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I’ll agree that there is a lot of movement in the Redrafter product – more than one might expect. On the downside (as you point out) that can be frustrating in regards to trades – maybe one week I’m high on a player, and the next week he drops 10-15 spots with no apparent reason. On the plus side, at least you know that I’m looking at all the players every week. I look at every team and every player every week – almost starting from scratch. Just because a guy is the No. 15 quarterback doesn’t mean he’s assured of being between 13 and 17 the next week.
The changes were even more severe last week – the largest of the season – because of the diminishing amount of the season that’s left. Normally, during the season, I tend to slot players based on what I think they’ll generally do. The team’s schedule doesn’t play a big factor. But now, there are only 4-5 weeks left in the season of most fantasy leagues. So for each team, I looked at their upcoming 4-5 games and twisted their numbers to fit in with how I feel they’ll do in those games. So there were some 20 percent tweaks on yards and touchdowns for some teams. Those big shifts then get distributed to each team’s players. And for this product, I’m making the assumption that the fantasy leagues will be done before week 17. So the Falcons don’t get credit for their week 17 game against St. Louis (the best game left on their schedule). Ditto for the Packers, who host Detroit in their final game.
Apologies if you feel the guys are hopping around too much. It’s an inexact science. I can assure you, however, that I am making a good faith effort to correctly slot each player each week.
In regards to the individual names you mentioned:
Kevin Smith: This guy has been playing surprisingly well. The Lions have made him more of a full-time back the last two weeks, and he’s catching lots of passes, which helps him in the PPR format. My No. 1 concern is his schedule – next three are against the Bucs, Titans and Vikings.
Maurice Jones-Drew: I’ve had a hard time with the Jaguars running game this year. They led the league in rushing in the 2006-2007 seasons, so I keep expecting them to get things going, but they’ve been a huge disappointment outside of a few big games against really bad run defenses. But Jacksonville has scored more touchdowns rushing than passing, ran the ball better than I expected against Tennessee, and three of their next five are against soft run defenses – Houston, Green Bay, Indianapolis.
Muhsin Muhammad: Jake Delhomme was playing well earlier in the year. Entering the team’s week 9 bye, he had thrown 2 TDs in four of five games. Over 240 yards in four of those five as well. I gave Delhomme a mulligan when he was horrible at Oakland in week 10, but he put up another clunker on Sunday against Detroit. He just doesn’t seem to have it right now, and I see a bunch of unfavorable matchups approaching on the schedule. Not so much Atlanta this week, but Delhomme is at Green Bay (No. 1 pass defense) in week 13, then faces Tampa Bay, and is at the Giants in week 16. All three of the team’s upcoming games are against defenses that are a lot better against the pass than run. So I transferred a lot of that passing production onto the running side. That’s why you see Delhomme, Steve Smith and Muhammad moving down. I wish I’d seen it sooner, but I didn’t.

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I think you can do better. How good was Cadillac Williams before his injury? He wasn't much of a pass catcher, so they were pulling him on third downs. And he's not real "pile pusher" inside runner, so they were lifting him at the goal line -- 10 TDs in 32 career games.

Now he's coming off a severe knee injury -- one that many thought might end his career. That could cost him some quickness and cutting ability, making him hardly even worthy of being on an NFL roster. He's not 100 percent healthy right now, so I don't think you'll see him do much of anything this year (maybe he gets 5 carries per game in the closing games). For next year, I think the best to hope for would be for Williams to earn a spot in a committee situation. I just don't see it.

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You've compiled a nice list of options. The long-awaited Deuce McAllister suspension could come down next week. That would knock him out for the year. With that in mind, I'd probably go with Pierre Thomas. Thomas is pretty good, and the Saints have kind of moved him past McAllister the last two weeks anyway. For the remainder of the year, you may see Thomas and Reggie Bush splitting time. There are a couple of soft run defense left on the New Orleans schedule. Green Bay on Monday, of course, but then Atlanta and Detroit in weeks 14 and 16.

The knee injury suffered by Brandon Jacobs doesn't appear to be a big deal, so Bradshaw looks like just a one-week guy -- I'm not even positive that he'll have a big role at Arizona. Peyton Hillis should be in the mix for Denver the rest of the way, but Selvin Young (groin) should return in week 13. So with HIllis, you're getting a guy who'll give you about 30-40 yards per week (and he should be their goal-line guy). The other option that could be worth a role of the dice is J.J. Arrington. Tim Hightower is struggling there, and Arrington might be a better fit with that offense -- catching passes and running draws out of passing formations. I think there's an outside chance Arrington finishes with more total yards than Hightower in the final six weeks of the season.

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In my eyes, there isn't much difference between these two runners. With Turner, you get a bruising inside runner with some breakaway speed. He's run for 971 yards and 9 TDs this year. He isn't a factor in the passing game (4 catches for 11 yards all year), which is a huge downer in a lot of fantasy formats. But I like that Turner's production is more predictable than Johnson's -- Turner tends to do very well against lesser defenses and in games that the Falcons will do well. You can sit him down for about four poor matchups per year (against tough run defenses), and in probably three of those games, that won't come back to bite you.

