Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jan. 01 at 07:30 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Now that the season is over, I am just curious who your preliminary top 10 ranked guys may be for next year in a point per reception league. If you want to keep it a surprise until the magazine comes out, I understand! (even though I know a lot will change between now and then)
MICHAEL KOLTON [GREEN BAY, WI]
A:
In a Points Per Reception format, the following players come to mind as possibilities to be selected in the first two rounds in a 12-team league: Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Michael Turner, Roddy White, Marshawn Lynch, DeAngelo Williams, Steve Smith, Matt Forte, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Braylon Edwards, Terrell Owens, Marion Barber, Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Wes Welker, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, Clinton Portis.
That's 33 guys, so nine of those guys of course won't fit into those first two rounds. But you just asked for an initial top 10. Without thinking about it too much (and keeping in mind that it's a PPR format, which rewards receivers and hurts running backs like Adrian Peterson, DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner -- who don't catch many balls) I'll go with ...
Forte, D.Williams, Jones-Drew, A.Peterson, S.Jackson, A.Johnson, M.Turner, B.Westbrook, L.Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, S.Smith, P.Manning, R.White, Brees, S.Slaton.
That's 15 rather than 10. And no true No. 1. I don't see Forte as the sure-fire top pick, but he's productive, durable and catches a lot of balls. He'll be in the top 5 in the magazine.
Question 2:
Hello, the playoffs are here. We are doing a draft with six owners for the NFL playoffs, total points league, PPR with bonuses for 100-yard rushing games, 100-yard receiving games and 300-yard passing games. We are picking two playoff teams a piece, most points wins, so we are picking teams with the most potential to do well in the playoffs. So what would your ratings be, NFL playoff teams 1-12, for a fantasy draft like this? Thanks for your help.
Brian Harwood [Bowling Green, KY]
A:
I'll hang my hat on the Colts. I think they're going to win the whole thing. And if they do, they'll be far and away the best team fantasy-wise, because they will have played four games at the end of the deal. Of all the other teams in the tournament, the only other one to play more than two games would probably be the Giants or Panthers (if one of those teams wins the NFC, they'll play three games).
In terms of overall offensive production, I would order the team this way:
Colts, Giants, Panthers, Steelers, Titans, Falcons, Eagles, Chargers, Cardinals, Ravens, Vikings, Dolphins.
Question 3:
Which is a better keeper for next year: Reggie Bush or Derrick Ward? I'm scared by Bush's recklessness making him injury-prone, but I don't know what Ward will be doing next year (backup in NY still? start for someone else? for whom?). Which do you feel is a safer guy to keep for next year?
ADAM HOLTZ [ROCHESTER, MN]
A:
I would keep Bush. I'm not a Bush fan. I hate seeing him in all the TV commercials, when he's been such a disappointment as a pro. I don't like the behind-the-schenes pay shenanigans he pulled at Southern Cal, and I don't like the celebrity lifestyle he leads. But Bush catches a lot of passes, and that makes him a viable fantasy prospect in most formats -- very good in PPR. Unlike you, I don't see Bush as a reckless player. To me, reckless is a guy who takes unnecessary punishment and hits while fighting for extra yards -- Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Brandon Jacobs. Bush is a regular guy who's just had some injuries.
Ward, on the other hand, is just an ordinary Joe. He'll run hard, and he went over 1,000 yards with the Giants behind a very good offensive line. But he isn't next year's version of Michael Turner. Nobody is going to give him a big sack of money and ask him to be their bellcow running back.
Question 4:
Thanks for the help this year. Your site was one of the main reasons I won my championship this season. It's never too early to start thinking of next season, so:
-- Who are some deep sleepers for next year?
-- What players might find some new homes via free agency, and where might they go?
JODY SMITH [LEAGUE CITY, TX]
A:
There will be plenty of movement in the offseason. There always is. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin are high-profile receivers who want new contracts -- they could land in new locations. And no doubt a lot of high-profile players will be released in cap moves. I'll be surprised if Willis McGahee, Torry Holt or Plaxico Burress isn't moved. Will the Eagles dump Donovan McNabb? Is Terrell Owens sure to be with Dallas? We're just getting started.
