, Jordan is competing for the No. 2 job there with Sammy Morris. But Jordan could be a factor in any number of spots if there were an injury. If Kevin Faulk gets hurt, maybe Jordan will play on third downs. And if Laurence Maroney (who's had problems with injuries) goes down, I would expect the Patriots to use both Morris and Jordan extensively at tailback.
Question 6:
Keeper league question. We get to keep two players. I don't have two clear cut, (in my mind anyway) keepers. Romo, Witten, Jennings, Michael Turner are all I'm considering. Romo is probably at the top, as passing TD's are worth 7 points in our league. What do you think? Thanks.
James Ellis [WEST BARNSTABLE, MA]
A:
I agree. Romo is the best of those guys. I'd go with Witten as the other; he's my No. 1 tight end. Overall, however, I don't think you have a strong cast of candidates. If you can choose to keep none of those players and instead get extra draft picks (prior to other teams selecting), that's the way you should go. Maybe you re-pick Romo in the first round, but you'd also certainly find somebody better than Witten in round two.
Question 7:
I have a real difficult question about a non-keeper redrafter league I play in every year. It's a 12 team league and the 1st round is randomly selected with a snake in the 2nd. Last year, at the beginning of the draft, the player drafting 2nd (Team A) was propositoned by the player drafting 10th (Team B) to trade picks. I automatically assumed that they would switch places in the 1st and 2nd rounds to keep the balance of the snake draft order. HOWEVER, this was the conditions: Team A and Team B switched 1st round picks, their 2nd round picks remained the same. Team B traded his 3rd and 5th round picks to Team A giving Team A SEVEN picks in the 1st 5 rounds. Team A traded his 6th and 7th round picks to Team B to keep the # of picks balanced. I argued vehemently that if you give me 7 picks in the 1st 5 rounds, regardless of the place of my 1st round pick, I would would win the league every year. In my opinion, the comissioner should have never allowed this farce to even get to a vote, but he did and it managed to pass, because Team B's brother, father and a couple of his friends were in the league and they voted for it. Can you give me a fair, unbiased review of the trade? In the league we start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D and 1 flex (3RB or 3WR). Thanks.
Ted Adams [WALKER, LA]
A:
I would allow the trade. Two teams. Both are making a deal that they feel helps them. And without spending a bunch of time looking closely at it, I'm not even sure which side of that deal I would prefer -- probably the side holding the No. 2 overall pick. If you're going to allow trades in your league, you have to accept that sometimes teams will make trades that you don't like. You have to accept that sometimes there will be a Mike Lynn out there who'll make a Herschel Walker trade. Although, in this case, I don't see it as Herschel Walker trade at all.
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Question 1: I want to say a...
Posted by mike burdick | Jul. 31 at 09:04 AM
thnaks for a truly up-to-date magazine. How about adding a Rookie only ranking/cheat sheet to the weekly updates. Many of us have gone to a Dynasty League & only draft the rookies & free-agents available to us. You could even add a note about placing our free agents on the list where they may fall on your regular draft board as compared to the rookies.
Question 7: I have a real difficult...
Posted by Matt Tinker | Jul. 30 at 12:05 PM
I have to agree with Ian. To me, the 5th and 6th rounders are basically equal, but in a 12 team league, the difference between a 3rd round pick and a 7th round pick can EASILY be argued to make up the difference in value between the #2 and #10 pick overall... certainly not bad enough to veto... just my 2cents...
Question 7: I have a real difficult...
Posted by KURT FERNSTROM | Jul. 30 at 01:23 PM
Me too. If you plug in the names from the mock draft in the magazine, Team A trades Peterson, Galloway and Chester Taylor for McGahee, Colston and LenDale White. I don't see how that's a ripoff trade, or how Team A's resulting lineup of: Big Ben McGahee Bush Fitzgerald Colston Bowe is so overwhelming that it would win the league every year. Plus, it's weird that the guy is claiming team A is ripping off team B, but the vote is corrupt because all of team B's buddies okayed it. Unless the father, brother and friends of Team B's owner all secretly hate him.