Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 01 at 10:25 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Auction strategy question. Each year when preparing for my auction, I prepare calculations on how much each player is worth based on your projected stats. Should I use those calculated values as my primary decision-making source during the auction? Or should I also attempt to integrate our league's prior years auction price history into my preparation? For example, the calculated value of the top few TEs is always much higher than what people have historically been willing to pay.
Ed Weiss [PARSIPPANY, NJ]
A:
We just finished a new tool for generating auction prices last weekend. It’s available to everyone who orders any one of our August newsletters (just $6.00 – operators are standing by!). With this tool, you take about 5 minutes to enter in all of the specs for your league – scoring system, number of teams, number of players who’ll be purchased at each position, and it spits out exact values for each player – right down to the penny. And this tool should work particularly well for you, because you have some historical information from past auctions. So you’ll be able to put in specs that account for owners not wanting to pay for tight ends. As part of the 5-minute setup process, you have to identify for the computer how many players at each position will go for more than league minimum. At tight end, for example, my initial guess would be that 9 of the 12 starting tight ends would go for more than the $1.00 minimum. But you’ve done many auctions in your league, and you’re confident that you’ll be able to get your No. 6 tight end for $1.00. So you can put him in as your baseline player, and that will automatically be reflected in the values of the top 5 (they won’t be worth as much). Try it out. I think it’s just what you’re looking for.
Question 2:
I am in a point per reception league and was wondering what your thoughts are on Chris Johnson. He looks like a Brian Westbrook type, has blazing speed, and good hands they say. The Titans want to use him like Reggie Bush and are making special plays for him. Do you think he would be worth a 5th-round pick (our keeper round, meaning that we get that player and that player only to start our team the next year) or is that way too big of a risk?
MICHAEL KOLTON [GREEN BAY, WI]
A:
I wouldn’t take him that high. I think there will be better options available. I like Johnson. He’s the fastest running back in the league, so I think he’ll score some long touchdowns. But I don’t think see him as similar to Westbrook. I don’t think Johnson has the same kind of vision and cutting ability. He might be more like Jerious Norwood of the Falcons – a straight-line burner. And in Tennessee’s scheme, I don’t believe that Johnson is going to be catching tons of dumpoff balls like Westbrook. No way, I say, will Johnson catch 60 passes in either of the next two years. Nice enough player, and there’s some upside there. But I don’t think he’s your guy.
Question 3:
I am in a 14 team league that drafts team quarterbacks instead of individuals. So instead of drafting Derek Anderson, I would draft Cleveland QBs and have Anderson, Quinn and Ken Dorsey on my roster. On game day we are allowed to start the starter and select one backup (from the same team) to start as well. This protects us if the starting QB goes out on the 3rd play with an injury. How would you rank team quarterbacks under this system?
DANIEL FORD [ROCHESTER, NY]
A:
If you go by 6 points for TD passes and 1 point for every 20 passing yards (and giving no weight to rushing production by quarterbacks) I would project the top 10 passing teams to be (in order): New England, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Dallas, Philadelphia, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Denver and Cleveland.
Question 4:
Every year you get questions about what is the best draft position in a xx team league? I think you should just add that into the internet supplement or cheat sheets leading up to the season. Of course, you know, now I'm going to ask... best spots (after the obvious) in a 14 team yardage league? Thanks!!!
Corey Gaulrapp [ABERDEEN, SD]
A:
For a 14-team league, using a standard-type scoring system, I see every team with at least 257 points of captured production after six rounds. And by “captured” production, I’m talking about stats above and beyond the norm. I would assume that you can get a 113-point kicker relatively cheaply, for example, so Stephen Gostkowski (123 points) would give you only 10 points of “captured” production. With the philosophy applying to all picks and positions, the worst draft spot would be No. 9, with 257 points. The top 6 spots would belong to the teams that drafted first through sixth (in that order), with those teams finishing 112, 47, 36, 30, 29 and 10 points ahead of team No. 9. Then, not a whole lot of difference between the other seven teams. Computer says to order them 14-12-13-7-11-10-8. All of this, of course, is without factoring in human beings. Michael Murillo, for example, promises that he’s not going to select LaDainian Tomlinson if he has the No. 1 pick; that would throw a gigantic monkey wrench into things.
Question 5:
I expect people will always contend that such-and-such a player is ranked too high. However, I am surprised how many times the main argument is, "That player scored all his fantasy points in a handful of games - he's not consistent enough." I, for one, don't necessarily care about that at all unless it is an injury situation. In fact, I typically would rather have the guy that has some big games rather than the one who trudges along at 8 points every week. How closely do you observe this and how does it affect your rankings?
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
I occasionally notice that the bulk of a player's production is based on a couple of good games -- for a wide receiver, maybe 5 of his 7 TDs came in two games. Or for a running back, maybe both of his big games came against hopelessly over-matched opposition. Kolby Smith and Chester Taylor, for example, had monster games last year against an Oakland defense that was simply garbage against the run at the time. I tend to move those kind of players down on my board. I'm more impressed by a player being consistently pretty good against better opposition.
Question 6:
Ian, can I ask two questions? One is normal and the other is, uh... odd. First, what is the chance that Dominic Rhodes will steal the goal line duties from Joseph Addai? Second, and straight from the trash, I came down to eat breakfast this morning and my wife's gossip magazine was lying on the counter and opened to an article about the huge love between Jessica Simpson and Tony Romo; now the question: shouldn't all current and possible Romo owners be concerned? The guy standing next to her in the pictures looks more like the guy who led his team to just six points at home against Philly late last year, rather than the one who lit up the Packers just two weeks before.
