Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 11 at 02:07 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Please give me some encouraging news on Maurice Jones-Drew. I ended up picking him in 2 leagues, as he was a Top 10 RB in most of your preseason updates. But then, after one bad game, he dropped all the way down to No.20 on your redrafted? So tell me, what dropped him down so far? The loss of the offensive lineman? Was it his lack of touches, or just that Jacksonville looked that bad?
BRAD MARTINEZ [MARRERO, LA]
A:
Also good to hear from my old friend (Brad and I sat together at a WCOFF auction in Las Vegas a few years, in which I got caught driving up the price on Marshall Faulk). I wouldn't give up on Jones-Drew. I think he'll be fine. I still see him being pretty much the same runner and receiver everyone expected. And he's also their goal-runner (he actually got robbed of a touchdown Sunday, I thought, on a carry that he was ruled down at the half-inch line). He drops a few spots because of the offensive line problems, and also because it looks like they're not going to use him on kickoff returns this year. Prior to Sunday, I had him projected to score a touchdown on a kickoff return this year. Now, that touchdown has been removed, helping some other backs scoot ahead of him (my rankings are purely statistically based).
Question 2:
Quick question on your redrafter: As an owner of Marshawn Lynch I'm curious how Fred Jackson's stat line per game is higher than Lynch's (103 yards .67 TDs versus 94 yards and .64 TDs). Is this an error or are the Bills starting the wrong RB???
BRYAN BERTSCH [MINNEAPOLIS, MN]
A:
If you carefully look through the stat projection file, you'll see this on a few teams -- maybe a half-dozen running backs around the league. I think Lynch is a better player than Jackson. But right now, when they're both healthy, Jackson is getting about a third of the workload. He'll get about half as many carries and touchdowns as Lynch, and he might catch just as many passes. Should Lynch get hurt, however, I think the team would scrap the committee approach and use Jackson in essentially a full-time role. That's why it's my belief that if Lynch sprains an ankle and is lost for two-three weeks, Jackson's numbers will actually be a little bit better.
Question 3:
How do you rate the K every week? I drafted my K (Kasay) in the last Round and since our drop/adds are $1 (in a high dollar league) , I am thinking of just drop/adding every week (looking for an available K according to your list,) For instance in Week 1, Akers is available (for $1) and Kasay is ranked last. We have a 10 Owner league so at best only 12 K are taken every week . What do ya think?
PATRICK MAHONEY [CHESAPEAK BCH, MD]
A:
Sounds like a good strategy to me. Now for last week, it backfired and probably cost you a few points -- Kasay knocked in four field goals against the Chargers. But over the course of the season, you'll come out ahead. In general, rather than focusing on the quality of the kicker (leg strength, accuracy, etc.), you'll want to focus on the quality of the matchup. Teams that win games tend to score more kicking points, so the better teams -- the teams most likely to win in any given week -- will tend to have the highest-ranked kickers on our board.
Question 4:
Ian, You've done it again you marvelous bast...! Tom Brady on the cover and the jinx hits yet again. I had a bad feeling about him and didn't draft him in any of my leagues. Now I look like a friggin' genius instead of the imbecile who passed on the wonderboy!
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
Who'd a thunk it? You just don't expect quarterbacks like Brady, Favre and the Mannings to get hurt -- they don't get hit that often, and they don't run. But Brady's gone, and that sure changes the fantasy landscape, doesn't it?
Question 5:
Thanks for responding to my question about the 6 point passing TD and throwing up the poll. At this mornings count 52% of the voters use a 6 point passing TD scoring system in their leagues. Will this be enough to sway you in moving your ratings to a 6 point pass TD scale?
IAN SAUNDERS [COCONUT CREEK, FL]
A:
It's something we're looking into. You may see a change in our structure, or you may see additional Cheat Sheets offered. Right now, the product is coming with seven different Cheat Sheets already. Three of those are of the duplicate variety, showing full names but not projected stats. And one is a composite Cheat Sheet, showing two different systems on the same page (primarily for guys who receive the product by fax). We could either add another page or two (potentially putting us up to 9 different Cheat Sheets), replace some of the Cheat Sheets, or change some of the existing scoring systems. We're working on it. To get listings that are exactly tailored to your league's scoring system, of course, you can go to the "Custom Scoring Rankings" section of the website.
Question 6:
In various newsletters over the last two years you were extremely high on Michael Turner when he backed up LT. This year, when he finally got to be a starting RB, you were relatively cool on him in your rankings due to him being on the Atlanta Falcons. I realize it is only Week 1, but do you feel it is sometimes a mistake to over emphasize a team's prospects over an individual's skills?
