Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Nov. 06 at 04:12 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Which RB/WR duo will be better for the rest of this year: A. Peterson and M. Muhammad or S. Slaton and G. Jennings (PPR league)? Thanks!
MICHAEL HAMER [SPRINGFIELD, PA]
A:
On my board, I've got Peterson and Muhammad as being worth 258 points in the PPR format (from this point going forward). That's 18 more than Slaton/Jennings.
I'll definitely take the Peterson-Muhammad tandem this week. I think Peterson will have a big game against the Packers, while I'm kind of intrigued by Muhammad against Oakland. The Raiders have the one butt-kicker cornerback -- Asomugha -- which might cause fewer balls to be thrown to Steve Smith. That's kind of the way it played out last week in Oakland; Roddy White had a quiet game, while Michael Jenkins (their Muhammad guy) caught 2 TDs.
Question 2:
I am positioning myself for the playoffs. As I look to make waiver pick-ups and/or trades down the stretch, can you tell me which teams project to have the weakest opposition in weeks 14-16 against both the pass and the run?
Geoff Maleman [Los Angeles]
A:
Geoff Maleman is fast becoming one of the feared names in fantasy football. I see that you're leading our TD-only Mock Draft competition (that's the one where we select 12 readers and have them participate in a TD-only league, with each team playing every other team each week -- 176 games total over 16 weeks.
The information you requested appears below ...
EASIEST PASSING SCHEDULES IN WEEKS 14-16
All figures are per-game statistics -- the averages of the three defenses teams will face in weeks 14-16. Fantasy points based on 6 points for TDs and 1 point for every 10 yards.
Yds TDs Points
262 1.54 35.5 Kansas City
246 1.67 34.6 New England
244 1.67 34.4 St. Louis
258 1.42 34.3 San Francisco
256 1.42 34.1 Buffalo
249 1.50 33.9 Seattle
238 1.63 33.5 Oakland
236 1.63 33.3 Minnesota
246 1.38 32.9 Arizona
230 1.61 32.6 Indianapolis
246 1.33 32.6 New Orleans
236 1.46 32.3 Green Bay
238 1.29 31.6 NY Jets
224 1.46 31.2 Chicago
232 1.29 31.0 Tampa Bay
233 1.28 31.0 Atlanta
220 1.28 29.7 San Diego
220 1.28 29.6 Carolina
224 1.13 29.1 Miami
229 .92 28.4 Detroit
203 1.31 28.2 Washington
210 1.15 27.9 NY Giants
214 1.00 27.4 Houston
216 .96 27.4 Denver
209 1.06 27.3 Cleveland
205 1.13 27.2 Tennessee
210 1.03 27.1 Pittsburgh
204 1.04 26.7 Philadelphia
216 .83 26.6 Jacksonville
202 1.03 26.4 Baltimore
197 1.00 25.7 Dallas
200 .79 24.8 Cincinnati
EASIEST RUSHING SCHEDULES IN WEEKS 14-16
All figures are per-game statistics -- the averages of the three defenses teams will face in weeks 14-16. Fantasy points based on 6 points for TDs and 1 point for every 10 yards.
Yds TDs Points
146 1.12 21.4 San Diego
131 1.38 21.4 Miami
138 1.15 20.7 Indianapolis
132 1.13 19.9 Houston
127 1.13 19.5 Denver
121 1.17 19.1 New Orleans
124 1.08 18.9 Jacksonville
125 1.04 18.7 Minnesota
124 1.01 18.5 Cincinnati
122 .96 17.9 New England
115 1.00 17.5 Tennessee
107 1.08 17.2 Green Bay
109 1.04 17.1 NY Jets
112 .96 17.0 Seattle
123 .75 16.8 Chicago
113 .92 16.8 Oakland
110 .96 16.8 Arizona
107 1.00 16.7 San Francisco
114 .88 16.6 Kansas City
108 .88 16.0 Detroit
106 .88 15.9 St. Louis
104 .92 15.9 Buffalo
106 .86 15.8 Cleveland
109 .79 15.6 Tampa Bay
105 .72 14.8 Philadelphia
110 .58 14.5 Carolina
97 .61 13.4 Washington
98 .59 13.4 NY Giants
87 .63 12.5 Pittsburgh
86 .64 12.4 Baltimore
93 .50 12.2 Atlanta
73 .29 9.1 Dallas
Question 3:
Ian, in my keeper league, I have Tomlinson, Peterson, Chris Johnson and Hightower as my RB's, and can only start/keep 3. Our trading deadline is this week, and I just lost Orton and maybe Roethlisberger to injury, so I may need to trade for another QB. Which one should I try and move? I think Peterson and Johnson are the 2 best going forward. I'm hesitant to trade Hightower because he finally got an opportunity this week and put up points, plus he's young and in a great offense in a terrible division. That leaves Tomlinson, who's finally healthy, and the last thing I want is to watch him carry some other team to a championship. What do I do? Thanks, Mike Faxel
Mike Faxel [ORLAND PARK, IL]
A:
With it being a keeper league, I think you have to think about moving Tomlinson. He's 29, and I think it's clear that he's no longer that great, dominating one-team-man kind of running back he was in the past. In my opinion, a "great" running back is one of those rare talents who's going to be successful regardless of the talent around him. You can stick him on a bad team with a horrible offensive line, and he's still going to be productive -- the talent will still shine through. We've seen that with Tomlinson and Barry Sanders in the past. Both of those players signed just before their (bad) teams' first games, then went out and took the league by storm -- it didn't matter that they didn't even know the offense. Tomlinson used to be that kind of back, but he's not that kind of player anymore. He's not making people miss, breaking tackles and running away from people like he did in the past. He's the guy I would move. A word of warning, however: San Diego's schedule over the next eight weeks lines up to be incredibly soft -- partcularly for a running back. Five of the next six games are against teams with bottom-10 run defenses (including a pair against Kansas City, which has allowed 300-plus rushing yards twice this year). Tomlinson may be in decline, but he's got a chance to be the most productive running back in the league during the second half of the season.