Johnson, on the other hand, is more of a hit-or-miss guy. A lot of his value is based on big plays and they don't use him at the goal line, so he's not as chartable. He'll underperform against some poor defenses, and he'll hit it big in some situations where you don't expect it. In comparision with Turner, his big advantage is as a pass catcher. Johnson has caught 30 passes for 203 yards this year, giving him 8 more total yards than Turner on the season.

Another factor with these guys is durability. I give the edge there to Turner. Johnson is a tall, lean runner -- 5-foot-11 and 200 pounds. I think he'll have probems staying healthy in future seasons.

In a keeper-type fantasy draft, I'm not sure which player I would select first -- Turner or Johnson -- so I wouldn't be interested in giving away a draft pick in a trade involving these players.

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Nice pickup. I think you'll do well with him. Keller has caught 14 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. Also dropped another touchdown in the Patriots game. I think he's going to be big-time tight end -- right up there with the likes of Gates, Witten, Cooley, Gonzalez and Dallas Clark. He's mobile and he has very good hands, and I think the Jets are going to make him a very big part of their offense in the upcoming years -- he might even be a solid producer in the final six weeks of this season. In the offseason, I think it would make sense for you to gamble on Keller being the real deal and cut loose Gates. Gates probably (but not for sure) will be better next season, but it will be nice to free up that cap space.

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I don't think you can second-guess yourself over that one. In his previous eight starts, he'd thrown only 6 TD passes, and half of those came against a really bad Denver defense. You are advised, however, that Cassel faces another Jets-style defense this week. While not quite as lopsided as New York, the Dolphins are very good against the run and not-so-good against the pass. They've allowed over twice as many touchdowns passing (12) as rushing (5). I expect another above-average game from Cassel.

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I think either 17 or 18 rounds would work fine. The appeal of an even number of rounds, I think, is that it balances the number of rounds that the draft order is reversed (the player pick first in nine of the rounds would also draft last in nine rounds). Such logic, of course, is flawed. If a team is drafting first in all odd-numbered rounds, all of those rounds come one round earlier than the even-numbered rounds (and hence are more valuable). That's why, if you push around the numbers, you'll see that those higher draft positions tend to be more valuable. Going with an odd number of rounds only enhances the advantage of selecting first. With a 17-round draft, not only does the guy with the No. 1 choice get to select first in eight odd-numbered rounds which each come earlier than the even-numbered rounds that follow them, he also gets to pick first in the final round (though granted, the value of the later rounds is far less than at the top of the draft). If you want to level the playing field -- erase some of the disparity -- one option would be to go with a 17-round draft draft, but not reverse the draft order in round 3. That is, draft order would go 1-12, 12-1, 12-1, 1-12, 12-1 and so on. That will cause some of your owners to then want to have that No. 12 draft spot -- getting to be the first owner to select three players.

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It would probably be fairer to say, "Connection with racially charged comments made by Rush Limbaugh," but I would say that Limbaugh criticized McNabb in a racial way. In essence, Limbaugh said that McNabb was being propped up and promoted by the media because of his race -- that McNabb wasn't as good as everyone thought. In so many words, he said that McNabb was overrated because of his skin color. Continuing on that line of reasoning, he was implying that the media and fans would be all over McNabb, criticizing him, if he were a white quarterback. I think that passes for criticism, doesn't it? It wouldn't make me feel good if Limbaugh said those things about me. Winding the clock back five years, by the way, Limbaugh's exact words were:

"I think what we've had here is a little social concern in the NFL. The media has been very desirous that a black quarterback do well. There is a little hope invested in McNabb, and he got a lot of credit for the performance of this team that he didn't deserve. The defense carried this team."

In hindsight, what Limbaugh should have said was something more along the lines of:

"I think McNabb is overrated. He's never been an accurate passer. That team has been to four straight NFC Championship games, but I think that's more due to the team's defense and the rest of the surrounding cast. I don't think he's one of the top 10 quarterbacks int he league."

Bringing in the idea of a media conspiracy to promote black quarterbacks was absurd. Had he not been fired, I wonder what other ridiculous things Limbaugh would have said.

In regards to this latest controversy, in which McNabb admitted that he didn't know games could end in ties, I'm shocked. It doesn't surprise me that some NFL players -- lesser players -- wouldn't know about the rule. I'll bet there are a surprising number of players in the league, for example, who have never heard of Bernie Kosar, Jim Kelly and Troy Aikman. I remember interviewing college players at the University of Washington in the late '80s, and it was apparent how little these guys (at least some of them) followed the game. They didn't spend their time watching football; they were more interested in playing and practicing themselves. But for McNabb -- a 10th-year quarterback -- to not know the rule, that's amazing. He's been in 11 career overtime games. And at no time in the last 10 years has he looked at the standings and noticed the "T" that comes after the "W" and the "L"? Unbelievable.

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