A couple of free agent running backs come to mind -- Darren Sproles (San Diego) and Derrick Ward (NYG). But I don't see either of those backs making a big impact in 2009.
A couple of "sleeper" players who come to mind:
Anthony Gonzalez: Colts likely will dump Marvin Harrison in the offseason, making Gonzalez a top-15 receiver. Robert Meachem: He's been progressing slowly, but he's a talented guy in a very good offense. Jordy Nelson: He's really more of a 2010 guy -- Donald Driver should be good for another year -- but I like Nelson's long-term potential. Josh Morgan: I think he'll start for the 49ers in 2009 (who'll be their offensive coordinator or quarterback, and what kind of offense they'll run, I have no idea).
Question 5:
Ian thanks for great year. in two leagues won one and high scoreer in other. I am in a two man keeper. keepers count as first two round picks I have Forte, Chris Johnson, Boldin Cutler, R Moss, TO, I have been offered a third round pick for C Johnson. Do I keep Forte and Boldin and trade C J for another third round pick?
PETER MEYER [MERRILL, WI]
A:
I would. I would consider Forte to be your first-round pick. Take him out of the equation. And at that point, which would you rather have: Chris Johnson (who's a second-round type guy)? Or a third-round pick plus one of those other fine players? I'd take the extra player. Time will tell whether you protect Boldin, Cutler, Moss or TO. They're all possibilities right now, in my opinion.
Question 6:
I just wanted to say thank you for helping me win my fantasy league this year. I finished the season with a 3-game winning streak to barely snag the wild card spot, then swept through the playoffs, scoring over 90 pts in week 17 with the help of Steven Jackson, Drew Brees, and Calvin Johnson. I was heckled a bit when I drafted those guys with my first three picks as I followed your draft guide... but look who's laughing now! Thanks again and see you next year.
David Jung [SAN FRANCISCO, CA]
A:
Glad it worked out for you. We were very high on Brees and Calvin Johnson, so I imagine a lot of our subscribers drafted those guys. Too high, in hindsight, on Steve Jackson (who was probably your No. 1 pick), but at least he finished strongly at the end of the year.
Question 7:
Just thought I would let you know that I won the championship. I am in a sixteen team league with all cousins and one Uncle, so it's big time bragging rights all year long. Thanks a ton and have a great holidays!
DAVID BOZZELLI [INDIANAPOLIS, IN]
A:
Winning a 16-team league isn't easy. Congratulations. We may have to bring you in and put you on the payroll.
Question 8:
I don"t know who to write this to so I am sending a big thanks to everyone at the index. I won 2 championships this year both repeating as last years winner. I used your analysis, especially the updates are invaluable. Thanks again and I am looking forward to a three-peat.
BRIAN HALL [IRVINE, CA]
Question 9:
Hey Ian, No question here. Just a note of thanks for your great work throughout the season. Just wrapped my 2nd consecutive championship and #5 out of 15 yrs of using your products in a 12 team league. This year was a little difficult with Brady falling to me at #4. I also followed your top 30 (or was it 40?) and ended up not drafting a RB until round 5 and then took 5 in a row. Zigging while the others zagged still landed me Graham, Forte, and DeAngelo and Rodgers proved to be a bargain in round 10. Thanks for your insight. Excellent work, especially appreciate the Friday night updates.
Brian Barrett [BOULDER, CO]
A:
Glad to hear you had a good season. That's what we're shooting for. Have a terrific 2009.
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Question 1: Now that the season is...
Posted by Duane Stay | Jan. 02 at 08:56 AM
I know one thing. Braylon Edwards in a ppr league would assure you of last place.
My bad. I thought the reader was asking about a PPD league. -- Ian
Question 9: Hey Ian, No question here....
Posted by Travis George | Jan. 05 at 03:15 PM
Must be a slow mailbag considering half of it was patting yourself on the back and printing emails bragging about your work/guesses.