Question 4:
Any insight on Deuce serving his 4 game suspension for violating the NFL substance abuse policy. Do you think that will happen this year, or is there an appeal process that will delay it until next year?
ERIC FEINGOLD [GARDEN CITY, NY]
A:
I hear that his appeal won't be heard until late this month, so McAllister should be able to fill more of a full-time type role for the next two weeks until Reggie Bush returns.
Question 5:
I have both Hightower and Slaton on one of my teams and need to trade one for a top WR as I get ready for my playoff run. I see that you currently have Hightower ranked higher for the rest of the year, but two of his best matchups are in the next two weeks before the fantasy playoffs start, and then his matchups are pretty tough the rest of the way. If you only take weeks 12-16 into consideration, who do you rate as the better RB for those weeks i mentioned between Hightower and Slaton?
Joe Cartan [SAN FRANCISCO]
A:
That's a really good point that you. When you look at the schedule, Slaton sure looks a lot better than Hightower for those weeks.
Arizona: weeks 12-16
Giants, at Eagles, Rams, Vikings, at Patriots
(all but one of those teams have very good run defenses)
Houston: weeks 12-16
at Browns, Jaguars, at Packers, Titans, at Raiders
(all but one of those teams are poor against the run)
So by that measure, you'd have to give the edge to Slaton. Arizona passes the ball so well that you would expect that Hightower would be almost matchup-proof -- defenses won't be keying on him, and he won't see any eight-man fronts. But the Cardinals have struggled in games against teams with good run defenses. As a team, Arizona ran for no more than 50 yards against the Jets, Cowboys and Panthers, and it ran for only 81 yards against Miami (which is also good against the run).
Question 6:
What do you make of Cutler? At the season's outset he seemed to be the next big thing at QB, but he has now strung together a month of mediocre football. Top keeper QB, or a source of worry?
MIKE [Denver]
A:
He's not quite there yet. He's still developing. And now that team has big problems with its defense and running game -- that will only make things harder for him, as he gets forced to do to much.
Eventually, however, I expect Cutler to develop into one of the league's very best quarterbacks. He's definitely got the arm, and he's working with a solid coaching staff. Nice receivers, too -- Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. I expect he'll be a top-5 quarterback on everybody's board next summer.
CUTLER, FIRST FOUR GAMES
319 YPG, 65 percent, 9 TDs, 4 interceptions
CUTLER, LAST FOUR GAMES
224 YPG, 59 percent, 6 TDs, 6 interceptions
Question 7:
I am considering the following trade. I trade M Barber for Steven Jackson straight up. The reason that this trade is so appealing to me is that Jackson has a pretty easy schedule weeks 15 & 16. He is also the better player from a dynasty perspective. I play in a PPR League and about the only downside to me is the injury factor. What are your thoughts?
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
As you point out, the schedule definitely favors Jackson. He's got home games those weeks against Seattle and San Francisco -- about as easy as it gets. Barber, on the other hand, has a murderer's row schedule in December -- Steelers, Giants, Ravens, Eagles. Jackson also is extremely productive a pass catcher; that really helps him in the PPR format.
Ultimately, the winner in this deal will be determined by durability. Both of these guys are trainwreck runners who take a lot of punishment. I don't think either will have a lengthy career.