Ed Weiss [PARSIPPANY, NJ]
A:
So far, he's been better than I expected. He had the two long runs in the preseason game against the Colts, and then he had the monster game against the Lions. Let's wait and see, however, how he does against a real run defense. He could be this year's Larry Johnson -- a good running back trapped on a lousy team. (Also: what do you make of those thighs? From the waist down, Turner looks like an offensive lineman. I can't believe he can run that fast with those legs).
Question 7:
Is Denver WR Royal for real? It was just one game, but he looked great (admittedly B.Marshall was missing and Oakland is a team in disarray). What should we expect?
DAVID SMITH [WALLS, MS]
A:
Royal's big game, I think, reminds us that in the NFL, pass rushers are more important than cornerbacks. The Raiders have the high-priced and talented tandem back there -- DeAngelo Hall and Nnamdi Asomugha -- but you can only ask cornerbacks to cover people for so long. Give a quarterback 5 seconds to throw, and he'll find somebody. As for Royal, I think he'll be starting and producing for a long time. He's got speed and moves, so I expect the Broncos to use him in a variety of ways -- end-arounds, flanker screens, etc. I don't expect him to catch 9 passes in any more games this year, but I think he'll be productive.
Question 8:
I have Gates as my tight end and McMichael as his back-up. Zach Miller is still available on waivers. Would you pick up Miller and drop McMichael?
DAVID BOZZELLI [INDIANAPOLIS, IN]
A:
I think they have similar value. I've got Zach Miller slightly higher on my board. McMichael will be used more this year; he caught 5 passes for 77 yards in the Rams' first game. Miller appears to have a good rapport with JaMarcus Russell. In the two games Russell has started, Miller has caught 8 and 4 passes. I think he'll lead that team in TD catches.
Question 9:
I drafted David Garrard to back up Cutler. After how awful the Jags looked and their O-line issues should I drop Garrard for one of the following? (rank in order you would incase there are multiple and I get scooped) Warner, Cassel, Edwards, Pennington, Garcia or T. Jackson.
JEFF WEILER [CLIO, MI]
A:
I'd just hang onto Garrard (and I've got him on about three of my teams, and that's what I'm doing). I think he'll be fine. He'll be pretty good as a passer, and then he'll add on that rushing production as well. I don't see any reason to suspect that he suddenly can't play. The one guy I'd consider sneaking ahead of him would be Kurt Warner. Warner isn't as durable but has more upside.
Question 10:
Ian ... help needed please ... I'm jumping through hoops to work a trade for Brandon Marshall. With Brees as my QB, do I give up Matt Cassel for Marshall? All other positions are solid and I do have Randy Moss.
Joe Nordstrand [Dickinson, TX]
A:
I would move Cassel in a heartbeat to get Marshall. Despite the big game by Eddie Royal on Monday night, I see Marshall as the hot receiver in Denver. I think he'll have a big, big year. As for Cassel, a few weeks back, I wasn't sure he was even going to make the team. Is he even going to be New England's quarterback in another month? I don't know. Maybe he'll be OK, but you'll definitely never start him ahead of Drew Brees.
Question 11:
Going with the rankings I started the run on defenses with San Diego. Our league awards 1 pt/sack and 1 pt/int. along with 6 for return/def. tds. We also get 3 points if they give up less than 10 points. I was not that impressed with their showing in Week 1 and with Merriman being out I'm wondering what the future holds. Should I grab Buffalo or Tennessee instead?
Craig Gray [BEMIDJI, MN]
A:
I watched the entire game against Carolina, and I wasn't impressed either. Didn't look like an elite defense. The Titans looked very good against Jacksonville, and the Bills have better kick returners. But I'm too conservative to get rid of the Chargers this early, unless it would be via a trade (with me getting something in return). And I wouldn't want to give away those four upcoming games against Kansas City and Oakland.
Question 12:
I am in a 12 team PPR league. I ended up drafting multiple Bengals players because they slipped in the draft and appeared to have a lot of value (Housh I got in the end of the 2nd round, but Carson Palmer I took in the 6th round, and Chris Perry was grabbed as my 4th RB in like round 12 or 13).
The Bengals offense looked and performed miserably Week 1 against a Ravens defense that most experts didn't think was all that special anymore. Worse, my other starting WR is Wes Welker (who now has Matt Cassel throwing to him). Needless to say, I got blown out on week one. But should I hang tight, or hit the panic button looking to unload these Bengals + Welker or pick up replacement players?
Andrew Napoli [SPRINGFIELD, VA]
A:
I'd hang tight for this week. Cincinnati could be OK (or even better) this week against Tennessee. When these teams played at Paul Brown Stadium last year, the Bengals won 35-6, with Chad Johnson -- er, "Ocho Cinco" -- catching 3 TDs and a season-high 12 passes.
