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Posted Aug. 26 at 07:50 AM

Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.



Question 1:

Which of the Jet WR's {Coles & Cotchery} has more value now that Brett's back there slinging away?


Eugene Hitt [GARRISON, NY]

A:

I like Cotchery more -- a lot more. Coles has sat out most of August, which hurts him. And Cotchery is a downfield receiver, so he does better when he's got a quarterback with a strong arm. Pennington, I believe, has the weakest arm of any starting quarterback in the league -- maybe any quarterback period. So when he was at quarterback last year, Cotchery averaged only 12 yards per catch. When Kellen Clemens, with a stronger arm, was at quarterback, Cotchery was up at 16.8 yards per catch. Now, they've got Favre, who's getting up there in years but can still fling it. I expect Favre to turn Cotchery into another Greg Jennings; they'll probably hook up for at least three touchdowns from 40-plus yards. I saw Favre and Pennington play their exhibition games back-to-back on the weekend. Both were impressive, but a remarkable difference in velocity. Favre's passes get their awfully quick, while Pennington, with the wet-noodle arm, is trying to pick and peck with little short passes.


Question 2:

Why do you have Warner so low on the QB list if he is going to be the starter and he put up the best numbers last year in the last eight games in regards to TDs and yards per game?


Ian Nelson [Ft. Lauderdale, FL]

A:

I like Warner. I am not, however, ready to put him ahead of guys like Eli Manning, Jay Cutler and Matt Hasselbeck. He's 37 years old. He's had a lot of injuries (hit him, and he'll get hurt). And I don't think it's realistic to expect Warner to play at the same level. And can you count on him playing more than 13 games? Ken Whisenhunt maintains that he's not even sure Warner is going to be the starter ahead of Matt Leinart. Despite his big numbers at the end of last season, there are some flaws with Warner's game. He actually turned the ball over more often than any quarterback in the league last year -- an average of one turnover per 21 plays, which was #1 among guys who handled the ball at least 300 times on passing and rushing attempts. And Warner hasn't been a winner; he's gone 2-8, 1-4 and 5-6 as a starter the last three years. I'm intrigued by Warner's upside, but there is substantial risk involved.


Question 3:

Why has Cleveland defense/special teams dropped so far in the most recent update (8/2/08) for TD only league? I thought they had been #3 pretty much all preseason.


David Allen [LINCOLN, NE]

A:

Josh Cribbs has a high ankle sprain. Could be out until October, and he might not have his usual explosiveness for most of the year. That's huge -- on par with the Bears losing Devin Hester. Short of Hester, we had Cribbs as the top return guy in the league. It's also becoming apparent that the Browns are going to have one of the worst secondaries in the league.


Question 4:

Do you have any updated Dynasty rankings? I'm participating in an inaugural 12 team PPR league that has three keepers (keep 'em forever if you want to). So I'm wondering who you would draft higher as a keeper -- Brees or Romo? And how many younger WR's would you rank above Terrell Owens knowing you could potentially keep them for the rest of their careers?


BARRY BROWN [Columbus, OH]

A:

Rankings for keeper and dynasty leagues are notoriously difficult. How does one, for example, measure production today versus production two years from now? Kevin Smith and Matt Forte, for example, will outproduce Rashard Mendenhall this year. But Mendenhall should be better two years from now and have a more productive career overall. I suppose we should handle the players just like stocks -- maybe discount future stats by 10 percent per year (making the stats for this season more valuable). But there's also a wide variety of scoring systems and league rules. In some dynasty leagues, for example, you get to keep everybody. In others, you keep only three guys. And is there any penalty for keeping players? That would affect how they were rated as well. I think you're starting to see why we don't publish a Dynasty Rankings product. As for your league, I would look at this year for Brees and Romo. It's unusual to protect a quarterback in a league -- it's a relatively easy position to fill -- so I would assume that there's an 80 percent chance that player won't be on your team next season. As for Owens, he is an older guy, so I'd rather select a younger player who has more productive seasons left -- Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall.


Question 5:

I have the 4th pick in a draft tomorrow. I want to take SJack but Moss and Brady will be there to. I know leagues are not won in the first round, but who would you take by accounting for his holdout?