Question 8:
Trade time: 3WR-2RB-1 flex. Giving up Vincent Jackson and Tim Hightower for Larry Fitzgerald. I would replace Hightower with LenDale or MJD. After picking up Hightower during the draft on your recommendation, i have sort of an emotional bond with him so maybe i'm not thinking clearly.
Adam Kovarik [WAUCONDA, IL]
A:
Let's just leave Jackson out of it for a minute. Hightower and Fitzgerald are the meat and potatoes of this deal, and with there being a flex position, they both can potentially fill the same spot -- they can be compared head-to-head. Hightower will score more touchdowns. Fitzgerald will continue to catch a half dozen passes per game, so he's more valuable in a PPR format. In a standard-type format (6 for TDs, 1 point for every 10 yards), these guys project to be very similar in value. So for that kind of league, I suppose you would bring in Jackson to be the tiebreaker -- you wouldn't want to give him away just to obtain a player of similar value.
Question 9:
At RB Forte and Jacobs have been consistent scorers for me but have tough matchups this week, while my backups D Williams and MJD have been feast or famine but face cupcake defenses. It seems an obvious choice to go with the matchups but every time I do it comes back to bite me. Where do you fall when it comes to playing matchups vs consistent scorers?
Eric Schmit [KEIZER, OR]
A:
I play the guys I think give me the best chance to win. Every week -- a combination of the player and the opponent he'll face.
In this case, I'd go with Forte as my No. 1 back. He's doing very well as a runner -- 80 yards per game -- and he's also a big part of their passing game. He's on pace to finish the year with 60 catches, and that gives him an additional 29 yards per game. I like running backs who can catch the ball. If their teams fall behind and move away from the run, they tend to catch more passes, making them pretty consistent. My one worry with Forte for this week is the quarterback change -- maybe Rex Grossman isn't as good at hooking up with him on those short dumpoff passes. Grossman quarterbacked half of that game last week and Forte caught a season-worst 1 pass for 5 yards.
Jacobs is the best of the other backs, but I would want no part of him playing at Philadelphia. The Eagles are very good against the run, and Jacobs is a time-share guy. Unlike Forte, he's not going to catch any passes. You'd really be putting your eggs in the Giants playing better than expected in that game and Jacobs punching in a touchdown or two. Maybe that would work out, but I'd prefer to go with any of the other guys.
I see DeAngelo Williams and Maurice Jones-Drew as pretty much interchangeable. Jones-Drew is the better receiver, but that team is really struggling. If the Lions hadn't just lost Dan Orlovsky, I'd be looking for them to win that game -- they still might. The Jaguars haven't really got it going this year -- they're horrible. Other than games against Indianapolis and Denver, who were lousy against the run, the Jaguars are down at 81 rushing yards per game. The Lions also have a bad run defense, but I'm leery of him. Other than the two big games against the Colts and Broncos, he's averaging 22 rushing yards (plus 25 rushing yards), with 3 TDs in six games.
With Williams, you lose the receiving production and aren't certain to get the 1- and 2-yard TDs, but the team is more likely to play well and put up good overall yards and points. They also face a bad run defense -- at Oakland.
Question 10:
I'm in a 12-team league where TDs are slightly more weighted than your standard rankings. I've been offered Witten and Braylon Edwards for Hightower and Driver. My other WRs are Fitzgerald and Marshall (we start 3) and my other RBs are Forte and Lynch (we start 2). I also don't have anything resembling a servicable TE (we start 1).
Jim Karlis [ARLINGTON HTS, IL]
A:
So the guy is willing to trade a tight end with a broken rib and the receiver who's leading the league in drops for a breakout rookie who's probably going to be a top-10 running back from this point going forward? That's awfully big of him. I wouldn't dignify the offer with a response.
Question 11:
What do you think of this dynasty keeper league trade. I have been offered Kellen Winslow for Lee Evans. I have Evans signed through 09 for $11 in 08 and $14 in 09. Winslow is signed through 2012 starting at $12 mill per season so 08 12mill 09 14 mill 2010 17mill 2011 20 mill 2012 24 mill. My other WRs are boldin, a johnson, jennings, engram and galloway, we start 3 wr's. i am taking in to effect the fact that i'll be losing gates @ the end of the year and not enuff money to resign him, gates is currently making $29 mill and in order for me to retain him it will cost me almost 36 mill. so should i go after winslow or wait for the offseason where gonzalez, clark, daniels, miller and some other TEs will be available?
Gary Wool [Philadelphia, PA]
A:
You're starting three wide receivers. That's the key number. Three times as many receivers are needed as starters -- so you're going to have to plan to have four good ones to account for byes, injuries, poor matchups and guys underperforming.