Question 13:
It seems like there is yet another head coach that will now play with the fantasy football world and his injury reports. With Willis McGahee sitting out last weekend (thank God I didn't play him), I am wondering what to do with him for week two. He has a nice matchup against Houston but plays in the late game so I am worried that Harbaugh will play the same games this weekend. I can play Fred Taylor at Noon against Buffalo and forget the unavoidable headache I will get waiting to hear about McGahee, or I can roll the dice on him and slide Andre Hall or Steve Slaton in if I need to. Is there any information on what happened last week and what do you think Willis' prospects are for playing this weekend?
Jason Kurvers [EAU CLAIRE, WI]
A:
I don't think there's any way that McGahee will be a full-time player. He's still working his way back from knee surgery. I would go with the player who'll be in there on every down -- Slaton.
Question 14:
Damon Huard will likely be replacing Brodie Croyle (separated shoulder). Obviously, the O-line is still problematic at best, but at least the more experienced Huard should provide a threat of a passing game. Do you expect to see any significant uptick in LJ's production as a result?
Paul Desimone [HAYWARD, CA]
A:
Agreed. And they're also at home against the hapless Raiders this week. I expect Johnson will post his best numbers of the season in this game.
Question 15:
Ian - I'm sure all the focus this week will be on Brady. Our Brady owner has offered me Roy Williams for either Favre or A. Rogers. Not sure which QB I should keep, can you help?
Craig Gray [BEMIDJI, MN]
A:
I believe Rodgers has a little more upside, but Favre is more likely to stay healthy for 16 games.
Question 16:
Long time subscriber. Love the mag, website, and PDFs. My QBs are M. Hasselbeck and David Garrard (ouch, I know). My starting RBs are LT (this year's 1st overall pick) and Lynch (protected from last year). My backup RB is Chris Johnson (4th rounder). Would you trade Johnson for Jake Delhomme and DeAngelo Williams?
ED HAYES [LISLE, IL]
A:
I would do the trade. I like Johnson. He's looked great so far -- preseason and in the opener. But DeAngelo Williams also appears to be headed for a good season. He doesn't have the same kind of speed as Johnson, but he'll probably get more touches. And with this deal, you get to add another quality quarterback into the mix. Go for it.
Question 17:
Who should I handcuff to Steven Jackson?
RICK CARPENTER [CAMARILLO, CA]
A:
I think it would be mostly Antonio Pittman, but probably Brian Leonard would be worked in as well. As poorly as the Rams played in week 1, I wouldn't expect their No. 2 tailback to be a significant player in a starting role.
Question 18:
HELP! What is up with the Jags running game, especially MJD? Five carries for 13 yards, including one run of 11 yards? He is my #1 RB. Please tell me his ankle will heal quickly, that they won't play the Titans again for a long while, and that he will come around? (I also have a better guess for the first QB injured. HINT: AFC East.)
MICHAEL HAMER [SPRINGFIELD, PA]
A:
I wouldn't worry too much about Maurice Jones-Drew. He'll be fine. Good runner. Will catch lots of passes. Carries at the goal line. Has the speed to score from long range. On Sunday, he (and the Jaguars) just happened to run into one of the league's best run defenses -- and one that knows their scheme and personnel. Jones-Drew, as you may recall, also got off to a slow start last year. He ran for only 32 yards on 7 carries in his first game last season (also against the Titans), then ran for a total of 68 yards on 26 attempts the next two weeks -- and with no touchdowns in those three games. The Jaguars are dealing with some offensive line issues -- they'll be missing both guards and their center this week -- but they'll get things turned around.
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Question 1: Please give me some encouraging...
Posted by Justin Howe | Sep. 11 at 04:57 PM
words on Brandon Marshall. I did my rankings on a purely statistical basis and, as such, drafted Marshall pretty high (we start 3 WRs and give 0.5 per reception, so I took Andre Johnson at #15 and Marshall at #31). I did so on the projection of 10.5 targets per game, on the assumption that, at best, Royal would only steal 5 or so targets a game. Should I worry now that Royal is the real deal? Is 95-100 catches now out of reach for Marshall?
Question 1: Please give me some encouraging...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Sep. 11 at 09:39 PM
That ruling on Jones-Drew's supposed non-touchdown cost me two wins last week, one by 1 point and one by 5. I realize nobody else cares, but I have to vent somewhere. It seems every group of officials has one guy who rules things down short of the goal line unless the guy is lying with his entire body inside the end zone. Annoying.
Question 1: Please give me some encouraging...
Posted by Jay Skills | Sep. 12 at 12:05 AM
I drafted Marshall high based on this site's recommendations. I also picked up Royal as a FA right before week 1 and actually started him :-) Anyway, you've got to expect them both to be productive as this really looks like the coming out party year for Cutler. He has looked really sharp and everyone's going to benefit. I'd compare this to some of those other rare scenarios where the #1 and #2 WR have value, like a couple years back with Harrison and Wayne in Indy, Holt and Bruce for the Rams, or even Taylor and Rice for the Niners. Ok, maybe getting a little carried away, but you know what I'm saying ?