JOSH OBUSEK [PITTSBURGH, PA]
A:
I expect Dominic Rhodes to get maybe 20-30 percent of the work in Indianapolis, including goal-line work. I just don't see Joseph Addai as a heavy-duty, indestructible running back. If the Colts score about 16 rushing TDs (which I think is a good estimate for them), Addai gets maybe 10-11 of those scores. As for Romo, I thought that he and Simpson were on the outs. I’m surprised to hear that it’s still on. So maybe that’s something we should be working into our draft boards. But Romo has been involved in a lot of that high-profile off-field stuff in the past – judging at Miss Universe contests and dating other celebrities – and it didn’t appear to affect his play last season.
Question 7:
Hi Ian. Play in an ancient 12 team keeper league. We are TD only, and have no bench: QB, RB, WR, FLX, FLX, TE, K, DEF. So in this format, only 12 QB's are drafted. This means there are always plenty of QB's sitting out on the waiver wire. How does this rules twist affect your TD only QB rankings? Would you still rank "the big 4" in the top 13? P.S. passing TD's worth 6. Thank you!
Gregory Wells [SHORELINE, WA]
A:
In that type of format, with the ability to use a mix-and-match approach at quarterback, the only quarterback I would be excited about selecting would be Tom Brady. There are a lot of good quarterbacks out there, and I think I'd rather have a lesser one, giving me the flexibility to hop on somebody like Aaron Rodgers if he gets on a hot streak.
Question 8:
Hey Ian , great magazine again this year . I have been buying and subscribing since the first one in 1987 was it ? I drafted Rueben Mayes pretty high that year.. Need your thoughts on a problem we have this year with our league now entering its 22 year. We have a 8 team league with a new entering this year to make it 9.Teams get one freeze from last year and pick in reverse order of finish. We use a snake draft system. We have decided to put the new team in the last draft pick slot but we do not know how to treat the freeze situation with him. We dont want to give him 3 picks in a row ( 9,10 then freeze) .. Is there a solution ?
JOHN MARINO [BINGHAMTON, NY]
A:
I hate new owners as much as next guy, but you are going to let him have some players, right? With it being a keeper league, you're already preventing him from having any of the first 16 picks (8 keepers and 8 draft picks). At some point, you've got to concede that he is in the league and let me select some players. (And props, by the way, for pulling out the name "Rueben Mayes". Awesome rookie year for the Saints -- 1,353 yards and 8 TDs -- and a solid second season before injuries kind of derailed his career).
Question 9:
Ian, every year I always like to see what players you are targeting in your mock drafts and auctions. In 08-09, please give us some names that might make their way on to your teams.
Chris Tkachuk [Merchantville, NJ]
A:
I know I'm higher on Ryan Longwell and Mike Nugent at kicker than others. I think those guys are serviceable late-round kickers. Jay Cutler. Thomas Jones. I'm not yet at the other positions.
Question 10:
would you trade Lee evans @ 11 mill in 08 and 14 mill in 09 for Steve Smith @ 28 mill or Chad johnson @ 27 mill for 08 last year of contract. Leaving me with about 45 mill to sign about 10 players?
Gary Wool [Philadelphia, PA]
A:
Man. I don't know. I'm not really a numbers guy. Smith being valued at a little over twice as much as Evans seems fair. I would rather have Smith at 28 than Johnson at 27, I can tell you that.
Question 11:
In your Philadelphia Eagles capsule, you mention that Brian Westbrook "piled up a league-high 2,104 yards from scrimmage." Yet, when you add up his 2007 yardage stats on page 189 of the Index, it adds up to 1,916 yards - 1,217 rushing plus 699 receiving. What gives?
GREGG STEINBERG [JACKSONVILLE, FL]
A:
There’s a major error on that page. The Eagles team stats there are their 2006 numbers, not their numbers from last year. Apologies. The corrected version of the page is posted on the front page of our website. To get it, click here.
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Question 1: Auction strategy question. Each year...
Posted by CURT GOLDGRABE | Aug. 01 at 02:50 PM
Our league allows each returning team to keep one player from the previous season. New teams are allowed to pick one player before the draft starts, thereby giving the new team a "keeper", just like all the other teams have before the draft starts. In a serpentine draft, the new team then has to draft in the last position, so they have the advantage of "keeping" the hot new player, but also the rightful place of drafting after everyone else.
Question 8: Hey Ian , great magazine...
Posted by CURT GOLDGRABE | Aug. 01 at 02:52 PM
Our league allows each returning team to keep one player from the previous season. New teams are allowed to pick one player before the draft starts, thereby giving the new team a "keeper", just like all the other teams have before the draft starts. In a serpentine draft, the new team then has to draft in the last position, so they have the advantage of "keeping" the hot new player, but also the rightful place of drafting after everyone else.
Question 8: Hey Ian , great magazine...
Posted by BRYAN BERTSCH | Aug. 02 at 10:36 AM
I don't know how you are going to structure your 9 team league schedule, but I have been playing in a 9 team league for years and we break it down to three divisions, three teams each. Each week you play two opponents, and score it hockey style: winner gets two "division points", middle man gets one and loser gets the goose. We have four playoff teams, the winner of each division (according to division points) and the wild card, the team with the highest "total points" of the non-division winners. The system works great and is highly comeptitive. Plus with the wild card winner being based on total points rather than division points, it helps make sure the deserving teams get in.