So no way would have I any interest in moving Evans for Winslow unless there was significant money issues that powered the deal.
And is Winslow even a top tight end? He hasn't been this year, and he's had a lot of issues with his knees. I expect he'll be at a new address for the 2009 season. I think the Browns are tired of him. Whether playing in a new offense turns Winslow into a real monster or not, I can't really say. But there are a lot of good tight ends out there, so I'm sure you'll find one who can adequately man the position for you.
Question 12:
Thanks again for the great information. I have been subscribing & buying the magazine for six years now and have never been disappointed. I have a question regarding my keeper league. In our league we have to give up a draft pick for the round the player was drafted the previous season. You have to give up your last round draft pick (19th round) for undrafted players...and in order to keep more than one player from the same round you have to give up that round and the previous round. Here are my players and the rounds they were selected. We are allowed to keep FOUR players. League setting are pretty standard besides getting a half a point per reception. Which players should I look into keeping?
(1) Peterson, A.
(2) Romo, T.
(3) Edwards, B.; Fitzgerald, L.; Johnson, A.
(5) Witten, J.
(7) Forte, M.
(8) Cutler, J.
(9) White, L.; Daniels, O.
(10) Taylor, C.
(11) Gonzalez, A.
(UNDRAFTED) New York Jets; Royal, E.; Avery, D.; Moore, M.; Rhodes, D.; Kasey, J.
John Evans [BRADENTON, FL]
A:
You're looking for "value" -- guys who are way better than where they were drafted. If we make the assumption that the Colts dump Marvin Harrison in the offseason -- and I think that's reasonable to expect -- than Gonzalez definitely will be one of your guys. Forte will be a top-10 pick next year; got to keep him. Both of the undrafted receivers make sense -- Eddie Royal and Donnie Avery. If you have a pick outside the top 5 overall, you'll also have to consider Adrian Peterson -- certainly you'd love to get him late in the first round of a draft. The other guy who catches by eye is Jay Cutler; you'll have to see what he does in the second half of the season -- he could play his way into consideration.
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Question 1: Which RB/WR duo will be...
Posted by DAMON DUHON | Nov. 06 at 04:52 AM
In a keeper league which QB would you rather have for the future D. McNabb or Eli Manning? Also have you ever considered highlighting/bold the big named players in your weekly updates for those of us who usually only have time to skim through. Thanks for the great work.
Question 1: Which RB/WR duo will be...
Posted by Brian Barrett | Nov. 06 at 11:11 AM
Hey Ian, if Stewart is out this week does D Williams become a better start than Hightower in a yardage/TD format? Thanks.
Question 1: Which RB/WR duo will be...
Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | Nov. 07 at 06:30 AM
Brian Barrett Why waste Ians time on a stupid question like who to start, D Williams or hightower.Look at fantasy weekly and you will see he would start Hightower this week by six backs over Willams.If you cant read then have someone help you.If you dont like the index pick then be a big boy and make your own pick.WAKEUP posted by Ben Hogevoll
Question 1: Which RB/WR duo will be...
Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | Nov. 08 at 12:38 AM
Hey Brian If you still cant read,revised index reports as of Sat. D williams has moved ahead of Hightower for a better start for week 10.If you have a problem with the index picks, start them both.
Question 1: Which RB/WR duo will be...
Posted by BOB MCKINLAY | Nov. 08 at 07:11 AM
He blows away the competition this week with nearly 450 yards and 3 TDs including a 93 yarder. Bye week was like a week of training camp to get hime back on track. Shanie is top QB coach and Cutler should get his 4,000 yards and 30 TDs. Only Warner and Brees may do better this season. Top 5 next year maybe better with Brady coming off surgery and Manning a year older.
Question 2: I am positioning myself for...
Posted by Geoff Maleman | Nov. 06 at 06:28 AM
A feared name in fantasy football, huh!? Thanks for the compliment, but much of the credit goes to you and FFI! You guys do a great job!!
Question 2: I am positioning myself for...
Posted by Amy Carter | Nov. 06 at 11:25 PM
Geoff Maleman? What, did someone else already take the name "McLovin?"
Question 9: At RB Forte and Jacobs...
Posted by Travis George | Nov. 09 at 04:14 AM
Wait, Detroit still might beat the Jags? Please don't ever forget that Detroit is terrible. I would never go into any game thinking they are going to win.
Question 12: Thanks again for the great...
Posted by Travis George | Nov. 09 at 04:16 AM
I never understood why people include people that have ZERO chance of being their keeper in keeper questions. Really? List NY Jets D, John Kasay, D. Rhodes, and M. Moore? Really? You would never choose any of those guys so why list them? Save us the trouble in the future and just leave them out of the question, Ian. Thanks.