SCOTT TINSMAN [LAONA, WI]

A:

I don't think Jackson's holdout is going to be a significant factor. He'll have had almost three weeks to get ready. He should be fine. If you're locked into selecting a running back with that pick, Jackson should be your guy.


Question 6:

Deuce McAllister looks like he has zero burst right now. He took a hit the other night against Cincinnati where the DB went right at his knee, as if he had just read his injury report. I have no idea why McAllister shouldn't get cut. What are the chances Pierre Thomas gets to split time with Bush from week 1? I think Pierre Thomas may be a legitimate #2/#3 RB in most formats by mid-season. Thoughts?


Jered Ottenwess [NEWBERRY, FL]

A:

I'm a Pierre Thomas fan. I had him higher than McAllister for most of the offseason. But it doesn't look like it's going to play out that way -- at least not early in the season. Thomas has been generally unimpressive in the exhibition games, and he now appears to have fallen behind Aaron Stecker on the depth chart. McAllister, meanwhile, seems to be the clear No. 2 (actually, the clear co-starter with Reggie Bush). Plus, he's one of the leaders of that team. Last week, President Bush was in New Orleans, and the Saints had Drew Brees and McAllister greet him and pose for photos. It would be kind of weird, wouldn't it, to use a player in that kind of role, then cut him two weeks later? Thomas may develop into something at some point this year, but I expect to have only a minimal role in September.


Question 7:

I have the second overall pick. TD-only league. Am I crazy for considering Marion Barber over Adrian Peterson? I am thinking he will score a similar amount of TDs and is a safer pick (better team and QB). What do you think?


THOMAS DIVERIO [RAMSEY, NJ]

A:

The Cowboys will play an easier schedule as well. Durability looks like a wash -- they're both high-contact runners who are unlikely to make it through 16 games without getting hurt. Maybe you should trade down a spot or two? You might still be able to get Barber a few spots later, and perhaps pick up an 8th-round draft pick?


Question 8:

Steve Slaton vs Tim Hightower. Who do you like better for this year, and long term? I was hoping to get Slaton in one of the last rounds for my final RB, but he was stolen away right before I picked, so I settled for Hightower. At first I was disappointed, but with Slaton's size, and Hightower having an aging and unwanted Edge in front of him, I think Hightower might be the better long term RB.


SCOTT BRADY [COLLEGEVILLE, PA]

A:

I find myself being drawn to Hightower as well. He looks like a real nice player, and he's in a good spot. I get the feeling that one way or another (injury or lineup change) Hightower will be a starter at the end of the season.


Question 9:

I've just used your August 25th updates to draft in my keeper league, hopefully everything works out well. I do have another draft on Friday though. I have the 3rd pick in a 12 team league. I'm pretty sure the first two picks will be LT & AP. The dilema I face is that all TDs are worth 6 points, including TD passes. I realize this makes Brady's value a lot higher, and he projects to score more points in this format than any back I could take. Is #3 too early for Brady though? If I take him that means I won't be able to grab a RB until pick #22, and by my projections that doesn't leave me with a great option for my #1. Additionally, I almost have to use my 3rd rounder on my second back which means my #1 WR won't be picked until near the end of the 4th round.


Jeff Fell [Sarnia, ON]

A:

I'd go with Brady. And I would not take two running backs with picks 2.10 and 3.03. I think you'll be better if you select a butt-kicker wide receiver. You will be able to get an adequate running back down at 4.10 or 5.03. I did a 12-team draft on Sunday with the guys at fanexfootball.com (actually, I had a guy draft for me off a list, since I was working on the update). I went with three wide receivers in the 2nd through 4th rounds. The running back I selected with pick 5.02 to be my second running back is Kevin Smith. I think he'll be OK. Other running backs I've seen selected late-late in the fourth or early in the fifth include Matt Forte, Selvin Young, Thomas Jones and Michael Turner. I think you need to avoid being overcome a running back panic attack. Stay true to your board -- you'll get an acceptable second running back.


Question 10:

My draft is Monday and it is a dynasty league. McFadden, Forte, Stewart and Kevin Smith will all be gone by the time I pick at 5. Do I play it safe with R. Mendenhall or take a chance on T. Hightower? Mendenhall has looked shaky this preseason.