Question 1: Please give me some encouraging...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Sep. 12 at 12:54 AM
I wouldn't worry too much about Marshall. I'm sure he'll still catch a ton of balls. Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey used to co-exist in that offense nicely. I expect Royal to be a big-play field stretcher, and Marshall to maybe catch 100 balls in the final 15 games.
Question 1: Please give me some encouraging...
Posted by David Grace | Sep. 12 at 02:58 AM
This is the second time I have seen someone reference last season's game as a reason to start Bengals players this week, but the point that Ian is missing is that Haynesworth didn't play in the 35-6 game. The Titans D is a completely different creature with him in the game. If the Ravens D can shut down the Bengals, the Titans will too.
Question 5: Thanks for responding to my...
Posted by TOM PECORA | Sep. 12 at 05:20 AM
Yes plz add a cheat sheet for 6 pt touchdowns. MOre importantly, it would help next year in determining value for draft day. It is sometimes difficult to gauge a player's worth across positions (WB vs WWR in a PPR league) where your material does a great job to compare players within positions (WR vs WR). Ya dig?
Question 5: Thanks for responding to my...
Posted by PATRICK MAHONEY | Sep. 12 at 10:38 AM
our league scores 5 pts for TD passes and I am fine using the customized feature. Pls do not change from 4 to 6 pts. Thanks Pat
Question 5: Thanks for responding to my...
Posted by CRAIG APANA | Sep. 12 at 04:20 PM
I knew it all along - more leagues give 6 pts for TD passes than not. But I didn't want to say it!! Because now the rest of my opponents will get to see your adjusted rankings (if you decide to do it next year) instead of counting on the basic products and potentially missing the "point". Get it?!?! Leave it out! ;)
Question 10: Ian ... help needed please...
Posted by Ranajit Sarkar | Sep. 12 at 06:40 AM
Are you serious? What moron would trade Marshall for Cassell? And did you really need Ian's help on this one? That is a no-brainer!
Question 11: Going with the rankings I...
Posted by Craig Rinne | Sep. 12 at 03:24 AM
Re: the Chargers defense, we at least have to wait and see if Tucker lives up to the hype and can adequately replace Lights Out. Too much talent on that defense/whole team to give up on them yet. And I agree with Jay Skills (and Ian's earlier rankings) about Cutler--he looks ready to move up big time, and I'm happy I have both him and Marshall on my team.
Question 12: I am in a 12...
Posted by Andrew Napoli | Sep. 16 at 11:11 PM
Ian, should I start panicking now? I benched Carson Palmer, but sadly my backup was Garrard and he also sucked. LT laid the biggest egg of his career, DeAngelo Williams got decisively outplayed by J Stewart, Housh had yet another horrendous game, and the Chargers managed to put up 37 points without a single TD going to Antonio Gates. I am now 0-2 and my season is pretty much over as far as I can see.
Question 16: Long time subscriber. Love the...
Posted by Greg Austin | Sep. 12 at 07:12 AM
Marshall talk !! Im so high on B Marshall that the guy with Brady just took my offer of A Rodgers and D Driver for B Marshall. Now I have Burress, Jennings, Crayton and Marshall to catch with Romo at QB. Its all about timing. This guy has not made a trade in 10 yrs !! and he did not hesitate to take the offer.
Question 17: Who should I handcuff to...
Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Sep. 12 at 04:05 AM
Hello Ian, You wrote, "As poorly as the Rams played in week 1, I would expect their No. 2 tailback to be a significant player in a starting role." Is this what you meant, or did you mean, "I would NOT expect..." Thanks, as always!
Question 17: Who should I handcuff to...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Sep. 12 at 07:04 AM
Sorry for the typo. The Rams look pretty bad. I'm not even sure Steven Jackson is going to be effective for them. I wouldn't count on anything from Antonio Pittman. When you're playing the handcuff game, you want to focus on the backs on the goods teams.
Question 17: Who should I handcuff to...
Posted by DARREL OWEN | Sep. 12 at 02:55 PM
Should those of us that drafted Jackson look to trade him? As bad as the Rams look, is it likely I'll ever start Jackson over my other backs, Lynch and Earnest Graham? Also, what'd you see that made you rate him as the #3 RB on 9/1? I took him against my better judgment, and now I'm kicking myself.
Question 17: Who should I handcuff to...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Sep. 13 at 02:04 AM
I've got Jackson in one of my leagues. I'm not looking to trade him. I've still got him as a top-5 running back on my board. In a PPR format, he's got that added bonus of getting receiving yards and also getting the double credit of receiving points for the 3-4 balls he'll catch each week. I'm nervous about him, of course, but he could still turn out to be just fine. Certainly, I'm not interested in giving him away.