BILL GALLAGHER [LANCASTER, NY]

A:

If I were in your shoes, I would select Rashard Mendenhall. Good franchise with a history of success. And he should be a good player for them for a lot of years. I will concede, however, that there's a chance that you'll live to regret passing on Hightower. If Hightower and Mendenhall both had been selected in the second round, you definitely would select the Arizona back.


Question 11:

One flaw in my team after our draft was WR depth. After hearing about Chris Henry catching on with the Bengals yet again, I picked him up and have him stashed on my bench. With Ocho's current injury and the possibility of it being more long term, where would you rank Chris Henry among WRs?


Mike Koffski [CHICAGO, IL]

A:

I like the Henry pick. I'd rather have a high-upside guy like Henry than a lower-level start that you know will never finish with more than 800 yards or 5 TDs. If Johnson gets sidelined and Henry is plugged into that spot, I think you'll have yourself a legit starting receiver. Too bad he's got to sit out the first four games with the league suspension.


Question 12:

Hello Ian, My team is in trouble. I have Brady, Garcia, LenDale White, Perry, Bradshaw, McAllister, T.O., Boldin, Gaffney, Ginn, Watson, Miller plus Def's. I am considering trading T.O. and McAllister for Bradon Marshall and Brandon Jacobs. Then I will at least have some starting RB's and decent WR's. What do you think?


Quentin Maes [Allendale, MI]

A:

I'll sign off on that trade. Marshall might be better than Owens, and Jacobs definitely blows away McAllister.


Question 13:

I am in a keeper league. We draft IDPs, so please offer up a few of those.


STEVE [PHOENIX, AZ]

A:

I'd go with Jerod Mayo No. 1. He was the 10th pick of the draft, and he's going to a team that know how to develop and utilize linebackers. I imagine Bill Belichick and the boys will turn him into a solid player. The Jets selected Vernon Gholston with the 6th pick. He's the best pass rusher in this draft; we'll just have to see if the Jets can get him dialed in. The other rookies I'd be looking at would be Keith Rivers, the linebacker selected by Cincinnati, and Leodis McKelvin of Buffalo, a cornerback with return ability.


Readers' Comments

Question 9: I've just used your August...

Posted by SCOTT SACHS | Aug. 26 at 01:32 PM

Jeff, listen to Ian on this one. In my 12 team draft, I had 7th pick, with 6 RBs taken ahead of me. My top 7 picks: Brady, Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Witten, Forte, Cotchery, Garrard.

Question 9: I've just used your August...

Posted by Andrew Napoli | Aug. 28 at 01:10 AM

I'd go with Brady as well. He would be a total monster in a system that awarded 6 pts per thrown TD. Even with a drop in his thrown TD production, he's still projected to throw 35+ TDs this year. No RB is even going to come close to that. Peyton Manning's knee is a concern, and the other QBs will be lucky to throw in the low 30s and high 20s TDs. Brady will give you real separation from the pack. There are value RBs out there. In my league I had 1st overall pick (took LT naturally) but went WR-WR in rounds 2-3 (Housh & Welker) and then came back in later rounds with DeAngelo Williams, Ricky Williams, and Chris Perry. All of those dudes might be starters. If you're worried about a committee, then take both guys (i.e., go with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in back-to-back rounds).

Question 10: My draft is Monday and...

Posted by ALAN ESCOTT | Aug. 27 at 01:56 AM

I have the 9th pick and I think I should take a quarterback as we award 6 points for a td throw. How much higher does that move Manning, Brees, and Romo in the top 35 board? Thanks Al(Cleveland)

Question 13: I am in a keeper...

Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 26 at 08:41 AM

I'll add a couple, and I'll make the same assumption as Ian, that you're only talking about rookies. Giants beat writers have raved about safety Kenny Phillips, even though he's not certain to start; they think he's going to be a very good pro. The Jaguars haven't signed Derrick Harvey yet, their top pick, so maybe their second-rounder, Quentin Groves, another pass-rushing defensive end, will turn into something pretty good. And finally, the Titans have been very pleased with defensive end Jason Jones, who could be very productive right away.

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